Loading ...Justin has an optimistic take on our new catcher:
To put it another way, if Hernandez can be an average-fielding catcher, and hit as projected, the boost in offense at catcher plus the defensive gains in the outfield can negate the loss of Adam Dunn.
Lots of “if”s there, of course…
Go read the entire piece. It’s worth your time.
Interesting. I’m not too excited about Hernandez but this is encouraging. He and Hannigan should be a vast improvement over last year, when catcher was usually a black hole on offense.
The catcher position will be definitely improved but I think he’s way off to assume that the catcher position and a better defensive player could match Dunn’s production. This isn’t meant to be a “I’m still in love with Adam Dunn and refuse to listen to anything else”….
I agreed with his assessment on a lot of things until he added that it could negate the loss of Dunn. It doesn’t take into account a lot of things that Dunn also brought to the table (OBP!!!) that Hernandez/Hanigan won’t provide. Also, Dunn at first and Votto in left probably would have been the best alignment for our team (getting Votto ready for the eventual shift)
Anyway that’s a useless gesture cuz Dunn’s long gone.
I don’t want this to sound like we can never win without Adam Dunn. I’m just saying that it’s a bit of a stretch to think that Hernandez/Hanigan and whoever plays left can match the overall production of Adam Dunn.
We can definitely still win without Dunn but barring some incredibly explosion from Hernandez/Hanigan, it’s going to come from somewhere else
FYI
PECOTA’s projections for Hernandez (trust me, you don’t want to see Hanigans)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/hernara02.php
Here’s Hernandez’s projections from a few other sources
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=918&position=C
CHONE and Bill James are much more optimistic than PECOTA or Marcel
The point, though, is that even though LF will be much less offensively productive w/out Dunn, the defense there presumes to be much better. So take that into account, added to the fact that Hernandez’ projections would be WAY better than what we got from the catcher position last year, and it almost makes up the difference. It’s not that Hernandez is awesome, it’s just that the catcher spot was an offensive black hole last year.
I’m actually starting to feel slightly optimistic about the offense.
You have to figure C, RF, and CF will be offensive upgrades over last year. (Yes, even w/ Taveras. That’s how bad CPat was last year) 1B, 2B, and 3B all figure to hold steady, and there’s reason to believe all three could improve. LF will be a decline, and SS is a big question mark. But if we could get decent production from a Dickerson/Gomes platoon, and AGon/Hairston can match last year’s weak SS output, the offense might not be so bad. We’re not going to be the 2005 offense, but with the improved pitching, who knows?
All the defensive numbers I’ve heard about rate Dunn as being about average in LF last year.
I hope I’m wrong, but I believe this team will have a tough time scoring as many runs as it did last year…and it was terrible last year.
And that doesn’t even go into the insanity of trying to build a “create runs” offense in a home run ball park.
I didn’t take Matt’s warning and looked at Pecota’s page on Hanigan. Why is Pecota so down on him? He’s been an OBP machine in the minors. Is there something I’m missing?
Bill, you might be correct about total runs being down. However a 4 to 2 victory counts the same as a 7 to 2 one. Depending on power, the way the team has in the past, makes for a very inconsistent offense, 10 runs one day 1 run the next type thing.
I think the the ‘09 version will be able to manufacture more runs maybe not making it more potent, but more consistent and consistency is a big thing in baseball success.
I still think the key to the line-up, offensively and defensively, will be A-Gon. Hope he starts off well a DH tonight.
First…about Hanigan’s minor league OBP…..it adjusts way down when compared to major leaguers…the “PECOTA” cards adjust his Minor League OBP way down…to more like the .285-.325 level. Also, need to remember, he’s not a young player…he’s a new player to the big leagues…he’s 28 years old and 28 year olds should know the strike zone better than younger players.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he upticks a bit on offense, but since he was already a primary defensive player and was in charge of handling pitchers, it doesn’t seem likely that will improve. And, then he will tire because he’s not young…
Replacing Dunn’s output isn’t even in the same ballpark…offense/defense combined. For the money, I’d rather they had signed Pudge.
Along Mark in CC’s point, the Reds don’t neccessarily need to improve their overall numbers, they just need to improve their consistency and their timing. They were near the top of the league in BA and HRs, but near the bottom in Runs and BA w RISP. I think alot of that can be attributed to the bottom of the order, which I think (hope) Hernandez will have the biggest impact offensively.
Statistical study after study shows the 4-2, 7-2 argument doesn’t hold water.
What the studies do show, is that if you score 7 wins you win more games. If you score 4 runs (in today’s game), you have a losing record.
If you only allow 2, you win more, too…but, you’ll lose more if only score 4 in case the bullpen blows up.
In the 60’s, where offense was suppressed, and teams rarely scored 7 runs, this argument would hold much more water…
Baseball, doesn’t want 4-2 games; they want 7-6 games….more offense, more fans.
I don’t know…28 seems young to me.
I agree that Hernandez will be an improvement over last year’s bottom of the order. BAtting Taveras/Hopper eighth with Hernandez seventh would help, too.
But, we’re really hurting in the middle and at the top of the order and for players with a good OBP.
To this date, a team’s OBP is still the best (easy and quick) indicator of offensive output. SLP has played a larger role than it had n recent years due to the rise of the power game, but I do think the power will start to drop with the steroids issue.
I think speed and defense will come back….but it’s not to that point yet.
28 is young to me, too, but I’m not playing baseball.
Prime production in baseball years is 28-31. The reason Chris Sabo “flamed” wasn’t that he flamed…it was that he was in his prime years when he joined the Reds and essentially did the usually baseball bell curve and started declining at age 31.
This takes us to the core of the Jim Bowden issue in Washington…they thought they would get four more years of development out of the player they signed….instead, he should’ve been close to major league ready.
Lots of “prospects” became has-beens just a few years ago when birthdates were actually checked out for many of the Dominican players. The development curve dissolved.
So, Hanigan is what he is…he won’t be getting any better…and, frankly, he’ll start the wheel of replacement level, serviceable catchers….but, he’ll be one without power.
Keep in mind…history shows that Hall of Famers reach the big leagues ages 20-23 (give the college players an extra year, but it hurts their counting stats). Good players reach by age 23-25. By 25, you hope for average; at 28, it’s bench.
Math on the Adam Dunn claim:
Based on my the article, the projected improvement at catcher, assuming average defense (which is probably overly optimistic…), was 20 runs. So, if Dunn’s loss is negated, the difference between Dunn’s projected offense+defense and the 2009 Reds’ offense+defense must be 20 or fewer runs.
According to CHONE, Dunn projects in 2009 as a +16 RAA hitter per 150g and a -13 RAA fielder per 150g. That makes him a tad above average as a player overall, +3 RAA. I’ll be the first to admit this seems like a low projection for a guy who’s been a favorite of mine for years, but it actually matches his salary pretty well and CHONE’s as good as it gets in terms of projections. CHONE is pretty aggressive about discounting home runs at GABP when projecting players in other parks, so that’s a big part of why Dunn’s rated so “low” on offense.
Here are some of the 2009 Reds LF options, on a per-season basis in left field:
Dickerson projects as a -15 run hitter and a +3 run fielder = -12 RAA left fielder, 15 runs below Dunn.
Gomes projects as a +7 run hitter and a -14 run fielder = -7 RAA left fielder, or 10 runs below Dunn.
Hairston projects as a -12 run hitter and a +4 run fielder = -8 RAA left fielder, or 11 runs below Dunn.
I still think CHONE is underestimating on Dunn, but even if you give him a subjective 5-run bump on offense the difference between the main LF candidates and Dunn is no worse than the projected improvement at catcher with Hernandez & Hanigan vs. the 2008 catchers.
-j
Our BA w/ RISP has been ridiculously bad. Between that and baserunning errors, we just don’t get an appropriate number of runs across the plate. Hopefully with the added speed and the better bottom of the order hitting we can get more runs. Unfortunately, our baserunning errors don’t look to be lessening.
So do baserunning errors lead to our havoc or opposition havoc?
Anyway, Rob Neyer references a spring training blog to day about the 44 worst contracts in baseball…
http://www.springtraining09.com/features/the-44-worst-contracts-in-base.php
We have two listed….Francisco Cordero and….Ramon Hernandez.
“They were near the top of the league in BA and HRs, but near the bottom in Runs and BA w RISP.”
2008 (ranks were found at ESPN’s MLB/NL stats page):
The Reds were 16th in the league in BA.
The Reds were 16th in the league in BA w RISP.
were 4th in the league in HR
were 8th in the league in BB
were 14th in the league in OBP
were 11th in the league in SLG
were 12th in the league in OPS
were 12th in the league in Runs
What I see:
BA w RISP was lowest in the league for Cincinnati because their team BA was lowest in the league. In general, each year, each individual team’s BA w RISP is very close to their overall BA.
I note that the national league BA last year was .260. The NL BA w RISP was also .260. 12 of the 16 teams BA w RISP were within 0.010 (+ or – ) of their overall BA. Playoff teams Milwaukee and LA had worse BA w RISP (LA was -0.011), Chicago had the same, and the Phillies had a better BA w RISP in the regular season than their overall BA (must have been why they won the World Series, /sarcastically.)
BA carries a signicant weight in the OBP, SLG, and OPS statistics. The Reds were in the better half in both HR and walks categories. Their overall OBP, SLG, and OPS each ranked better than dead last in the league because of their HR/walks and is why they didn’t finish last in the league in runs scored.
However, attaining a better BA at the cost of the other elements that contribute to OBP and SLG, will gain this team what?
2008:
The Cubs were 2nd in the league in BA.
The Cubs were 1st in the league in BA w RISP.
were 5th in the league in HR
were 1st in the league in BB
were 1st in the league in OBP
were 1st in the league in SLG
were 1st in the league in OPS, which is why they
were 1st in the league in Runs
Well The Ramon Hernandez bad contract is really on the Orioles.
“Our BA w/ RISP has been ridiculously bad. Between that and baserunning errors, we just don’t get an appropriate number of runs across the plate.”
That’s not where the correlation exists. Hopefully this looks right pasted here. I have the 16 NL clubs 2008 rank for Runs scored, OPS, BA, and BA 2 RISP.
As you can see, Runs and OPS correlate very closely to each other. The largest outlier is Pittsburgh ranked 9th in Runs but 13th in OPS. Other teams’ rank in runs is within 1-2 spots of their OPS.
BA RISP does not appear to correlate with run production. The Mets, Brewers, and Giants are the most notable examples of team whose BA w RISP was completely different than their run production.
Rank Runs OPS BA BA RISP
Cubs 1 1 2 1
Mets 2 4 4 11
Phillies 3 3 10 6
Cards 4 2 1 2
Marlins 5 5 11 5
Braves 6 7 3 4
Brewers 7 6 12 15
Rockies 8 8 6 10
Pirates 9 13 9 3
D-Backs 10 9 14 9
Astros 11 10 7 7
Reds 12 12 16 16
Dodgers 13 11 5 12
Nationals 14 16 13 14
Giants 15 15 8 8
Padres 16 14 15 13
Ramon Hernandez contract is now ours no matter who signed it initially since we deemed it desirable to have.
@GregD.. Good stats.. I was just going by my perception from watching them all year and didn’t actually take the time to look it up. I knew that they were terrible in BA w RISP, but thought they were better overall. It just seems that they have severely lacked “clutch” hitting. I defininately see your point that OPS is more important to runs scored b/c it incorporate more than BA and BA w RISP.
@Steve Price.. yeah, but Balt is paying a portion of it (I believe $2m).
Hernandez is listed with the Reds because they’re listing his current team. In each team’s opinion, the trade was a swap of bad contracts. $8M for Hernandez, $4M for Freel. Balt reportedly kicked in up to $2M, so each team is essentially paying $6M for their respective player.
Accepting the $6 million for Hernandez?
Was there a better way to spend the money?
Could we have found another catcher for $2 million and gotten more production by spending this money on someone else?
I think most would agree here that we wasted some money on some “veteran” players with slightly better than replacement performance, when it probably would’ve been better to have gotten an impact player for more money and signed the “slightly” lesser player for a whole lot less money.
I’ll quote Baseball Prospectus here from their Willy Taveras citation:
“In one of the winter’s biggest surprises, he (Taveras) got a two-year $6.25 million deal with the Reds; apparently their taste for quality in center was ruined by Corey Patterson.”
Compared to the lowest common denominator we got a deal? May be this is like being compared to the nanny show again…
Here’s BP on Hernandez…
“he set a new low in caught stealing percentage two years in a row…with a career worst 99 stolen bases allowed last year.”
also
“Camden Yards loves its righty hitters and might have camouflaged a more precipitous decline; in his three seasons at Orioles Park, Hernandez hit .291/.351/.485 with 31 home runs in 660 at bats, and on the road, he batted .238/.305/.370 with 16 home runs in 668 at bats.”
They then reference GAB, or ‘the gap”, and said the illusion may last a year or two longer, because of the homer influence of GAB.
May be should play Hanigan on the road?
I don’t disagree with you Steve.
I think the better option would have been to sign Zaun (who the Orioles eventually signed to replace Hernandez) for $1.5-$2M, platoon with Hanigan at Catcher, and not sign Taveras and let Freel/Dickerson platoon in CF. Since Freel would only start vs. LHP in this scenario, he’d be good bench depth on most days when opposing teams’ RHP are starting.
Greg…
Your idea would have saved us $6 mil (Taveras) over two years, kept fan favorites, and gotten us better production.