This is pretty funny, but I have to be the one Reds fan who is going to admit that I basically agree with the “spirit” of what Dusty was trying to say about walks. I think he was just articulating the feeling that walks can be/have become overrated. How many times did we hear people defend Adam Dunn’s 200 strikeouts by saying “Yeah, but he walked 100 times.” What the hell does one have to do with the other? Do they somehow cancel each other out? I want my leadoff guys getting on base – I want my cleanup guy swinging the damn bat.
(If Joe Morgan is batting 3rd and he walks 100 times in front of Bench, Foster and Perez, that’s one thing. When Dunn walks 100 times in front of…nobody, it’s a little different.)
This is essentially my problem with OPS – it makes no disctinction for where a guy bats in the order, who they’re surrounded by, and it implies that on-base and slugging are equally valuable. They’re not.
For a long time batting average may have been overrated, but these days I think it’s become UNDERrated – because of this facination with walks and OBP. It ain’t like they told us in little league – a walk is not as good as a hit. I think that’s what Dusty was basically getting at.
AriochRIP: I understand your point, but most of the Dunn fans on the site will agree that Dunn should be used in a way which makes bet use of his skills, rather than criticized for not being a typical cleanup hitter. There is certainly a place on any team for a guy who hits 40 HR and walks 100 times a year.
“I basically agree with the “spirit” of what Dusty was trying to say about walks. I think he was just articulating the feeling that walks can be/have become overrated.”
I don’t know the context of his comments with the Cubs. I agree that while with the Reds he has not articulated his thoughts well or been well represented in print media. Last year, his complaint about walks was in the context of people taking hittable strike 3 pitches. If I recall correctly, there was a specific incident with Votto in spring training.
“How many times did we hear people defend Adam Dunn’s 200 strikeouts by saying “Yeah, but he walked 100 times.” What the hell does one have to do with the other? Do they somehow cancel each other out?”
I’ve never heard that argument. The strikeout defense is
1) strikeouts are basically the same as any other out
2) strikeouts are better than double plays
3) fewer strikeouts does not equal more hits
“(If Joe Morgan is batting 3rd and he walks 100 times in front of Bench, Foster and Perez, that’s one thing. When Dunn walks 100 times in front of…nobody, it’s a little different.)”
That’s another argument. Dunn shouldn’t have been batting 5th and 6th so much the last three years. If he hits 2nd, 3rd or even 4th, his OBP is that much more meaningful.
“For a long time batting average may have been overrated, but these days I think it’s become UNDERrated – because of this facination with walks and OBP.”
Too many people equate walks and OBP. The reality is that AVG is a huge portion of an individual’s OBP. Also, hits are much more heavily weighted than walks in the OPS calculation.
1 walk in 1 plate appearance = 1.000 OPS
1 hit in 1 plate appearance = 2.000 OPS
Another benefit of walks or strikeouts is that they subtract at least three or four pitches from the pitch count, which counts for something in today’s current baseball environment. Pitchers are typically limited to a certain number of pitches per appearance and most teams don’t have that many good relievers.
And yes, that graphic is very well done (especially the part about keeping the defense on their toes and forcing them to make the play).
“Last year, his complaint about walks was in the context of people taking hittable strike 3 pitches.”
Exactly. Which is why every time I heard someone claim that Dunn has a good eye (based on his walks), I’d laugh. If he had a good eye, he wouldn’t strike out looking so often.
“How many times did we hear people defend Adam Dunn’s 200 strikeouts by saying “Yeah, but he walked 100 times.” What the hell does one have to do with the other? Do they somehow cancel each other out?”
“I’ve never heard that argument.”
I’m surprised – I’ve heard that one a million times.
“The strikeout defense is
1) strikeouts are basically the same as any other out
2) strikeouts are better than double plays
3) fewer strikeouts does not equal more hits”
Not sure I’d agree with #3. Putting the ball in play more often wouldn’t result in a few more hits?
“Too many people equate walks and OBP. The reality is that AVG is a huge portion of an individual’s OBP. Also, hits are much more heavily weighted than walks in the OPS calculation.
1 walk in 1 plate appearance = 1.000 OPS
1 hit in 1 plate appearance = 2.000 OPS”
I never thought of it this way. You’re basically saying that a hit counts for on-base AND slugging, right? Wheras a walk counts only for obp… That does give me a slightly different view, I admit.
Regarding strikeouts — they just aren’t that bad. Frustrating as hell, sure, but overall, they don’t cost much more than the average out. High-K guys rarely ground into double plays, which are crazy harmful.
Not sure I’d agree with #3. Putting the ball in play more often wouldn’t result in a few more hits?
This is true in little league, where the defenses are bad enough that any ball in play is likely to result in a good result. The thing in the major leagues is that taking big swings usually leads to two things: Strikeouts and HRs. One is much, much, much, much better than a single; the other is only a very, very, very, very tiny bit better than another kind of out.
It’s simply not possible to just “trade 100 strikeouts for 20 singles and 80 groundouts,” as much as we’d like it to be true.
I still find it extremely amusing, and frustrating, that fans continue to be angry at Dunn for Baker using his skills improperly.
Dunn’s not going to “learn” to do what Dusty, a non-power hitter, wanted him to do…and it wasn’t necessary.
It was Dusty’s job, as manager, to use his players to the best of their abilities to help the team.
he didn’t do that and criticized his team publicly for not being him….
Yes, as manager, he’s responsible for training his players; however, part of training is understanding the skill set and improving that production….not trying to get someone to set a “goal” that is not achievable or realistic.
It’s not exactly the kind of methodology that I teach in my management training classes….
GRF,
Hudson was never an option for the REDS…W/ so much 2009 coin, locked up in BP & AGon. Though I agree that, that kind of contract # is a little less than I’d expected.
But then again….The LAD were the perfect club for Hudson…I can see why he took the deal…Pair him up w/ Frucal…And you’ve got yourself one heck of a DP combo…And a legit 1-2 punch at the top of the line-up. (Hudson put up very respectable #’s in AZ from the LO…I would expect the same from the 2 hole, in LA.)
The LAD will be a much improved offensive & defensive club w/ those 2 in the fold(if both stay healthy)….and should be seen as the NL West favorites (assuming Manny ends-up back in LA), if they get even league average pitching out of that rebuilt staff.
SS Frucal
2B Hudson
RF Either
LF Ramirez
CF Kemp
3B Blake
1B Looney
C Martin
W/ C Ausmus, 3B DeWitt, OF Pierre, UTL Loretta and OF Delwyn Young coming off the bench…IMO, That’s a pretty damn descent line-up… W/ plenty of depth & versatility on the bench….I could easily see that line-up out producing the 700 runs the LAD put-up in 2008…And they should probably do so, by a wide margin.
(Oh, Joy!!! Those “left-coast”swings will continue to be a total suck-fest for the REDS!)
Yeah, if the Dodgers re-sign Manny that will be one hell of a lineup. They wouldn’t be terrible without him, really.
Hard to believe that squad was put together by the jackass who signed “Dusty” Pierre and the Ghost of Andruw Jones. (It helps that ownership was willing to eat both contracts and move onward and upward.)
Sure, a hit is as good as a walk and more valuable in OPS. But the problem is that it’s extremely hard to have a high OBP simply by swinging away. When you put the ball in play, you generally have about a 30% of getting to first. When you walk, you have a 100% chance. That’s why walks are so important. Some players have a pretty decent average, but because they never walk, they have a terrible OBP. Brandon Phillips, for instance.
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
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Hi-larious.
Be even funnier if Dusty was still in the Cubs’ dugout, though.
This is pretty funny, but I have to be the one Reds fan who is going to admit that I basically agree with the “spirit” of what Dusty was trying to say about walks. I think he was just articulating the feeling that walks can be/have become overrated. How many times did we hear people defend Adam Dunn’s 200 strikeouts by saying “Yeah, but he walked 100 times.” What the hell does one have to do with the other? Do they somehow cancel each other out? I want my leadoff guys getting on base – I want my cleanup guy swinging the damn bat.
(If Joe Morgan is batting 3rd and he walks 100 times in front of Bench, Foster and Perez, that’s one thing. When Dunn walks 100 times in front of…nobody, it’s a little different.)
This is essentially my problem with OPS – it makes no disctinction for where a guy bats in the order, who they’re surrounded by, and it implies that on-base and slugging are equally valuable. They’re not.
For a long time batting average may have been overrated, but these days I think it’s become UNDERrated – because of this facination with walks and OBP. It ain’t like they told us in little league – a walk is not as good as a hit. I think that’s what Dusty was basically getting at.
AriochRIP: I understand your point, but most of the Dunn fans on the site will agree that Dunn should be used in a way which makes bet use of his skills, rather than criticized for not being a typical cleanup hitter. There is certainly a place on any team for a guy who hits 40 HR and walks 100 times a year.
OH… and hilarious post guys
“I basically agree with the “spirit” of what Dusty was trying to say about walks. I think he was just articulating the feeling that walks can be/have become overrated.”
I don’t know the context of his comments with the Cubs. I agree that while with the Reds he has not articulated his thoughts well or been well represented in print media. Last year, his complaint about walks was in the context of people taking hittable strike 3 pitches. If I recall correctly, there was a specific incident with Votto in spring training.
“How many times did we hear people defend Adam Dunn’s 200 strikeouts by saying “Yeah, but he walked 100 times.” What the hell does one have to do with the other? Do they somehow cancel each other out?”
I’ve never heard that argument. The strikeout defense is
1) strikeouts are basically the same as any other out
2) strikeouts are better than double plays
3) fewer strikeouts does not equal more hits
“(If Joe Morgan is batting 3rd and he walks 100 times in front of Bench, Foster and Perez, that’s one thing. When Dunn walks 100 times in front of…nobody, it’s a little different.)”
That’s another argument. Dunn shouldn’t have been batting 5th and 6th so much the last three years. If he hits 2nd, 3rd or even 4th, his OBP is that much more meaningful.
“For a long time batting average may have been overrated, but these days I think it’s become UNDERrated – because of this facination with walks and OBP.”
Too many people equate walks and OBP. The reality is that AVG is a huge portion of an individual’s OBP. Also, hits are much more heavily weighted than walks in the OPS calculation.
1 walk in 1 plate appearance = 1.000 OPS
1 hit in 1 plate appearance = 2.000 OPS
To be technically accurate, I believe you need a no option and a flow line back to “swing away” under the decision box for “did you strike out”.
I may have spent too much time with these things…
Nice summary Greg.
Another benefit of walks or strikeouts is that they subtract at least three or four pitches from the pitch count, which counts for something in today’s current baseball environment. Pitchers are typically limited to a certain number of pitches per appearance and most teams don’t have that many good relievers.
And yes, that graphic is very well done (especially the part about keeping the defense on their toes and forcing them to make the play).
“Last year, his complaint about walks was in the context of people taking hittable strike 3 pitches.”
Exactly. Which is why every time I heard someone claim that Dunn has a good eye (based on his walks), I’d laugh. If he had a good eye, he wouldn’t strike out looking so often.
“How many times did we hear people defend Adam Dunn’s 200 strikeouts by saying “Yeah, but he walked 100 times.” What the hell does one have to do with the other? Do they somehow cancel each other out?”
“I’ve never heard that argument.”
I’m surprised – I’ve heard that one a million times.
“The strikeout defense is
1) strikeouts are basically the same as any other out
2) strikeouts are better than double plays
3) fewer strikeouts does not equal more hits”
Not sure I’d agree with #3. Putting the ball in play more often wouldn’t result in a few more hits?
“Too many people equate walks and OBP. The reality is that AVG is a huge portion of an individual’s OBP. Also, hits are much more heavily weighted than walks in the OPS calculation.
1 walk in 1 plate appearance = 1.000 OPS
1 hit in 1 plate appearance = 2.000 OPS”
I never thought of it this way. You’re basically saying that a hit counts for on-base AND slugging, right? Wheras a walk counts only for obp… That does give me a slightly different view, I admit.
I heart havoc
Regarding strikeouts — they just aren’t that bad. Frustrating as hell, sure, but overall, they don’t cost much more than the average out. High-K guys rarely ground into double plays, which are crazy harmful.
“I never thought of it this way. You’re basically saying that a hit counts for on-base AND slugging, right? Wheras a walk counts only for obp”
Yes.
avg/obp/slg.
A walk is .000/1.000/.000 (or 1.000OPS)
A hit is 1.000/1.000/1.000 (or 2.000OPS)
hitting flow chart…nice..
this is just like the algorithm flow charts I used to study in computer science.
3) fewer strikeouts does not equal more hits”
Not sure I’d agree with #3. Putting the ball in play more often wouldn’t result in a few more hits?
This is true in little league, where the defenses are bad enough that any ball in play is likely to result in a good result. The thing in the major leagues is that taking big swings usually leads to two things: Strikeouts and HRs. One is much, much, much, much better than a single; the other is only a very, very, very, very tiny bit better than another kind of out.
It’s simply not possible to just “trade 100 strikeouts for 20 singles and 80 groundouts,” as much as we’d like it to be true.
Hudson signed for 3.4 million with up to 4.6 in incentives.
Even with pick, I would have used the Weathers and Taveras money to make that move.
I still find it extremely amusing, and frustrating, that fans continue to be angry at Dunn for Baker using his skills improperly.
Dunn’s not going to “learn” to do what Dusty, a non-power hitter, wanted him to do…and it wasn’t necessary.
It was Dusty’s job, as manager, to use his players to the best of their abilities to help the team.
he didn’t do that and criticized his team publicly for not being him….
Yes, as manager, he’s responsible for training his players; however, part of training is understanding the skill set and improving that production….not trying to get someone to set a “goal” that is not achievable or realistic.
It’s not exactly the kind of methodology that I teach in my management training classes….
[...] Redleg Nation presents the Dusty Baker hitting flow chart. [...]
GRF,
Hudson was never an option for the REDS…W/ so much 2009 coin, locked up in BP & AGon. Though I agree that, that kind of contract # is a little less than I’d expected.
But then again….The LAD were the perfect club for Hudson…I can see why he took the deal…Pair him up w/ Frucal…And you’ve got yourself one heck of a DP combo…And a legit 1-2 punch at the top of the line-up. (Hudson put up very respectable #’s in AZ from the LO…I would expect the same from the 2 hole, in LA.)
The LAD will be a much improved offensive & defensive club w/ those 2 in the fold(if both stay healthy)….and should be seen as the NL West favorites (assuming Manny ends-up back in LA), if they get even league average pitching out of that rebuilt staff.
SS Frucal
2B Hudson
RF Either
LF Ramirez
CF Kemp
3B Blake
1B Looney
C Martin
W/ C Ausmus, 3B DeWitt, OF Pierre, UTL Loretta and OF Delwyn Young coming off the bench…IMO, That’s a pretty damn descent line-up… W/ plenty of depth & versatility on the bench….I could easily see that line-up out producing the 700 runs the LAD put-up in 2008…And they should probably do so, by a wide margin.
(Oh, Joy!!! Those “left-coast”swings will continue to be a total suck-fest for the REDS!)
Yeah, if the Dodgers re-sign Manny that will be one hell of a lineup. They wouldn’t be terrible without him, really.
Hard to believe that squad was put together by the jackass who signed “Dusty” Pierre and the Ghost of Andruw Jones. (It helps that ownership was willing to eat both contracts and move onward and upward.)
Sure, a hit is as good as a walk and more valuable in OPS. But the problem is that it’s extremely hard to have a high OBP simply by swinging away. When you put the ball in play, you generally have about a 30% of getting to first. When you walk, you have a 100% chance. That’s why walks are so important. Some players have a pretty decent average, but because they never walk, they have a terrible OBP. Brandon Phillips, for instance.