Loading ...From this AM’s Enquirer:
5 To Watch:
Alonso: First look at big league pitching
Harang: Be interesting to see how his condition and stuff is (UPDATE: He reported 20 lbs lighter than last year.)
Gonzalez: Be playing in live games for first time in 1 1/2 years
Bailey: The pressure is off.
Jacque Jones: Awful last year, but two years removed from .285 w/ 27 homers.Projected 25 man roster:
1B: Votto
2B: Phillips
SS: Alex Gonzalez
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
LF: Chris Dickerson
CF: Willy Taveras
RF: Jay Bruce
C: Ramon HernandezBench:
INF/OF Jerry Hairston
INF Jeff Keppinger
C Ryan Hanigan
OF Jacque Jones
OF Norris HopperRotation:
Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
BaileyBullpen:
Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Lincoln
Rhodes
Bray
Owings
For those that are familiar with Sarasota, John also has a top 11 memories of his time in Sarasota. It’s fairly amusing.
Eesh. There’s a TON of pressure on Bruce’s hitting in order for this Reds outfield to not be the worst offensive outfield in MLB this year…
I REALLY hope that extra outfield spot goes to Gomes and not Jones. With Dusty, though, I doubt it.
Totally agree about Gomes, nyc! (Unfortunately, I also totally agree about Dusty…)
I would really like to see Masset in the bullpen. Why would Owings ability to hit when him a bullpen spot? I rarely see a reliever hit.
I would guess the thought is Owings might be able to contribute as PH on days he is not pitching. Not saying I agree with that thinking, but it might be an explanation.
I hope Bailey can win the 5th spot, but if he doesn’t, I would rather see him in AAA pitching consistently than in a swing spot in the pen.
If Jones is on the 25 roster, he better have hit the cover off the ball in the spring.
Given Dickerson in LF and Gonzalez at SS as the starters, I see the bench as follows. Cota or Hanigan for the backup catcher. Hairston and Keppinger are locks for IFs. Then I see Gomes as the RH with pop of the bench, and then either Ward or Jones as the LH PH with pop.
As much as I like Hopper, the Taveras signing likely pushes him off the roster (whether with a different team or to the minors.) If Taveras is the speedy, RH, no power CFer, I don’t see Hopper’s role. Kind of like when Krivsky kept Castro as a backup SS when they already had the defensive minded Gonzalez at SS.
If you’re going with no offense in the OF, you need offense on the bench. If you’re going offense over defense in the OF, you need more defensive subs on the bench. I see Gomes or Ward getting one of the bench spots over Hopper.
How many 4th/5th OFs do the Reds have?
“How many 4th/5th OFs do the Reds have?”
Except for Bruce, all of them.
With that many 5th outfielders it sure leaves Dusty with a lot of Crappy Patterson’s this year
I can’t believe Gonzalez is being penciled in at SS. His hitting was sketchy even before the injury… he hasn’t had an AB in an awfully long time. In my opinion that job belongs to Kepp or Hairston or both. Gonzalez is unwanted baggage at this point, but he should be used as a utility player / defensive replacement.
Interesting OF picks or projections or guess-what-the-Reds will do.
The Reds OF is the biggest glaring weakness. They could easily have the worst OF in baseball and if Bruce is just average (which he could be at his age/experience or he could break out) the Reds will for sure have the worst OF in baseball
Looking at projections for the OF on the roster makes for a sad and interesting exercise.
PECOTA projected EQA for OF (or guys who could “play” an OF position)
115 Bruce
108 Gomes
108 Ward
103 Nix
94 Jones
90 Hairston
89 McDonald
88 Keppinger
87 Dickerson
74 Hopper
71 Tavaras
66 Stubbs
I couldn’t find projections for Jones
Gomes will be 28, never played a full season, has a career OPS+ of 105 and plays average defense.
I don’t see a reason, with how little the Reds have to choose from he shouldn’t be given as much chance as anyone other than Bruce to win a roster spot.
The only fun I’m going to have this year is watching to see if Tavaras can be as bad as Patterson.
With no player other than Bruce on this list being of starter quality I wondered about split
Hits Lefties
Gomes
Keppinger
Hopper
Hits Righties
Ward
Nix (can’t hit lefties at all)
Jones
Dickerson
No Split (hits or doesn’t hit both)
Hairson
Taveras
I know this is going to sound crazy but would would be wrong with the following as a starting OF
RF Bruce
CF Hopper (vs L) / Nix (vs R)
LF Gomes (vs L) / Ward (vs R)
I know, I know, wouldn’t happen
A couple corrections to my last post.
Those are Zips OPS+ projections not PECOTA EQA
and I did find a projections for Jones
Fay’s article says Votto has a shot at 100 RBIs. If Votto gets 100 RBIs on this team, with the pathetic table-setting he’s going to have, he’ll be the second best 1Bman in the NL.
He reported 20 lbs lighter than last year.
Hmmmm…..
If Bailey doesn’t cut it, time to get rid of him.
Harang reported 20 pounds lighter, not Bailey. Bailey did report 10 pounds lighter though management has never been concerned about his weight.
Hopefully the 10 lbs that Homer has lost is the sizable chip on his shoulder he reportedly had last season from being sent back down to AAA for another year.
“He’s old, sucks, but is X years removed from an okay season” is the story of the last couple decades for the Reds.
Jones is toast.
The hot stove league isn’t over, either. I’m anticipating moves by a lot of teams after the WBC is over. WJ will be shopping around. Remember, his best trade as Cardinal GM (Edmonds in 2000) was completed towards the end of spring training.
That was an interesting trade (Edmonds acquired for Bottenfield and Kennedy)…I have to wonder if Jocketty knew that Bottenfield was damaged.
Edmonds was coming off an injury year at age 29 (not a good time, and theoretically past prime for a player of his ilk), then he rolled off about five of his very best seasons…some outstanding baseball.
Meanwhile, Bottenfield, a lifelong reliever, had been thrust into the starting rotation at age 30, went 18-7 with a 3.91 ERA, pitching 190 innings….the most of his career (he had hurled 133 the year before and hadn’t pitched more than 84 for five years prior)…
Bottenfield goes bottoms up the next year (8-10, 5.40) and is out of baseball one year later.
Kennedy was young…his rookie season came the year after the trade and was a solid starting second baseman for the Angels.
Great trade by Jocketty….great info from the scouting staff?
But who would our Bottenfield be ? And who would the OF be ?
I like Alex Rios, wishful thinking.
Steve, TLR deserves a lot of credit, in my opinion anyway, for getting what he got out of Edmonds. That guy is a package. Some players are hated by opponents, but adored by their own teammates. Edmonds was the type that was hated by his own team.
Remember the ‘98 offseason? Bowden came within an eyelash of trading Tomko to the Angels for Edmonds.
Targeting Edmonds for a rebound was a sharp move. Shipping out Bottenfield, an aging journeyman with one decent year, was an obvious one.
Arroyo, I think, is the closest analogue. But he’s twice the pitcher Bottenfield ever was. The prior guys weren’t good at this.
Hopper has options, similar to AGon he hasn’t played in nearly a year, and his skill set is similar to Hairston. Hello L’ville.
I am actually looking forward to Micah Owings winning a spot, and I’m rooting for him as a number 5. I was impressed watching many of his starts with Arizona. Not number one or number two impressed, but certainly a number 5. And with the dearth of power on this team, I want his bat on the bench (our best pinch hitter might be our number 5 starter, geez.).
Owings’ bat could be put to better use in the ‘pen. He could pinch hit, come in to pitch and then hit again if his spot came around in time. Next to Phillips and EE he might be the most potent RH hitter in camp.
No disrespect intended to Micah Owings….but, isn’t this a shame that this is even being discussed?
question about Owings.
why is he not in the mix for a starter position from almost everything I’ve read??
I the only advantage of Owings in the pen if he doesn’t win the 5th spot in the rotation is that if someone gets out of the game early, he can pitch long relief and you don’t have to worry about pinch hitting for him after an inning or 2.
I am disgusted that Jones is in discussion of making the team. I see him no more than an AAA veteran for injury relief, but I am not even sure he has value for that. Am I guessing that since Owings is in the pen (in the projection), he is the RH pinch hitter instead of Gomes? because he has more power than anyone else (maybe combined) on the bench.
comment 15 – why cut Bailey loose if he doesn’t make the team? He is TWENTY-TWO years old! He is still cheap, still has time to improve, and not even close to his prime years. Unless he is a major distraction and headcase in the locker room, there is no need to give up on him at this point. There are other viable pitchers (Owings) that can pitch in that spot. Bailey hasn’t had a year to spend in one place without jumping from league to league. I don’t see it as a problem if they put him L’Ville and let him regain his stuff that made him in the first place.
Mike, I don’t think anyone is saying he’s not in the starter mix. The Enquirer beat writer speculates that Bailey will win the #5 spot, so we’re discussing the scenario of Owings in the bullpen. I think Owings, Bailey, Thompson, and probably Maloney are all in the mix for the #5 starters spot.
Interesting note, looking at Owings stats…he beaned 12 batters last year in 104 innings. That’s the same number of guys Brandon Webb hit in 226 innings. Or the same number that Danny Haren and Randy Johnson hit combined in 400 innings.
Looking at the Reds starting 4 last year, Cueto and Volquez EACH plunked 14 batters. Harang and Arroyo combined to bean 8 batters.
With Volquez, Cueto, and Owings, at least the other team won’t get comfortable in the batters box.
Fay’s article says Votto has a shot at 100 RBIs. If Votto gets 100 RBIs on this team, with the pathetic table-setting he’s going to have, he’ll be the second best 1Bman in the NL.
I’ll put it this way: If Joey Votto knocks in 100 runs for this team, he will have set the ML record for HR in a season.
Trading Bottenfield after he went 18-7, 3.97 ERA, with bad peripherals (opponents hit .270 off him, 1.50 WHIP, more BB than K after the all-star break) was brilliant. His season LOOKED good but had a ton of warning flags in it.
Trading FOR Edmonds after his one bad year was also brilliant.
It was just a perfect buy-low, sell-high.
I keep waiting for Jocketty to pull off that type of move here. So far, though, it has been Krivsky that’s been better at that type of thing (Arroyo, Phillips, Hamilton).
Gomes has a chance to be a good buy-low guy, I think. He’s also only 28. I really hope he gets a good chance. His minor league numbers show some serious power/OBP potential. Maybe in the Rob Deer mold.
Gomes (minors) – .272/.398/.529
Name me one other current Red who has a chance of having an OBP more than 100 points higher than his batting average? Is there anyone?
By the way, just for comparison, check this out. (I know minor league numbers don’t tell you everything, but they do tell you something…)
Gomes (minors) – .272/.398/.529
Bruce (minors) – .308/.366/.555
Votto (minors) – .289/.385/.476
Phillips (minors) – .274/.339/.418
EE (minors) – .291/.352/.451
I’d really like to see Gomes get 300+ AB’s this year. Let’s find out what he can do. I’m optimistic.
Gomes has a chance to be a good buy-low guy … His minor league numbers show some serious power/OBP potential. Maybe in the Rob Deer mold.
Those two are more alike than you may realize (but not quite in a good way):
Deer: .220/.324/.442 (109 OPS+)
Gomes: .235/.329/.455 (105 OPS+)
Hey, Rob Deer was a useful player. I’ll take a 109 OPS+.