Many baseball execs (ex. Jocketty) don’t like sabermetric analysis, and would rather depend on scouts.

OK…I think you need both…scouts for physical and mechanical feedback, analysis for looking at the past and comparing the individuals to computer modules for projections.

Good scouts (and coaches) need to give advice as to whether this guy can or cannot be developed…and they need to make that determination before the cat is out of the bag.

So…the question becomes is Bailey done?

That is how you get maximum bang for limited buck.

Signing Cordero (while he’s a good reliever) was not this.

Signing Gomes might be.

I just want to see some moves that show that the Reds are finding good value b/c if we’re going to be at $75 or $80 million every year, battling the Cubs at over $100 million, we HAVE to be getting better value per dollar than they are. Otherwise we might as well pack it in and just be the Marlins.

Maybe for once they get a plan. I’m not convinced there ever was a ’speed and defense’ plan even conceived until it was clear they weren’t going to open up the purse for a slugger and AFTER they acquired Taveras.

I am a little tired of ‘the plan du jour’ and the results. Last season you have Dunn and Griffey in the corners and this season it’s all about speed and defense. Wigginton might not be a difference maker all too himself, but a guy who can play 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and LF who could have been had for 2/6 mil certainly opens up some possibilites. If we are convinced that Alonso is the future at first, why not put him there for the next year (or two if needed) until Alonso is ready and shift Votto to LF, which is where he may end up playing anyway. Or he could split time with E5 between third and LF to see if Edwin could handle the OF. He’s also good to have to come off the bench late, especially in double switch opportunities because of his versatility. Heck, his presence allows for the possibility of Brandon to play SS, not that I’m convinced that’s best, but it keeps it in play. Worse case, the Reds are out of the hunt early but because of his contract he could be shipped out to a contender who needs bench help and we bag a prospect or two for our ‘big year’ of 2010.

It isn’t about if Wiggy is a difference maker–it’s about trying to get better now and in 2010, and I think at least making a real effort for a guy like this would have helped.

If the model is pitching, defense and speed he definitiely doesn’t fit.

Maybe for once they stick to the plan.

I’m not sure how much that spike in attendance would offset his salary, but this team as currently constructed is going to struggle mightily at the gate. I suspect that would be the case even if they exceed expectations.

As spring training approaches, and with the level of talent available, I feel salaries will increase, not decline, for guys such as Ramirez, Abreu, and Dunn.

There’s an story on Baseball Prospectus today (subscriber side, I believe) that talks about these guys being available, and the market will soon become the player’s market, and that there would be a backlash against “small market” teams that did not sign available “surplus” talent.

They give evidence, going back to the real great depression (1929) that showed the teams that fell in ticket sales were the small market teams that decided they couldn’t afford to get talent, while the teams that invested maintained or grew their attendance. They listed the players available in the minors (players could be bought from minor league teams then), and many were good matches for the types of players available now…corner outfielders who could really hit but had other limitations.

What was indicated was that the fans rebelled against the franchises and s-t-a-y-e-d away because the team didn’t give the fans a reason to come.

History always seems to repeat itself…

He wasn’t going to play 1b, he wasn’t going to play 3b, he can’t play LF and obviously there’s no DH in the National League.

He’s also been a predominantly 6-hole hitter although I guess he would have been a cleanup for the Reds.

Meanwhile, as many have pointed out, we’re paying more for replacement level talent who’ll do more harm than good.