Loading ...John Erardi has an interesting post here about the Reds 2009 defense, and whether it’s as good as we’re being told. It’s a great question, and one we’ve been asking for as long as the Reds have been trying to sell us this “speed and defense” line.
I’m not at all convinced that the Reds defense is going to be better…and even if it is better, I’m skeptical that it would be good enough to make up for the crappier offense this year.
I hope the Reds are right.
I think the defense will indeed be better than last year. Its not going to be good enough to be better than average though, much less something that is ‘best in the league esque’.
If it’s clearly obvious to you, me, 90% of REDS fans/bloggers and now even main-stream media types that it will be a struggle for this team to compete, AS-IS…How is it that BobC, Walt & Douche Bag still seem to think they can sell this roster as a contender w/ the new & improved ‘”Speed & Defense” line-up???
We all know that speed & defense can’t overcome a staff that has a record of being one of the worst in the NL/MLB in HR’s surrendered…75-100 runs is a HUGE run differential to flip in 1yr w/ that kind of staff…No matter how good your defense is…It just can’t be done w/o adding some offensive punch to that “speed & defense” line-up.
And for that matter….How is it that no media type has the nads to call WJ out for not addressing his own stated #1 off-season need. The Right RHB run-producer to put btwn Bruce & Votto.
Had he acquired that piece of the puzzle 1st, none of these other moves (or non-moves) would have been questioned.
That, I think, would seem to be a good topic for Hal McCoy to tackle…He’s untouchable…He’s a legend in his own time, in the CIN area. He could get away w/ calling it like it is….and he might even buy back some respectability after his Gyno reference column.
I’m not even convinced that the defense is going to be better….even if it is, it won’t be dramatically better, other than in LF. The pitching may be a little better (Volquez worse, Cueto/Harang/5th starter better, Arroyo/bullpen the same); but again, not enough to overcome the offensive shortcomings.
Even as John says, if you get the offensive improvement that could come with all the stars aligning, it won’t be enough.
“Had he acquired that piece of the puzzle 1st, none of these other moves (or non-moves) would have been questioned.”
I can only laugh. What player fits that description? Mention names. Then, tell us the cost of getting said player. Are you one of these people who believe one-year rentals are worth Bailey, Cueto, or other upside minors prospects for the mirage of actually being a contender with this club?
Ah, to hell with logic. GET HIM, whoever him might be.
I’m still trying to figure out what exactly is the absolutely hurry about 2009 when it’s been so obvious since last summer that there were too many holes to fill to be where this organization needs to be.
But hey, GET HIM! Sheesh.
Personally, I would be happy with something around .500 in a transition year, but, I do expect more.
Why? The defense will be mightly improved. The defense won’t be somewhat improved, it will be mightly improved.
First, let’s take catcher out of the equation. A catcher’s defense is predicated upon the other 8 guys allowing a man on. If the other 8 guys make put outs at 71% then it mitigates passed balls and CS%.
Second, Gonzalez, even at half speed, is far better than Keppinger/Hairston as SS. Keppinger’s UZR/150 was -20.9. Hairston’s was -16.8. In 2007, a down year defensively for AGon, his UZR/150 was 5.4 which is a 20 point swing.
Third, Patterson, according to UZR/150 was good, but far from great defensively. His UZR/150 was -.02. Taveras, prior to going to Colorado, had an average UZR/150 of 12.
Fourth, Adam Dunn being absent from LF is probably a three win improvement in and of itself, according to Fangraphs.
So, there is absolutely no reason to believe this team doesn’t have the capability to be far better defensively.
The question really is whether players will play at levels they are capable of playing. That’s the biggest question, but it doesn’t have anything to do with assembling the team on paper.
I think Bob, Walt, and Dusty along with the people drinking their speed-colored Kool-Aid believe that this offense is just going to be a lean, mean run manufacturing machine. Whsssssh! There went Willy!!!
3B: Arguably the worst in the league.
SS: If it’s Gonz, how well does he come back from injury? If he can’t do it, probably worst in the league (either Kepp or Hairston).
2B: Great
1B: Good
CF: Willy isn’t as good as Patterson
Corners: This will be a big mark of improvement for our D. Getting Griffey (absolute worst) and Dunn (one of the worst) will do wonders.
All-in, I’m not seeing anything near average, let alone good.
No way Tavares is better than Patterson defensively. Watch some of the funky angles Willy will take on balls in the outfield. Doesn’t matter which park he is in. He uses his speed to compensate for his mistakes, and since he is in a strange position when he catches the ball he can’t effectively use the little arm which he has to any real effect. Now, of course I’m not defending Corey, but for anyone who thinks this is a defensive upgrade you are mistaken.
Left and right fields should be improved, until Gomes is playing. However, losing the offense those positions provided last year would require gold-glove caliber defenders to compensate for.
First, second, and third are unchanged. Catcher will be worse (don’t believe the hype about Hernandez). If Agon is Agon shortstop should be improved, otherwise it will be unchanged from last year.
Where is the movement to speed and defense? The only improvements to D was done by subtraction.
3B: Arguably the worst in the league.
While we all know EE’s shortcomings, I would say that Ramirez, Reynolds, and Cantu are worse NL 2Bmen. Even more so if you overlook EE’s horrible April last year.
Is Taveras better than Patterson, probably not but not far off. Is he better than Jay Bruce who spent half the season there, yes.
Is Jay Bruce going to be better than the Griffey of ‘08 – Yes
Will anybody be better than Dunn – yes.
So outfield is better
Votto should be better at first, he wasn’t very good the first half and improved, so overall it should be better.
Phillips is Phillips.
Gonzo and Hairston better than Hairston and Keppinger. If Gonzo is not there then it is a wash
EE is better if Gonzo is there if not it is not worse.
Hernandez and Hanigan will be better as a group than the three last year. Didn’t say great but it will be better.
So outfield is better, 1B is better, C is better, SS is probably better and every thing else no worse than the same. So the defense will be better.
The theory that the the offense is going to be crappier just isn’t correct. It will be different but that doesn’t mean worse. In fact they haven’t won with it it is time for different.
Corners: This will be a big mark of improvement for our D. Getting Griffey (absolute worst) and Dunn (one of the worst) will do wonders.
Bruce has to make some improvements defensively. I believe that he can but I was shocked that he committed eleven errors last season.
The theory that the the offense is going to be crappier just isn’t correct. It will be different but that doesn’t mean worse. In fact they haven’t won with it it is time for different.
There may be some truth to that since the team OBP was so lousy last year. I know it won’t be any better this season but I can’t see how it could be much worse either.
So outfield is better, 1B is better, C is better, SS is probably better and every thing else no worse than the same. So the defense will be better.
I don’t think C is better defensively. Bako, for all his offensive shortcomings, was a strong defensive catcher, and Ross was a strong defensive catcher.
“The theory that the the offense is going to be crappier just isn’t correct. It will be different but that doesn’t mean worse. In fact they haven’t won with it it is time for different.”
I disagree that the “type” of offense will help you win more or less games. It’s all about volume.
2008 actual splits by lineup position
oba slg ops
1 326 423 749
2 305 360 665
3 332 429 761
4 331 458 789
5 363 504 867
6 335 456 791
7 344 443 787
8 326 362 688
9 209 244 453
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
This website lineup/runs estimator projects the 2008 batting statistics by batting order to average 4.407 R/G = 713.9 runs
The Reds actual 2008 numbers were 4.346 = 704 runs
So at this one data point, the model does a really good estimation.
I went a step further and took the Reds projected regular lineup of nine players (I started this before the A-Gon announcement, so I have Hairston as the SS.) For each player I used their career average, except I used
- Phillips Cincinnati OPS only, ignored Cle numbers
- Dickerson’s minor league average
- the same OPS in the pitcher spot as 2008
- I guessed at Baker’s lineup – the lineup tool suggests the best lineup has Dickerson’s stats batting 1st and Taveras batting 9th behind the pitcher.
obp slg
WT 331 337
JH 330 370
JV 367 511
BP 323 453
JB 314 453
EE 346 455
CD 363 415
RH 326 421
Pitcher 209 244
Average 4.432 R/G = 718 runs or only 4.1 more runs per game than the 2008 splits projected. The main, obvious note is that this was only the career average of the starting 8. The starting 8 won’t all play 162 games. In most cases, the positional averages will be brought down by using backup/utility/AAA players. AND, Taveras HAS to revert back to at least his career average. An OBP/SLG/OPS that he had last year will absolutely deflate this team’s offensive potential.
Some scenarios:
Votto-Phillips-Bruce-Edwin all match their career “best” while everyone else puts up their career average
JV 368 548
BP 331 485
JB 360 540 (an assumption looking at milb #’s)
EE 359 473
Average 4.773 R/G = 773.2 runs. That’s an offense that can compete in this division IF the pitching improves.
Only Bruce puts up his best/everyone else their career average:
Average 4.635 R/G = 750.9 runs
“Average 4.432 R/G = 718 runs or only 4.1 more runs per game than the 2008 splits projected”
OOPS, already caught an error. Should be only 4.1 more runs for the season not per game. My 2009 by position estimate projects to only 4 more runs for the entire season over what the 2008 calculation.
Nice work, GregD. I love this stuff.
Thanks Greg, awesome stuff.
Good stuff, Greg, indeed. Interesting.
Erardi’s post got me thinking back to the 1999 team, and the Griffey trade… man I was excited about the team back then.
Didn’t Seattle really want Pokey Reese? How much better would that trade have turned out if we had simply given then Pokey in place of Cameron?
Cameron would’ve looked mighty nice in CF for the past decade… of course, that assumes that Griffey would’ve been willing to shift to RF right away, which isn’t the case… anyway, I really like Cameron. GREAT defender, and he does a lot on offense too.
In somewhat related news, the Reds just avoided arbitration and signed David Weathers to a one-year, $3.5m contract with a club option for the following year at $3.7m and a buy-out of $400k.
All the info here:
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2009/01/david_weathers.html
Wow… $3.9 million for one season of David Weathers… what a bummer that he accepted arbitration! (His agent definitely advised him well on that one.)
Cameron would’ve looked mighty nice in CF for the past decade… of course, that assumes that Griffey would’ve been willing to shift to RF right away, which isn’t the case… anyway, I really like Cameron. GREAT defender, and he does a lot on offense too.
…and eventually 1B as the leg issues began to crop up and the emergence of Kearns and Dunn. It would have afforded the Reds of being able to use someone as trade bait for decent starting pitching during that era. Oh, hind sight is a wonderful thing.
Boy, I really would have rather given that 3.9 to Affeldt and avoided then Rhodes signing (understaning that he may not have signed anyway if the Giants really promised him the opportunity to start).
Mr. Redlegs, the problem I see is that the “need” for the RHB was their self identified need. Given their total failure to address it, as well as the drop in the corner outfielder market in general, it suggests the front office really misread market. If you say something is your biggest need and you do not address it, that is an issue.
As to the issue of whether our defense will be better, my guess is that it will be marginally so given the subtraction of Griffey and Dunn. But I seriously doubt it will be meaningfully better better given the shortcomings of Tavears and Hernandez and the fact Gonzalez’s defense was not so outstanding to begin with and the injury he is coming off of. All the talk from the front office that we are “better up the middle” is frankly annoying to me, since we apparently are supposed to take their word for it and ignore all data to the contrary.
GRF, my biggest need is a new car. Question is, what will it cost? Or, how much am I willing to pay according to my budget?
GRF – yes, the biggest need was a RHB. However, the team had a lot of other needs. They could have gone all out for that one player and had lots of other holes. All in all, that isn’t the smartest decision, especially with Frazier and Alonso complicating the situation in 2010.
The Reds now have flexibility. Abreu is now said to be willing to accept a one year deal. He may be an option as we get closer to spring. We may decide in the spring that we have a surplus somewhere and can make a move like we did when we brought in Arroyo. We may wait to see if the team is in contention and then make a move in July.
Point is, the team is improved defensively. I say substantially, most say marginally. The offense as GregD points out is capable of being about the same and has the potential to be much improved as well.
I would add to that, what else besides the car are you spending your budget on? Rhodes, Taveras, Weathers and Hernandez to me are the equivalent of the play station 3, new waterbed and big screen tv. None are necessarily bad by themselves if all your necessities are covered, but if you have to take the bus because your car is shot, I start to question the priorities.
David, I agree on not breaking the bank for one player. Frankly, when we traded Dunn and Griffey, I thought it was an acknowledgment we were playing for 2010 and setting things up for then. I just don’t see how the moves we have made thus far fit into any longer term plan. Agree with your point about flexibility, at least all these deals are short term ones, and maybe there is that other move coming, but I can’t shake the feeling we are in the old Pirates/KC mode of signing a couple veterans to make things look respectable without actually building a team that contend.
Of course I am grossly pesimistic by nature.
While we all know EE’s shortcomings, I would say that Ramirez, Reynolds, and Cantu are worse NL 2Bmen. Even more so if you overlook EE’s horrible April last year.
Cantu probably, but he’ll end up at first. That said, I’m sure each of those 3 you list have a horrible month that, if you throw out, would make them look better, too.
Aramis looks to be at least average.
Cantu can also play multiple positions, not well, but he does have that going for him.
huh, right handed power bat that offers some flexibility and can be a contributor off the bench. Too bad the Reds couldn’t have gotten him….Oh.
It’s not really relevant when people can pick and choose the stats they want to evaluate players.
Taveras’s defense was worse in Colorado than in Houston. Both have big outfields, and Houston has the rise in centerfield…I would think Houston is tougher. STats say Taveras declined and intuition about the fields tells me the same. Patterson is better.
Gonzalez was hurt last year and plays the most demanding non-catcher position in the field. He had a “down” year in 2007….and he’s over 32 and is playing shortstop. yes, he’s better than Hairson and Keppinger, but neither of those are shortstops anyway.
He’ll be better than those guys, but worse than 2007…he’s now an aging, recuperating downhill shorstop.
I’ve always thought Encarnacion was better than most of us say, and Votto improved over the year at 1b. Neither are gold glovers, and won’t be.
Phillips is very good at 2b…and should be our shortstop….that would help us immensely….
Bako is a far better catcher than Hernandez…Hernandez was signed for his power…which is on the decline.
Bruce was not a good outfielder last year. I think he will be much better; left field will be better, no question…but, I find it real hard to believe that a leftfielder can cost us several games in a season.
By the way, on the subject of OBP…Dunn and Griffey were two of our best in OBP last year (not that Griffey’s was good, but better than nearly everybody else)…
One quick tool for offensive evaluation…if a players goes up, chances are they will come down a bit the next year (unless ages 26-29, then expect an incremental bump each year). If over 30, and they go up, they will almost certainly go down the next.
(Redlegs…The storm kept me from addressing this earlier)
Q: “Mention names. Then, tell us the cost of getting said player.”
A: Juan Rivera was a SOLID choice to be the bridge RHB LF…He was seen as WJ’s #1 FA RHB LF…WJ had made contact & had offered…But FAILED to acquire him, due to being unwilling to go 3yrs-$13.5MM. Which, even in this market, is reasonable coin for 25HR/30DB/90RBI potential…and would have been a reasonable contract that could have been moved(if need be) in a yr or 2 down the line (when Frazier, Francisco, Dorn or Votto is in line to be moved to LF).
Had WJ offered the 3rd year, a week or 2 before Teix went to the NYY, JR probably signs w/ CIN as the starting LF.. (As the LAA were dragging thier feet w/ Rivera, while waiting on the TEIX sweepstakes.)
There was interest from both parties…The 3rd year was the sticking point….But NO ONE can say that his salary level would not have fit into the current/future payroll restrictions. His 2009 salary would have been no more that JHJ could get…And No More than WJ is spending on Stormy.
IMO, not getting Rivera was the biggest “Whiff” of the off-season.
Q: “Are you one of these people who believe one-year rentals are worth Bailey, Cueto, or other upside minors prospects for the mirage of actually being a contender with this club?”
A: No, but I do understand that you have to give up quality to acquire quality…Even if that is for 1yr rentals.
I hated the rumored Dye deal…I believe Homer will turn it around..Now that a mystery issue(knee) has been brought to light & given the way he pitched in LOU in SEPT. (Also have heard very good news of his progression this off-season)…
But in the case of Holiday…I do not believe that a deal built around Cueto was the only way to get that deal w/ COL done.
The A’s gave up a MLB CL that lost his job(Street), a SP w/ a 6-17 MLB record in 2008(Smith) and a good AAA OF prospect w/ little MLB pop(Gonzalez). IMO, a deal built around Roenicke or Burton, Thompson/Maloney/Ramirez, Stubbs & a Low A prospect(4 players total)…Would that have been enough to make the deal??? Who’s to say…All we know is WJ stopped the conversation at Cueto…W/O pressing for acceptable alternatives
I TRULY BELIEVE that Holiday was/is the PERFECT RHB LF run-producer for this team…I also think he would have made the REDS more that a MIRAGE of a contender. MH has the ability to make the REDS line-up VERY potent offensively…allowing everyone in front of/behind him to see better pitches…Plus, He’s a VERY GOOD defensive OF. He fit the #1 team need to a tee.
It would have also given the REDS a yr to sell MH on the team/org, the history, the fans & the city….as well as, giving the REDS a major marketing tool in a drepressed market. One that creates a buzz & hope…Might even help sell some of those early season tickets that are still on the shelves, unclaimed.
IMO, it would have been well worth the risk, for a player of his ability…Even as a 1yr stop-gap/marketing ploy.