Loading ...From Lance McAlister’s blog:
The Reds have traded numbers with both of their players who filed for arbitration — 3b Edwin Encarnacion and RHP David Weathers.
Encarnacion, who made $450,000 last season, has asked for $3.7 million and has been offered $2.55 million.
Weathers, who made $3.3 million last season, has asked for $4.6 million and been offered $3 million.
The Encarnacion numbers seem right, the Weathers numbers seem high to me.
Cubs sign Mike Stanton. I can’t wait for him to make the team and blow a game or two against the Reds. (if he makes the team)
Here is the link to the story: http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/cubs_stanton.php
I think you will see weathers end up with around what he made last year. I don’t think he will get close to what he is asking for and if he does he will be extremely over payed. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see EE sign for around the same amount at $3.0MM hopefully a little less.
I agree that the Weathers numbers look high. It would be interesting to hear the evidence from both sides if this goes to the hearing,
Edwin’s money seem pretty right on with his offensive numbers. How often do defensive numbers figure into determining a salary in arbitration?
Cubs sign Mike Stanton
Is the middle reliever market that dry? Maybe Weathers’ numbers aren’t that out of line after all.
Who would Weathers side present as comparable players/salaries?
I can’t see Weathers losing. He is coming off of three straight 130 or better ERA+ seasons and the Reds are trying to cut his salary. I don’t see that one going in their favor.
The problem with arbitration is that it’s an either or process. So Weathers will either get 3 or he will get 4.6. 4.6 seems outrageous. Fangraphs has his value wins at 0.2 last season good for $1 million. Bill Bray was at 0.7, Affeldt at 0.5, Burton 0.5, and Cordero 1.0. So that gives you at least some idea of his “worth.” For kicks… Rhodes was 1.4.
One could get a good idea how “number smart” an organization was by observing their side in an arbitration hearing.
I would suggest one could get a good idea of how “number smart” an organization was by how much they pay for middle relievers.
I agree 100%, Steve. Though there’s been a premium on experienced (and ostensibly reliable) middle relief over the past few years, I still think that’s an area a team can fill for next to nothing.
For me…The question remains…Why did WJ offer ARB to Weathers, when Roenicke is poised to take a spot in the pen (and do it at the league min.)???
If the plan was to contend in 2009…Then he’s failed us all, by not getting the RH OF stick we need…If he thought Stormy would decline & sign elsewhere, then he failed there too.
Now, it appears we will be on the hook for $4.6MM…When there is no way in hell that Stormy is worth that kind of money.
I would have MUCH rather seen Rivera signed w/ that cash!
Sigh. If only someone would fill Weathers’ gigantic head with helium so he could float away.
I don’t mind offering Weathers arbitration. Seems to me that you’re getting one of two pretty reasonable things when you do that.
You either get:
–one more season of the guy at “market value” (in theory), or
–a draft pick
In this case, we got a surprise acceptance from Weathers so we get him for one year at market value.
I wonder if the argument that the market has adjusted salaries downward this offseason would factor in? Seems like that is a very valid point to make. If the whole market for middle relievers is down a bit, then maybe it makes perfect sense for Weathers to be worth $3.3 million last year and “only” worth $3 million this year?
Anyway, to me it was a risk worth taking. Affeldt, for example, signed elsewhere and we’ll get a “sandwich pick” — which isn’t a bad pick, sandwiched between rounds 1 and 2 — in the upcoming draft.
Cot’s says Stormy’s 2008 salary was $2.7 million and I don’t believe he finished enough games to reach the $800,000 in bonuses, so the $3,3m figure listed by the Reds appears to be wrong.
If so, the team offering Stormy 3 isn’t totally off-base. I agree he’s not worth the $4.7 mil but I also believe he’ll get it at the table. Still, if they settle, he’ll get around 3.75-4 and that’s right in the ballpark of what these guys are getting the past 2-3 years.
And I disagree on Roenicke being ready. He showed he’s a 1 1/2-pitch pitcher with spotty control and little movement. He throws hard. That’s about it. But I do agree with Chris: I preferred to see some mix of Ramirez, Herrera, Masset, maybe even Fisher, get a look at that slot.
I agree with Dan, but there is a possibility that arbitrators will be behind the curve in understanding the current marketplace.
It seems to me that the data on salaries going down is simply too new and speculative for an arbitrator to make that kind of determination. The arbitrator’s job will be to simply evaluate others with similar playing time and experience and pick one or the other. A reduced marketplace may be reality, but the process likely won’t reflect it.
It is probably the reason that, in hindsight, clubs made so few arbitration offers this winter. Many called Arizona out for not offering Dunn arbitration, but they may have been right after all, as he might do worse on the FA market.
In arbitration, doesn’t Weathers side have to provide evidence of comparable players earning the same rate or could they win the argument by saying he doesn’t deserve a pay cut, which Redlegs is saying may not be the case. I’d have a hard time believing he’d have enough comps to win his case on that argument alone.
Looking at Encarncion’s numbers, there are a lot of players in the same boat as him. 1st year arb, asked for $3.x, offered $2.x, and about $1M apart.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/arbitration-fig.html
Two of the guys on that list, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham, are on Edwin’s top 10 similar players list at baseball-reference.com.
Mr. Redlegs,
I watched Roenicke pitch MULTIPLE times in LOU…He is as close to being MLB ready, as any pitcher in the system. 3 ML innings is not the sample size to make that kind of statement (1 1/2 pitch pitcher w/ spotty control).
His control is fine (2.54ERA, 43SO/14BB over 39 AAA innings) and I didn’t get the churning in my stomach when he entered the games. (I do when Stromy enters a REDS game.)
A serious case can be made for having all those guys(Roenicke, Fisher, Herrera & Ramirez) on the 25man roster. I would much rather have a couple of those guys than a couple we signed/offered arbitration to.
IMO, this half-assed plan to contend in 2009 is killing us.
Why sign 39yr old Loogy Rhodes to 2yrs/$4MM & offer Stormy Arb (when you know it’ll be in the $4MM range) in an attempt to fortify the bull-pen & get above .500/make a run at the Central…If your not going to fill the #1 off-season need, a RHB run-producer to place in btwn V & B???
I can not, for the life of me, figure out why they went about things bassackwards.
IMO, You get the RH stick 1st… You do not waste what little resources you have, signing past-their-prime situational relief guys to multi-yr contracts or overpaying on 1yr deals.
(Anyone remember Mike Stanton.)
Middle relief could easily be filled from w/in, if guys like Weathers or Rhodes ask for too much….You have Roenicke, Herrera, Fisher, Viola, Masset, Ramirez, Manuel, Pelland and a slew of other AA/AAA guys on the verge of being MLB ready.
Clubhouse leadership is no excuse for bringing Stormy back…How good was that leadership, last year, when the REDS staff was giving up 800runs & leading MLB in HR’s given up(201)?
I think the Reds will settle with Encarnacion. Given they are that close, I’d imagine they probably split the baby or add incentives. I agree with GregD, that Weathers will have a hard time finding comparables.
I’m with Doug on this one. Weathers is going to win his case.