An interesting note I read this morning from rotoworld.com ponders why the top tier free agents are taking salary hits this year, but teams are still paying (overpaying?) for middle relievers and utility players:
“Dodgers signed RHP Guillermo Mota, who had been with the Brewers, to a one-year, $2.35 million contract. It’s completely backwards that the flailing economy seems to be doing more of a number on the genuine talents in free agency than completely fungible players like Mota. Mediocre middle relievers and average utilitymen are still commanding $2 million per year for some reason. ”
On the Reds, what are they paying Weathers, Lincoln, and Rhodes? $2M each? Compared to what they could pay, say, Roenicke, Thompson, and Herrera (or comps of your choice.) Could have saved at least $5 million there w/o being locked into a 2nd year. Moves like that are what a budget-minded team needs to do if they want to acquire/retain star position player talent.
easily replaced…don’t spend the money here; take the $5 million from these guys, the money from trading Cordero away, the money from our centerfielder, the money from Gonzalez, and the money from newly acquired Hernandez, replace them with “readily available talent” and go sign a couple of guys that make a difference.
Frankly, our moves of the past two years have achieved two things…
1) Cut payroll (Dunn and Griffey)
2) Supplied personnel needed for a contending team (closer and spare parts).
In fairness, promoting Bruce was for the future…I think Votto won the job over Hatteberg…if Hatteberg had been hitting, Joey may not have played as much.
Junior has reached his end…Dunn hasn’t…
And, before anyone suggests, get over Dunn (is this “Airplane?”), it doesn’t have to be him….don’t spend the money on the guys who need a job…
Fangraphs uses win value, rather than WARP. Calculating salary is a bit more sophisticated than the 10% increase Justin uses.
“Replacement level [is set] at around a .300 win% (or 48 wins per team), that means that there are about 1,000 marginal wins in a major league season. All 30 teams are fighting over these 1,000 wins, each trying to get more than 45 or so to get them in the playoffs …
In general, we can say that the market price of a win is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year …
To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.
To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win.”
So, multiply Dunn’s win value 1.9 in 2008 by $4.5 million, and you get Dunn’s value = $8.55. This is incredibly similar to Justin’s figure.
FWIW, the 10% is a shorthand, but it’s been true for several years running and is based on studies like what you cited at fangraphs. We’ve been doing this far longer than fangraphs–they’ve done great work in getting it all automated for us, but they’re (basically) just implementing established methods.
Also, I’m not using WARP–until it’s revision is complete and it’s been vetted, it’s not worth paying attention to.
I use a combination of linear weights and base runs, which is the same thing that fangraphs uses. Fangraphs’ methods and my methods are based on the same body of work, mostly by guys like Tom Tango, David Smyth, Patriot, etc. Actually, here I was mostly just using Rally’s published projections (CHONE), but the same applies.
-j
Justin – not dissing your work. Actually, I think it was spot on. I was just providing another source which proves essentially the same thing you did. I wanted to head off those who would attempt to discredit your methodology and say that Dunn is worth 5 years $110 million.
I spoke with someone within the Reds organization and per our conversation he thinks Dunn will be lucky to get 5 million. He said, at this point the best case scenario for Dunn is if the Dodgers are unable to sign Manny and then they would be go after Dunn. Otherwise interest around baseball for his services are very low. He also suggested the Reds have “zero” interest in bringing him back.
Slattspub – The problem I think is he is a player without a position. There aren’t a lot of AL teams that need a LH DH for the money he is after.
To be honest, early on, I thought the the Texas Rangers would jump all over Dunn. He is a major upgrade over Hank Blalock and Dunn is from Texas. Seattle may be another team that could use a DH, but they aren’t going to spend the big money figure. Boston was rumored.
preach – the best collection of rumors is both prosportsdaily.com
and mlbtraderumors.com. Prosportsdaily.com keeps a feed on all online newspapers and Tim Dierkes does a great job pooling ALL and I mean ALL mlb news outlets.
Steve – that’s what I have been screaming for months. The tension seems like bridges were burned almost. I think the Reds came in at a good number for the market and Dunn felt insulted. I think Jocketty is enjoying his misfortune a little bit.
I seriously doubt that Jocketty is enjoying Dunn’s experience in free agency. They’re businessmen, they failed to reach an agreement on a deal, and Jocketty apparently wasn’t willing to risk Dunn’s arbitration cost or believed the D’backs trade package was worth more than a Type A pick.
I think teams are afraid of what the economy will do to their revenues (even the Yankees; every Type A free agent they signed for big bucks is one less draft pick who’ll seek a multimillion-dollar signing bonus). There are also a glut of slugging LF/DH types on the market, and it also seems that player type has declined in value in favor of pitchers and players with a better defensive profile. That’s a perfect storm of factors working against Dunn, and his value has always been the matter of some controversy, anyway.
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
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An interesting note I read this morning from rotoworld.com ponders why the top tier free agents are taking salary hits this year, but teams are still paying (overpaying?) for middle relievers and utility players:
“Dodgers signed RHP Guillermo Mota, who had been with the Brewers, to a one-year, $2.35 million contract. It’s completely backwards that the flailing economy seems to be doing more of a number on the genuine talents in free agency than completely fungible players like Mota. Mediocre middle relievers and average utilitymen are still commanding $2 million per year for some reason. ”
On the Reds, what are they paying Weathers, Lincoln, and Rhodes? $2M each? Compared to what they could pay, say, Roenicke, Thompson, and Herrera (or comps of your choice.) Could have saved at least $5 million there w/o being locked into a 2nd year. Moves like that are what a budget-minded team needs to do if they want to acquire/retain star position player talent.
yes yes yes yes yes
easily replaced…don’t spend the money here; take the $5 million from these guys, the money from trading Cordero away, the money from our centerfielder, the money from Gonzalez, and the money from newly acquired Hernandez, replace them with “readily available talent” and go sign a couple of guys that make a difference.
Frankly, our moves of the past two years have achieved two things…
1) Cut payroll (Dunn and Griffey)
2) Supplied personnel needed for a contending team (closer and spare parts).
In fairness, promoting Bruce was for the future…I think Votto won the job over Hatteberg…if Hatteberg had been hitting, Joey may not have played as much.
Junior has reached his end…Dunn hasn’t…
And, before anyone suggests, get over Dunn (is this “Airplane?”), it doesn’t have to be him….don’t spend the money on the guys who need a job…
Fangraphs uses win value, rather than WARP. Calculating salary is a bit more sophisticated than the 10% increase Justin uses.
“Replacement level [is set] at around a .300 win% (or 48 wins per team), that means that there are about 1,000 marginal wins in a major league season. All 30 teams are fighting over these 1,000 wins, each trying to get more than 45 or so to get them in the playoffs …
In general, we can say that the market price of a win is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year …
To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.
To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win.”
So, multiply Dunn’s win value 1.9 in 2008 by $4.5 million, and you get Dunn’s value = $8.55. This is incredibly similar to Justin’s figure.
I’m just curious…is there anyone that wouldn’t want Adam Dunn for $8.5M?
JP Ricciardi probably but I don’t think anybody else wouldn’t jump at that price for Dunn.
Bill, for a two year deal I would pay Dunn that much, but not if he wanted more than 2 years.
Hell, I was talking about a one year deal. IF the Reds could get him for two years for $17M, I’d be thrilled.
David,
FWIW, the 10% is a shorthand, but it’s been true for several years running and is based on studies like what you cited at fangraphs. We’ve been doing this far longer than fangraphs–they’ve done great work in getting it all automated for us, but they’re (basically) just implementing established methods.
Also, I’m not using WARP–until it’s revision is complete and it’s been vetted, it’s not worth paying attention to.
I use a combination of linear weights and base runs, which is the same thing that fangraphs uses. Fangraphs’ methods and my methods are based on the same body of work, mostly by guys like Tom Tango, David Smyth, Patriot, etc. Actually, here I was mostly just using Rally’s published projections (CHONE), but the same applies.
-j
Justin – not dissing your work. Actually, I think it was spot on. I was just providing another source which proves essentially the same thing you did. I wanted to head off those who would attempt to discredit your methodology and say that Dunn is worth 5 years $110 million.
I spoke with someone within the Reds organization and per our conversation he thinks Dunn will be lucky to get 5 million. He said, at this point the best case scenario for Dunn is if the Dodgers are unable to sign Manny and then they would be go after Dunn. Otherwise interest around baseball for his services are very low. He also suggested the Reds have “zero” interest in bringing him back.
I keep flipping over here a couple times daily to see what big move the Reds have made to attempt to improve for the 2009 season….sigh.
Sounds like Adam Dunn really did tell the Reds to go stick it if the Reds are really this angry…
Slattspub – The problem I think is he is a player without a position. There aren’t a lot of AL teams that need a LH DH for the money he is after.
To be honest, early on, I thought the the Texas Rangers would jump all over Dunn. He is a major upgrade over Hank Blalock and Dunn is from Texas. Seattle may be another team that could use a DH, but they aren’t going to spend the big money figure. Boston was rumored.
preach – the best collection of rumors is both prosportsdaily.com
and mlbtraderumors.com. Prosportsdaily.com keeps a feed on all online newspapers and Tim Dierkes does a great job pooling ALL and I mean ALL mlb news outlets.
Steve – that’s what I have been screaming for months. The tension seems like bridges were burned almost. I think the Reds came in at a good number for the market and Dunn felt insulted. I think Jocketty is enjoying his misfortune a little bit.
I seriously doubt that Jocketty is enjoying Dunn’s experience in free agency. They’re businessmen, they failed to reach an agreement on a deal, and Jocketty apparently wasn’t willing to risk Dunn’s arbitration cost or believed the D’backs trade package was worth more than a Type A pick.
I think teams are afraid of what the economy will do to their revenues (even the Yankees; every Type A free agent they signed for big bucks is one less draft pick who’ll seek a multimillion-dollar signing bonus). There are also a glut of slugging LF/DH types on the market, and it also seems that player type has declined in value in favor of pitchers and players with a better defensive profile. That’s a perfect storm of factors working against Dunn, and his value has always been the matter of some controversy, anyway.
Something just occurred to me….
Right now it’s a buyer’s market..
As we all seem to state…there are players just like the Reds need, that are available, and the going price is low…
And, we have money to spend (yes, small market or not, we make money)….
Winning brings more fans, brings competitive baseball, makes other players want to play for us.
Why aren’t we buying?
Why aren’t we buying?
Maybe no one else is fast enough.
I’m still waiting for that ‘one big deal’ before the season begins…..c’mon guys. Just one…big…deal….
Dunn is going to sign with the Nationals. It’s a done deal.