Loading ...Trent Rosecrans is, as usual, doing the best reporting about the Reds. Today, he interviewed Jerry Hairston, Jr..
Key stuff:
–He came back to the Reds out of loyalty to the organization for giving him a shot last year.
–He says he’ll be healthy from now on, since his hamstring problems were the product of a bad diet. He’s got a dietician now, and says 2008 is repeatable.
–He prefers the infield, but will play anywhere.
–He sees himself batting #2, behind Fast Willy The Out Maker. He mentions them table-setting for Votto and Bruce.
(Unfortunately, I bet BP bats third, making for a lot of “Votto, Bruce, and EE in the second.”
–His goals for 2009 “1. Get on base. 2. Score a ton of runs. 3. Helping the team win.”
I like the goals, at least. He understands how offense works a lot better than most people.
Trent also interviewed Jocketty, who said a bunch of stuff that didn’t surprise and didn’t please me.
No big bat, I don’t think: “I think right now, if we had to go to camp, we’d be fine with that. I’ve talked to Dusty a couple of times today. We’re still looking to improve our bench.”
And nonsense like this: “We’ve got guys who are better athletes and create some havoc on the basepaths and do something that is a little of different than we’ve done in the past.”
So we’ll have havoc, if nothing else.
In all fairness, though, what’s Jocketty supposed to say? “Welp, we’re at least one, big right-handed bat from having any sort of shot, but we’re not willing to pay what it costs in cash or prospects to acquire one. See you in 2010, Cincinnati. Tickets go on sale later this month.”
Ya know, I just don’t buy the right-handed bat thing. If a righty comes in and puts up Adam Dunn’s OPS and RBI, this is still a fourth or fifth place team. Just because the guy bats from the other side doesn’t amount to much in my book.
Havoc, yes. Runs, no.
If the Reds go to camp with the club they’ve got right now, there’s absolutely no reason to be “fine with that” and also no reason to put your butt in a seat in GABP this season.
From Jocketty’s comments in Trent’s interview, it certainly sounds like LF is looking like a Hairston/Dickerson platoon right now. And it looks like Baldelli is no longer an option, despite the best wishes of a lot of folks around here.
It is encouraging, though, to hear they’re inquiring about Swisher or Nady from the Yankees. I’d prefer Nady if only for the one year, but only if the Reds don’t have to give up much more than a couple of mid-level prospects to get him.
I didn’t mind the Hairston signing, but it’s even better now that I know what Hairston’s mind frame is. Of course, with Dusty, who knows what will actually happen.
One big question though. Does Jocketty realize the Reds home ballpark is built for power?! Speed is nice, but power wins more often than not in Great American.
Indeed. They had a winning formula. Why change?
Mark – the problem wasn’t the offense all these years (until last year anyhow), the problem was pitching. They finally have a decent staff, and now no offense. That’s not changing the formula, that’s rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as they say.
I wonder, like the guy over at Rosecrans site, what in a diet causes a hamstring pull. I imagine it’s something that, in general, causes muscle pulls, but I’d like to hear what he changed.
Guys… I think we need to calm down. I have been surprised with Jocketty’s candor at times this winter. I think he has almost been honest to a fault. EVERYONE knows the Reds are desperate for a RH OF. It’s the basic principles of economics – supply and demand. The demand from the Reds is so high that other clubs will charge a higher premium for the supply.
Jocketty needs to take his foot of the gas and let things settle in. That’s all I believe this is. John Fay’s latest is that the Jocketty has talked “a lot” with Brian Cashman. I don’t think the Reds are done, but the Reds have to give the appearance at this point that they are willing to go to spring training with the team they have.
John – the Reds understand that they need someone who pounds lefties in between Votto and Bruce. If that is a righty great. If it is a lefty who hits lefties well like Abreu, fine. However, I think Abreu is the exception to the rule and I think that offering a multiyear deal to Abreu with the glut of OFs we have is a mistake.
At the very least Jocketty is conceding that neither Phillips nor E5 are 3/4 hitters. THAT should make a lot of people happy, but it has been missed by everyone that opposed Phillips batting cleanup last season.
Diets can certainly lead to pulled muscles and what not. Give a poor diet to a professional athlete and its just playing with fire.
For what its worth, I think Hairston is in for an OPS in the .770 area next year. Better than his career suggests, but nowhere near what last year suggests.
It did appear that Jerry Hairston played last year like it was the last chance he was going to get and when healthy, the Reds benefited from his game. I’m cool with Cincy giving Hairston another shot and hopefully he will have a good year.
The guy never played as well as he did last year, but maybe the Reds will get lucky and the guy will have a big year.
While I tend to agree with Travis that Jocketty really can’t say anything else, the bit about improving the defense is starting to get on my nerves. There seems to be no evidence supporting that assertion and Jocketty saying it over and over again does not make it true.
But if he says it over and over again then he may convince himself
Latest from John Heyman confirms the Yankees are actively pursuing trade offers for Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher, while the Red Sox appear ready to sign Rocco Baldelli (and John Smoltz for what it’s worth).
I have been convinced since the Yankees signed Tex that if Nady was put on the market, the Reds would have a terrific chance of landing him. I’ve seen his expected arbitration number at 3.5 million and he has a win value according to fangraphs higher than Dunn. I think it’ll take a Frazier to get him, maybe a Thompson. It should get interesting in the next week.
Travis asks a fair question. The answer is that Jocketty shouldn’t have been talking all year about adding a bat if he wasn’t going to do it.
And he shouldn’t be frittering his allowance away on knicknacks and carnival trinkets like Tavares and Hairston.
CeeKer is exactly right. They have a small ballpark built for LH power (i.e. Griffey), and they keep talking about filling it with right-handers and speed guys who can go get the ball in the OF.
I can’t tell you how sick I am of Mark T’s theory. Yeah, they lost with a good offense. They lost with Adam Dunn. I don’t know why the solution is to try to have a BAD offense, with fast guys.
Hell, they lost with guys wearing cleats on their feet. Should they put them on their hands next season to reverse their losing ways?
I’d be very happy going into 2009 if the Reds could bring in the Dirty 30.
Havoc? Didn’t he used to play for the Tigers?
How the heck is a guy making $3.35M coming off of a career year in which he OPS 867 going to get just $3.5M in arbitration? Not likely.
Nady is allright, but I give up nothing to get him for one year since he is barely better than anything we already have.
2006 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 536 .276 .324 .427 .751
Encarnacion 406 .276 .359 .473 .831
Nady 468 .280 .337 .453 .790
2007 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 650 .288 .331 .485 .816
Encarnacion 502 .289 .356 .438 .794
Nady 431 .278 .330 .476 .805
2008 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 559 .261 .312 .442 .754
Encarnacion 506 .251 .340 .466 .807
Nady 555 .305 .357 .510 .867
2006-2009 AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 1745 .276 .323 .453 .776
Encarnacion 1414 .272 .340 .466 .807
Nady 1454 .289 .343 .481 .824
2009 James Proj. AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 601 .263 .313 .431 .744
Encarnacion 539 .278 .356 .490 .846
Nady 546 .284 .337 .473 .810
2009 Marcels Proj. AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 525 .272 .325 .448 .772
Encarnacion 483 .271 .351 .453 .804
Nady 501 .283 .341 .467 .808
2008 VS LH AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 162 .296 .358 .586 .944
Encarnacion 144 .292 .401 .507 .908
Nady 126 .262 .361 .444 .805
2006-2008 VS LH AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 507 .316 .364 .550 .914
Encarnacion 412 .277 .383 .464 .847
Nady 328 .296 .378 .485 .863
Swisher would be a PERFECT fit for the Reds, a hustling, young team player. Despite a low BA, he takes pitches and walks, has good (and has shown very good) power and is a SWITCH hitter that can play corner outfield and infield. Plus he’s a local talent.
Lets make a deal!!!!
Tom,
It seems everyone is getting hung up on whatever stats favor their opinion…
Nady had a good 2008, so everybody wants him; same for Hairston.
Keppinger couldn’t field, and didn’t hit last year, so apparently he’s not a hitter.
Phillips hit 30 homers one year so he can bit in the middle of the order.
Votto finished strong last year so he carry the power load.
Bruce had a great two weeks last year, so he’s ready to hit clean up.
Hernandez was an all-star sometime in the Paleozoic so he must be an improvement.
Dickerson has a great cup of coffee, and journeymen minor league career be damned, he’s a starting leftfielder (he had been projected as a poor hitter, good defender).
Now…in fairness…this is what makes the Hot Stove League fun….but, baseball history typically
To finish….
Baseball history typically says if a player makes a sudden jump, they will typically settle back the next season.
If a player makes a jump near ages 26-29, they won’t probably won’t get much better…that’s not young, that’s their peak seasons (see Chris Sabo…Chris Dickerson, and yes, even Nick Swisher who’s not young…he’s 29).
If a player makes a huge jump after the age of 30, they’re either on steroids or they’ve temporarily found a genie in a bottle; expect the collapse to happen with the next elevator.
Votto is a very good player, and will get better, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him back up a bit this year, before taking another step forward next year. A clean up hitter, he is not, much like Sean Casey should never have been a clean up hitter. I do think Votto will be better than Casey was…
I think Jay Bruce has a real chance to be a superstar….right now he’s a less than average hitter (96 OPS last year…take out his first two weeks and he had questionable starting stats….); I’ve already said, I’d bat him 6 or 7 in the order right now.
Keppinger will improve, Phillips will bounce back some, Encarnacion will hit more homers. Dickerson will probably be a .265 hitter with 15 homers; Taveras is next to terrible…I cringed at the news of his signing.
Hairston will be lucky to pass a 700 OPS this season…he’s useful, but not a starter.
I mean…..who do we trade? Jocketty keeps talking about the future….outside of Bruce and Votto, what position players are untouchable? Do we really have enough depth in the minors to fill all the holes we have…especially if we trade for rent-a-player for a year position players?
The Braves made a killing for years dealing less than average minor league talent that was over-valued (especially pitchers). I don’t see Jocketty being that slick….
That’s why I’m a proponent of buying big time talent now to show the world we’re serious….while developing the youth rather than trading the youth…unless, of course, our youth is overvalued…
Jocketty has to promote the team; I don’t fault him for that….if ownership doesn’t want to spend the money to win, he’s in a hapless situation….but, boy it’s a mistake to replace the power with speed in this ballpark….the ballpark effect that’s enhanced at home for us is the homer…hits are nearly neutral
Dusty’s pennant winners have all had a 40 HR guy so I absolutley think we need a big bat but it appears that Jocketty isn’t going to spend the Griffey /Dunn savings. If the Yanks are shopping Swisher (who just turned 28 six weeks ago) at 3.6M/Y and we can put a switch hitting 20+ HR’s, 50 XBH, and a .350 OBP HARD NOSED BALL PLAYER in our outfield at that price why not give up Stubbs, or Bailey? Dare I say Swisher would also be EE (arbitration coming) minus 20 errors (10 2base) i.e. kep or Jh Jr at 3rd.
6 years of Todd Frazier for 1 year of a mediocrity like Xavier Nady is complete insanity. Come on.
Who’s the next Carlos Quentin? Someone who’s been bad (so can be acquired cheaply) but has a real chance to break out.
Sorry to be repetitive about this, but to me the closest possibilities are Nelson Cruz (Rangers) or Jonny Gomes (free agent).
Cruz (majors) – .251/.312/.431
Cruz (minors) – .298/.370/.539
Gomes (majors) – .235/.329/.455
Gomes (minors) – .272/.398/.529
Both are 28, and both have good OBP/power upside. I also think both would be reasonably cheap (especially Gomes, I think).
OBP and power – these are the biggest needs on the team right now, I think.
Didn’t mean to dis Nady so hard, by the way. I think he’s a decent player. I just don’t see him being that much better than Cruz or Gomes, but he’d be WAY more expensive (both in terms of what we’d have to give up to get him, and in terms of salary).
If we’re not going to go after a slam-dunk good hitter, we might as well go the “buy low” route.
No reason to overpay for Nady or Swisher when there are options that are almost as good out there for MUCH less.
I was thinking a bit esoterically last night about what a general manager’s job is and, in particular, what Jocketty’s job is right now.
The goal should always be to put together a team that can win, within budget constraints, but with an eye on building a championship contender. Jocketty inherited a mediocre but improving 40-man roster (thanks, Wayne K.) that had a boatload of players eligible for free agency. That left a lot of holes in this year’s 25-man roster, but there are a lot of talented young players who can fill them cheaply and capably as early as 2010.
So, in my estimation, Jocketty needed to spend this offseason filling those roster holes with players who can either help in 2010 and beyond or who can fill in this year, without costing too much in cash or prospects, and then step out of the way. He’s actually been pretty successful at that so far. If he can plug a slugging LF into this lineup without paying too much, he will have been very successful at his job.
Baldelli is going to sign with the Red Sox in case anyone missed that, so he’s gone.
Nady and Swisher would be nice to get, but I’m not sure we have too many valuable assets that we should give away for them. We have a lot of talent in Double AA but I don’t want us to trade away any of that.
I think maybe now we should just wait and see how the market plays out. Prices for corner outfielders are dropping and if we wait a little bit longer, maybe someone will come into our price range
Columbus Dispatch article from this morning:
http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/sports/stories/2009/01/08/reds08.ART0_ART_01-08-09_C4_7VCF5QP.html?sid=101
I appreciate Tom’s statistical breakdown, but I don’t think the question is whether X.Nady is better than BP or EE. He’s not going to replace one of those guys. I’d rather see a breakdown of X.Nady’s line against Harriston, Dickerson, L.Nix, and whatever other dreck they’re considering for the LF job.
Okay, I have seen so much pessimism on these sites recently that Im going to give us a shot of optimism. First off, I realize that no one can compare this years Reds team to any of the teams I reference, one bit. But I really believe this teams success hinges upon the performance of Fast Wily. He played very poorly last season, as did the Rockies. However in 05, 06, and 07 with the Astros and Rockies, he performed well and all those teams made the playoffs. I know these teams did not make the playoffs on the shoulders of Tavares, but you would have to agree it is an interesting trend. Another difference maker is these teams had a Berkman or Holliday-type player. Do the Reds have that this year? With a career year out of Votto and/or Bruce I could possibly see that.
Oh by the way, you can cross Baldelli off the list. He’s gone to the Red Sox! Looks like, from here on, negotiations will be with the greedy Yankees/Cashman.
Tom – the problem in comparing EdE and Phillips to Nady is that neither are an OF. Well EdE is a LF but the Reds don’t want to admit it. I’ve never said he is the best option. What I said is he makes the most sense at this point.
Dan and Matt – Regarding the minor league situation, the problem is Alonso can only play 1B. He is being fast tracked and as soon as he proves he can hit as well with a wooden bat as he can with a metal bat, he will be starting at 1B as his defense is not expected to improve at all.
When that happens, Votto will be forced to LF or 3B. Frazier projects also at LF or 3B. Encarnacion projects longterm as LF or 3B. Francisco is purely 3B. That’ s four of our best young players stuck at LF or 3B.
Rating those four guys, I go 1) Votto, 2) Francisco, 3) Frazier, 4) EdE. 2010 it will probably be LF – Votto and 3B – EdE. In 2011 it should be LF – Votto and 3b – Francisco.
The only chance for Frazier is if he can play a solid SS. However, Valiaka is blocking him at SS because Valiaka is a more polished defender.
That’s why I think Frazier is expendable and that’s why you aren’t seeing longterm solutions acquired in FA at LF.
Which is why I don’t understand giving Votto more time in the outfield since that is where he is most likely going to have to be anyhow, and it’s not like we don’t need help there. From David’s breakdown it looks like we could deal a couple of prospects without hurting our depth.
“But I really believe this teams success hinges upon the performance of Fast Wily.”…and that comes from someone looking OPTIMISTICALLY. And you are correct, this team does not have Berkman, Bagwell, Holiday, or Helton on it.
But it is a new year and while it’s cold outside I am beginning to be renewed with the promise brought by Spring. We will succeed. We still have time before pitchers and catchers report. I think Walt will pull off a manuver that will make me smile. I can almost smell the aroma of fresh cut grass. I think I’ll go get a hotdog right now.
Reading the article that Preach linked to, I’m still impressed by Bruce’s attitude (at least what he says to the media). He seems genuinely excited to play baseball and better yet, excited to win. Of course, excitement doesn’t mean anything in the win/loss columns, but it’s nice to see.
Preach – this is exactly why I said it was a mistake for Jocketty to ignore the possibility of shiffting Votto to LF now and adding a RH hitting 1B who could either come over on a one year deal or a two year deal to platoon with Yonder in 2010.
FAs don’t seem to fit as there are really only three possibilities, none of which are worth even a flier as a cleanup hitter i.e. Richie Sexsson, Rich Aurilia, Nomar.
As for trades, there is actually a pretty decent market of players rumored to be available. Victor Martinez (opt. to 2010), Ryan Garko (arb. to 2012), Paul Konerko (guar. to 2010), and Ryan Shealey (arb. to 2012).
Swisher and Nady.
How does Nick Swisher help? A .244 lifetime hitter, averages 23 HR, not fast as he averages 3 steals. He does walk a lot and scores some runs, although his on base pct was .332 in ‘08. He was beat out in Chi-town by Griffey. I am not sure what we have now isn’t better. I certainly wouldn’t give up much for him but would rather go with what we’ve got.
Nady would be more appealing. Still only about a 25 HR guy but he does drive in some runs. His durability has always been a concern. And, you just have to wonder why a guy with his skills and potential has been on 4 big league clubs in 7 years.
Well if Swisher isn’t fast, forget about it…..
Sorry.
The reason one of them helps is because we need another outfielder. Somebody with some established big league success who can start. Our roster depth is pretty stupid thin.
As far as first basemen go, Shealy might be a good fit. I think Martinez would only work if we consider him behind the plate as well, and we know how well that three headed monster thing works. Could this be the time to revisit Garret Adkins? His natural position is first base, but since the Rockies had a guy named Helton he was converted to third. He could hold down first until Alonso was ready and could move to third or provide some good material to trade.
You can’t afford to trade Frazier if the arguement is that Francisco is the better 3B because you can’t rely on anyone in the minor leagues until they prove themselves at the major league level.
In my opinion the Reds should not move Votto he is a 1B and should remain there until Alonso forces a switch of positions. I mean come on Votto finished Second in the Rookie of the Year and if the Reds had been a better team than the Cubs he probably would have won it with the same numbers and after that people are throwing around trading him and moving positions. ALONSO HASN”T DONE ANYTHING AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL, until he does stop talking about Votto moving positions.
Phillips – Gold Glove will stay at second long term
Votto – Second in Rookie of the Year will be a Red Long term
Bruce – Fans would Riot him
Those three are obviously who the team is building around position wise and all of them in my opinion will be and should be Reds for a long time coming.
EE needs to be moved either to LF or to another team in my opinion.
As for getting Nady or Swisher if we don’t have to give up much i’m all for it. But knowing the Yankees they will be asking for a rather steep price.
I know I’m repeating myself, but I have to keep saying it — I too think we need another bat (or two… or three), preferably one that will add needed OBP and power to the lineup.
But I think we need to think beyond the major leagues. The “proven” guys at the MLB level (like Nady and Swisher) will cost too much.
Find unproven guys who are about to break out — just like Carlos Quentin of a year ago.
I’ve mentioned Jonny Gomes and Nelson Cruz as possibilities. I’m sure there are others. Let’s get creative. I don’t like only targeting “proven” players b/c, like I said, if they’re proven, their price will be too steep (in players and/or in money).
We’ve GOT to be able to unearth someone who can give us 97% of Nady’s production (heck, maybe more than Nady’s production) while still allowing us to hold on to Bailey, Frazier, Francisco, Valaika, etc…
Just gotta get creative. Find the guys who are undervalued.
Undervalued OBP, athletic enough to play LF or 2B I’m convinced… Rickie Weeks.
I really feel breakout coming for him, and I really suspect that the Brewers are down on him.
All he’s gotta do is become a .260 or .270 hitter and that’ll elevate his OBP to the .370 or .380 level, and then he’ll be a fantastic #1 or #2 hitter. And I think he’ll do it. I’d like to see him to it here!
I actually forgot to list Atkins. Good call Preach. If only we ran the Reds, right?
The thing with KC is they have about 5 1B/DH type guys. KC has some holes in their pitching staff and could use another vet like Arroyo. Would an Arroyo/Shealy swap work? Probably not alone because of salary issues. However, if the Reds took back some salary, it might be a good fit.
The Indians have infield issues and nobody to speak of coming up at 3B. What if the Reds traded a package centering around Frazier for Victor Martinez or Ryan Garko? I actually like the flexibility Martinez would give you. The Reds would essentially carry three C. Plus, Martinez is a switch hitter.
Konerko is probably going to cost the least in terms of prospects. His contract is pretty huge and the White Sox would love to dump it. Personally, I can’t see KW moving him. There would be a riot more severe than when the Reds traded Kearns. Konerko is loved up here.
I don’t mean to dog you, Dan, I enjoy all of the back and forth from everyone But saying finding the next Carlos Quentin just isn’t a probable solution, is it? Even if the Reds did sign (or trade for) a guy like that, everyone on this message board would probably dog it because he isn’t established, myself included.
I do like your Rickie Weeks suggestion though. Versatile, athletic, and my God the speed! But I think the Brewers have soured on him and they aren’t in a position, I don’t think, to win this year so they may listen on offers. Worth a shot and its something I’d be on board with.
Bronson Arroyo is worth a whole lot more than Ryan Shealy.
Atkins is basically the same player as EdE, but he’s older and more expensive, and his stats are boosted tremendously by Coors Field (.921 OPS at home, .752 elsewhere). And the Rockies won’t be giving him away.
I like Nelson Cruz a lot, but he’s currently the third-most experienced OF on the Rangers’ 40-man roster. He won’t come cheap, and you’ve got to worry about giving up too much for a 28-year-old who’s never put it together for a full ML season.
Brian – If you can’t rely on anyone in the minor leagues until they reach the major league level, then no prospect is untouchable?
First, forget about our young MLB talent. What do you do when two prospects (Frazier and Francisco), are projected to play the same position, are projected to reach the big league level at the same time, and are at a minimum projected everyday players?
Second, let’s be cognizant of established MLB talent. What happens when a top prospect, the most established hitter in his draft, a guy on the 40-man roster, a guy expected to be promoted within the calendar year, is blocked positionally by a guy who was just ROY runnerup the year before?
The answers are the same. You either move the guy to a new position, or you move the guy to a new team.
Dan – It’d be great to find that diamond in the rough. However, how many times does a Carlos Quentin pan out?
David – I get your points and agree with them for the most part I was more or less making a long winded arguement on why Votto should not be moved.
I also agree that Yonder could turn into a potential all star first baseman but inless a true (stop gap) first baseman is acquired to fill the role until Yonder is ready why are we even talking about moving Votto to LF or to another team?
I have argued this offseason to acquire a 1B until Alonso is ready so that Votto can play LF (which he did occasionally in the minors) but until that happens in terms of trading Votto I can’t understand why the fans are even mentioning trading him since he can play LF? Maybe I think to highly of Votto.
I would take Atkins over E5 10 out of 10 times: First, the Coors comparison isn’t what it used to be, and E5 does play at GABP. Second, Atkins defense is much better. Third, Atkins has significant major league game experience at both corner infield spots and spent a considerable time in the outfield in the minors, if memory serves.
Also, what would be wrong with having another player with EE’s skillset playing in a position to which he’s suited? I actually like E5 when he doesn’t have a ball in his hand. EE has all the potential in the world. If we didn’t have so many prospects at his position he would almost be untouchable (I said almost, because potential without some sort of actuation eventually doesn’t mean much).
Atkins is a legit major leaguer and would provide an upgrade at third and could play first (resting Votto or giving him a couple outfield starts).
I do agree that Arroyo is worth more than Shealy, but putting a package together centering on those guys might work.
I guess I’m just encouraging some creativity to fill our outfield slot in other ways besides only looking at those traditional outfielders who are available. I’m still concerned about our shortstop position and as a result the sinkhole that could be our left side of the infield. If Taveras could always hit toward an E/5-Keppinger or Hairston combo his OBP would qualify him as a good leadoff hitter.
You should be able to get Shealy for a minor league reliever (non-closer.) Why he hasn’t been given more time/chances in the majors is beyond me, but you can’t give up MLB starting pitchers for a 29-yr old AAA DH/1B.
“However, how many times does a Carlos Quentin pan out?”
How many times is a Carlos Quentin made available? He was a number 1 draft pick, came up to the majors at 23 and was traded at 25…traded because the D-backs decided to sign Eric Byrnes and they had 3 young outfielders that were ML ready but only 2 spots to play them. Why they traded low and got so little in return, I’m not sure.
It would be like if the Reds would have traded Dunn for nothing after his 2003 season (the one where he played only 116 games and hit .215.)
i’m very happy to hear jocketty is not planning to use hairston as the everyday starting shortstop.
i like the idea of swisher in left, but i wonder – is he enough to win more than five or six more games than last season?
you know, we should really be thankful that for the first time in a heckuva long time we aren’t really concerned about starting pitching. sure, we have some ifs – will harang return to form, can bronson win 14, can cueto improve, can volquez repeat, will it be homer or owings or thompson or ramirez, but these are all ok concerns to have, not like last year when we had harang and arroyo and who knows going into spring training.
it’s a heckuva lot easier to find a bat than it is good pitching.
Brian – I guess I misunderstood. It seemed as though you were saying that until Alonso proves he is ready, leave Votto at first. My point was just that nobody doubts Alonso will be ready, and soon, so why limit your RH run producing search to LF. By expanding the search to 1B as well it gives you more options because you can move Votto since Votto will more likely than not be in LF next season.
Two things…1) #29…I would not rate Francisco over Frazier. I don’t see Francisco developing the plate discipline needed and he’s BAD defensively. I didn’t see tons of Frazier at Dayton, but he’s a player and IMO, will be better than Francisco.
2) #36 Alonso not only hasn’t done anything on the major league level, he’s yet to do anything on a minor league level. Yes, he hit well in Hawaii; but lets see if he’s God’s gift for at least 1/2 minor league season before we start handing him a starting major league job.
Maybe Jocketty knows more than we do. He has been vocal about an OF, but is it possible Votto could be moved but he’s not talking about it so he doesn’t tip his hand?
Like someone said, everyone knows he needs an OF so they are overcharging for who they have. If the Reds plan to move Votto and go after a 1B, they may be able to do so for better value, because the perception is that the Reds are “set” at first behind Votto and Alonso.
To Dan’s credit, he was beating the Carlos Quinten drum for a LONG time. All last off-season, and probably before.
I think most of our readers are perfectly willing to accept an “unestablished” player. I think the desire for “proven veterans” is much more with the Martys and Daugherty types, who don’t necessarily pay that much attention to the non-Reds parts of the baseball world.
Now, who’s the next Quinten? I’m not convinced that it’s Nelson Cruz, but I know a lot less about him than I did about Quintin. (I CANNOT spell that guy’s name).
Cruz would provide nice symmetry, as he, L.Nix, and Cordero were all involved in the same Carlos Lee trade.
Bill – Frazier and Francisco are considered our best two hitting prospects. It was Francisco, not Frazier, who was named THE best hitting prospect. However, I could see how you could make the argument you are making.
As for Alonso. No, he hasn’t done anything yet. However, everything I’ve read suggests he is the starting 1B in 2010.
Chris – nice get on the Carlos Lee trade.
Ah, thank you, Chris! And here I thought no one remembered… (sniff)…
Yeah, last offseason I think I shamelessly and relentlessly plugged Quentin (yes!), Matt Murton (oops), and Jonathan Sanchez (eh).
This offseason, my causes are Milton Bradley (oops), Nelson Cruz, Jonny Gomes, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Sanchez still.
Basically, I really get a kick out of looking around for someone who I think is undervalued. Of course… I’m basically just some dufus w/ an internet connection ranting on a blog… but hey, aren’t we all?
Anyway, that’s why I get my hackles up about going after “proven” guys, b/c if that’s all you do, you’re almost always overpaying. It’s “buying high.”
I just want to see the Reds being clever and innovative for once — selling high (Brandon Phillips perhaps??) and buying low. THAT is how you can be a mid-market team and still be good.
That’s all “Moneyball” is about, in my opinion. Buy low, sell high… and figure out what baseball as a whole undervalues right now. At the time of the book, it was low-average, high-OBP guys. Also “funny-looking” guys that wouldn’t appeal to scouts. Now… who knows what it is?
All I’m doing is looking around for guys who have promising minor league numbers who have been duds so far but are still reasonably young.
We’ll see…
Just a note that San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that the Yankees want to trade Nady and are not looking to trade Swisher at this point.
That’s all “Moneyball” is about, in my opinion. Buy low, sell high… and figure out what baseball as a whole undervalues right now. At the time of the book, it was low-average, high-OBP guys. Also “funny-looking” guys that wouldn’t appeal to scouts. Now… who knows what it is?
Based on some recent signings (or lack thereof), I’d say teams undervalue players like Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu.
I’ve been waiting for someone (i.e., Dan) to bring up Sanchez again. Some commenters at this blog make a compelling case that he could be a high injury risk this season. (According to the metrics they use, Cueto and Volquez should be just fine.)
Interesting. Never heard that about Sanchez.
Yeah, I’m just a hack at a computer honestly, and I know nothing about predicting injuries, so if that’s true then maybe he’s not such a great idea.
I just love Sanchez’s numbers. Specifically…
–I love his eye-popping K rates in the minors (and pretty good in the majors too).
–I love his left-handedness.
–I love the fact that his BABIP the last 2 years have been abnormally high, and that normally means just “bad luck” — as in, likely to improve.
But, if he’s an injury risk, I may be barking up the wrong tree.
Dan is absolutely right; to re-use an over-used cliche, we need to think out of the box.
Look at it this way: yes, grabbing the Carlos Quentins (or TB’s Carlos, Pena) often don’t work out. But the risk is minimal.
If you are the Reds, you MUST FIND the occasional Diamond in the Rough (DIR), with out DIRs, we can’t compete with the Cubs, because our payroll will be less.
We have to have some stock hit big.
The Red Sox do this better than anybody AND they have money to burn; a devastating combination. Every year they sign a Smoltz or a David Ortiz or a Bartolo Colon. They often don’t work, but when they do, WOW.
We don’t need reliable, low upside guys. The Lance Nixes (Nixi?) of the world are easy to get. We need unreliable high upside guys who may be great, but also may be released.
Look at it this way. What was the last time you heard a Reds move and thought (at the time) WOW great job, that could really, really work out, but it also might fail miserably.
For me only one stands out; Rule 5ing Josh Hamilton.
Why? Did I think he would be awesome? No, but there was a chance he could be, albeit small (I thought). It was creative.
Getting Weeks would be creative. That is Dan’s point, I think.
(As an aside, this was, as far as I can tell, Jim Bowden’s ONLY strength as a GM).
I think Bowden backlash has made the Reds organization gun-shy on high-risk, high-reward guys, undeniably influenced by local media. Instead, we get signings like Hatteberg, Aurilia, Taveras.
That same stupid backlash thinking is why we have fast guys and “havoc” instead of Adam Dunn.
As for current “Moneyball” (i.e. Oakland A’s) philosophy…
It’s my understanding they still value pitching, the closer to major league ready the better…still value OBP and power…but, they’re now supposed to be focusing on defensive analysis….
With the passing of the steroid era, and power on it’s way down, defensive ability will matter more as fewer runs will be scored.
I wouldn’t be surprised if stolen bases strategy comes back into vogue, but I think that’s still some time away.
Krivsky’s 2 best moves of all, by far, were Hamilton and Phillips. Both were high-risk, high-upside, like Dave E. said.
(And to be fair, even though it was low-risk, low-upside, Hatteberg did work out surprisingly well. He brought some nice OBP.)
I haven’t seen anything but conservative moves out of Jocketty. I’m still waiting for one of his killer Edmonds-like or McGwire-like deals, like he did in St. Louis.
I’ll disagree with Dan on one thing: I think both the Hamilton and BP moves were LOW-risk/high-upside. The Reds gave up next to nothing for either guy.
LOVE the low-risk, high upside gambles. The trouble is distinguishing between the guys who actually have a high upside and the cruddy guys.
It’s the difference between taking a gamble on Josh Hamilton and taking a gamble on, say, Steve Avery.
Even Avery types are only a problem if they get too much playing time.
Heck his 96 IP (5.16 ERA) arguably killed that 1999 Reds team.
Dan – They may be coming. It’s still early. One of Krivsky’s better moves – Cody Ross acquisition. Was followed by one of Krivsky’s worst – Cody Ross departure.
The problem is Burrell was the only guy out there that fits the right handed hitting left fielder who can bat cleanup. I’m sorry but where in Rocco’s career has he shown that ability? The other right handed FA mentioned have no business batting in that slot. It’s easy to say Jockety should have signed this guy and that guy, but did Pat want to come here? Does it have to be a right hander? I don’t thing we should limit it to that. Abreu had a higher average and slugging percentage against lefties last year why eliminate him because he is a lefty? Votto hits about the same against both so Bruce is the only guy we can’t put next to another lefty that can’t hit lefties. Votto is ready to be in 3,4, or 5 spot. Bruce still has to hit for average and make contact more before we pencil him in at 3 or 4.
Chris – in terms of what we gave up (basically nothing), I’ll agree that Hamilton and Phillips were very low-risk.
I guess what I meant was, in terms of actual performance, they were high-risk. There was a very good chance that both of them were DONE at the MLB level. Which is exactly why it took so little to get them.
Whatever we call them, these are the kinds of moves I love, and really the kinds we need to be looking for to dig out of the hole we’re in.
And while we’re at it…
“You’re the worst kind… You’re high-maintenance, but you think you’re low.”
Fantastic line. It still kills. (Women LOVE it too, I have to tell you…)
rkitz – I don’t care how much Jay Bruce strikes out. He needs to get on base more to be a 3 or 4 hitter.
And I think he will — he’s just 21!
But I’m just sayin’… an OBP of .314 does not help score runs much.
Hey, I just looked up Reds TEAM splits for 2008. I had no idea this was true!
Reds vs. RHP: .243/.314/.403
Reds vs. LHP: .257/.336/.420
!!
I had no idea!
The worst split of all in there was actually RH batters vs. RH pitchers (.227/.288/.346). Wow that’s bad.
SHHHHHHHHH!!!! Don’t question conventional wisdom. This team needed to get faster, more right-handedy, less Dunnish, and more havocy.
“Don’t question conventional wisdom. This team needed to get faster, more right-handedy, less Dunnish, and more havocy.”
…with a decided veteran presence which knows how to play the game the right way and won’t clog up the bases.
Remember: Base runners either create havoc or they create clogs. And if your not fast, well, I guess everyone knows what you create….
“havocy”…I like it.
I agree – I LOVE “havocy.”
I feel like it’s only January 9th but we already have the hands-down winner for “New Word of the Year”!
Dan,
Yes, I can see the use of the word in every single game thread someone gets picked off or caught in a rundown.
If we really wanted havoc, why did we trade Ryan Freel?
I think I saw his picture in the dictionary next to the word.
I wasn’t a Freel fan; one can hustle, but some judgment is required; however, a favorite quote of mine from Freel…
I believe the Reds had just acquired Brandon Phillips and Freel had just had what had been his best season…Freel, upon being pulled over by a policeman in Florida, when asked his career?
“unemployed”