I’d think just the same Bobby Abreu would take less to play for the Anaheim Angels or say the Dodgers, more of a marquee club with a solid chance at the post season instead of coming to Cincy.

I also don’t get the Cubs signing Milton Bradley at all. The guy can hit, but he cannot stay healthy and the guy had some odd stuff happen around him. Considering how the clubhouse in Chicago turned upon itself under Dusty down the stretch a few years ago and pretty much poisoned the club, I could see this backfiring. Maybe Bradley is an OK guy and just a bit misunderstood from a few things that have happened on the diamond, I don’t know.

The Reds look shy in the outfield, but I think they should have more options to make deal in May or June than right now. There is just not that many players that seem available that really fit what we need at a price we can pay.

As for LF…I mean, it’s an embarrassing comparison. Oddly…and I truly mean oddly…I saw one defensive metric where Dunn actually had a plus season in LF last season…now, I’m not saying I believe it, and I don’t have the source handy, but I DID read that…

I do think defensive analysis has improved, but the defensive numbers are still questionable…

As for someone else’s comment about the offense being all right…I think we’ll have one of the worst offenses in baseball in a park that fans think is offensive friendly…

Hernandez vs. the 3-headed monster (EVEN)
At the time, I don’t think anyone realized how many at-bats Bako would get. If you would give most of the starts to David Ross and chip in more playing time for Javier Valentin, I think this comparison is a wash. Obviously, the Reds front office think Hernandez will benefit from a change of scenery and play like he did 3 years ago. If that’s true, Hernandez would be an upgrade.

Hairston (on paper the current starting SS) vs. Keppinger (EVEN)
Interesting that like Hairston this offseason, Keppinger was coming back as a fan favorite expected to continue playing over his head. He hit .332/.400/.477 in 2007 and was a .300+ hitter in AAA. Things were going well until he got hurt, and he didn’t rebound well in the 2nd half. Hairston played a lot at SS in his absence and put up number similar to Kepp’s 2007. I don’t think Hairston has the same chance to repeat his previous year’s numbers as Kepp did. (EVEN at best)

Dickerson vs. Dunn (ADV DUNN)
Dickerson would have been my choice in CF for at least the ABs vs RHP. As a LFer, the edge obviously goes to Dunn.

Taveras vs. Patterson (EVEN)
Patterson entered 2008 having hit .270 each of the previous 2 years, 310obp, 400slg. Taveras comes to the team this year fresh off a .251/.308/.296 performance. His career numbers are in line with what he did in Houston. (.283/.331/.337) Essentially Patterson without power. They are too similar to call Taveras an upgrade, IMHO.

Bruce vs. Griffey (EVEN)
Even though Griffey lost a little power in 2008, on opening day, Griffey was coming off a .277/.372/.496 season with 30hr and 903rbi. His 3rd consecutive year of playing mostly healthy and of putting up avg to above avg numbers. Obv in 2009 I’d rather have Bruce than the 39-yr-old Griffey, but based on opening day outlooks at this position, I think most folk would be happy in 2009 if Bruce matched Griffey 2007 production.

Owings vs. Fogg (EVEN at best)
Fogg had been a consistent 5.00 ERA pitcher for 3 consecutive years until coming to Cincinnati. Who knows whether Owings is healthy, can stay healthy, and can pitch successfully in the bigs.

Bullpen (ADV 2008 bullpen)
I see no improvements. In fact the loss of Affeldt (for who?) leaves the bullpen weaker.

Could this be the first year in a while the Reds don’t have opening day with 3 catchers on the 25 man?

What will happen?

Keppinger is not a shortstop, but he’s a much better hitter than he showed last year, especially after his knee injury. His numbers will improve.

Hairston’s OPS has surpassed 740 twice in his career out of 11 seasons: last year and 2004. His career OPS is 700 and he’s not getting younger; if you want bat on the ball, Keppinger strikes out once every 20 plate appearances…Hairston one of every nine; if he’s our answer for shortstop, we’re asking the wrong question…or may be the wrong manager?

Bruce will take a big step forward; Votto will probabaly take a small step backward (he’ll rebound…I don’t think it will be a big sophomore slump); Phillips will improve some, not a lot…he’s reached peak and his OBP isn’t going to change without a change in hitting approach

Hernandez will decline; Encarnacion will improve some; Taveras will be awful…his defense will not impress…but he will be fast and fans will talk about how important it is that he can steal a base when we need one late in the game….

As for the bench…Dickerson won’t be nearly as good as many hope, but better than the prospect reports said a few years ago; Hanigan will hit an empty .260 but not embarrass anyone; Nix is AAA filler and major league fodder; all the reserve infielders we called up last year reminded me of 1993 when I think about 300 players played for Davey Johnson that year…

On Bill James website (creatively named billjamesonline), he posted winning percentages for teams that score a certain number of runs the other day; I’ll just say the over-under was 5 runs…over 5 runs a game scoring, and preventing 5 runs a game is the difference….

Teams that score five runs in a game last year won 63 percent of the time; if a team scored four, it won 48% of the time.

How many runs do you think we’ll score per game?

As for pitching; Harang will improve, but Baker will use him too much and he’ll be tired/hurting at season’s end; Arroyo will be inconsistent; Volquez will decline; Cueto should improve…if he controls the home run ball…if not, I’ll get a chance to see him in Louisville….Owings was hurt when we got him..anything from him is a bonus in my opinion (until we evaluate what we lost in the trade…was he better than a draft pick?); Bailey will be traded

As for relievers…Cordero is overrated and overpaid (what a waste of money that is..huge contract on a bad team for a closer); Bray will improve; Lincoln will decline; Rhodes will play as expected, but not as good as Affeldt; Weathers will be, well, Weathers; Burton will be good; Masset will surprise;

this team has not improved…without a huge change in quality personnel, teams don’t typically make big changes in their records; and history demonstrates that teams that improve their records one year (as we did last year) typically decline the next year unless there is a huge change in personnel where quality players are acquired or several players take big steps forward (career years as the Reds did in 1999)…our players are too young for that to happen

Compare the opening day rosters. Either the same players are returning, or the Reds have made an upgrade. Whether it is margainal or not is up for debate but Taveras, Owings, Bruce and Hernandez are upgrades plain and simple. Maybe not enough to contend, but certainly upgrades.

The only outlier is Dunn. I’ll give you that. If Dickerson is the starting LF, then yeah, the Reds opening day roster will not be as good. BUT Dunn’s value last year was 28.6 with the bat and -22.8 with his glove. His value wins according to fangraphs was 1.9. If the Reds sign Dye (2.2 value wins) or Nady (3.6 value wins) the Reds’ roster will be improved no question.

Uh, yeah it can. I don’t think the final month and a half w/o Dunn is proof of anything. They had some better pitching down that stretch…allowing 5.2 runs per game pre trades and 4.4 runs per game after the trades.

And of course, that “winning record w/o Dunn” completely ignores the 1-9 record and 68 runs they gave up in 10 games w/o Junior before Dunn was traded.

The Reds have re-signed many of the same relief pitchers, re-signed Hairston (who’s almost a given to not repeat his career year), and acquired Taveras (Patterson w/ less power) and Hernandez (better hitter but worse defense than Bako.)

How have they improved?

Any improvements in the 2009 team will have to come from Harang and Arroyo not posting near-5.00 ERA’s again. Those two work in the 3.00-4.00 range most of the year, and you’ll see a team with a much better shot at .500.

I still like the idea of packaging Encarnacion, who’s a risk to lose his trade value (or substantially increase it, I realize), in a trade for Adrian Beltre. He’d really improve the defense and add a big, right-handed bat to the middle of the lineup, and probably walk as a Type A free agent just as Frazier is ready to step in and contribute.

“Alex Gonzalez is not expected to be ready for 2009, so Hairston will be the starting shortstop in Cincinnati.”

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/red-sign-jerry.html

What is more concerning is how will he be used? He’s a bench player. If the bench players are going to fill starting roles (SS, OF, wherever), then this team is not going to be good this year. If there are good starters keeping guys like Hairston, Keppinger, Taveras, on the bench, then I’m much more optimistic about this team’s chances.