Loading ...Am I the only one who would have loved to have seen the Reds sign Pat Burrell for two years and $16 million? For that matter, I would have been all over Milton Bradley for three years and $30 million.
Yeah, I know there’s no guarantee the Reds could have gotten those guys at those prices. Heck, if I were a player, I’d probably rather play for Tampa Bay or Chicago, too.
Still, we’re going to be stuck with an outfield of Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston, Jr., and Jay Bruce. I would have taken Burrell or Bradley in a heartbeat, and their asking prices, as it turns out, were quite reasonable.
I think I’ve narrowed it down to two choices:
1) We really don’t want to win; we want to keep payrolls low, after all we’re making money; have prestige of owning a big league team;
2) With the lower than expected salaries, we’re fearing a collusion lawsuit, so we’ll just stay out of the discussion altogether
I realize we’re allegedly waiting for the future…but, it kind of reminds of a joke my son told me last night….
What’s soon, but never comes?
Tomorrow….
I see no reason why we shouldn’t offer Abreu a similar type deal to what Burrell has. A two year deal would not really throw off any long term plans. Alonso is probably not going to be in the majors this year, so Votto is safe at first. Next year then we can move Bruce to center Abreu in RF and Votto in left and put Alonso at 1b.
2 years for 8-10 million would be pretty good for a player like Abreu. Would drastically improve our OBP too. Though we know how Reds fans feel about players taking a walk… at least Abreu hits close to .300 though. He is pretty poor defensively as well.
If this team wasn’t loaded with players who were either in the Majors or on the cusp of the Majors, I’d be all for spending big on players like Bradley, Burrell or Abreu. But those players wouldn’t be enough to move this season’s team into contention, and they’d be expensive and unnecessary starting next season.
This year’s team still has too many holes to plausibly contend, so there’s no sense wasting money on payroll that would be better spent on signing bonuses for draftees and internationals or to buy out Bruce’s arbitration and free agent seasons. Once the next round of rookies is ready, probably next season, that’s when they should look at adding a big-money contributor.
Chad,
I don’t think the Reds could have gotten those guys at those prices, but Burrell especially, I would have offered 10 million a year for 2 years. Easily. Without thinking about it. For two years and I can get a plus bat into my lineup? Absolutely.
I have been bullish on bringing Dunn back because I figured it would cost too much for too long, but after this if he can agree to 2 years I am all over it.
Abreu is still asking for $48 million over three years. He won’t get it, but he probably won’t sign for less just yet.
We have all cried about wanting sustained success like the Cardinals. I think the Reds previous mindset of power, above average, speed and defense are over.
It is going to be a team of offensive interchangable/expendable matchup parts with speed, defense and pitching and some power. If you think about the Jocketty Cardinals that seemed to always be the plan.
They acquired one offensive power in McGwire and developed one in Pujols. Votto and Bruce might be on the way to that.
Burrel nor Bradley provided those parts, just the usual short term fixes of the offense. As long Catelini sticks with a plan this time I am with them. It’s when the plan changes every other year there is a problem.
In the Furcal discussions, the Royals came out and said it would take 4 years/$44M to sign him, then he ends up going back to the Dodgers for 3/$30.
I could easily see that being true of some players and the Reds.
Did the Phillies just never make Burrell an offer? Or he was ready to move on, period? On the surface, they look pretty foolish signing Ibanez for 3yr/$31.5M. (not to mention he’s left-handed and the team’s two best hitters are also left-handed…how will the Phillies survive 2009!)
I would say no to Bradley. I look forward to him melting down in a Cubs uniform sometime in the next season or two. It couldn’t have happened to a nicer team.
Greg D-
Burrell hit .210 after the All-Star Break with but 29 RBI. The Phillies had no intention of signing him whatsoever so the price was never an issue. He’s slow afield and afoot and they wanted to go in a different direction with a player who was more consistent and not prone to extended slumps. Ibanez was obviously older and left-handed but filled the bill in the other ways that mattered to the Philadelphia brass. Burrell, who wanted to stay, never received any offer from the Phils.
>> 1) We really don’t want to win; we want to keep payrolls low, after all we’re making money; have prestige of owning a big league team;
there is no doubt the Reds have made no effort to try and win and all the effort to keep payrolls low.
The offense was mediocre to begin with and they have done nothing to replace Dunn’s bat.
We replaced a bad Patterson with a bad Taveras
We replaced no-hit catchers with no-hit catchers
We did nothing to fill the hole at SS
The only hope for any improvement in the offense is that all the young guys improve. EE, Bruce, and Votto. I guess Phillips had a mediocre year at the plate so maybe he can improve as well.
a friend sent me this nice one the other day to make fun of the Reds.
“Who replaces a 29/79 with a 27/72 and pretends they are improving their team”
and in case you need help with those #s. Here is a list of the worst hitting active OFers with at least 2000 PA
**OPS+** Player
72 *Willy Taveras
75 Endy Chavez
79 *Corey Patterson
83 Orlando Palmeiro
84 Juan Pierre
85 Scott Podsednik
89 Emil Brown
89 Dave Roberts
91 *Ryan Freel
91 Rob Mackowiak
91 Ricky Ledee
92 Jeff Francoeur
92 Gabe Kapler
93 Jay Payton
94 *Brady Clark
looking at the top run producing OF with at least 2000 PA
Jr is 7th, Dunn 12th, Burrell 21st, and Bradley 24th
Mark,
You are conveniently forgetting about Jocketty and St Louis with guys like Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, JD Drew and Ray Lankford to go with a guy like McGwire or a Pujols. Jocketty built his teams around power.
“We have all cried about wanting sustained success like the Cardinals.”
Yes, between 2000-2006 they made the playoffs 6 out of 7 times. Those teams always had good pitching.
Those teams also had Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds (CF defense, hit 300, slg over 500-600. They always had power from at least a 3rd source, often 4 or more players: McGwire, Lankford, JD Drew, Rolen, Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker.
NO way would I have sunk 3yr/30MM in Bradley…When was the last time he played more than 100g in the OF??? 2004….
Last year he played 20 games in the OF…20! The other 100+ was split btwn DH & PH duties. The Cubs took a major gamble, IMO.
We would have had to pay more than what the Rays did for Burrell…but I agree w/ Doug, 2yr/20MM would have been just fine w/ me…But oh well…Strike another bat off the list.
The “misses” that really get my goat….
1) Letting Rivera get away for what seems like a very reasonable contract, when he was clearly FA RHB LF target #1…
2) Whiffing on the Willingham/Olsen trade w/ the Marlins…A young LHSP & RHB LF w/ 25hr/75rbi potential to platoon w/ CD (both for roughly $5MM total in 2009)…(I’d have seriously considered giving up Bailey & Valiaka in that deal).
3) Not even considering taking on a LHB OF (Abreu, Dunn, Anderson), even on a short-term deal. A Real Head-shaker….
As it stand now, WJ better get Baldelli locked up to platoon w/ Dickerson in LF…and let’s hope we can get 100-110 games out of him. He has all kinds of upside, if the medical situation is treatable. And WJ seems to think the med. staff has a handle on Rocco’s condition/limitations. I just hope Rocco sees the opportunity that awaits in GABP.
>> “Yes, between 2000-2006 they made the playoffs 6 out of 7 times. Those teams always had good pitching. ”
No doubt. Here is a little comparison
From 2000-2006 Stl had a team ERA of 4.06 which is .28 better than league average which was the 7th best in baseball during that period. Obviously the main teams better were the As and Braves. The As were #1 by a mile with a team ERA .63 better than league average.
On the other hand the Reds had a team ERA of 4.77 which was .42 BELOW league average and 26th in baseball
During the same time period the Cardinals had a .785 OPS which was .007 better than league average and 7th in baseball. The Yanks were #1.
The Reds had a .756 OPS which is .022 below league average and and 17th in baseball.
The big contributors on offense were
Stl: Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria, Drew and McGwire
Cin: Jr, Dunn and Larkin
The big contributing pitchers
Stl: Carpenter, Kile, Isringhousen, Morris, Kline, W Williams, Veras, and Supan
Cin: Arroyo, Williamson, Dessens, and Harang
I’m glad that we didn’t get Milton Bradley for two reasons: 1) I have serious issues with his character – he’s a real piece of work, and 2) There’s no guarentee that he’s going to be able to play in the outfield for any decent number of games. He played in a total of 126 games in 2008 (his most, by far, since 2004) – 100 of those games was at DH.
So either our team management has misjudged this year’s market value of players (it seems that many teams have) or we’ve decided it’s a youth movement or bust. (which is dreaming, but could pay off)
As a Baseball Prospectus article led with today, what’s a slugging outfielder worth when there are (have been) so many available?
Surprisingly enough, one of the writers mentioned the five best fits for Manny Ramirez (at this point), that is, teams with a “short-term horizon and weak options” would include the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Braves, and….Reds.
Defense or not, distraction or not, 37 years old or not, youth movement or not….I’d open the pocket book and sign him for three years….
Here is an idea sign Hairston as a UTILITY player and then talk to the Yankees about Nady since there have been rumors that the Yankees are trying to move OF’s. If you have to trade an innings eater like Arroyo and a prospect to get Nady do it and then look into a cheaper 4th/5th starter option like Randy Wolf on a 1 to 2 year deal allowing the youngsters to get more experience before being brought up.
OF = Bruce, Tavares, and Nady with Hairston/Dickerson as backups and if you can sign Baldelli as another OF do that as well.
SP = Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Wolf, Owings (allow youngsters to continue to get experience and now you have a lefty in the rotation)
I know it isn’t this easy and an outfield of Bruce, Tavares and Nady isn’t amazing it is solid and allows you to build a decent outfield without breaking the bank or trading away the farm.
How about we trade Bailey and some more for Swisher?
If Nady isn’t going to put you over the top why would you trade for one year of him?
I see the “Moneyball A’s” went out and addressed their offensive issues by trading for Matt Holliday and (today) signing Jason Giambi.
He is a versatile player that can help put you over the top but no one player will ever put a team over the top. It is a team that plays together and likes one another that goes over the top.
Look at the Yankees of the past few years a team of all-stars but they haven’t won anything with that formula with that strategy.
A guy like Nady along with Bruce, Votto, and Phillips make a solid core as long as they continue to improve. Then if EE can find an accurate arm from third and the bullpen and starters continue to improve.
That can put you over the top. Plus Nady next year wont’ (in my opinion) be out of the Reds price range and could be resigned.
Nady’s agent is Scott Boras and if he has a good 2009 you can bet he’d be out of the Reds’ price range.
Keith Law mentioned months ago, and I tend to agree, that the Reds HAVE a surplus of outfielders and I quote “as soon as they realize Encarnacion cannot play third base.” That is incredibly true.
By all accounts:
1) Bruce is your right fielder for the next 7-8 years.
2) Yonder Alonso will be up by 2010. Where does Votto play?
3) Frazier will likely be up in mid 2010. Is he 3B or LF? Where does that put E5 and Votto?
4) Francisco could be up as early as 2010 but probably 2011. Where does that put Frazier?
5) What about Dorn?
6) What about Dickerson?
We have 6 guys that are going to do battle for 3 spots. So sinking three years into a player is a waste of resources.
4)
Still the Reds’ pitching is too good not to add a run producer now because the Reds COULD surprise. I don’t see any move the Cubs made and say WOW they improved. If anything, I think the Cubs took a significant step backward. So did the Brewers. The team to beat will be St. Louis.
I mentioned the Nady idea in another thread and think that he is the perfect fit. He is arb eligible and won’t be expensive. He should net a decent enough prospect in a trade – maybe a Frazier, but given what was dealt for him, he won’t cost us the farm.
A lineup of
Taveras/Dickerson
Votto
Nady
Bruce
Phillips
Encarnacion
Hernandez
Gonzalez/Keppinger
looks okay. If the Reds pitching can keep us in games, then maybe you take a gamble in July and look to add another BIG bat. If not, dump Nady and Hernandez for prospects and bring up Stubbs, Frazier and Alonso.
a heathy Roco, is about equal to a Matt Holliday
Sign Randy Wolfe And Roco And if the whole team stays heathy and a few guys have big years, we will CONTEND.
Way too much love for a mediocrity like Xavier Nady in here.
Anybody ever consider that maybe Burrell didn’t get an offer from Philly, so he went from one pennant winner to another for a reduced rate? Maybe because he wanted to be back in the playoffs asap?
Players want to win, too. If they’re going to play for a team that sucks, it’ll cost that team more money. Hence the Reds can’t sign anyone of note. It takes money, sure, but it also takes actually being a good team for someone good to want to play here for a reduced rate.
John-
Amen. Walt is having trouble even talking to front line players because they just don’t want to play in Cincy. Baltimore has the same problem. As do many others. Sure, money is an issue and so are many other things. But the Reds are losers right now and have been this way for a good while. The season is too damned long to be hanging your heads on the bus back to the hotel night after night.
If the money is good somewhere else where there seems to be hope of making the postseason, why would you sign with the Rojos? Big Bob has not shown the desire to go above market rate just yet. And probably will not.
So I suppose your best bet is to be patient and hope some of the young players develop. But there will be a lot of losses along this path.
A lot.
Has anyone noticed the batting order listed in the photo on the top of the page? As bad as things are now, that lineup was pitiful. I couldn’t even remember a couple of the names. It conjures up the early 80’s with Dan Driessen leading the Reds with 57 RBI–wow!
Here’s what I don’t understand: What’s the point of spending moderate money ($4-8M) on barely-above-replacement-level scrubs like Taveras and Ramon Hernandez, when you could get actual, good-not-great players for $10M?
Either spend, or don’t spend. Contend, or rebuild. This middle ground crap is just wasting money.
I got my “flex-plan” season ticket renewal form Monday. I think I want to write more about this, but there’s not a chance in hell I’m writing them another check for $385.
Chris –
Who should the Reds have gotten behind the plate if not Hernandez? Gerald Laird? Value wins has Hernandez ahead of Laird. Those are the only two catchers which moved this offseason. Unless I’m mistaken. So, maybe make the case that the Reds could have traded for Teagarden, but if Texas is asking for Buccholz or Masterson+1 for Teagarden, what’s the price for the Reds? Cueto and Frazier? No thank you.
Who should the Reds have gotten to man CF? You’re a stats guy but ignore Fangraphs which says that the Reds paid less than market for him and that if his OBP returns to .333 range he is worth 2.4 value wins. What other available CF is there? Randy Winn. You want freaking Randy Winn?
I have a sneaking suspicion that had the Reds done nothing you would be complaining the Reds didn’t try to improve and are stuck in perpetual rebuilding mode.
People more qualified than you or I decided that Taveras and Hernandez were upgrades over current in house options. Your negativity is bordering on obnoxious. Get a new team if they break your hear man. It’s not worth it. Johnny Bench and Pete Rose aren’t going to run out of the dugout.
Question, if Taveras has a .350 OBP steals 60 bases and scores 100 runs, and if Hernandez goes for .275/.325/.450 with 19 HRs in the 7th hole and both play a capable D? It’s almost like you want these guys to fail just so you can say you are right. That’s harsh.
yeah I don’t know why everyone is so high on Nady here?
A healthy Rocco Baldelli I don’t think is equal to a Matt Holliday, even with Holliday’s home/road splits. It would be nice to sign him…
But I still advocate trying to go for Abreu. See if he atleast has interest
The Rays get Burrell, the Reds get Hairston Jr. Perfect.
I will take Hairston at $2 million. I won’t complain about that. I just have to really hope that the Reds aren’t done though, because we still can’t sniff .500 at this point.
Matt – Regarding Abreu, keep in mind he is LH. I personally don’t think that matters as his righty/lefty splits are identical in terms of avgerage. But Jocketty is following conventional wisdom that requires Bruce and Votto to be split by a RH. Given that Abreu is looking for a Milton Bradley type deal at age 34 and you start to get a better understanding why Abreu will not be playing for the Reds next season.
As for Nady, I’m not sure what’s not to like. He isn’t the sexiest player but .305/.357/.510 is nothing to sneeze at. While he is replacement level defensively in RF you can expect a jump of about a win defensively if moved to LF. Is he the best option? Probably not, but he is the best available option AND he is the short term solution the Reds are looking to acquire.
I’ll take Hairston at Short over Keppinger any day.
Hairston will get millions, but it’s not deserved, and I think most Reds fans are overrating what he will do this year.
It sounds like Pokey Reese syndrome to me…a guy hits a total outlier for his skillset/career norms, at age 33 (past prime) and the Reds seem to think he possesses the keys to the kingdom.
Multimillion dollar contracts to journeymen and replaceable parts are the payroll problem, not big salaries to star players whom actually add wins to the team.
While Keppinger is not a shortstop, (why wasn’t he at 2b and Phillips at SS?), Hairston’s got 40 career games at shortstop in the majors out of 807 career games, and 34 of those 40 came last year.
What makes anyone think he’s become a shortstop at age 33?
Now Honus Wagner became the world’s greatest shortstop ever at age 29 when the Pirates finally left him there….I just don’t see Hairston having that skillset….
Chris is right…pay players to carry the team and surround them with role players rather than signing mediocrity….
I think Hairston is worth his 2 million. I don’t expect him to OPS anything better than .775 either. Still, he does one thing well that leads to success for the most part in GABP and thats put the ball in play a lot. He will draw some walks as well. He certainly isn’t the .850 OPS guy he showed last year, but I don’t think he is the .700 OPS guy his career suggests either.
If the Reds thought Hairston possessed the keys to the kingdom I doubt it would be just a one year deal.
I think the Hairston signing is a good and solid one. If Gonzalez gets healthy for once Hairston can be the utility guy he should be. If an outfielder is hurt or really underproducing he can swap in for them. If he doesn’t produce they can let Keppinger take back over.
I’m not looking for Hairston to repeat 2008 but frankly if he can put up similar numbers it’s worth it. To me 2 million plus incentives for a guy who when healthy really helped the team last season isn’t that bad of a deal.
I also wonder if not having to play outfield as much will help him stay on the field and off the DL.
Hairston’s versatile and gives us depth. The good news about his being penciled in for SS is that he won’t be our LFer.
So who’s the OFer going to be ? WJ has a growing interest in Baldelli, but it’s not clear that he’s interested in us.
People here like Nady because while with Pittsburgh he beat the crap out of our pitching.
Oh yea…what’s the odds on Alex Gonzalez playing a single game in a Reds uniform again?
People rage about Patterson’s contract or Taveras or whoever else may be making more than a million dollars on the team but Gonzalez for what he’s done has just been an awful signing. Note I’m not dogging the original signing…at the time not assuming he’d be injured for two years it wasn’t a bad deal.
A one year 2 million dollar deal is well worth it in my opinion.
It cannot be questioned that the Reds have improved the team from a year ago. Taveras is an upgrade over Patterson. Ramon Hernandez is an upgrade over Bako. Owings is an upgrade over Josh Fogg.
The Reds were .500 without Dunn and Griffey. Griffey’s “production” last year is easily matched. While I don’t think Dunn’s offensive value can be completely replaced, I do think the overall value wins can be matched given whomever we acquire will have replacement level or better defense.
I see no reason why this group cannot approach or surpass .500.
Hairston at $2 million is fair, and it shows how ridiculous the Taveras at $6.5 million for 2 years is.
What is more concerning is how will he be used? He’s a bench player. If the bench players are going to fill starting roles (SS, OF, wherever), then this team is not going to be good this year. If there are good starters keeping guys like Hairston, Keppinger, Taveras, on the bench, then I’m much more optimistic about this team’s chances.
Nady cheap? He made $3.35M last season and is coming off a career high .867 OPS last season at 29 years old. He OPS’d .790 and .805 the previous two years and is at .793 for his career. Nady will cost us prospects in trade and will likely be here for one season at the what, something like $6M – $8M he wins in arbitration. All that for someone who will be hard pressed to outperform Encarnacion at the plate. He’s an average OF. I’m not sure he’s worth the prospect and salary he will get coming off a career year for most likely one year of him at 30 years old.
Hadn’t read this before today, regarding Gonzalez:
“Alex Gonzalez is not expected to be ready for 2009, so Hairston will be the starting shortstop in Cincinnati.”
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/red-sign-jerry.html
Hernandez is an improvement over Bako, but you’d be hard pressed to convince me he is currently better than David Ross who was released last season for some mystery reason.
Nady is all fine and good, but I wouldn’t give up as much in a trade as the Yankees are likely to ask, particularly not when he’s a lock to test free agency next season.
I still like the idea of packaging Encarnacion, who’s a risk to lose his trade value (or substantially increase it, I realize), in a trade for Adrian Beltre. He’d really improve the defense and add a big, right-handed bat to the middle of the lineup, and probably walk as a Type A free agent just as Frazier is ready to step in and contribute.
GregD: Taveras was signed to start, and my guess is even if someone like Stubbs comes to ST and tears the cover off the ball, they’ll make up some crap about how he “needs more seasoning” and send him to AAA so they can start Taveras instead. Happened to Bruce last year.
“It cannot be questioned that the Reds have improved the team from a year ago. ”
Uh, yeah it can. I don’t think the final month and a half w/o Dunn is proof of anything. They had some better pitching down that stretch…allowing 5.2 runs per game pre trades and 4.4 runs per game after the trades.
And of course, that “winning record w/o Dunn” completely ignores the 1-9 record and 68 runs they gave up in 10 games w/o Junior before Dunn was traded.
The Reds have re-signed many of the same relief pitchers, re-signed Hairston (who’s almost a given to not repeat his career year), and acquired Taveras (Patterson w/ less power) and Hernandez (better hitter but worse defense than Bako.)
How have they improved?
Any improvements in the 2009 team will have to come from Harang and Arroyo not posting near-5.00 ERA’s again. Those two work in the 3.00-4.00 range most of the year, and you’ll see a team with a much better shot at .500.
GregD –
Compare the opening day rosters. Either the same players are returning, or the Reds have made an upgrade. Whether it is margainal or not is up for debate but Taveras, Owings, Bruce and Hernandez are upgrades plain and simple. Maybe not enough to contend, but certainly upgrades.
The only outlier is Dunn. I’ll give you that. If Dickerson is the starting LF, then yeah, the Reds opening day roster will not be as good. BUT Dunn’s value last year was 28.6 with the bat and -22.8 with his glove. His value wins according to fangraphs was 1.9. If the Reds sign Dye (2.2 value wins) or Nady (3.6 value wins) the Reds’ roster will be improved no question.
This team is not better than last year’s team.
What will happen?
Keppinger is not a shortstop, but he’s a much better hitter than he showed last year, especially after his knee injury. His numbers will improve.
Hairston’s OPS has surpassed 740 twice in his career out of 11 seasons: last year and 2004. His career OPS is 700 and he’s not getting younger; if you want bat on the ball, Keppinger strikes out once every 20 plate appearances…Hairston one of every nine; if he’s our answer for shortstop, we’re asking the wrong question…or may be the wrong manager?
Bruce will take a big step forward; Votto will probabaly take a small step backward (he’ll rebound…I don’t think it will be a big sophomore slump); Phillips will improve some, not a lot…he’s reached peak and his OBP isn’t going to change without a change in hitting approach
Hernandez will decline; Encarnacion will improve some; Taveras will be awful…his defense will not impress…but he will be fast and fans will talk about how important it is that he can steal a base when we need one late in the game….
As for the bench…Dickerson won’t be nearly as good as many hope, but better than the prospect reports said a few years ago; Hanigan will hit an empty .260 but not embarrass anyone; Nix is AAA filler and major league fodder; all the reserve infielders we called up last year reminded me of 1993 when I think about 300 players played for Davey Johnson that year…
On Bill James website (creatively named billjamesonline), he posted winning percentages for teams that score a certain number of runs the other day; I’ll just say the over-under was 5 runs…over 5 runs a game scoring, and preventing 5 runs a game is the difference….
Teams that score five runs in a game last year won 63 percent of the time; if a team scored four, it won 48% of the time.
How many runs do you think we’ll score per game?
As for pitching; Harang will improve, but Baker will use him too much and he’ll be tired/hurting at season’s end; Arroyo will be inconsistent; Volquez will decline; Cueto should improve…if he controls the home run ball…if not, I’ll get a chance to see him in Louisville….Owings was hurt when we got him..anything from him is a bonus in my opinion (until we evaluate what we lost in the trade…was he better than a draft pick?); Bailey will be traded
As for relievers…Cordero is overrated and overpaid (what a waste of money that is..huge contract on a bad team for a closer); Bray will improve; Lincoln will decline; Rhodes will play as expected, but not as good as Affeldt; Weathers will be, well, Weathers; Burton will be good; Masset will surprise;
this team has not improved…without a huge change in quality personnel, teams don’t typically make big changes in their records; and history demonstrates that teams that improve their records one year (as we did last year) typically decline the next year unless there is a huge change in personnel where quality players are acquired or several players take big steps forward (career years as the Reds did in 1999)…our players are too young for that to happen
Steve – I didn’t say that we would contend. I said that the changes made are upgrades over last year’s roster. The only outlier, which I would concede is Adam Dunn. However, if his value wins are replaced, which they may well be, then this team is ostensibly better. That’s not to say the improvements are enough. However, this is a better team than it was last year (depending on whether or not Dunn’s value wins are replaced).
Tom, Hernandez and Hanigan are more than likely a better duo than a tandem of Bako,Ross and Valentin.
Could this be the first year in a while the Reds don’t have opening day with 3 catchers on the 25 man?
Phil – that in itself is a victory!
The following compares my current outlook on opening day 2009 for new players compared to my outlook of players replaced from opening day 2008.
Hernandez vs. the 3-headed monster (EVEN)
At the time, I don’t think anyone realized how many at-bats Bako would get. If you would give most of the starts to David Ross and chip in more playing time for Javier Valentin, I think this comparison is a wash. Obviously, the Reds front office think Hernandez will benefit from a change of scenery and play like he did 3 years ago. If that’s true, Hernandez would be an upgrade.
Hairston (on paper the current starting SS) vs. Keppinger (EVEN)
Interesting that like Hairston this offseason, Keppinger was coming back as a fan favorite expected to continue playing over his head. He hit .332/.400/.477 in 2007 and was a .300+ hitter in AAA. Things were going well until he got hurt, and he didn’t rebound well in the 2nd half. Hairston played a lot at SS in his absence and put up number similar to Kepp’s 2007. I don’t think Hairston has the same chance to repeat his previous year’s numbers as Kepp did. (EVEN at best)
Dickerson vs. Dunn (ADV DUNN)
Dickerson would have been my choice in CF for at least the ABs vs RHP. As a LFer, the edge obviously goes to Dunn.
Taveras vs. Patterson (EVEN)
Patterson entered 2008 having hit .270 each of the previous 2 years, 310obp, 400slg. Taveras comes to the team this year fresh off a .251/.308/.296 performance. His career numbers are in line with what he did in Houston. (.283/.331/.337) Essentially Patterson without power. They are too similar to call Taveras an upgrade, IMHO.
Bruce vs. Griffey (EVEN)
Even though Griffey lost a little power in 2008, on opening day, Griffey was coming off a .277/.372/.496 season with 30hr and 903rbi. His 3rd consecutive year of playing mostly healthy and of putting up avg to above avg numbers. Obv in 2009 I’d rather have Bruce than the 39-yr-old Griffey, but based on opening day outlooks at this position, I think most folk would be happy in 2009 if Bruce matched Griffey 2007 production.
Owings vs. Fogg (EVEN at best)
Fogg had been a consistent 5.00 ERA pitcher for 3 consecutive years until coming to Cincinnati. Who knows whether Owings is healthy, can stay healthy, and can pitch successfully in the bigs.
Bullpen (ADV 2008 bullpen)
I see no improvements. In fact the loss of Affeldt (for who?) leaves the bullpen weaker.
Greg..I agree with your analysis…I would add that I don’t think there’s anyway that Hairston will repeat last year (I hope I’m wrong…we need it…he’s essentially the new Ryan Freel to Reds fans); I think Hernandez will hit more homers than he did in Baltimore…but, I think it will be a home park effect, and his overall performance will decline.
As for LF…I mean, it’s an embarrassing comparison. Oddly…and I truly mean oddly…I saw one defensive metric where Dunn actually had a plus season in LF last season…now, I’m not saying I believe it, and I don’t have the source handy, but I DID read that…
I do think defensive analysis has improved, but the defensive numbers are still questionable…
As for someone else’s comment about the offense being all right…I think we’ll have one of the worst offenses in baseball in a park that fans think is offensive friendly…
I’m not sure another club could have gotten Pat Burrell for that money. I don’t think he would have gone to Cincy or KC for that kind of money. I think the fact that Tampa looks pretty loaded to be a contender probably takes some of the sting out of not getting quite as big paycheck.
I’d think just the same Bobby Abreu would take less to play for the Anaheim Angels or say the Dodgers, more of a marquee club with a solid chance at the post season instead of coming to Cincy.
I also don’t get the Cubs signing Milton Bradley at all. The guy can hit, but he cannot stay healthy and the guy had some odd stuff happen around him. Considering how the clubhouse in Chicago turned upon itself under Dusty down the stretch a few years ago and pretty much poisoned the club, I could see this backfiring. Maybe Bradley is an OK guy and just a bit misunderstood from a few things that have happened on the diamond, I don’t know.
The Reds look shy in the outfield, but I think they should have more options to make deal in May or June than right now. There is just not that many players that seem available that really fit what we need at a price we can pay.