Loading ...I meant to ask over the weekend if anyone had been watching the new MLB Network. I’ve checked it out at various times, and I think there is a lot of potential there. It’s now my default channel for background noise when I’m doing other things. That’s saying something.
Anyway, Dunn and Dunner is reporting that the MLB Network mentioned the Reds as one of the teams who may be interested in lefty Oliver “I’m represented by Scott Boras” Perez.
If Perez pitched for the Reds like he always seemed to pitch against the Reds, sign him up. This guy always seems to throw a gem against Cincinnati.
Thoughts?
No way we’ll be able to afford him. He’s going to get $6-10 mil a year from someone, and I don’t see that being worth it for him. Spend that money on a LF.
Jon Garland is a better option for that kind of cheddar…
I am watching MLB network right now..
they’re showing highlights of the 91 WS game 7..
John Smoltz v. Jack Morris…
unlike ESPN this channel shows teams other than the Yankees and Red Sox… they have been showing these ‘inside the moments’ show all morning… Pete Rose.. 4192… Nolan Ryan 7 no-no’s..
If we get him, you can put our rotation right there with the Cubs.
I think the price will be much too high.
As for the network, what a bore. Don Larsen’s perfect game is your opening salvo?? C’mon. Let’s get deep, real deep, into each team—talking to farm directors, GM’s, scouts, etc. during the offseason when your casual fan isn’t tuning in. There’s nothing that currently appeals to the serious minded baseball fan.
John Garland is terrible.
for the money he’s better than Oliver Perez..
Not sold on Perez, the Reds offense needs more help than their pitching right now… This team looks like it will be lucky to average 2 runs a game (unless of course Votto and Bruce become monster power hitters).
MLB Network is unfortunately not on DISH network.
Any other website have a pitcher’s GB/FB ratio? ESPN’s site has zeros for Perez prior to 2008, which makes me question their 2008 numbers for him.
On the surface, he looks like a left-handed Edison Volquez.
Except that Oliver Perez is a much better pitcher than Jon Garland…
I don’t think I want Perez though. While it would be nice to have a lefty in the rotation I don’t know if it’d be worth the money. He’s going to be calling for a good chunk of change. Left-handed strikeout pitchers under 30 aren’t going to sign for cheap or for only a year or two.
I know that adding a lefty to the rotation would not be a bad thing but with the amount of quality pitching and young guys waiting in the wings the only way signing someone like Perez makes sense is if the Reds then in turn move Arroyo or someone else for a quality LF.
The $ quoted above seems a little high to me and I only see him getting that if the Mets do end up making an offer. Obviously Boras will try to get him that amount and it helps he is left handed but I really don’t see him getting that kind of contract this year.
If the Reds end up spending that money it’ll end up being a Eric Milton signing in my opinion but if they can get him for a decent price then i’m all for it. But don’t forget just 3 or 4 years ago this guy was the opening day starter for the pirates and then was sent down to AAA later that year.
“the only way signing someone like Perez makes sense is if the Reds then in turn move Arroyo or someone else for a quality LF.”
That was my first thought. It could be Arroyo or Bailey. We may still be looking at Dye. If we could swap one of those guys for Dye and add a Perez to the rotation and make sure we have our shortstop situation resolved (is Gonzo healthy or not??)we might actually make some noise in the division this year.
Greg – http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1514&position=P has his GB/FB ratios and actual numbers as well. Career its 893 GB to 1277 FB. That’s not good for GABP.
As for the signing, Bill James projects 11 Wins, 4.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, with a 9.04 K/9. The staggering projection … 31 HRs allowed, which would have tied him with 4th worst in the majors. Considering Harang, Arroyo and Cueto were all in the top 10 in that category and have GB:FB similar to Perez’s career numbers, you’d expect that to be about right for GABP.
At best I think Perez is a LH Bronson Arroyo. So, yeah a $6-10 million contract seems about right. But, I agree that this team doesn’t NEED a LH starter for that kind of money.
I would avoid him at all costs
For the likely money, and considering Boras and that he is supposed to be one of the Mets fallbacks if Lowe does not sign I think it is going to be close to/ over the 10 million number, I would much rather let the Owings/Thompson/ other young guys show what they can do.
As for signing Perez and then trading Arroyo for a leftfielder, at that point aren’t we moving somewhat in circles? Are we really going to get that much better a LF by trading Arroyo than we would be using the money spent on signing to sign a LF (or a couple cheaper free agents to platoon)?
As a follow up, I was looking at the Fangraph link above and it referenced an article on the Mets pitching staff. This was one author’s take on their adding Perez:
Essentially, if Niese can manage 140 innings with a 4.55 FIP, his value will be incredibly similar to that of Oliver Perez. Of course, nobody knows if Niese can produce these numbers, but adding Lowe while keeping him in the mix produces +14.5 wins; spending plenty of money on Perez, while signing Lowe, adds a mere +0.3 wins. Given that Perez will likely command a salary upwards of 20 times that of Niese, it makes more sense to give the kid a shot.
I think the same analysis would apply with respect to our younger pitchers.
I actually flipped MLB Network on earlier and it was the hot stove report with Jon Heyman and I heard them talk about Perez. Basically it sounded like he was just speculating teams that could be interested in him not actually reported interest from teams or Boras.
I still don’t think Perez would come here anyway. He’s young, inconsistant(Lohse-ish) and will draw a lot of money. He’d probably cost even more in order to get him to come to Cincinnati and pitch in this ballpark.
OT, but Pat Burrell just signed for 2 years/16 million with the Rays. I’m pretty sure the Reds could have gotten him for that, or maybe a few million more.
No on Perez.
We can duplicate 90% of his production at pennies of what he’ll cost.
That means the Rays should have a glut of good young outfielders. Someone should be available.
I posted awhile back that if we could get Burrell for 2/22 I would take that in a heartbeat.
At 2/16, I cannot believe we were not in on the deal. If it was because of the money we gave Taveras, I will probably damage my keyboard typing profanities.
Matt B., the question is did he sign for that cheap with the Rays because he felt they were the best team interested in him? I mean if he could make a few million more to play for the Reds who possibly in a long stretch could maybe be a contending team or play a few million less and join the team his old one beat in the world series the year before what do you think he’d take?
preach, I don’t think Burrel is in the plans for outfield duty with the Rays. He’ll probably be mainly a DH.
good point Phill. my bad. Could be another reason he signed with them for a little less.
Phill, hoping you are right and that he went to Florida for the chance to win a ring, play DH etc. as opposed to our front office preferring to spend the money on Taveras.
I think this is a great deal for TB. Upgrades their DH spot from last year, and he can play some OF in a pinch if they need him to without a real long term commitment.
GRF – You should be cautious when suggesting that the Reds didn’t sign so-and-so for X amount of dollars. It might not have been the same price for the Reds to acquire his services.
Back to Perez. The problem is that the Reds don’t have a young lefty. Sure they would have if they would have drafted Lincecum instead of Stubbs, but hey I’ve heard that Lincecum kid is too short to pitch in the majors. OOPS.
I wonder if the Reds would be able to move a RHP prospect for a LHP prospect of equal value. Most likely not because LHP are at a premium. But, what if the Reds could trade a Bailey for a Sanchez? That’s an interesting idea, no?
John Fay speculated about a month ago that the Reds would have $10 million to $16 million to spend this offseason, and since that time they’ve added $8.25 million in Hernandez and Taveras.
(You can debate the wisdom of acquiring those particular players, but the team had to have players at each of those particular positions. The team simply couldn’t count on Hanigan or Dickerson being able to provide league-average production over an entire season, and even so, the Reds at least needed backups there.)
If Fay’s numbers are correct, that leaves the Reds with around $2 million to $8 million to spend. I’m not sure it would have been wise to lavish the rest of that on Pat Burrell.
Here’s a clever way (in my opinion) to get an Oliver Perez-like talent at a fraction of the cost:
–Trade Edwin to SF for Jonathan Sanchez
–Offer Morgan Ensberg a minor-league deal w/ incentives. (He was terrible last year, but I like his career numbers a lot and he’s “only” 33 — not necessarily washed up.)
Any thoughts on this? I actually think I’d do it if both pieces were possible.
Travis, they’ve also traded away Ryan Freel ($4 million), so by my count in these 2 deals they’ve taken on a net of $4.25 million in 2009.
As it was said earlier, I’d only be happy with signing Perez if there was already a plan in place to move Arroyo and his contract someplace else for a major league LF. Honestly, I can’t see the Reds taking on Perez unless there’s some sort of deal like this already in the works.
As for MLB Network, I watched on the First for about 6 hours, but haven’t had much time to watch since then. As for showing the Larsen Perfect Game, I thought it was a great way to start off the network — go on and hate me, since I also am a Yankee fan. (Blame it on them beating the Dodgers in the Series in ‘77 and ‘78 — I despised the Dodgers for being there instead of the Reds)
If they do some original programming for the hardcore fan — minors reports, weekly shows that go in depth with a particular team or a specific division, in-depth interviews — and keep plenty of classic games and “greatest moments” shows flowing in the meantime, I think it’ll be a favorite of mine for the forseeable future.
I like the idea of Edwin for Sanchez but then you would not only need to acquire a LF but also a 3B. Plus the rumors around Sanchez are that SF may only be willing to trade him pending the health of Lowry’s elbow. If this really is the case a deal for Sanchez probably isn’t realistic until Spring Training or after.
I understand the arguement that by signing Perez and trading either a pitching prospect or Arroyo for a LF is going in circles but I guess I am just not convinced that the FA market for a LF offers many high quality options, you either have bad defensive options or people like Ryan Freel who are better off as utility players and not starting options. I think there are more options out there on the trade front that would be better options and are higher quality players (even if older).
True enough, Dan. That’s actually a bargain, in today’s market, for potentially league-average starters at those two positions, and all we gave up was Freel’s gimpy legs.
I’d rather move Edwin in a deal for Beltre, who would be worth spending the rest of the Reds’ cash, but Sanchez would be a better option than dealing with Boras for Perez. In that case, though, I’d rather spend more money for Wiggington to replace EdE.
Also, I wish Insight had the MLB Network. A lot.
Trade Market is the better route to go for sure now for a LF now that Bradley signed with the Cubs and Burrell with the Rays. I just don’t want Hairston as our Opening Day LF at this point which I unfortunately can see happening.
Does the Burrell signing reset the market? At 8 mil a year, does the market look better for the Reds to be able to sign someone like Abreu or *gulp* Dunn?
They can still be outspent, but I think 8 million a year drops that level for a few guys. Think the Phillies would have rather spent that on Burrell than 30 over 3 for Ibanez. I think I’d be pissed if I were a Phillies fan. They didn’t even get a draft pick…
Or did they get a draft pick? Sorry, I can’t recall so I may be incorrect above.
No draft pick; the Phils didn’t offer arb to Burrell.
I don’t think there’s any way Dunn will come back, but Abreu would be a great fit in LF if he’d sign a deal similar to what Burrell got.
Perez to the Yanks. Burrell to the Rays. The Reds’ options are becoming fewer and fewer.
Agree David and didn’t mean to suggest that money was the reason, only that it would be frustrating if it were.
Travis G, agree we needed additional depth both in the outfield (where we still do) and catcher. It is the particular players (and corresponding contracts) that concern me. Hope I am wrong.
As for the FA market for left fielders, I agree it is pretty thin right now. I was hoping we would swoop in for Burrell, but now that he is off the table, as much as I dislike the idea, I wonder if we have to stand pat. I hate to sacrifice signed pitching or a prospect for an older player when I am very skeptical this team can contend next year even with the addition.
I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Ensberg. I think he will bounce back nicely. Would it be possible to acquire him and send E5 to LF?
I still say to make the Bailey for Dye move. I think Micah Owings will be the pleasant suprise for the Reds in 2009. Heck, can he play outfield?
That Perez to the Yanks deal is not deal yet, BTW…
Two questions,
Do you think we get more moving a pitcher now, or during the season?
Wigginton supposedly wants 3 years 17.5 million according to MLB Traderumors. I wouldn’t give him that, but would you do 2/12?
If you can get Ensberg for nothing, no harm in taking a look.
File this under ‘Crazy move reaking of desperation’, but at this point, whatever: Arizona had considered starting Owings at first base to get his bat into the lineup. How about doing that once or twice a week while putting Votto in LF on those days? Just thinking out loud.
At this point, I’m fully in favor of signing both Ensberg (potentially for 3B if he pans out) and Jonny Gomes (for 200-400 AB’s in LF).
Both could be had cheaply, I think (both were so bad last year that we could perhaps get them w/ minor league deals w/ incentives?), and both have some serious upside for OBP and slugging.
And by the way, Gomes is only 28. He does strike out way too much, sure, but I love his potential.
And heck, if Gomes could really pan out in LF, maybe we could shift Dickerson to CF and steal some of slick Willy’s AB’s…
Hey Perez and bad
and would be a good backup option
idk if i would throw him in the mix right now
unless we can trade Arroyo for some offense
please lord..
let them trade Arroyo and Bailey together for a decent outfielder
Burrell 2/16 is a shock. I thought he’d get 2/25 or 3/30 or something. It’s a shame the Reds couldn’t have outbid that.
I’ve always like the Wiggington idea. I’d do 2/12 on him. Hate to say it, but if Burrell takes 2/16, Dunn should be available for 2/20, which I think the Reds would be able to do. Now, I know Dunn is a devisive character, but I think we can all agree he’s worth mid-range OF money.
Since we’re lobbying for our pet causes, I’d still like to see the Reds build a Gabe Kapler (.828 career OPS vs. LH)/Eric Hinske (.805 career OPS vs. RH) platoon for LF. Both guys made less than $1 million last season and can capably play other positions, and both guys played roles on young playoff contenders last season.
Kapler/Votto/Dickerson left field, Votto/Keppinger/Owings first base. You only take on one additional payroll that way. Or just pull names out of a hat.
The only problem with taking a bunch of flyers is that if they don’t pan out you are screwed. The Reds already took a flyer on Nix which could be a nice addition (I think he is still only 27 and was a top prospect with the Rangers) and I agree that Ensberg would help bolster the bench even if EE is not moved so that would be a nice cheap pickup.
However, why does everyone want to move Votto he improved all year at Firstbase and in my opinion should not be moved. He is someone I would keep at first for the long haul or until Yonder was brought up and forced a position switch for Votto.
Also, Owings had a good first half pitching before getting hurt leave him as a SP and Pinch-Hit with him when you need him but I don’t see why everyone wants him at 1B or the OF leave him and Votto alone. PLEASE…. Plus I think Owings is the best option as the #5 SP unless Bailey finally shows up.
Brian – I believe Nix was signed to a minor league deal without an invite to spring training. To me that suggests that the Reds want to add depth to their minor league OF and nothing more.
The reason the Owings idea keeps getting floated is because his bat may be more valuable to the Reds at this point than his arm considering how many young pitching prospects the Reds have. I agree, leave him as a starting pitcher, but I’m trying to explain why it keeps getting floated.
As for Wigginton, personally, with E5 arbitration eligible, I say we move E5 and take on Wigginton to a two year deal. According to Fangrahs Wigginton was good for 2.9 value wins while E5 was good for 2.2. It’s a pretty lateral move offensively but an upgrade defensively. It gives the Reds the flexibility to package Edwin and Bailey, which should net a darn good return.
Oliver Perez has good stuff and he can be really filthy on right handed hitters, but I’d hate to be a club giving him a big chunk of change as the guy is not very consistent.
Perez went from one season in Pittsburgh looking like one of the best starters in the NL to two years later barely being in the bigs and being shipped out for a box of donuts. Because of injuries he ends up being a playoff starter for the Mets and has success, then seemingly has a couple of decent seasons, but still with some inconsistent pitching.
The thing I look at is that Perez doesn’t rack up the innings for the amount of starts he gets and while he strikes out a lot of batters, the guy will give up the walks and dingers. I think a guy like this could be a 7.00 ERA in Great American if things don’t shake out right.
Let the Yankees sign him and he will flame out and you can probably get him for a AA pinch hitter and a maple bat rack in about 18 months.
I would much prefer signing some combination of Kapler/Hinske/Gomes at this point then trading for a one year Dye rental.
Kapler/Hinske/Gomes/Taveras/Nix/Hairston/Wiggington/Ensberg/Jones/Stiff/Stiffer/Stiffest
Why are we only considering signing chumps, castoffs, and reclamation projects? Why bother? Is this team any more likely to improve with the addition of one, or all of these clowns?
Chris, that to me is the multi-million dollar question. Is there any one guy we can reasonably get now that makes us a bona fide contender next season? If there isn’t, why mortgage anything now as opposed to adding some marginal improvements where we can, hope for the best this year, and aim for following season?
By the way according to this link, we are still in on Baldelli and Hairston. W did not want to get into the contract Burrell signed.
http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/01/jocketty_on_burrell_baldelli.html
I hope somebody gives Hairston a lot of money to start for them so the Reds don’t sign him for too much. I have a bad feeling if we sign him, his contract will end up making Freel’s contract look real good.
Chris,
Chris,
Hi…it’s me again..sorry..
I feel our fans have gotten used to complacency. We have become perpetually rebuilding….frankly, that’s just a losing attitude.
I feel like we’re becoming what the Tampa Rays were when they were the Devil Rays.
Yes, we have some young talent…but, until ownership decides they want to play with the big boys and buy some star talent that will anchor our team until Votto, Bruce, Volquez (I’m not ready to add Cueto yet) take over and be the vets, we’re depending on a dream.
And…our dream is based on pitching arms….which is much, much less reliable than a dream built on positional players; that is, unless we have a plethora of young arms following and that’s questionable…
Former Columbus sportscaster Jimmy Crum had died. Jimmy was the voice of the Bengals for several year.
Sometimes the best “buy-low” acquisitions look like chumps when the trade is made.
For example, the White Sox traded one guy — a minor league first baseman — for Carlos Quentin last year. At the time of the trade, he was coming off an injury-plagued .214/.298/.349 season w/ Arizona.
Then he got healthy, and got a full-time job, and he hit .288/.394/.571 for the White Sox this year.
I’m not saying that any of the chumps in Chris’s list have Quentin kind of potential, but I am saying that most of them have more OBP/power potential that slick Willy does.
It’s ironic (to me at least) that the best outfielder left on the market is Dunn – the one outfielder we basically let go and said “no thanks” to.
The Reds should consider adding a clown like Gabe Kapler because they need another OF on the 25-man roster, and I believe he’d offer more value than a lot of the other available options. I think Wiggy would be a fine addition, but he’s still looking for his last shot at a big payday.
I wouldn’t go signing Kapler/Hinske/Gomes right now, though, because there are still more slugging COF available than there are teams willing to pay them. According to Yahoo!’s Tim Brown, Abreu is still asking $48 million over three years. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that he won’t get that. But as his options dry up, he might be willing to take a reasonable one- or two-year deal. Burrell seems to have recognized that and chose the best opportunity before it closed up.
David,
Nix was signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training along with incentives hoping he would be healthy and capatilize on his talent.
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081215&content_id=3717518&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin
“The Reds should consider adding a clown like Gabe Kapler because they need another OF on the 25-man roster, and I believe he’d offer more value than a lot of the other available options”
Bingo. I’ve been hearing how we don’t want to spend much on 2009 because 2010 and beyond will be our years (still a dubious claim to me re: decade of the 90’s after the 90 sweep)so some have been suggesting some stop gaps until then. Kapler, Ensberg, et al are that. Stopgaps. But perhaps stopgaps with some potential to be at least impact bench players in 2010 and provide us with something other than embarassment in ‘09. Now, if you want to spend the money, Let’s talk about Abreu. Let’s talk about Manny. There are a couple of outfielders to acquire if you don’t want the ’stiffs’ mentioned earlier.
I agree that Owings is our best shot for #5. I also believe that he has an outstanding bat which I don’t want to see completely wasted while we try to cobble together 2 or 3 runs every night. I was trying to offer a couple of suggestions on ways to increase the “O” without adding payroll. I was also talking a little tongue-in-cheek regarding my massive platoon rotation to drive home the point I’m not pleased currently.
So, should we spend to win in ‘09 or wait until ‘10? If you don’t want to spend, we will be left with ’stiffs’ who can fill in while we see what the youngsters can do and hopefully E5 and Dickerson will blossom; if that’s the case then I would love to have Kapler and Ensberg on the bench next year. If you want to win now, deal for Beltre and Dye/Abreu/Manny.
Face it, Adam Dunn is gone and will not be returning. So how should we fix our outfield situation: on the cheap or with a splash?
With a good deal of the starting pitching being righthanded your starter is Chris Dickerson, so 65% of the time there is no left field problem. He has earned the spot through work and his season ending performance. Everyone counts Cueto as a given but I think Dickerson earned as much recognition.
I would think Baldelli would be the perfect fit. He starts versus all lefties and when Taveras needs a day off Dickerson can slide to center.
Predicated on the health of Gonzo:
I would also sign Hairston in a utility role to be a back-up at second and the ooutfield, Keppinger backs up the other spots, including 1B.
If Gonzo is still iffy I might look at David Ekstein.
I would have liked a Dickerson/Baldelli platoon in CF. Obviously signing Burrell in that scenario would give the offense a huge boost this season.
People keep bringing up the Votto to LF idea because they think it is inevitable that Alonso will succeed and that Votto will move to LF when Alonso comes up…and they also think that winning in 2009 is a pipe dream…so why not get him playing time in LF in a pipe dream year so that he has a year under his belt when he is needed to be the permament LFer.
If you want cheap, outside-the-box platoon options, then move Votto to LF, and platoon Dan Johnson and Ryan Shealy at 1B.
…or Sean Casey.
Not sure what moving Votto to left does to the defense. My thought on making the loss of the Dunn power offense easier to compensate for is improving the speed and defense. I am not sure moving Votto at this point and hurting the defense is a great idea.
Plus there is no reason to move him now with Taveras and Dickerson on the roster.
CeeKer – Until I hear from both sides what complicated negotiations between the two sides, I don’t want to hear any more the Reds “basically let go and said ‘no thanks’.” Isn’t it possible it was Dunn who said no thanks, or is that concept to novel because the fans don’t want to think that their favorite player didn’t return the love?
GregD – Totally agree Jocketty made a mistake demaning a RH because conventional wisdom says to split Votto and Bruce with a RH. I also totally agree that Jocketty made a mistake by limiting his search to LF when expanding the search to 3B or 1B and moving Votto or E5 now.
Although the complication I think is not with Alonso, but with Frazier. I think both Frazier and Alonso will be up in 2010. Most of what I’ve read projects Frazier at either 2B or LF. 2B is set for awhile, so if Alonso is up too then where does Votto play? This leads me to believe the Reds don’t want to move Votto to LF, because the position switch will be to 3B.
Sorry Frazier projects at 3B not 2B.
Dan Johnson’s done been sold to a Japanese team.
What are your impressions about the team making a play for Xavier Nady. He seems like the perfect fit. He’s a natural RH corner OF who is pretty weak defensively in RF but may get a boost in LF. He’s projected on a .284/.337/.473 line and absolutely mashes at GABP.
The Yankees are looking to move one of Nady, Matsui, Cabrera. With Nady being arb eligible his salary would be a lot lower than his value and it would probably require less in the deal than the Yankees gave up (Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Dan McCutchen) – Keep in mind that Marte was also in the deal.
Thoughts?
I guess we need a bigger box!
We’ll see what happens with Phillips over the next couple of years, but I’m not sure that he’s going to be here for a while. If you’ve got guys coming up in his position that can play, perhaps he is one of the guys you don’t re-sign and spend that money on another area of need.
While I don’t think we need a SP, I would love to have OP. Either him or Randy Wolf would be the only starting pitchers I would consider.
Perez has spent his entire career pitching in moderate to extreme pitcher’s parks (Petco, PNC, Shea). His career WHIP is 1.39 at home and 1.49 on the road. But more troubling are his career HR splits. He’s allowed 1.17 per nine at home and 1.49 on the road.
Those numbers don’t translate well to GABP. If he came cheap, sure, why not? But he won’t come cheap.