Loading ...Okay, time for the Nation to discuss the next name in the “How Valuable Is” series.
Today, sick of all the negativity caused by this organization, I thought we should start the new year by discussing Jay Bruce. Lots to be excited about when you talk about Bruce.
I want to see your projections on two different items. First, what kind of numbers do you expect Bruce to compile in 2009? Then, what do you expect out of Bruce’s career?
Finally, is Bruce overrated, underrated, or just rated? Let’s hear your thoughts….
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Previously: Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips.
For Bruce in 2009 I expect something along the lines of .280/.335/.500 with 30 doubles, 30 HR, 3 triples, 45 walks and 135 strikeouts.
Thats pretty darn valuable given its going to cost the Reds something around $400,000.
As for his career, I see him being a perennial 30+ HR guy, hitting for a .290-.300 Average for his peak with his walks going up a little bit each year for a while, probably topping out around 75.
The current expectations for Bruce are pretty accurate. There will still be some speed bumps for Jay, but he’ll continue to progress each year going forward. 2009 should reap .275/30 HR’s/88 RBI.
Jay’s upside is as an XBH machine…which he will gradually become as he gains experience and starts closing that hole in his swing down-and-in.
In 2009 I think he’ll be a little better than what Doug projects. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the .340-.350 range for OBP with maybe 35 home runs.
I think after last year’s good-but-not-great performance he might be little underrated right now.
I think Doug is pretty spot on for his career path, though that’s obviously hard to project right now.
I’m not good at predictions but I can see Bruce hitting around .275 with a .330 OBP. I imagine anywhere from 25-30 homers, 25-30 doubles, maybe 50 walks, 130-140 strikeouts.
I got no science to my stuff but whatever. I don’t know if he will but hopefully his defense will get better and he’ll continue to grow. I don’t know if he’s overrated or underrated. I’d say he’s just rated because at this point in his extremely short career it’s hard to judge that.
Given what else the Reds have, I’d say he’s extremely valuable, as he is a pivotal part of a weak offense. I think the season rides on his productivity – I don’t think a season like last is good enough but Doug’s numbers might be. Then there are the intangibles – he is going to be forced to be a leader on the team even at his age, a task I think he can handle.
I don’t know how well Jay wil do next year, but I do believe that he’s going to need to be a star over the course of the next few years if the Reds are going to win.
i don’t know if bruce will hit .280 next year unless he learns to be a bit more patient and covers up the couple of holes in his strike zone coverage. i would peg my unscientific guess at:
.265/.325/.475 and about 30 hr. maybe about 50 walks and 150 strikeouts.
the thing is, i’m basing that on having watched him last year but only having seen him at the major league level where, as a 21 year old with a total of about 120 games above single-a ball, he was a bit overmatched at times and really struggled with lefties. (i just had to look it up – 46k in 152 pa against lhp last year and a lovely .190/.263/.299 line). and i think he got tired toward the end of the season, which may not be as much of an issue this year.
i’m also guessing that at some point, a lot of things are going to click for him all at once and he’s going to wind up being a perennial .290/.350/.500 guy who can hit 40 hr. he’s really only had 200 games above single-a ball so far.
the key for him this year is going to be patience… especially if he winds up hitting 5th with the likes of encarnacion, gonzalez & hernandez behind him. i think he’s going to get pitched around a lot by right handed pitchers if he hits in front of e5e5 all year. if he uses that as an opportunity to draw some walks without getting too frustrated by it, he might turn out to have a better obp than expected.
as far as his value goes, well, he’s 22 this season, will cost about $400k as has already been pointed out, plays a solid (to maybe above average with more work) right field, has a nice arm and probably has the most power upside of anybody on the team. i’d say that his position as the most valuable piece on the team long term (even if votto might be more valuable in 2009) is pretty secure right now. wouldn’t trade him unless i was getting the moon and the stars in return.
RPA, I think those commetns are right on. I will guess .265/.320/.470 with 25 hrs and about 130k. I really like him, but his struggles with lefties, age and lack of protection in the lineup will hurt him this year. I think he breaks out the following year and I think he is the most valuable position player on the team.
So much is going to be if the table is consistently set in front of him. I assume he is going to hit in the three spot so who is batting one and two is key. If he can come up often with runners on in front of him, it should help his patience and confidence.
knowing dusty, we can only assume that tavares and phillips (or gonzalez if healthy, he is the shortstop after all) will be hitting 2nd. which means that something like 60% of the time nobody will be on base.
actually, though, i kind of see votto hitting 3rd and bruce hitting 5th. dusty didn’t hit him 3rd much last year after he cooled off.
I think he’ll be right about where Doug said except I expect his RBI’s to be closer to 100…but I guess that depends on who Dumpy bats in front of him.
I wonder when people will start bitching about his RBI totals.
Jay Bruce has Larry Walker-like career upside.
As far as next season, .295/.345/.550. Serious power out of the kid.
Wow, if Bruce gets near what Doug predicted above, I will be ecstatic. I think it’s overly optimistic, but I’d take it in a heartbeat. I hope that’s right.
I wonder when people will start bitching about his RBI totals.
It won’t take long. With this team poor ability to get runners on, he’d have to bat .400 in clutch situations to stand a chance of reaching just 100.
In the history of BA’s top 100, here is the list of hitters who have topped the list.
1993 – Chipper Jones
1994 – Cliff Floyd
1995 – A Rod
1996/1997 – Andruw Jones
1998 – Ben Grieve
1999 – JD Drew
2001 – Josh Hamilton
2003 – Mark Teixiera
2004/2005 – Joe Mauer
2008 – Jay Bruce
That’s pretty good company, I think high expectations are justified.
I agree high expectations are justified. I just don’t expect him to be so good as early as next year. I would be very happy with 2009 numbers below what is being predicted here.
I fully expect Bruce to be a stud at some point. The question is…when?
I think he puts up all-star numbers starting in 2010. Maybe along the lines of .295/.350/.525. Reason being that a lot of great players had great numbers in their age 23 season, and many of them didn’t already have almost 2 full years of MLB time under their belts at that point.
I think he’ll really mature this season and start dominating in 2010. As for this year, I’d be ecstatic with Doug’s predictions, but I’m not sure it’ll be quite that high.
That’s kinda how I feel, nycredsfan. 2010 should be a monster, if things go well.
Bruce is very valuable and very important to the Reds success in the next few years. I believe he will be a 30-35 HR hitter this season .285/.335/.550 sounds good, 91 RBI.
I don’t think its too much to ask and I think he will get better defensively. Watch for him to get close to 40 HR 120 RBI in a few years, as the SO numbers drop some.
I think he will be in the .270 with 30-35 HRs and 80-90 RBI’s. He is very vaulable and if he exceeds those types of numbers the Reds need to think about getting him an extension like Longoria signed last year to keep in place and not get overpriced.
As for the RBI totals, people have to be on base to knock them in. This has been the problem for people like Dunn in the past.
2010 or 2011 will be his All-Star year.
Chad,
I did the math over 600 PA.
If Jay strikes out 1.3% less than he did last season, walks 0.7% more, has 3 sac flies, 1 sac hit and is hit by 6 pitches that would leave him with 542 at bats, 48 walks and 138 strikeouts. If he homered every 18 at bats (19.6 last year) he would have 30 HR. If his BABIP were .320 (given his high line drive rate its reasonable to expect something like that) he would hit for a .277 AVG and post a .340 OBP. If his doubles rate stayed similar (say from one every 24 AB’s to every 20 AB’s) he would hit 27 doubles and lets just call for 2 or 3 triples. That combined with his HR would lead to him slugging either .500 or .504.
So really, just every so slight improvements by Jay can lead to big time production improvement. Given that he will be 22 all of next year, has insane talent and will likely improve against lefties next year (career in the minors he hit .289/.349/.526 against them… I just can’t see him having another .568 OPS against lefties next year, especially considering his BABIP against them was .258 last season) I don’t think we shouldn’t expect some real strong improvements from Jay.
Oh and just to tie Jim before I wake back up in about 5-6 hours…. is it bad that I went back and redid all of that math at 4am just to make sure all of my previous math added up?
I don’t know, I think it is to early to tell on Bruce. You are basing it all off on 3/4’s a year which is tough because normally by that time the pitchers have begun making changes to how they approach him and he is just starting to adjust to what they are doing to him. So in my opinion it is to early to tell.
And all the math using minor league numbers I don’t really trust it because look at how much Homer Bailey struggled when he came up after dominating the minors prior to his first call up.
To early to tell but great potential that isn’t exagerated. Just hope he reaches the potential.
Alright, Doug, you’ve convinced me.
Of course, if I tried to do that much math at 4am, my numbers would say anything. The fact that you could actually do those calculations at that time increases my respect for you, and burnishes your stat-geek credentials.
I think rpa’s predicitions (.265/.325/.475 ~30 HR, 50 BB and 150 K) are about right, but even that less bullish —— is pretty damn good. He’s about as valuable to the Reds as Longoria is to the Rays or Ramirez is to the Marlins, and those are the only two players I think are more valuable than him, given their age, ability, cost, etc.
I think Bruce will be immune to some of the dumber criticisms (not enough RBsI!!1!) that Dunn got tagged with, simply because he carries himself differently. Bruce seems a little more fiery, which fans think is very important, and he’ll walk less while striking out almost as often. I think a lot of fans got mad at Dunn for taking all those walks because it seemed to fit his lackadaisical demeanor (accurate or not, that’s how he appeared to many people). It was almost like, “I’ll take the walk so I can just trot to first instead of putting the ball into play and running hard.”
Oops. I meant to say, “even that less bullish forecast.” I meant to look up a synonym for prediction so I didn’t use the same word twice in one sentence, but forgot.
Also, it should be pointed out that antipathy toward hitters taking walks is absurd. Walks = not outs.
I am thinking he will hit between 80 and 160 HRs with around 200 RBIs. He will also leap directly into GABP from the plaza outside.
He is just that good.
Well are you asking for projections from a talent standpoint or are you asking for his value on this club?
Offensively, both he and Votto will be asked to provide the bulk of the run production. So, his value to the club this year is through the roof. Whether he delivers is another question.
Defensively, with Taveras flying around – whether he catches the ball or not – Bruce will not have to cover as much field, diminishing his importance as an above-average defender.
I am very interested to see who the better player is over the life of their careers – Travis Snider or Jay Bruce.
The RBI’s would be hard to gauge…is he batting behind Taveras & Phillips (70-90 RBI) or behind Votto & Encarnacion (90-110 RBI)?
I’d love to see Bruce hit 5th, but that is only contingent upon my endorsed signing of Orlando Hudson to play 2nd and move of Phillips to SS.
Taveras (the 2005-2007 version – AVG of .342 OBP)
Hudson (AVG of .366 OBP in NL with Arizona)
Votto (.368 OBP last year)
Edwin (AVG of .352 OBP last 3 years)
Bruce
Phillips
It’s hard to see how that wouldn’t lead to 100+ RBI.
Value? He is the franchise. We just have to be patient as this baseball education continues.
.265- 30 HR – 75 RBI – 125K – 45 BB.
I know the concept is a little old school but lets don’t discount the “sophomore jinx.” Pitchers began to adjust to Bruce in late August. The key to his ‘09 season will be his ability to adjust. Check the stats and even Pete Rose suffered in his second year,losing his 2b job to Bobby Klaus for a short time.
Votto could be in for a little struggle as well.
How much of a struggle depends on the expertise of the team’s hitting instructor.
That’s why surrounding both Bruce and Votto with competent offensive players is essential…both to compensate for any drop-off in their production and to relieve some of the pressure their bound to put on themselves to produce.
With the market/economy the way it is, signing two players such as Hudson and Burrell should not be as improbable as it once seemed.
Throw maybe 2 yrs/$20 mil with option years at each of them and see if it sticks…
Hudson? Where are you going to put another gold glove second baseman?
Move Phillips to SS. And please don’t make the argument about moving a Gold Glove player. What makes the Reds better? Either a Phillips/Keppinger combo or Phillips/Gonzalez combo….or a Phillips/Hudson combo?
Hudson seems a long shot to sign short-term or cheap, due to the number of teams that have been linked to him, but he won’t get the lavish contract his agent envisioned. I doubt that will be the Reds, but it’s not a terrible idea.
It should be interesting to see what the next tier of FA are willing to take. It seems like they’re all sort of waiting for someone to blink, but a couple of guys could overplay their hand an get caught without a job to start February. I’d prefer the Reds sit out until then and scoop up some one-year bargains than to spend much (in cash or prospect) on the available options.
I’m not crazy about the Taveras signing (especially with Dusty Baker filling out the lineup card), but he does provide the Reds with enough warm bodies to stock an outfield.
4192 why not sign Cabrera over Hudson and leave Phillips at second? They are both named Orlando. What’s the difference?
In all seriousness, what’s the difference between moving Hudson to SS rather than Phillips. The argument is the same. Alas, I don’t think the Reds are going to make a move at SS anyways.
But, the good news is, by the Dodgers reworking the Andruw Jones deal Walt Jocketty has his RH OF!
Bruce’s value over the long-term will be tremendous. I fully expect him to be a Larry Walker-style talent who routinely produces .310/30/100 in a few years. I hope he’s doing it for the Reds then, too.
This year, however, I feel he’ll have another year of learning and an increased pressure in being asked to anchor a (so-far) very anemic offense. Like several others have already stated, I think Bruce’s success in 2009 will be closely tied to where he bats in the lineup.
Wouldn’t it have been great if Chris Chambliss was still around to work with the kid? Heck even Jim Lefebvre.
Bruce is deffinatly the most valuable position player on the team
if we lose him we lose any hopes of ever winning
Jay has the most upside, by far, but Joey Votto is the better player currently.
2009: .285, 34 HR, 95 RBI, 12 SB, 174 hits, 100 runs
Career: I’ve long said I think he’ll be the first Red since Pete Rose to approach 3000 hits as a Red. I think he’ll hit 500 home runs and be a Hall of Famer.
David,
Take a long look at who is more suited to man the SS position, and it is obviously Phillips over Hudson.
Um Travis, there’s only been one team linked to him…and that’s been the Nationals.
Toronto has expressed interest in Hudson, as well, and both New York teams are rumored to like him if either of them could shed their current 2B. Maybe he’ll end up overplaying his hand waiting for one of those two deep-pocketed teams to make an offer, but I’d be surprised if he’s not one of the next players to sign.
More important, do we have a nickname for Jay yet?
There has been opportunities enough to move Phillips and it hasn’t happened and it isn’t going to happen.
The only thing we can know now is what he did last year. Even the best players sometimes have sophomore slumps. He’s a great (yes great) player, but don’t get down on him next year if he has an off year.
Just with Jay’s numbers last year, if he was on the open market, even in this market, he’d probably be a Yankee (may it never be) with a mega year, mega million dollar contract.
Tom,
Baseball America started calling Jay ‘The Boss’ back when he was in Dayton. I like it.
“The Boss” is probably the most sticking name especially with the fans yelling “Bruuuuce” like at a Springsteen concert.
WTF, you sparked my curiosity. Is there evidence to validate that such a thing as a “sophomore jinx” exists or is it just a MLB urban legend?
Boss is a great nickname.
As for Hudson, I understand the Indians looked at him and his salary demands were too high for them (leading to the DeRosa trade and I believe his salary is like 5.5). I doubt we could afford Hudson and even if we could at that type of price I would rather spend the money on Burell or a Beltre trade (if they are still trying to shop him, which may no longer be the case).
Doug agree Votto is the better player now, but given position and future projection, if you told me I could only keep one it would be Bruce in a heartbeat.
Me too GRF, but I think next year, Votto is likely to be the more valuable of the two. Starting in 2010 though I think that Bruce takes that one by the horns and doesn’t give it back.
Bruce has 2 nicknames.
“The Boss” and “The Deal”
“There has been opportunities enough to move Phillips and it hasn’t happened and it isn’t going to happen.”
Unfortunately, this is true. If the organization gave a significant # of starts at SS last year to 2-3 guys who didn’t even play the position in the minors, then Phillips isn’t moving over anywhere.