Loading ...I’m going on the record:
Chris Dickerson will be a better player — offensively and defensively — than Willy Taveras in 2009. And Dickerson will be cheaper too.
Based on career stats, Norris Hopper might have been a better option for CF than Taveras, too.
Of course, as it stands now, Taveras is our starting CF and Dickerson is the starting LF, so let’s hope both of them are good in 2009. If that’s 2/3 of our starting outfield, however, there’s no way to argue that the Reds are a better team than they were last year.
I’m sick to my stomach, and tired of the losing. This team remains dysfunctional.
I think you it the nail on the head with the Dickerson and Hopper comparisons. It is not that Taveras absolutely disgusts me as a player himself, I think you could get by with him as a #7 or 8 hitter on a good team. What is scaring me is the opportunity cost of acquiring him when we had roughly equivalent in house options available at a lower cost (and the fact I haven’t seen contract numbers is really starting to scare me, if he got a raise over his Rockies salary I will be ill) and the sense that there is no overall plan for building the team. We seem to be just muddling through picking up so/so veterans that might get us to 80 wins if everything breaks right, but have absolutely no shot of getting us anywhere better. I hate to ask this again, but aren’t we following the model of the Pirates of the last ten years?
I am waiting to see what effect, if any, prospects Drew Stubbs and Yonder Alonso have on the outfield situation this coming spring. Alonso could potentially push Votto into LF, and the Reds are supposedly going to fast track his elite bat. Stubbs could also work himself into the mix before Spring is over, or by the end of the year if not.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Tavares’ service time of 4 years mean that the Reds didn’t have to offer him two years to control him that long? Wouldn’t one year have made sense and then arbitration? I’m not sure how that system works for certain but I am thinking that fifth year is an important one as far as contracts go.
In house options?
There were 3 outfielders on the roster. One of those is returning from major elbow surgery and another ankle surgery. One is 100%
Even if all were healthy no team can run on three outfielders. You can mention Stubbs but he isn’t ready, Nix has never been ready, etc., etc.
They acquired a guy whose has started in 2 of the last 4 World Series. This is probably only the first outfield acquisition.
As far as replacing the offense. Is the outfield offense going to be the same? No. Is it going to be worse. Probably not just different. Although I in no way want to compare Taveras to Joe Morgan the same cries were heard when Lee May was traded for him. Lets also don’t forget the previous offense didn’t create many wins. It is time to go a new direction.
Bruce should get better.Factored over a whole season he hits 32 HR and drives in 78. So he should come close to replacing his own and some of the Dunn power with better defense and speed.
Griffey with .245 (.249 if you factor in the Sox).
15 HR (18) and 53 RBI (71), )SB 777 OPS. Dickerson would have hit .304, 31 HR, 78 RBI with a 1.021 OPS. Assuming he can’t do that for a whole year he would still mopre than better Griffey with better defense and speed. He also picks up a little of the Dunn power loss.
Taveras adds a new offensive speed component not seen before. His BA should match the Griffey loss and the stolen base component makes up for the loss of power (or the difference the power made in their respective OPS). His glove defense will be a big plus over Bruce in center.
Lets don’t panic, let us let Jocketty put the pieces together. WE don’t need more of the same.
The problem the Reds have is the organizational depth at 3B and 1B. Votto, Frazier and eventually Soto will be forced into the OF to make room for Alonso (2010) and Francsico (2011). That’s likely why the Reds aren’t going after a long term solution. This doesn’t even take into consideration Edwin Encarnacion who also profiles best as a LF.
With Votto, Encarnacion, and Frazier all fighting for the LF job in 2010-2011 is there any wonder why Jocketty doesn’t want a long term solution there?
If I am playing GM, then I do the following:
1) Sign Wigginton to a two year deal to play 3B. Wigginton is an upgrade over EdE both offensively and defensively.
2) With 3B belonging to Wigginton, trade EdE to a team in desperate need of a 3B i.e. Cleveland. The Indians have Garko, Martinez and LaPorta for 2 spots. Given Garko and LaPorta are under team control until at least 2013 and Martinez will be a FA (most likely) in 2011, shopping Martinez doesn’t seem like a bad idea for the tribe depending on the return. Could a package centering around EdE and Bailey get it done?
If so the Reds’ 2009 lineup would be:
CF – Taveras
LF – Votto
1B – Martinez
RF – Bruce
3B – Wigginton
2B – Phillips
C – Hernandez
SS – Gonzalez
Not only does such a lineup provide flexibility given Wigginton’s ability to play LF and 3B, Votto’s ability to play LF and 1B, and Martinez’ ability to play 1B and C, but moving Votto to LF now and having 3B and 1B open in a year or two enables the Reds to more easily transition to a 2011 lineup which would feature Frazier, Francisco, and Alonso.
The only glaring error I think Jocketty has made is limiting his search of a RH bat to OF rather than 1B, 3B and OF.
I don’t give a flying fig if the Reds are 82-80. What’s the big freaking deal if they are?! The idea should be to win a World Series Championship and to do that Jocketty has to have a plan and implement it.
Jocketty is not Jim Bowden and is not Wayne Krivsky. He has been on the job for 250 days and has done a fine job thus far.
Thanks, Mark in CC, for some much-needed perspective. I cringe whenever management makes a move, as I know the blogs are going to go ballistic. Nothing is right except re-signing Dunn, as if, in the past, that even remotely approximated an answer to losing seasons.
I agree that we need to let Jocketty do his job. And I find it hard to believe that 68 stolen bases and the disruption they produce don’t matter.
I agree that Stubbs will not be ready to be on the big league roster come Spring. Heck, I doubt if he’s ready come September. He’s someone who may make an impact in 2010, if at all.
I don’t mind the Taveras signing if the following two conditions are applied:
1. We are not done signing outfielders.
2. He does not consistently bat leadoff. His OBP just isn’t good enough. He would be better suited in the two hole except I would be afraid that a lead runner would be toast too often because Willy rarely hits a ball out of the infield. Dropping him to eighth would increase his walks and allow him to utilize his speed and hopefully our pitcher would be sacrificing to get him to third instead of second where he could score easier. But I know the plan is to put him at the top of the order. That’s a mistake.
“WE don’t need more of the same.”
Right, those 9-6 losses are now 4-2 losses. lovely.
If liked the Corey Patterson signing, then you’ll love this guy. Patterson hits a few more homers (he hit 8 the year in Baltimore before being acquired by Cincy compared to 7 for Taveras career) but Taveras is supposedly faster.
They acquired a guy whose has started in 2 of the last 4 World Series.
Not to pick on Mark in CC, but this sounds an awful lot like your defense of the Josh Fogg signing last spring:
http://redlegnation.com/2008/02/20/please-no/#comment-814779
Are there any sucky players you won’t defend?
I cringe whenever management makes a move, as I know the blogs are going to go ballistic.
Similarly, I cringe because I know people are going write comments defending an organization that has been a complete disaster for a decade, and urging everyone not to panic.
I like Chris’ response to that: http://redlegnation.com/2008/12/23/panic-button/
I agree with the general consensus that this team has not earned the benefit of the doubt by doing so many stupid things over the years. Why should we trust them now, especially when there is such an obviously ridiculous move like signing Willy Taveras TO LEAD OFF, for Pete’s sake?
The Indians aren’t trading Victor, and if they do, why would we waste him at 1B, where his bat is just “ok.”
Mark,
While I think you’re correct in that Bruce will produce better numbers over a full season with a year of experience under his belt, I think you’re completely off the mark on Dickerson.
Check Dickerson’s minor league stats and you’ll see nothing that would make anyone think he could approach the numbers you’re predicting for him. Dickerson’s last full season in the minors (combined between Louisville and Chattanooga) would likely be a more accurate idea of what he’s going to produce in a full-time Major League role:
.263 BA, 14 HR, 55 RBI, .768 OPS, 30 SB, 162 SO.
With the exception of the SB totals, those numbers are pretty much what Jr. put up last year in a Reds uni. While those numbers would be much more acceptable from someone making Dickerson’s salary rather than Griffey’s, they certainly do not represent a dramatic surge from what Griffey produced. And it certainly would come nowhere near replacing any of the power lost by the trade of Adam Dunn.
As far as speed goes, Dickerson would be an improvement over a 38-year old sore-kneed Junior. But if you check his fielding stats, you’ll see CD has a lower fielding percentage in the minors than Griff did in the majors over the past few years. His range factor is also slightly below Griffey’s, too; but remember, Griffey was patrolling CF in much larger parks than Dickerson was in the minors.
And as for Taveras’s “new offensive speed component”, remember, you can’t steal first base.
1. Minor league FPcts are even more useless than those at the big league level.
2. Where do we get the idea that Dickerson was playing in smaller parks that Jr? Jr was playing in GABP. And RF, at that.
3. I’m no Dickerson booster, but the argument that he’s not far superior defensively to Ken Griffey is a non-starter.
Yes, GABP is a fairly small major league field, but it is comparable in size to Louisville’s AAA field. But are you actually suggesting that places like Coors Field and Petco Park are comparable in size to what Dickerson was playing at in Columbus or Charlotte? That’s absurd.
And I didn’t just look at last season for fielding stats. I looked over the past few seasons — when Jr. was playing CF rather than RF and Dickerson was playing mostly CF in smaller minor league parks — when making my comparison.
Can we obtain a court order preventing Dusty from batting Taveras leadoff? If so, this signing does fill a team need and likely at a discount over what Baldelli will get.
I’m still hoping they plug some more holes with your garden-variety Ty Wiggingtons, Eric Hinskes and Gabe Kaplers. It’s looking more and more as if Wiggy would take a two-year deal with an opportunity to start, which the Reds can offer, and the other two guys would most likely sign one-year deals for less than $1 million.
In the best-case scenario, they thrive in GABP and help the youngsters make a playoff push. More likely, they’ll play competently and cheaply, and net the Reds a few prospects in late July. I’m okay with that.
Travis G, you’ve hit on an important point in all this discussion. Last season, almost all of us who opposed the Corey Patterson signing from the beginning said that we wouldn’t mind having the guy around, if only Dusty wouldn’t lead him off.
Patterson’s abilities (and he did have some positive traits) were negated by the problems he caused the offense as the leadoff hitter. I fear that we’re going to see the same with Taveras.
If Taveras were a fourth outfielder, I wouldn’t have any problem with him being on the roster. Even as a starter, if I were assured that he was going to hit 8th, I would grin and bear it.
With Taveras as a leadoff hitter, I’m afraid.
Chad,
I am willing to entertain an argument that the 2009 Reds with Dickerson and Taveras are better than the 2008 Reds, but it doesn’t have as much to do with Taveras/Dickerson as it does with not having Bako/Patterson and slight upgrades across the board from Votto/Bruce/Cueto/Harang/Catcher/Encarnacion.
Still, I don’t think this team is likely to sniff 85 wins, if even 80.
I can buy that, Doug. But it still doesn’t give me much cause for optimism.
from an article from hardballtimes…I like this summary
——
Taveras’ defense has taken a turn for the worse recently. After posting +7 and +13 UZR ratings in 2005 and 2006, Taveras was worth -10 runs in 2007 and -7 runs last season. His lack of offensive prowess may not have mattered as much while he stole a ton of bases and manned centerfield ably. In 2008, only the baserunning facet of these skills seemed evident.
For the 2009 season, Patterson projects to be at -12 offensive runs and between -2 and +2 runs with the glove. For the sake of this analysis, let’s call him a -12 run hitter and 0 run fielder, deeming him average at the tough position. Playing around 140 games with 540 PA, Patterson would receive an additional +20 runs for value above replacement level as well as adjusting for his position.
—–
how do the Reds go through GM and manager after GM and manager yet they still all do same thing.
and I think the original blog post put it best. Dickerson will produce more and play better defense than Taveras.
I was thinking the Reds could have the worst OF in their history but now I’m sure of it.
The thought of Taveras leading off isn’t overly appealing, but if he doesn’t do it, then who would you stick at the top of the lineup?
Chad – exactly what I was going to say in #16. This guy is identical to Patterson in so many ways.
Taveras profiles as a nice bench guy, pinchrunner, cover all 3 OF positions defensively. As a leadoff hitter, he lacks the on-base skills and as an everyday player, he lacks the power. With all his speed, he doesn’t even hit doubles?
Also looks like he missed some time last year with a knee injury and a quad injury. If that gets worse, he’s toast.
There seems to be something of a consensus developing that it isn’t as much the signing that folks are against, pending the contract numbers and assuming it doesn’t prevent another move in the outfield (whether moving someone like EE or another FA signing), as it is the fear that Taveras is going to get 600 AB at the top of the lineup. That seems reasonable to me, although the defensive numbers for him and Taveras worry me. I am really not sure we are getting any better there.
Did the up-the-middle defense improve? IMHO, Hernandez, Gonzalez, and Taveras are all big question marks.
Nick in VA, I would have been OK with Dickerson batting leadoff. Or a Dickerson/Hopper platoon if Hopp is healthy.
As poorly suited as Taveras is to lead off, his worst single-season OBP (.308) is 17 points higher than Patterson’s career mark. They both stink, but Taveras merely smells bad while Patterson is visibly curdled.
I don’t understand why Taveras’ salary has not been made public. How much did they overpaid this guy that it has to be kept hush hush?
“They both stink, but Taveras merely smells bad while Patterson is visibly curdled.”
I think you hit the mark. I am a breeder and in my experience I have found that the fresh piles smell the worst. If you come across one that’s been laying around for a while it’s usually not that pungent and you are almost happy to pick it up since it’s old and crusty. I think that’s why the outrage about Taveras now. If he’s at the top of the lineup, he’s nothing more than a fresh pile of something we are already used to, and that really stinks. If we drop him to eighth, then he’s a little old and crusty and might not seem like such a bad pickup. True, it doesn’t really change his composition, but it makes it tolerable and you can fool yourself into being happy about it.
Jim, the longer the contract terms go undisclosed the more I am curious what we have paid for our fresh pile myself. If management keeps talking him up before the announcement, I feel we got a larger pile than we first thought….
I’m wondering about his salary too. It seems funny that it hasn’t been released. GregD – I hope Dickerson and Hopp share the leadoff spot. Put Taveras further down. At least, as far as I know, Dusty doesn’t have a crush on Taveras like he did Patterson.
The final salary numbers, which always come a few days after the initial announcement, are likely delayed by the holiday. My guess is two years for $6.5 million.
Fun fact from the press release:
“His .907 stolen base percentage in 2008 was the highest by a Major League player, with a minium of 60 stolen bases, since those statistics have been compiled (since 1920 in the American League, since 1951 in the National League). The previous stolen base percentage record of .896 was established by the Pirates’ Tony Womack in 1997 (60-for-67).“
Rotoworld.com typically is pretty up-to-date on the salary front. They don’t have information yet, but they have the same thoughts as a lot of us. Preach, this also seems to answer your question about service time/control:
“Whether it’s Dan O’Brien, Wayne Krivsky or now Walt Jocketty, Reds GMs seem to love handing out multiyear deals to true mediocrities. Score a point for Taveras’ agent, who somehow convinced the Reds to go to two years after no one was willing to trade a minor prospect to the Rockies for him just a couple of weeks ago. What makes it especially silly in this case is that Taveras would have been under control for 2010 even if he had signed a one-year deal. He has just 4+ years of service time and wouldn’t have been eligible for free agency unless he was non-tendered again. Taveras almost certainly will act as the Reds’ everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter. Chris Dickerson, who had 17 extra-base hits in 102 at-bats last season (Taveras had 18 in 479), is still an option in left at the moment, but the Reds probably aren’t through.”
GregD — nice catch. This Taveras silliness, especially considering his service time, would be enough to get a GM fired from a contender. For the Reds, it’s an “exciting new acquisition.”
1) Personally, I think many of you are living in the past. The days of the Big Red Machine are over and the sooner some of you get on board with that the easier your lives will be. There are new restraints as Cincinnati has become a shell of the city it once was.
Cincinnati doesn’t have the resources to compete with the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. You have to build through the ranks and take calculated gambles on stop gap players and hope that, like Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, everything falls into place at the same time.
There can be no pleasing those who reflect longingly to see Pete Rose and Johnny Bench run out of the dugout.
2) I think there is nothing the organization could do to make some fans (usually the stats based fans) happy.
Had the team made no moves at CF/leadoff the same people who are saying we had better, cheaper in-house options than Taveras would be complaining that we didn’t make any moves.
When we make the moves either people immediately say how bad a move it is, or withhold judgment thus being able to complain when it doesn’t pan out. Question: Now that Thompson and Bray are clearly the better of Lopez/Kearns how many of you who loathed that trade ate your just deserved crow?
The reason it is usually the stats based fans who are so disappointed is because in order to bolster their discontent, they use whichever isolated stats factor best into their argument and ignore those that don’t. Stats prove whatever you want them to prove.
Taveras may end up being a bad signing, he may be a great signing but stats, like the eyeball of a trained scout, are only predictors of what can be expected – that’s why they play the game.
Yeah, Krivsky had a really ingenious plan to trade two every-day 2006 position players for a couple of arms who might make positive contributions at the major league level in 2009 and another arm in Majewski who has hurt the team the past 3 years. Let’s all stand up and applaud!
I’d also dispute that there is anything CLEAR about Thompson. He has 10 total starts above the AA level and a nice 6.91 ERA in his three major league starts. He is a fine, injury-prone pitching prospect, but that is all that is clear at this point.
The Kearns/Lopez trade was terrible simply b/c AT THE TIME they had far more trade value than that. The fact that they both got worse is irrelevant. AT THE TIME, I am convinced that you HAD to be able to get more for them.
That said, I am very optimistic about Bray. I think he’s going to be very good. I hope Baker gives him the chance (and I hope he’s used as more than a LOOGY).
I would say Kearns has been a bad investment for the Nationals. Exclude this past injury-shortened season and his numbers have been pretty decent, which isn’t easy consider the mess the Nats are.