Loading ...If Jerry Hairston, Jr., or Willy Taveras are starting for the Reds in 2009, is there any possibility that the Reds will be better offensively than they were last season? Any possibility at all?
Then, if the Reds are destined to be worse offensively next year, is there any reason to think they won’t endure yet another losing season?
The outfield is in shambles. Yes, I’m worried about next year, and given the ineptitude of this organization for the last decade, I’m having a hard time coming up with reasons to be optimistic.
So I come to you, the Nation, with a request. Give me some legitimate reasons to believe that this team will be a winner next year. Explain to me how the Reds haven’t gotten worse, and how they will finally break this string of losing seasons. I want to believe! Help me!
Aaron Harang wins 15-20 games, Cueto improves
if the reds dont get the clean-up hitting OF they have marked as the #1 priority this offseason and the “Key to Success” then Jocketty is admitting defeat. we can definately spare a minor league IF (Valiaka) and a SP (Thompson) and maybe another mid-level for a RH hitting LF. we would still be very deep in the minors at both SP, and 3B, so losing Valiaka and Thompson = no big deal. Signing Milton Bradley would even work. But a RH bat has to come or it is a joke!
A REAL SLAP IN THE FACE TO ALL REDS FANS!!!! I AGREE, KEEP OUR MINORS LEAGUE FOR THE MOST PART INTACT, BUT PLEASE VALIAKA IS PROJECTED TO BE A MAJOR LEAGUE 2B/3B, UNABLE TO PLAY SS. PHILLIPS IS OUR 2B FOR YEARS TO COME AND WE HAVE SO MUCH DEPTH AT 3B, EE/FRAZIER/FRANCISCO. IF WE CAN PULL OF A TRADE INVOLVING VALIAKA/THOMPSON, AND SAY A GUY LIKE JANISH, THIS WOULD NOT AFFECT THE FUTURE OF THE TEAM WHAT SO EVER. GET IT DONE!!!
I got nothing. Harang can’t win 15-20 games with that offense, unfortunately.
As of right now, I can’t provide a single reason why this team will win more than 80 games next season.
The lineup has lost power and has yet to add any speed. No one currently under serious FA consideration will add more power. And if Taveras is supposed to be the answer to the speed question, I refer you to the case of “Reds Fans v. Patterson” (2008). I expect Phillips to produce a similar season stat-wise, but I look for E5 to see an offensive drop-off due to not having a couple of big bats behind him. Bruce and Votto have the ability to be stellar, but they’re still young and could be due for the dreaded ’sophomore slump’. Overall, there’s been no real change made behind the plate with the bat or the glove. Shortstop is still a hole — A-Gon may or may not come back do his former averageness, and the other current possibilities (Kepp or Janish) have either no glove or no bat.
Pitching could be the bright point of the ‘09 Reds. However, they’ll need to win games 3-2 and 2-1 to do so. Harang needs to re-establish himself with a 15-win season and, as long as he stays out of a relief role, should be able to do that. I’ve got no faith in Arroyo’s consistency, but as long as he throws better than he sings, he may do all right. Volquez needs to show he can repeat the results of his first full year as a starter — that will be the make or break of the starting rotation. I look for Cueto to improve. Not getting beaten like a red-headed stepchild his second time around the league would be nice. The bullpen should be decent, if not good. The lack of offense this team promises, though, could place an unbearable burden on its relievers.
All in all, as of today, I’m seeing a squad that might go 68-94 at worst and 77-85 at best.
With Hairston, its possible, but not likely. He would have to repeat last years lucky season over at least 120 games.
With Taveras, absolutely not. If he repeated his best season of his career, it still would be a below average season for his position.
Any reason to believe that Hairston can repeat that over 120 games? He’s — what? — 33 years old, and he’s never done it before in his life. Why should anyone expect that he could repeat one fluke season?
I’d love to be wrong about that one, because I really believe Hairston is going to be the Reds’ Opening Day center fielder in 2009.
…EE and Bruce play up to expectations, a number 5 starter more talented than me, Paterson gone, a decent (and deep) bullpen… I’m not saying we will have a winning season, but we might. It’s a little early to write them off.
Legitamate reasoning? I don’t got any. But there is that level of ‘you never know.’ The hope that Cueto improves. That Volquez can reproduce. A healthy Harang being the ace he’s been in the past. Arroyo puts together TWO good halves instead of being lights out in one half and awful in the other. The talent vying for the fifth rotation spot is actually decent with guys like Micah Owings and Homer Bailey and Ramon Ramirez. The pitching depth going into the year seems almost unreal compared to so many past seasons.Obviously with how the offense is looking so far it could be a very very long and painful season though.
Anything is possible but they could inch closer to .500 at the very least.
Personally, I’m just looking forward to the second half of the season when we might get our first look at Stubbs, Valaika, maybe even someone like Dorn, etc at the big league level.
This team finishing over .500? I don’t see how…as many of us said last year, this team is going to really struggle for runs.
As for needing a RH hitter, I borrowed this from Lance McAlister’s website today:
Would the world end if the Reds added a left handed bat?
The fact is the Reds need any batter that can hit right handed pitchers.
They were last in MLB hitting vs right handed pitchers in ‘08.
Stats vs RHP
BA .243 (30th), OPB .314 (28th), SLG .403 (23rd) OPB .716 (25th)
Stats vs LHP
BA .257 (21st), OBP .336 (16th), SLG .420 (14th) OPS .756 (14th)
Here is their W-L record in 2008
Reds vs LHP: 30-25 record
Reds vs RHP: 44-63
*The players that hurt the Reds vs RHP were Phillips (.247), Encarnacion (.235) and Keppinger (.225).
*Two of the three poorest hitters vs LHP are gone, Jr. (.212) and Dunn (.200)….Bruce remains (.190).
‘08 splits .vs LHP/RHP
Keppinger .360/.225
Hairston .345/.316
Phillips .296/.247
Edwin .292/.235
Dickerson .286/.309
Jr .212/.261
Dunn .200/.248
Bruce .190/.286
Herandez .283/.245) (O’s)
I think you’re premature at best. Jockety has unloaded some payroll, and is free now to shop. He’s not the compulsive type, it appears. But there’s a long way to go until pitchers and catchers report. Don’t panic.
i am not optimistic. even if harang reverts to his old self, even if cueto wins four more games, without someone to replace dunn’s offense, it won’t happen.
now, if we resigned dunn or signed burrell, i might reconsider, given that the pitching staff could be more than adequate.
If the Reds make no more moves, the team will most certainly not be any better offensively, and would most likely have another losing season. However, here are a couple reasons to be optimistic: 1)Bruce and Votto are almost guaranteed to improve on last year’s numbers. 2) We will absolutely get better production out of the CF spot, be it with Dickerson, Hopper, or even Hairston. (Not sure on Taveras…he’s just so bad) 3) We will absolutely get better production from catcher, regardless of who starts. 4) Cueto will definitely improve, Harang will probably revert at least somewhat to old form, and the #5 spot HAS to be better. 5) EdE and BP will most likely maintain their production from last year, so at least that is consistent.
Even with all of that, the Reds don’t make the playoffs, but a winning season isn’t COMPLETELY out of the question.
Well it feels like most recent seasons. Lots of tempered hope but no solid case for a postseason appearance. I’m on the patient side so I at least take pleasure from feeling confident that the cream of our farm system is the best it has been in quite a long time. The Reds need to find a way to keep focused and rid themselves of the real statistical disasters. How do you spot a Milton, Fogg, Patterson, etc.? Which 5th starter seems the least likely to throw up Belisle-like numbers? I think there is potential for star numbers but it’s just important to fill the bottom spots with at least average talent. The failure to do that gave 32 starts and 10 relief appearances (162.2 innings) to Belisle, Fogg, Bailey, Thompson, and Pettyjohn wherein they had an ERA of 7.86.
In 2007, there were 67 starts and 32 relief appearances (387.2 innings) given to Milton, Livingston, Belisle, Saarloos, Lizard, Dumatrait, and Bailey they had an ERA of 6.11 (coupled with the horrendous bullpen; 16 pitchers had era’s over 5 that year and only 3 were under 4.).
I don’t think I’m naive to expect we have a great chance to improve the 5th starter numbers (Owings/Ramirez) and also maintain the enhancements to the bullpen. With the top 4 starters looking pretty solid, I think the load on the offense will be less allowing for a bit more trial and error with the lineup. So that’s my somewhat positive spin.
I don’t expect to see BP settle into being an average offensive player. I think he is talented and driven and will make a step forward, especially if the pitching keeps the team in contention. I mention this because he’s really fallen out of favor due to his poor obp.
Unless the team OBP improves dramatically, the Reds will see no improvement offensively. A RH clean-up bat is useless on a team that cannot get on base any more often than this team did last year.
Well the good news is that we have a really solid rotation, even with the #5 starter not being decided yet.
We also have a few bright offensive players in Phillips, Votto and Bruce
But I agree with Y-City Jim…. we need to improve our team OBP and I do not think signing Taveras or Hairston will really get that done. If we had kept Dunn and signed someone like Baldelli (provided that the misdiagnosis was correct) we would have a better shot.
the only free agents out there that I feel would dramatically improve our team and move it closer to contention are:
Teixeira (no chance)
Abreu (no chance)
Baldelli (maybe, but only if he was really misdiagnosed)
Burrell (could the fans accept him? probably not, his defense is bad too)
Dunn (see Burrell)
Edmonds (too old, wants to play for legit contender)
Giambi (too old, can’t play in NL, fans would not like him)
Ramirez (hahahahahahahah)
That’s about all I see on the FA market, I’m not sure what tradeable assets we really have either…. or even who’s available on the market for us to get
Taveras is fast, what else do you want?
If they team they have now is the one that started the season, it’s last place for sure. However, there’s plenty of time to get another bat or two. No time for panic yet.
If the team they have now is the one that starts the season, it’s last place for sure. However, there’s plenty of time to get another bat or two. No time for panic yet.
Chad,
There is very little chance that Hairston can repeat his season from a year ago, but I would say its more likely than having a guy like Taveras all of a sudden be able to hit the ball out of the infield, which he has never shown the ability to do since maybe little league.
Still, losing 665 PA of absolute suck from Bako/Patterson and replacing them with just league average is going to help immensely. We still need another .800-.850 OPS bat in the lineup, preferably that played LF, but I think there is a very good chance we can put out a better offensive team than we did last year simply by avoiding Taveras and losing the ‘contributions’ of Bako and Patterson.
If nothing else is done the season ahead is doomed. period. Put a sign outside all GABP gates this season which says: “Lose ye all hope all those who enter here”.
Doomed.
Right now this is the worst lineup in major league baseball. It’s not even Christmas and my stomach hurts just thinking about the season to come.
Doomed, I say.
I’m sure Dusty will find a way to get “665 PA of absolute suck” into the lineup somehow.
Leading candidates as of Dec. 21, in order (combining likely suck-i-tude with likely playing time): Hernandez, Hairston,
Hanigan, Keppinger (only if they play him hurt again), Corey Patterson (until I see him in a different uniform).
Just posted about 30 min. ago on reds.com:
Reds have signed 35-year old veteran lefty Aaron Fultz to a minor league contract with a spring training invite.
This is the same Aaron Fultz who did not pitch a single inning in the majors last year.
If he can return to what he did in ‘07, then it’s a great FA sign. But, alas, I feel there’s a reason Cleveland cut him last March.
As it stands right now, 2008 Reds offense is probably the worst in the majors. There is no way, Walt is limiting his OF options to JHJ, WT, and RB.
Things I want for Christmas:
1. Sign Baldelli
2. Trade for Beltre
3. Trade for Dye
But I agreed with the group in that if some huge improvements are not made 2009 will be a long year.
I think Walt is smart to wait this out a little. This group of FA’s are going to be sadly disappointed with the contracts they receive. The Reds may end up with a valuable player they might not have been able to sign in a normal off year. The longer Walt waits the better deal he gets.
If we sign Willy and Hairston and they start the Reds staff will have to win games 2-1 or 1-0. As I said in the other thread…Distgusting.
I have less hope this year than I have had in a while, and that is saying something.
We should have good pitching and no hitting, complete oposite of years past.
And the problem with planning on winning low scoring games is that I’d think a lot would be determined by good defense and the Reds have done nothing to improve in that area either.
I agree with you, Glenn. Now that Furcal has signed, there aren’t any players out there who fit the Reds’ needs closely enough to spend big bucks for multiple seasons. But there will undoubtedly be a couple of surprising names available come late January, and corner outfielders are not terribly hard to find.
With Frazier, Fransisco and Valaika waiting in the wings, I’m beginning to think it would be smart to trade Edwin for Beltre. Their offensive production is quite comparable, but Beltre’s defense would really help the pitching staff and whichever guy “wins” the starting SS job.
I haven’t given up hope yet, because there are so many holes to fill that the team literally has to do something, but I’m terrified of the very real possibility that this will be our Opening Day lineup:
CF Taveras
SS Keppinger
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
LF Dickerson/Hopper
C Hernandez
Reason 1: no Corey Patterson. Chris Dickerson is a definite upgrade.
Reason 2: no Paul Bako. Hanigan and Hernandez are worlds better than Bako.
Reason 3: Harang will bounce back (as long as Baker doesn’t use him in relief.
Reason 4: Johnny Cueto now has a year under his belt and become an even better pitcher than he was last year.
Reason 5: I saw the improvement that Joey Votto made throughout the year and there is no reason to belive that won’t continue.
Reason 6: Jay Bruce has a year under his belt also and will make strides this year, especially against left hand pitching. And he is better defensively that Griffey.
Reason 7: I’m hopeful that EE will have a breakout year, both at the plate and defensively. If not, he’s gone.
Reason 8: Left field manned by Baldelli, Hopper, Hairston or Stubbs will be better defensively than Dunn.
Reason 9: Dunn and Griffey were the clubhouse leaders and both were slackers and others began playing with their lack of enthusiasm. Opposing broadcasters and journalists were asking if they had ever seen a more lackluster team. When Griffey and Dunn were gone Votto, Phillips, and Bruce became the team leaders and their enthusiasm for the game was contagious and was reflected on the field.
Reason 10: Josh Fogg won’t be pitching for the Reds.
Reason 11: With our youth leading the way, we had a winning record for the month of September.
Go Reds.
To say they will be worse in ‘09 than ‘08 is a real reach. I think they are better already for several reasons.
1. Will need fewer runs.
The Defense got better after the leftfielder and rightfielder were shipped out. Taveras or Hairston is an upgrade there.
If Gonzo is back defense is better again and he will definitely provide some power offensively (15 to 25 HRs).
2. Offensively:
Bruce ‘09 will be better than Bruce ‘08 and should pick up some of the power loss.
When Hairston was in the lead-off spot the offense was better. Either he, Taveras or Hopper can do this.
Dickerson (if he isn’t as good as ‘08) will provide the Griffey offense of ‘08 with better baserunning and defense.
If Hopper comes close to ‘07 that is an upgrade.
Hairston/Taveras (especially if Taveras adds 60+ steals) is an upgrade.
Hernandez/Hanigan a big upgrade over ‘08 catching.
Baserunning should be better also as won’t be so clogged up without the right fielder taking one base at a time and the leftfielder being too fat and slow.
The offense should be better. Even if not it will be better because of better defense.
To the negative posters: I understand the reason for the pessimism. Too many years of dashed hopes. Too many years of a supposed great Winter, decent April, but out of contention by all-star. I’ve learned Winter hype (possitive or negative) means nothing, stats do lie, and you can’t count on a player (whether for better or worse) having the same year as last year. Winning seasons, playoffs and championships are great, but I just want to see solid fundamental baseball at this point. All the rest of that stuff will happen when I get my first wish.
As far as the offense question is concerned: I don’t mind that we’ve lost a little offense (though I’m not convinced we have yet), we lost last year because of our defense. And other than loosing Dunn, I feel that perhaps we’ve gotten a bit worse this offseason. My feeling is quit worrying about bringing in a right-handed stick for the outfield, get us a defensive master with a .250 average.