Loading ...From today’s Enquirer, comparing the Reds hopes for a turn around to Tampa:
Tampa Bay had more room for defensive improvement than the Reds, but it’s still a sound strategy. The Rays changed players everywhere but catcher, first base and left field. The Reds should change everything but catcher, first base, right and center.
His idea for 2009:
The Reds’ makeover should include going after Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts with a trade package of Edwin Encarnacion, minor-league infielder Chris Valaika (he’s in the Reds plan for 2010; the Orioles don’t have any minor-league infielders on the cusp) and any two young Reds starting pitchers who aren’t named Volquez or Cueto. If the Oriloles want somebody more major-league ready, sub Chris Dickerson for Valaika and give the O’s one of the pitchers.
The Reds are weakest defensively at third base and shortstop, the latter of which could be solved by moving second baseman Brandon Phillips to short and making room for Roberts at second.
On the idea of going after Adrian Beltre and the future of the 3rd base position:
If the Reds were closer to contending and farther from having their third baseman of the future up here by 2010 , we’d suggest going after Seattle third baseman Adrian Beltre, who was 23 runs above average defensively last season. Even if he was only 10 runs above average defensively, he’d be a 25-run improvement on defense over Encarnacion.
But the Reds have third base options on the cusp: Valaika, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco. Later, look out for Neftali Soto; he’s only 19, but man can he hit.
If the Reds don’t trade Encarnacion, they should move him to left field. Ryan Braun made the same move for the Brewers last year and went from a 23 runs below average third baseman to a nine runs above average left fielder. Even if he were only average defensively, he’d be as valuable to the Reds as Phillips. Don’t believe it? Check the ‘08 stats.
And his beliefs on what to do with the infield:
We like moving Phillips to short. True, Phillips likes second base; it got him a big contract. But that’s not the Reds’ concern; fielding a winning team is.
Even if Phillips is only average at short, and Roberts “is what he is” at second, then defensively the Reds would net 5-10 runs. But together they would gain about 40 runs, because of their offensive ability; that’s a net five more victories. Phillips would be “replacing” Jeff Keppinger at short. And a Keppinger-and-Gonzalez platoon at third, would hold things down till the cavalry arrives in 2010.
Interesting ideas, should bring about some spirited discussion…
I’ve got to say it because I keep having to read it. Correct me if I’m wrong but Phillip’s defensive minor league stats are very similar to Chris Valaika. If people are semi-convinced Valaika won’t stick at short why should we be so convinced Phillips could?
Also didn’t address the fact that Brian Roberts is a free agent after the 09 season who I believe has a strict no-trade clause as to which teams he can be traded too.
So Erardi thinks the Reds catching situation is fine?
i think Hanigan would be fine as a starting catcher. his defense is solid and his OBP in the minors is a robust .383. he has little to no power, but as long as he plays plus defense and gets on base at something like a .340-.350 clip, he is an average major league catcher. and he is paid the league minimum, which makes him incredibly valuable.
I agree, Charlie. I’m fine w/ planning on something like 400 AB’s for Hanigan next year.
Wouldn’t mind having Ross back (cheap!) as his backup…
Javy, in my opinion, seems like a great guy, but has been a waste of a roster spot. When you only get 25 guys, you can’t use one of them for a designated pinch hitter (who’s not even THAT great a hitter at that)…
Hmm, we could trade a bunch of prospects for Roberts (.828 OPS), or we could just get Orlando Hudson for 3-5 years from Free Agency, get similar (maybe slightly less) production, and still have trading chips for other positions.
If we are waiting until 2010, then our likely lineup is as follows:
2B: Hudson
LF: Votto
1B: Alonso
RF: Bruce
3B: Frazier
SS: Phillips
CF: Stubbs
C: Hanigan/Trade for some stud
SP: Cueto, Volzquez, Harang, Thompson, Bailey (or Ramirez, Wood, Owings…)
And that’s assuming that Valaika won’t prove to be a dynamo offensive second baseman.
So why do you trade for a position of strength when we still have a year until all the pieces of the puzzle are ready?
Wait a year, see how things develop, and then unload Encarnacion, Phillips/Hudson (if Valaika progresses like he should), and who ever else.
I’d say unless they can get a top flight CF or Catcher, I wouldn’t trade any of my prospects yet.
And yes, I’m implying the Reds should trade Arroyo at some point in the next year or two to make way for some of the younger starting pitchers.
Trading all that for Brian Roberts is simply ridiculous, in my opinion.
Brothers…Wood who? He hasn’t done squat in the minor leagues. Stubbs isn’t doing anything in Winter Ball but maybe…other than that it looks okay. The Reds really do need a LHP starter though.
Re: LHP starter…
I like Edwin pretty well actually, but what do you think about trading EE to SF for Jonathan Sanchez?
Sanchez is a young power lefty who hasn’t quite put it all together yet… but I think he will. Look at his awesome K numbers in the minors…
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Jonathan-Sanchez.shtml
If nothing else, he could become a power lefty long reliever (TRUE long reliever) a la Hong-Chih Kuo for the Dodgers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kuoho01.shtml
That said… I’d still love to keep Affeldt for another year or two. He’s good.
So’s Bray, by the way, if Dusty can grasp the idea that he too doesn’t have much of a platoon differential — he can be left in there against righties too!
Enough with the Beltre crap already! Its not coincidence that he puts together his best seasons when he is heading for free agency. Otherwise he is a BUM who will make 5 times the salary of EE.
Depending on what Beltre would cost, I don’t think it’s a terrible idea. His stats have been CRUSHED by playing in Seattle. He’s been fairly good on the road.
Beltre 2008 home – .240/.303/.400
Beltre 2008 road – .292/.349/.512
Beltre 2007 home – .264/.319/.426
Beltre 2007 road – .288/.320/.538
etc.
He is OBP challenged (like Phillips) but if he’d come at a reasonable cost, it might be a good idea.
His defense is apparently excellent.
By the way, he’ll be 30 in April, so he’s probably got 4-5 good years left.
(That said… I’d much rather come up with someone young and improving… and let’s not discount the idea that that very player could be Edwin!)
EE will be 26 in January… still pretty young.
But I just don’t know if he can ever become an average 3B defensively. That .935 career fielding percentage is rough.
Hey look, yet another sensible argument for moving Phillips to SS. Nice to see the good writing from Erardi at the Enquirer.
In some earlier discussions on moving Phillips from 2B to SS it was implied that he was moved from SS to 2B by Cleveland because he “sucked” at SS. The following is some snippets from Baseball America prospect handbook in reference to Brandon Phillips defense throughout his minor league career. Keep in mind that these reports are derived from their discussions with “general managers, scouting directors, farm directors, scouts, managers, coaches and other people in the game.” I think you’ll find these comments interesting. Especially the one where it mentions that Omar Vizquel is reason that Phillips was moved to 2B. It’s obvious that Phillips has improved his concentration and maturity such that the throwing errors that plagued him in his late teens and early twenties would no longer be an issue. It’s high time the Reds moved thier best SS back to where he belongs and look for a 2B, which is easier to find, instead.
2000 – Age 18 – He also has the hands, arm strength and balance to stay at shortstop, even with the organizations depth in slick-gloved Latin prospects. … While Phillips tools are obvious, his fundamentals are still very raw both offensively and defensively.
2001 – Age 19 – Brandon has been compared to a young Barry Larkin. … Phillips is a high-ceiling middle infielder with a live, athletic body. He’s an above-average shortstop with soft hands, solid range, plus arm strength and superior lateral movement. … Phillips still needs to refine his skills. He routinely makes the spectacular play, but his youth sometimes shows up in the field and he loses concentration. He’s prone to not squaring up on his throws, causing throwing errors. … The Expos have an abundance of slick-fielding shortstops, but he’s their long-term answer.
2002 – Age 20 – Phillips is a potential five-tool player at a premium position. He has a live, athletic body and rare natural ability. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop with soft hands, solid range, superior lateral movement, excellent first-step quickness and a cannon for an arm. He has enough power on his throws to go into the hole and nail runners from short left field. … Despite Phillips ability to beat teams with his glove, bat or speed, he’s still rough around the edges. He made 18 errors in 55 FSL games. Though he cut his errors down to 12 in 67 Double-A contests and was much steadier after his promotion, he still needs to show more consistency with routine plays. … The Expos have an abundance of slick-fielding shortstops, but Phillips offense separates him from the rest of the pack.
2003 – Age 21 – After settling in at Triple-A Buffalo, Phillips flashed the five-tool ability that has always excited scouts. He earned a cameo on the big league roster in September and made several eye-popping plays at second base, his new position. He moved from shortstop because of Omar Vizquels presence on the big league club. … Phillips is a premier athlete who projects as an all-star at either middle-infield postion. As a shortstop, Phillips has drawn comparisons to a young Barry Larkin or Derek Jeter. … He has average range and plus arm strength at shortstop, and those tools play even better at second base. … He’s still learning how to turn the double play as a second baseman. Most important is his weight transfer as he comes across the bag, which can lead to him short-hopping throws to first.
Dan, as usual, I agree with you on everything except your disdain for Javy. I think an adequate switch hitter who can catch is hardly a waste of a roster spot. I always disagreed with Dusty’s and Narron’s opinion of his catching skills (that he was essentially unplayable there). I attributed Mackanin’s minor success to paying Javy more in 2007…
Actually Dave, I was even more impressed with the limited time Javy played corner infield spots. He is a better athlete than I gave him credit for. And there is nothing wrong with letting him catch once a week.
Beltre has made like 33M the past 3 years. Why would he all of a sudden become a bargain? You watch this guy day in and day out and you’ll be wondering how the Reds could have handed him a wad of cash. EE’s defensive problems are typically throwing are they not? I’ve seen him make many incredible stops at the hot corner. I just don’t see how we can throw him away and pay 10M+ for Beltre’s services. I am not sold on Encarnacion in left field. Has he ever played any outfield at any level before? It would make more sense to move him to first base and move Votto to left. Votto’s defense was pretty suspect at first I don’t think a switch to left would mean worse defense from him, and he did it the year before last. I wish Dusty had the cajones to experiment more with our personnel when our season was clearly finished, but you know the man just can’t throw in the towel he has that reputation to worry about…
Aaron, I was thinking it’s possible Beltre could be reasonable if either:
1) the Mariners pick up a bunch of his salary to move him, or…
2) He costs next to nothing in players to trade for b/c Seattle is so eager to get his contract off the books.
Either one seems feasible.
moving Votto to LF seems like a bad idea to me. he was actually one of the best defensive 1B in a league this year. his range is simply incredible. the only problem he has is with picking the short hop, and that is something im sure he is working on as we speak. it is a very easily remedied flaw in his otherwise very impressive total game. keep him at 1B.
im comfortable with EdE moving to LF. i dont know if he has ever played there, but it is a step down on the defensive spectrum for him. give him a few months shagging flies and i think he could be at least league-average there by spring. his arm and his instincts on the ball are solid, and although his footspeed isnt great, i think he would be just fine with a speed demon like Dickerson next to him.
and if you dont like EdE moving to LF, how about going after Cody Ross from Florida? the dude OPSed over .810 while playing above average CF last year. moving him to LF (he’s played all OF positions very well) would only improve his value defensively, and he shouldnt cost too much to get. the Marlins may be looking to limit payroll and he is arb-eligible for the first time.
Regardless of what Edwin’s problems are (throwing, fielding, or instincts), why should we expect them to get markedly better?
It’s not a stretch to say he’s the worst defensive third baseman in the game, and the metrics back that up. It doesn’t matter why he’s bad…the fact is he’s just bad.
Swapping out EE for Adrian would probably be worth 4 wins at least, even if the bats are the same (Adrian’s bat projects to be better, though).
The fact is whatever we think EE’s bat is worth, he gives it all back with his glove. If there’s an easier position on the diamond for him to play, he needs to be there.
If you take away Beltre’s one incredible season for the Dodgers I don’t see how you project him as a batter bat than EE. I flatly dispute that notion. I think we could expect a mediocre average and a terrible OBP with some decent power. If he was playing for free agency like he did in his last year for the Dodgers than maybe he would be properly motivated to return to near MVP form but otherwise his offensive stats are pretty horrible for a guy making that kind of salary.
EE cost us 4 games with his glove??? That’s news to me, man. I watched the first 2 months of the season, every game, and EE’s defense was not a primary culprit in our quick demise. Votto, on the other hand, got eaten up by a few grounders that should have been fielded. I assume he improved towards season end if you say he is one of the better fielding first baseman. If he has good range that would translate to the outfield as well I think. I still like the idea of EE at 1B and Votto in LF and sliding Phillips over to SS. All thi should have been tried in the final month just to see how it worked.
Lets keep in mind that Sparky Anderson made a lot of defensive changes before the Big Red Machine won back to back world series. Tony Perez went from 3B to 1B, Pete Rose went from 2B to 3B and even played some LF. EE’s bat is still a relative bargain and I think we can find a place for him somewhere if not at 3B.
You move Votto to Left Field simply because in the interim, Encarnacion would play one heckuva defensive 1B, and if/when Alonso forces his way into the major leagues, you have a spot for him. It also means that the Reds would only need to worry about 2B or SS and 3B this off-season.
You move Votto to Left Field simply because in the interim, Encarnacion would play one heckuva defensive 1B, and if/when Alonso forces his way into the major leagues, you have a spot for him. It also means that the Reds would only need to worry about 2B or SS and 3B this off-season.
Edwin’s glove is worth ~2 wins below average.
Adrian’s is worth ~2 wins above average. Netted out, that’s a 4 win improvement.
As for their bats, Adrian plays in the one of the worst hitting environments for a right handed hitter possible, Edwin in one of the best.
We talk a lot about moving around these guys. If Encarncion has trade value, which he does, then why not trade Encarncion for someone who is better suited for the position of need rather than moving him to OF?
Matt Kemp and Delmon Young are both readily available. Each brings substantially the same bag of offensive tools (sub .300 avg, sub .350 obp, avg. to above avg. power, though Kemps speed is far superior). The difference is, these guys play a better OF and are ideally suited for OF.
If anyone can/should change positions it could/should be Alonso. Baseball America, et al. has him listed as a 1B/3B. His defense is suspect at 3B but could be no worse than EE and he has experience playing 3B as well as 1B.
Moving EE to LF rather than making a deal for an OF has the potential of weakening two positions defensively. So, I guess what I’m saying is don’t potentially weaken all these positions by moving guys around i.e. EE to LF, Votto to 3B, Phillips to SS.
OK, well if Beltre could be had for reasonable then I would want to retain EE and move him to 1B.
1B EE
2B Kepp
SS Phillips
3B Beltre
LF Votto
CF Dickerson / Freel / Hopper
RF Bruce
that looks pretty good to me defensively. Kepp and Phillips should have been switched long ago for range purposes. This might be a good plan I could live with it.. its a shame Dusty didn’t have enough sense to foresee the need to try some things out with nothing to lose the last half of the season. I have really soured on him as manager… so I don’t expect any of these things to happen.
I buy the premise that we are two years away. How you jump from that to acquiring Roberts is where I get lost. I would give EE onemore year to see if he can play a tolerable 3b. If he can’t, make the move (either to 1st or lf depending on how the younger players develop)the following year. His bat plays better at 3b, if we can keep him there.
Philips is such a good 2b I hate moving him unless we absolutely have to. I would much rather find the shortstop option in the system or spend our free agent money there.
Dan,
You stole my thunder with the EE for Jonathan Sanchez idea! There could be a match there. The Giants need a third baseman and the Reds rotation is too righthanded. All the minutiae of salaries causes me to glaze over, but both are about even on the wage scale. That trade assumes Arroyo is the fodder to bring the righty corner OF to Cincinnati.
Why is Matt Kemp readily available? This is like Sheldon’s absurd claim that Rios is readily available. Other teams aren’t idiots. Kemp became a starter when Andrew Jones tanked so I don’t see why they would let him go unless they were overpaid. He had 606 ABs, 35 SBs and a .290 average. I love the guy but the odgers aren’t going to give him away unless we make it worth their while.
Aaron – the Twins are shopping Delmon Young and are looking at young 3B. Kevin Kouzmanoff’s name popped up in the St. Paul Pioneer Press. EE and Kouzmanoff are almost identical players. EE would surely get the deal done for Young.
As for Kemp, the Dodgers are loaded with OF. If the Dodgers re-sign Manny, which they are expected to do, then Manny and Ethier are your corner OF locks. That leaves Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp, Delwyn Young, and Xavier Paul.
The Dodgers cannot move Pierre or Jones because of their contracts. While Paul is in many ways the poor man’s Kemp, Paul has excellent upside and a much better arm.
So Paul’s development in many ways makes Kemp expendable. Given that Kemp has the most trade value, and that he was actively shopped before last season, you start seeing Kemp mentioned in more and more this year.
Well if we can get Kemp we should do it… but he got more ABs then Pierre & Jones… maybe we give them Homer Bailey and Freel… if they would take that we should do it in a heartbeat.
Delmon Young is a problem. If he is traded it would be three teams in three years. He can play but so could Carl Everett. The Reds don’t need that headache.
Charlie you said Votto was one of the best first basement in the league. He really wasn’t that good. There were alot of short hops he didn’t scoop he should have (Hatteberg and Conine did the year before saving EE some errors) and at times his concentration looked like it was in left field rather than first base. The knock on him in the minors was his defense. I think he improved as the year went on but please don’t put him the one of the best in the league category.
Well as I predicted I was chased from the Dodgers board for the mere mentioning of Kemp’s name. Like I said they aren’t idiots. They may have a glut of outfielders but everyone knows Kemp is worth more than the rest because of his age, salary, and great production last year. The Dodgers are not looking to unload him unless they are overpaid.
Aaron my point was that because Kemp is perceived as having the most value, he will bring the most in return. They have a logjam at OF. They can’t move Pierre or Jones. So that leaves three guys… Kemp, Young and Paul. Young is still very much a prospect. Paul is ready now, and a very similar player to Kemp. So if you are the Dodgers and want to fill holes then who do you trade? Kemp or Paul. Clearly Kemp brings back more return so Kemp is the guy to go.