Comments on: The Tampa Bay Rays are in the World Series http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/ A Cincinnati Reds Blog | Dishing out hot, creamy bowls of bloggy goodness Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:45:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: mhopp http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206815 mhopp Thu, 23 Oct 2008 00:49:45 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206815 I predict the Reds will be 80-82. I was right on at 74-88 for this year...but of course I said that in June so that isn't quite fair. No matter, they'll be better next year. I predict the Reds will be 80-82. I was right on at 74-88 for this year…but of course I said that in June so that isn’t quite fair. No matter, they’ll be better next year.

]]> By: Kurt Frost http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206777 Kurt Frost Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:46:32 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206777 You're not impressed by what? You’re not impressed by what?

]]> By: Shawn http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206286 Shawn Wed, 22 Oct 2008 16:40:51 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206286 Well, Kurt, you make your predictions for 2009 of how many wins each team will have, and we will compare you to PECOTA at the end of the season. Until then, I'm not that impressed. Well, Kurt, you make your predictions for 2009 of how many wins each team will have, and we will compare you to PECOTA at the end of the season. Until then, I’m not that impressed.

]]> By: preach http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206097 preach Wed, 22 Oct 2008 13:53:02 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206097 I think all of your points are spot on Greg. I really like Shealy. He never really got the opportunity in Colorado sitting behind Helton, but the Rockies thought enough of his bat to use him as the DH during interleague play. Not sure how his glove is, however, and part of the Rays success has been upgrading defense. Interesting enough is that Shealy was traded to KC for Affledt. The only issue I have with our comment 5 is that being an old school guy, I still think AVG, HR, RBI, and SB are important. The reason that they can be unpredictable indicators is because so many times they are dependant on who surrounds you in the lineup. I still think they are valuable for setting lineups and as a point of comparison for individual players. I think all of your points are spot on Greg. I really like Shealy. He never really got the opportunity in Colorado sitting behind Helton, but the Rockies thought enough of his bat to use him as the DH during interleague play. Not sure how his glove is, however, and part of the Rays success has been upgrading defense. Interesting enough is that Shealy was traded to KC for Affledt. The only issue I have with our comment 5 is that being an old school guy, I still think AVG, HR, RBI, and SB are important. The reason that they can be unpredictable indicators is because so many times they are dependant on who surrounds you in the lineup. I still think they are valuable for setting lineups and as a point of comparison for individual players.

]]> By: Kurt Frost http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206094 Kurt Frost Wed, 22 Oct 2008 13:48:48 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206094 <em>6 - “Stat geek” or not, Baseball Prospectus had a preseason projection that the Rays would finish 14 games above .500. Did anyone else, regardless of method, pick the Rays to finish at or above .500?</em> Hell, I don't know, and I really don't care to look. But looking at PECOTA, it has the Angels winning 87, the Indians winning 92, the Twins winning 73 and finishing last, the White Sox winning 78 and finishing in third. It's wrong more than it's right. 6 – “Stat geek” or not, Baseball Prospectus had a preseason projection that the Rays would finish 14 games above .500. Did anyone else, regardless of method, pick the Rays to finish at or above .500?

Hell, I don’t know, and I really don’t care to look. But looking at PECOTA, it has the Angels winning 87, the Indians winning 92, the Twins winning 73 and finishing last, the White Sox winning 78 and finishing in third. It’s wrong more than it’s right.

]]> By: GregD http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206076 GregD Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:58:34 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1206076 1 - The Reds don't get Matt Garza from the Twins without giving up Jay Bruce 2 - The deal Krivsky really missed out on was Carlos Quentin. A RH OF bat undervalued by the D-Backs, went to the White Sox for very little. 3 - IF they're considering moving Votto to LF, then there are a few guys out there at 1st base with unrealized potential like Dan Johnson or Ryan Shealy who would cost next to nothing. 4 - <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=klapisch_bob&id=3643677" rel="nofollow">Leo Mazzone is a free agent</a>. I know they already renewed the coaching staff for 2009, but I think Mazzone would be a big upgrade for the Reds coaching staff. 5 - What's up with all the slams against statistical/data analysis as "fantasy stats". Fact is that most teams are employing data analysis as a part of their evaluation and decision making process. The other fact is that "fantasy stats" are AVG, HR, RBI, SB, which sabremetricians say are the stats that do not correlate well with scoring runs and winning games. 6 - "Stat geek" or not, Baseball Prospectus had a preseason projection that the Rays would finish 14 games above .500. Did anyone else, regardless of method, pick the Rays to finish at or above .500? 1 – The Reds don’t get Matt Garza from the Twins without giving up Jay Bruce

2 – The deal Krivsky really missed out on was Carlos Quentin. A RH OF bat undervalued by the D-Backs, went to the White Sox for very little.

3 – IF they’re considering moving Votto to LF, then there are a few guys out there at 1st base with unrealized potential like Dan Johnson or Ryan Shealy who would cost next to nothing.

4 – Leo Mazzone is a free agent. I know they already renewed the coaching staff for 2009, but I think Mazzone would be a big upgrade for the Reds coaching staff.

5 – What’s up with all the slams against statistical/data analysis as “fantasy stats”. Fact is that most teams are employing data analysis as a part of their evaluation and decision making process. The other fact is that “fantasy stats” are AVG, HR, RBI, SB, which sabremetricians say are the stats that do not correlate well with scoring runs and winning games.

6 – “Stat geek” or not, Baseball Prospectus had a preseason projection that the Rays would finish 14 games above .500. Did anyone else, regardless of method, pick the Rays to finish at or above .500?

]]> By: Kurt Frost http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205748 Kurt Frost Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:51:39 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205748 Stat geeks genuflect before PECOTA. I'm not that impressed. Stat geeks genuflect before PECOTA. I’m not that impressed.

]]> By: Dan http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205590 Dan Tue, 21 Oct 2008 21:26:42 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205590 Kurt, Who or what predicted that Tampa would have more than 88 wins before this season? Did you? I doubt it. PECOTA was the only thing I saw before the season that had Tampa over .500. After 10 straight losing seasons (BAD losing seasons -- averaging something like 65 wins a year), I am very impressed with that prediction. Kurt, Who or what predicted that Tampa would have more than 88 wins before this season? Did you? I doubt it.

PECOTA was the only thing I saw before the season that had Tampa over .500. After 10 straight losing seasons (BAD losing seasons — averaging something like 65 wins a year), I am very impressed with that prediction.

]]> By: Kurt Frost http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205510 Kurt Frost Tue, 21 Oct 2008 18:45:05 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205510 <em>Kurt, Pecota had them finishing third, but didn’t it have them with 88 wins and finishing third? Not exactly a 3rd place record.</em> PECOTA was only off by 9 wins. I could probably guess better than that. Kurt,
Pecota had them finishing third, but didn’t it have them with 88 wins and finishing third? Not exactly a 3rd place record.

PECOTA was only off by 9 wins. I could probably guess better than that.

]]> By: Missy http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205406 Missy Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:43:58 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1205406 Go Rays! I left the St. Pete/Tampa area on October 19th after having been there for 10 days. They are so excited about their team. Everyone, everywhere supports them! Carlos Pena lives at the condos where we stay every year and he is like a God to them. I only wish Cincinnati and surrounding communities had that type of excitement past opening day! I see it in Dayton for the Dragons every day and wish it were extended in Cincy! Again, Go Rays! Go Rays! I left the St. Pete/Tampa area on October 19th after having been there for 10 days. They are so excited about their team. Everyone, everywhere supports them! Carlos Pena lives at the condos where we stay every year and he is like a God to them. I only wish Cincinnati and surrounding communities had that type of excitement past opening day! I see it in Dayton for the Dragons every day and wish it were extended in Cincy! Again, Go Rays!

]]> By: Mr. Redlegs http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204980 Mr. Redlegs Tue, 21 Oct 2008 03:43:09 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204980 The Reds haven't sucked enough. The Rays were suckier than sucks to land in the top three of drafting almost every year. Don't let one great season in 10 cloud reality. This is a franchise targeted for extraction 3-4 years ago. And Tampa Bay is NOT a small market. The payroll may be low, but it's the No. 13 market--even ahead of Miami. In fact here's the NL Central markets: 3. Cubs 10. Astros 21. Cardinals 23. Pirates 34. Reds 35. Brewers The Reds haven’t sucked enough. The Rays were suckier than sucks to land in the top three of drafting almost every year. Don’t let one great season in 10 cloud reality. This is a franchise targeted for extraction 3-4 years ago.

And Tampa Bay is NOT a small market. The payroll may be low, but it’s the No. 13 market–even ahead of Miami.

In fact here’s the NL Central markets:

3. Cubs
10. Astros
21. Cardinals
23. Pirates
34. Reds
35. Brewers

]]> By: Y-City Jim http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204760 Y-City Jim Mon, 20 Oct 2008 22:07:40 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204760 <em>Basically, the Rays are so good now exactly because they were SO bad for the last 10 years (and because, given very high draft picks, they’ve done well with them, at least the past few years).</em> Don't we have to tan two more seasons to reach that ten years of futility? Please don't tell me that we haven't sucked enough. Basically, the Rays are so good now exactly because they were SO bad for the last 10 years (and because, given very high draft picks, they’ve done well with them, at least the past few years).

Don’t we have to tan two more seasons to reach that ten years of futility? Please don’t tell me that we haven’t sucked enough.

]]> By: Dan http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204739 Dan Mon, 20 Oct 2008 21:35:08 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204739 Well... yes, Tampa has put together a great young team and the Reds would do well to do likewise... but let's not forget that it doesn't hurt to have one of the top 3 picks in the whole draft year after year after year... Basically, the Rays are so good now exactly because they were SO bad for the last 10 years (and because, given very high draft picks, they've done well with them, at least the past few years). I'm not sure I want the Reds to tank an entire decade just to have that! ;) Well… yes, Tampa has put together a great young team and the Reds would do well to do likewise… but let’s not forget that it doesn’t hurt to have one of the top 3 picks in the whole draft year after year after year…

Basically, the Rays are so good now exactly because they were SO bad for the last 10 years (and because, given very high draft picks, they’ve done well with them, at least the past few years).

I’m not sure I want the Reds to tank an entire decade just to have that! ;)

]]> By: Deaner http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204724 Deaner Mon, 20 Oct 2008 21:19:31 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204724 This seems odd to say considering their performance before this season, but the Rays have become a model organization (like the Twins) for how to win in a small-market. The Rays have done everything right: good draft picks, organizational developement, smart trades, and international scouting. The Reds can learn a few things from this Tampa Bay club. They need to start by stressing the fundamentals. This seems odd to say considering their performance before this season, but the Rays have become a model organization (like the Twins) for how to win in a small-market. The Rays have done everything right: good draft picks, organizational developement, smart trades, and international scouting.

The Reds can learn a few things from this Tampa Bay club. They need to start by stressing the fundamentals.

]]> By: Y-City Jim http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204669 Y-City Jim Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:09:30 +0000 http://redlegnation.com/2008/10/20/the-tampa-bay-rays-are-in-the-world-series/#comment-1204669 <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBR/2008.shtml" rel="nofollow">Look at the OBP and OPS+ of the starting line-up and bench.</a> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2008.shtml" rel="nofollow">Compare that to the Reds OBP and OPS+</a> Let the base clogging begin!!! Look at the OBP and OPS+ of the starting line-up and bench.

Compare that to the Reds OBP and OPS+

Let the base clogging begin!!!

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