It wouldn’t surprise me to see Hanigan make the roster, but I wouldn’t anoint him the starter, yet. There’s no depth at that position, and I would expect that there will some consideration of trading for a catcher from Texas, Cleveland, or Seattle.
Although I know most of us are trying to keep our expectations low for 2009, here’s a word of encouragement from that guy who runs mlbtradrumors.com in his chat yesterday:
2:45 [Comment From New Team]
Every year a new team comes into the playoff picture. The Rays with this great season, last year in the Rockies. 06′ The Tigers bounced back? Does a new team come into the picture in ‘09? if so who?
2:45 I like the Reds as a sleeper, but I gotta see how their offseason shakes out.
2:49 [Comment From Reds Fan] Wow the Reds a sleeper in 2009? I love it ! But what would the Reds offseason have to look like to be competitive all season and be that sleeper team?
2:50 I would like to see them bring in a quality left fielder, try Dickerson/Stubbs in CF. Then I would move EE and try to get Beltre. They pull something like that off and they could compete.
Looking at Beltre’s numbers, he’s only a little bit of an upgrade offensively from EdE. (or not at all, depending on how important OBS is to you compared to OPS+)
Career lines:
EdE: .266 .346 .455 OPS+ 103
Beltre: .271 .327 .459 OPS+ 107
Obviously the big draw here is Beltre as an upgrade in defense. I personally believe that our defense is one of the most important improvements we need to make. The bad news is he’s owed 12 million. He’s only signed for 1 year, which would mean he’d be filling a hole until somebody like Frazier or Alonso was ready in 2010.
Who would we have to give up for him? I personally think this isn’t a bad idea, if we’ve got 21 million to spend, that’s 9 million left over to fill other holes. The same website has suggested EdE for Delmon Young of the Twins (.292 .326 .413 OPS+ 96), who’s probably on the market and they need a 3B, but as far as I’m concerned EdE’s OBP and SLG make him way more valuable, and also cheaper. This is getting long, but how would that seem for next year? Edwin in LF, Beltre at 3B. The management mentioned moving Edwin, didn’t they? I’d send Bailey/Thomspon and Francisco (who as Doug pointed out may be way overvalued right now) or something like that. Is that too much?
I agree in not annointing him the starter but it looks like he’ll get it regardless. Indians have Shoppach, who correct me if I’m wrong is the same age as Hanigan and hits .260 with a .348 OBP.Do you think Hanigan can produce those same numbers full time? I honestly do. Texas has Salty who is much younger so who knows about that one. Who does Seattle have? I know they got Johjima which has bit them pretty hard considering how bad he’s been. Clement? He, like Saltalamacchia is interesting but I doubt he’d come cheap.
Like I said though I don’t think Hanigan or ANYONE on the team should be given starter jobs but barring a trade I’d take Hanigan over the free agents pool. I’m dreading that Josh Bard statment I read. 2007 stat: 121 stolen bases allowed and 10 caught stealing. The offseason will certainly be interesting.
Depending on if they moved salary to Seattle in the deal, they might not have to absorb the whole $12M, just the incremental difference in salaries swapped. Move Arroyo in the deal, as an example, and they only pick up an extra $2M.
Seems to me that at this point Hanigan should be the starter. His defense is solid, his bat should be at least decent, and I’m not sold on any of the Texas catchers. I’d rather get someone like Bard to be the backup rather than give up good prospects for somebody who could end up as Hanigan’s backup anyway. Regardless, hooray for no more Bako/Patterson!!!!!
I’ve been saying that a platoon of Dickerson and Stubbs in CF is a terrific solution to the CF “hole.”
It is certainly an intriguing proposition to obtain Young for EdE. Then what? Who plays 3B? Unless you think Alonso is ready and Votto and Alonso play 3B and 1B.
Teagarden is the guy from TX that I would make a push for. He has higher upside than Salty.
Y City Jim - correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the premise of “Hanigan should only be the starter if the Reds cannot find someone better.” kind of goes without saying. Anybody can be a starter….until they find someone better. Apparently they played Cory Patterson, thinking they had no one better. I hope they use a different measuring stick this year.
Well, the team should be .500 with losing the Mendoza twins. I wouldn’t trade the younsters away just to pay a high salary to someone who may end up like Griffey. The CF position is the most important since Hanigan is solid with defense, showed he can hit MLB pitching and has experience with many of the young pitchers and handled the others well. I say keep LLM as a back up catcher and pinch-hitter. SS is second most important and really should switch Kepp and Phillips. I agree that EE would be much better if paired with a better SS.
In summary I don’t think they’re going anywhere except maybe slighly above .500 with Baker still controlling things, although maybe that will be better with WJ on board a little longer.
kevin, don’t get too excited the Reds were picked as a “Dark Horse” in 2008 and look what happend. Hope for .500 and anything better is iceing on the cake.
Y City Jim - correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the premise of “Hanigan should only be the starter if the Reds cannot find someone better.” kind of goes without saying
Then why do I hear so many wanting to hand him the keys to the job? The Reds should be in the mindset right now to find a proven, quality starting catcher. Hanigan should be viewed as their fallback if those efforts fail.
On the comments that EE is a better defensive SS when paired with a real ML SS. In a mid-September interview, Brandon Philipps flat out said that EE was a better 3rd baseman in 2007 because of having Gonzo at SS. In fact he said the whole infield was better in 2007 because of Gonzo’s play and leadership. (Even though as we know Alex had an off year defensively in 2007.)
This is not about Gonzo, I don’t know if he’ll be healthy in 2009 or the same player he used to be, but it is about the importance of a high caliber SS. Without that, your infield will suck.
Maybe the overall defense is better w/ Gonzalez at SS, but how does a SS affect the defense of a 3B? Batted balls get to the 3B before the SS even has a chance to field it.
I am STRONGLY in favor of emphasizing great defense at C, 2B, SS, and CF for the Reds. But I don’t see how any of it would affect Edwin over at 3B.
The idea might be that with better range a short stop could cover what EdE didn’t get to, but from the few games I ever watch, I usually see EdE’s problem with making errors on his throws to first, which a short stop wouldn’t fix, right? He’s actually pretty good at stopping the ball. As far as the BP comment goes, I believe him, since he knows what he’s talking about and I don’t, but I wonder what it is that makes EdE’s defense better? Leadership, range, something else?
I am still in favor of moving him to LF, and getting Beltre for one year, which I think improves our defense whether or not there’s a high calliber short stop. If the Beltre trade were to happen, I don’t think that it will involve any kind of contract dumping on our part, nor them picking up part of his pay, because they’re need to trade Beltre is completely based on the need to unload payroll and rebuild.
Say we’ve got 9 million left over after we pick up Beltre, though, is that enough to make a run at Furcal, who would be a good SS and also fill any need for a leadoff man? With those two guys, I wonder if Dickerson/Stubbs in CF and Hanigan behind the plate would look so bad. That being said, I still have no idea what kind of package/player we’d have to give up for Beltre.
The Pirates gave up on Aramis Ramirez.The Marlins gave up on Mike Lowell (forced Red Sox to take him if they wanted Beckett).
Weren’t those just salary dumps?
Not just Salary Dumps for Ramirez and Lowell although wages always come into play.
His last full year in Pittsburgh Ramirez had numbers of .234 Avg., 18 HR, 71 rbi and committed 19 errors. The organization thought he was going backwards rather than forward so traded him. Numbers and excuse sounds familiar.
Mike Lowell’s last season in Florida was .236 Batting Average, 8 HR and 58 rbi in 150 games. They thought he was going backward.
Right, I’m with you NickP, that I’m not going to argue with Brandon Phillips, who was infield with the two for a whole season. I was just wondering what it is that has that effect (which no one has actually explained yet). But, anyway, I don’t want to give up on EdE, either, but why can’t he go to LF? I think Jocketty mentioned it, right?
I’m just thinking that good players play better on a better team! Better coaches bring out the best in players. I definitely do not see this being done on the Reds team although BP and Volquez are examples of this.
October 8th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Sounds like Hanigan is going to get the starters job.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
now if we can only sign Adam Dunn as a Free Agent…. lol
October 8th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Hanigan make the roster, but I wouldn’t anoint him the starter, yet. There’s no depth at that position, and I would expect that there will some consideration of trading for a catcher from Texas, Cleveland, or Seattle.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Although I know most of us are trying to keep our expectations low for 2009, here’s a word of encouragement from that guy who runs mlbtradrumors.com in his chat yesterday:
2:45 [Comment From New Team]
Every year a new team comes into the playoff picture. The Rays with this great season, last year in the Rockies. 06′ The Tigers bounced back? Does a new team come into the picture in ‘09? if so who?
2:45 I like the Reds as a sleeper, but I gotta see how their offseason shakes out.
2:49 [Comment From Reds Fan] Wow the Reds a sleeper in 2009? I love it ! But what would the Reds offseason have to look like to be competitive all season and be that sleeper team?
2:50 I would like to see them bring in a quality left fielder, try Dickerson/Stubbs in CF. Then I would move EE and try to get Beltre. They pull something like that off and they could compete.
Looking at Beltre’s numbers, he’s only a little bit of an upgrade offensively from EdE. (or not at all, depending on how important OBS is to you compared to OPS+)
Career lines:
EdE: .266 .346 .455 OPS+ 103
Beltre: .271 .327 .459 OPS+ 107
Obviously the big draw here is Beltre as an upgrade in defense. I personally believe that our defense is one of the most important improvements we need to make. The bad news is he’s owed 12 million. He’s only signed for 1 year, which would mean he’d be filling a hole until somebody like Frazier or Alonso was ready in 2010.
Who would we have to give up for him? I personally think this isn’t a bad idea, if we’ve got 21 million to spend, that’s 9 million left over to fill other holes. The same website has suggested EdE for Delmon Young of the Twins (.292 .326 .413 OPS+ 96), who’s probably on the market and they need a 3B, but as far as I’m concerned EdE’s OBP and SLG make him way more valuable, and also cheaper. This is getting long, but how would that seem for next year? Edwin in LF, Beltre at 3B. The management mentioned moving Edwin, didn’t they? I’d send Bailey/Thomspon and Francisco (who as Doug pointed out may be way overvalued right now) or something like that. Is that too much?
October 8th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I agree in not annointing him the starter but it looks like he’ll get it regardless. Indians have Shoppach, who correct me if I’m wrong is the same age as Hanigan and hits .260 with a .348 OBP.Do you think Hanigan can produce those same numbers full time? I honestly do. Texas has Salty who is much younger so who knows about that one. Who does Seattle have? I know they got Johjima which has bit them pretty hard considering how bad he’s been. Clement? He, like Saltalamacchia is interesting but I doubt he’d come cheap.
Like I said though I don’t think Hanigan or ANYONE on the team should be given starter jobs but barring a trade I’d take Hanigan over the free agents pool. I’m dreading that Josh Bard statment I read. 2007 stat: 121 stolen bases allowed and 10 caught stealing. The offseason will certainly be interesting.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
EEs defense will be and is better when he is teamed with a major league defensive shortstop.
The Pirates gave up on Aramis Ramirez.
The Marlins gave up on Mike Lowell (forced Red Sox to take him if they wanted Beckett).
At least we know what we’ve got and he will get better if the shortstop is better.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Looking at Beltre’s numbers, he’s only a little bit of an upgrade offensively from EdE.
How does OPS+ adjust the OPS numbers?
Looking at Beltre’s home/road splits, I would suggest that his offensive numbers would look a lot better than Encarnacion’s.
OPS Splits
Beltre – 2008 - .784 OPS
Home .703
Road .862
Encarnacion – 2008 - .807 OPS
Home .854
Road .759
Beltre – 2007 – .802 OPS
Home .745
Road .858
Encarnacion – 2007- .794 OPS
Home .790
Road .799
Depending on if they moved salary to Seattle in the deal, they might not have to absorb the whole $12M, just the incremental difference in salaries swapped. Move Arroyo in the deal, as an example, and they only pick up an extra $2M.
October 8th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Seems to me that at this point Hanigan should be the starter. His defense is solid, his bat should be at least decent, and I’m not sold on any of the Texas catchers. I’d rather get someone like Bard to be the backup rather than give up good prospects for somebody who could end up as Hanigan’s backup anyway. Regardless, hooray for no more Bako/Patterson!!!!!
October 8th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
I’ve been saying that a platoon of Dickerson and Stubbs in CF is a terrific solution to the CF “hole.”
It is certainly an intriguing proposition to obtain Young for EdE. Then what? Who plays 3B? Unless you think Alonso is ready and Votto and Alonso play 3B and 1B.
Teagarden is the guy from TX that I would make a push for. He has higher upside than Salty.
October 8th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
The Pirates gave up on Aramis Ramirez.
The Marlins gave up on Mike Lowell (forced Red Sox to take him if they wanted Beckett).
Weren’t those just salary dumps?
October 8th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Hanigan should only be the starter if the Reds cannot find someone better.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Y City Jim - correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the premise of “Hanigan should only be the starter if the Reds cannot find someone better.” kind of goes without saying. Anybody can be a starter….until they find someone better. Apparently they played Cory Patterson, thinking they had no one better. I hope they use a different measuring stick this year.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Well, the team should be .500 with losing the Mendoza twins. I wouldn’t trade the younsters away just to pay a high salary to someone who may end up like Griffey. The CF position is the most important since Hanigan is solid with defense, showed he can hit MLB pitching and has experience with many of the young pitchers and handled the others well. I say keep LLM as a back up catcher and pinch-hitter. SS is second most important and really should switch Kepp and Phillips. I agree that EE would be much better if paired with a better SS.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
In summary I don’t think they’re going anywhere except maybe slighly above .500 with Baker still controlling things, although maybe that will be better with WJ on board a little longer.
kevin, don’t get too excited the Reds were picked as a “Dark Horse” in 2008 and look what happend. Hope for .500 and anything better is iceing on the cake.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
mhopp the Reds won’t get too far with Keppinger as a starter at any position.
October 8th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Y City Jim - correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the premise of “Hanigan should only be the starter if the Reds cannot find someone better.” kind of goes without saying
Then why do I hear so many wanting to hand him the keys to the job? The Reds should be in the mindset right now to find a proven, quality starting catcher. Hanigan should be viewed as their fallback if those efforts fail.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:42 am
On the comments that EE is a better defensive SS when paired with a real ML SS. In a mid-September interview, Brandon Philipps flat out said that EE was a better 3rd baseman in 2007 because of having Gonzo at SS. In fact he said the whole infield was better in 2007 because of Gonzo’s play and leadership. (Even though as we know Alex had an off year defensively in 2007.)
This is not about Gonzo, I don’t know if he’ll be healthy in 2009 or the same player he used to be, but it is about the importance of a high caliber SS. Without that, your infield will suck.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:28 am
Maybe the overall defense is better w/ Gonzalez at SS, but how does a SS affect the defense of a 3B? Batted balls get to the 3B before the SS even has a chance to field it.
I am STRONGLY in favor of emphasizing great defense at C, 2B, SS, and CF for the Reds. But I don’t see how any of it would affect Edwin over at 3B.
Do you see what I mean?
October 9th, 2008 at 8:27 am
The idea might be that with better range a short stop could cover what EdE didn’t get to, but from the few games I ever watch, I usually see EdE’s problem with making errors on his throws to first, which a short stop wouldn’t fix, right? He’s actually pretty good at stopping the ball. As far as the BP comment goes, I believe him, since he knows what he’s talking about and I don’t, but I wonder what it is that makes EdE’s defense better? Leadership, range, something else?
I am still in favor of moving him to LF, and getting Beltre for one year, which I think improves our defense whether or not there’s a high calliber short stop. If the Beltre trade were to happen, I don’t think that it will involve any kind of contract dumping on our part, nor them picking up part of his pay, because they’re need to trade Beltre is completely based on the need to unload payroll and rebuild.
Say we’ve got 9 million left over after we pick up Beltre, though, is that enough to make a run at Furcal, who would be a good SS and also fill any need for a leadoff man? With those two guys, I wonder if Dickerson/Stubbs in CF and Hanigan behind the plate would look so bad. That being said, I still have no idea what kind of package/player we’d have to give up for Beltre.
October 9th, 2008 at 10:01 am
The Pirates gave up on Aramis Ramirez.The Marlins gave up on Mike Lowell (forced Red Sox to take him if they wanted Beckett).
Weren’t those just salary dumps?
Not just Salary Dumps for Ramirez and Lowell although wages always come into play.
His last full year in Pittsburgh Ramirez had numbers of .234 Avg., 18 HR, 71 rbi and committed 19 errors. The organization thought he was going backwards rather than forward so traded him. Numbers and excuse sounds familiar.
Mike Lowell’s last season in Florida was .236 Batting Average, 8 HR and 58 rbi in 150 games. They thought he was going backward.
Don’t give up EE before his star shines.
October 9th, 2008 at 10:11 am
The shortstop does matter to the other defensive positions.
Check out the great defensive third basemen in baseball history and you usually find a quality fielding shortstop next to them.
Brooks Robinson - Luis Aparicio and Mark Belanger
Mike Schmidt - Larry Bowa
and, imagine Pete (an adequate third baseman) if Davey wasn’t next to him.
One thing Phillips mentioned about Gonzo and EE was the calming influence Gonzo had on the younger players.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Just because a great SS can make more plays to mask how awful the 3B next to him is doesn’t mean he makes that awful 3B better.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Go check the stats. EEs best defensive year with the Reds was when Gonzo was the shortstop.
Never going to be great but can be adequate.
Brandon Phillips said it and he probably knows a little bit more about it than all of us.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Because players are experts on the sport. I agree.
Just ask Joe Morgan.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Right, I’m with you NickP, that I’m not going to argue with Brandon Phillips, who was infield with the two for a whole season. I was just wondering what it is that has that effect (which no one has actually explained yet). But, anyway, I don’t want to give up on EdE, either, but why can’t he go to LF? I think Jocketty mentioned it, right?
October 9th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
I’m just thinking that good players play better on a better team! Better coaches bring out the best in players. I definitely do not see this being done on the Reds team although BP and Volquez are examples of this.