–The Reds are on the board as a 50-1 longshot to win the World Series next year. Hey, that’s better than 7 other teams (SF, KC, Baltimore, Seattle, SD, Pittsburgh, DC).

The Red Sox are favored to win the championship in 2009, followed by the Cubs, Angels, Phillies, Yankees, and Rays.

More stuff I’ve been meaning to link:

–ShysterBall has a good post on Junior Griffey’s prospects on the free agent market. The money quote:

The only possible landing pad I see for him is as a gate attraction as the DH in Seattle, because at least there he constitutes an actual upgrade in performance. If they’re not interested, I think it’s entirely possible that he retires.

Unfortunately, I tend to agree.

–With the GM Meetings ongoing in California, our intrepid GM Walt Jocketty says he’s ready to start building. Go read the article, but try to skim past the part about Mark Mulder. It’s difficult to stomach.

–Finally, I’ve been meaning to link to a just-discovered Reds blog, Dunn and Dunner. Good stuff.

Jeremy Affeldt and Mike Lincoln have filed for free agency, the first two 2008 Reds to so declare.

I wouldn’t mind having both of them back next season.

Over at FanGraphs, there’s a fairly thoughtful post about Aaron Harang’s 2008 season, and what to expect from the big guy going forward. The conclusion:

This past season saw his highest percentage of flyballs in a full season at 44%, so he threw more balls in the air, and a higher percentage than usual left the park. This should regress moving forward, but the dropoff in strikeouts does signal some sense of a dropoff. He lost some velocity on the fastball, but nothing drastic enough to claim a large role in the much poorer 2008 campaign. Is Harang as bad as he performed in 2008? No, not by a longshot, but there was a serious performance decline here that cannot be chalked up solely as bad luck, which could have to do with some type of injury, or could signal the start of his decline. He will likely be much better next season, but the potential award winner from 2005-07 may be gone for good.

Rob Neyer (subscription required) notes further:

The Reds are going to be a popular dark horse next spring, but they’re not going far unless Harang is luckier (likely) and better (who knows?).

Indeed.

Wanna waste some money? Sure, we all do!

The Reds will at least explore signing left-hander Mark Mulder, whose option was turned by the Cardinals last week. “I’ve got to see what the medical situation is,” Jocketty said. “I traded for him and re-signed him. I obviously liked him.”

Mulder has been limited to 12 2/3 innings over the last two years by shoulder problems. He was 97-50 with a 3.87 ERA before his shoulder problems began three years ago.

Mulder’s career as an effective pitcher is over. Move on, Uncle Walt.

Congratulations to the Phillies and their fans.

My wife has ordered me to describe my reaction as the Phillies were celebrating last night’s World Series victory on the field. As I was watching the players diving onto the pile, I twice muttered, “stupid Reds.”

I want nothing more than to see the Reds celebrating like that, but this organization has bumbled and stumbled their way to about a hundred straight losing seasons.

Stupid Reds. No closer to winning a championship than they were eight years ago. I’m tired of the losing and the ineptitude. I’m tired of the excuses and the illogical management. I’m just…tired.

UPDATE: And still I can’t wait for pitchers and catchers to report….

At least according to John Fay and the Denver Post…

But he thinks it would cost Johnny Cueto, at least.

Watching the Phillies and Rays tonight, and seeing all the excitement at Citizen’s Bank Park (white flags waving, people going nuts)…all I can think is how much fun it is going to be at Great American Ballpark, if and when the Reds ever make it back to the World Series. I can guarantee I will be there, and it’s going to be a great atmosphere.

Gotta keep dreamin’….

Okay, time to discuss CoCo. No, not this Koko; this CoCo. How valuable is this guy? And can that value be discussed without looking at the contract he signed last off-season?

I’ll be honest, I’m surprised that Edwin Encarnacion’s “How Valuable” post didn’t top Brandon Phillips’ post for number of comments. Feel free to continue the discussion about those players, but I want to hear what you think about Cordero.

I was not critical of the Cordero signing, and I was pretty pleased with the guy after about half of this season. Now, I’m seriously wavering. If he had pitched like he was being paid, he had some real value to the team. As it turned out, that contract may be an albatross that we will regret for some time.

What do you think?

I know this is a baseball blog, but I just had to ask: what’s wrong with the Bengals? 0-8? Getting crushed by the Texans? Ugly. What do you guys think?

At least the Reds won a game this year! The Bengals may not.

There are a few items I’ve been meaning to link over the last couple of days:

–I agree with Justin; the Reds should extend Jay Bruce. Sign him to a long-term contract now, and you will avoid getting murdered in arbitration in a couple of years (see Howard, Ryan).

–This guy says fantasy baseball owners should stay away from Homer Bailey. In a related story, society says that girls should stay away from fantasy baseball owners.

–Very interesting Reds-related stuff in this post over at Joe Posnanski’s blog; namely, it’s a comparison between Rays SS-turned-CF B.J. Upton, and former Reds SS-turned-CF Eric Davis:

I had not thought of this, but they really do look a lot alike as players — athletic, right-handed, center fielders, great arms, great speed, strike out a lot, good patience, jolting power and so on. I’d say that both even have the look that makes people somehow think they should be even better, even though they’re already pretty darned good.

I think Upton’s remarkable — and I do mean remarkable — sense of the strike zone at such a young age separates him from Davis. He walked 97 times at 23 years old. There have only been 22 players in baseball history who have walked 95 or more times during their age 23 year. The list is loaded with great players including:

Ted Wililams (145)
Frank Thomas (138)
Rickey Henderson (116)
Reggie Jackson (114)
Mickey Mantle (113)
Eddie Mathews (109)
Lou Gehrig (105)
Mel Ott (100)
Tim Raines (97)
Arky Vaughn (97)
Ken Griffey (96)
Yaz (95)

So more than half of the list went on to have, what I consider to be Hall of Fame careers*******. And the rest ain’t too bad either — Eddie Yost (the Walking Man!), Harlond Clift, Troy Glaus, Charlie Keller, Alvin Davis, these are All-Star caliber players, or in the case of Alvin Davis they are one-time All-Stars who once hit me in the foot with a wild throw during batting practice. Alvin apologized and was very nice about it, but it now occurs to me that I missed the one opportunity I will have in my entire life to suddenly let loose with a loud “ALVIN!!!!”

Point is, I think Upton’s patience at the plate is something that could make him a big star in this league for many years. On the other hand, I don’t think Upton or perhaps anyone else is as talented as the young Eric Davis — talking about power and speed talent here I mean, it still blows me away to go back and look at Davis’ first two full seasons — especially because they weren’t all that full:

1986: Davis hit .277 with 27 home runs and, get this, 80 stolen bases. The amazing part — he did it in 132 games and 487 plate appearances. That’s just awe inspiring. If he could have played at that level for a full season, he might have hit 30 homers and stolen 100 bases. And he was just 24 years old and had no idea what he was doing.

1987: Davis hit .293 with 37 homers, 100 RBIs, 120 runs scored and 50 stolen bases (he was caught 6 times). And the crazy thing is he played in even fewer games than he did in 1986. He missed 33 games. He could have hit 40 homers and stolen 70 bases with a full year. It’s insane.

I think Upton is a remarkable talent. I think Upton could end up being a better player than Davis because of that strike zone management. But I don’t think I’ve ever watched anyone with more raw ability than the young Eric Davis.

Indeed.

Okay, time for another community discussion, since yesterday’s look at Brandon Phillips prompted some thoughtful responses from you guys out there in the Nation (and that BP conversation is still ongoing).

Anyway, today’s subject is our intrepid third-baseman, Edwin Encarnacion. Overrated? Underrated? What is his future with the Reds? Let’s hear your projections and opinions.

I will hold off on my opinion for now, other than to say that EE is my favorite Red now. That (clearly) doesn’t mean he’s the best player on the Reds; he’s just my favorite.

Proceed….

We’re going to run a series of these threads during the off-season, starting today with Brandon Phillips. I’d like to get the Nation’s collective wisdom regarding BP. Is Phillips overrated, underrated, or just rated? Which 2Bs are better, and what is his future with the Reds?

Tell us what you think about Phillips.

I’ll have more later, but my quick hit is that I like BP, but he’s clearly overrated. That’s not to say he isn’t good — he is — but he’s not as good as everyone seems to think he is. In that way, he’s kinda like the anti-Dunn. People love him for the things he does well, while ignoring the things he does poorly.

All in all, he’s a fairly valuable guy to have around, but not irreplaceable…as long as he’s being used correctly. And I don’t think anyone would argue that Phillips has been used correctly over the last year or two (he decidedly is not a cleanup hitter).

What do you think?

I’m not sure how I missed it — perhaps it got lost in the glee over my alma mater actually winning a few football games lately — but our buddy Doug over at Redsminorleagues.com has been counting down his list of the Top 40 Prospects in the Reds system. As always, Doug has given a lot of thought to these rankings, and despite a few disagreements, Doug’s work is excellent.

Here are 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, and 31-40. Great stuff.

Go over there to read them all, but I will reveal the top 3: Yonder Alonso, Neftali Soto, and Drew Stubbs. (And there is at least one player who didn’t make the list that I had hoped to see there; I’ll let you guess who).

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds have had 8 straight losing seasons.

Is this bizarro world? Sheesh.

UPDATE: It was even sweeter because the Rays beat the Red Sox. As I read somewhere, Tampa Bay’s roster will be Boston’s roster in 2010, when they are overpriced.

Anyone watching college football today? I’m heading to Charlottesville, VA, to watch the titanic struggle between the Virginia Cavaliers and the UNC Tar Holes.

Some of you may be watching a more exciting college football game today, although I can’t imagine there are any more scintillating matchups than UVa-UNC. Feel free to use this thread to discuss the football, or anything else you want to discuss.

Heck, even discuss tonight’s ALCS Game 6 from Tampa. Should be a very interesting game tonight.