Move #1 is easy – release Corey Patterson and Paul Bako
Move #2 – let hitting coach Brooke Jacoby go and bring back Chris Chambliss
Move #3 – I have to think about. I’m leaning toward firing Baker but I have to ponder who I replace him with. Someone who is stern but communicates well. Someone who is objective and understands that stats have to be part of any decision making process.
1. Initiate Operation Shutdown. Cueto and Volquez have pitched enough for this year, and if any other starters I am counting on for next year are having arm problems, they can sit as well. This also would go for any position player who may have been rushed back to soon from an injury.
2. Bring Dusty in for a talk about the guys with “no’s” next to their name in the lineup card and explain he needs to play those guys the remainder of the year. As much as I would just like to release CP, getting rid of him makes no difference at this point. Making sure the younger guys get AB’s to see if they have a role next year is what counts. Granted, this should have been done September 1, but still…
3. Depending on how he reacts to 1 and 2, seriously consider Dusty’s status with the team. With the caveat that I mostly get to hear them on the radio, see the computer and this point, I do not like how the team plays the game this season in the places where coaching can make some difference (baserunning, defense, patience at the plate). That coupled with the whole CP thing and other strange lineup decisions makes me really question whether Dusty is the guy. That having been said, as someone pointed out above it is not enough just to say fire Dusty, we have to have a replacement in mind. Being from the Cleveland area, I like Joel Skinner, the Indian’s thrid base coach and the AAA manager when their good younger players were coming up through the system, but I can’t say he or anyone else coming to mind is a strong enough canidate to pull the trigger on Dusty right now. That having been said, he gives me grief on 1 and 2, he should be gone.
I am also assuming our week starts now. If I get to be the guy during the offseason and during FA time, that would be much more fun
THE first thing you’re going to do is release Bako and Patterson, whose contracts expire in two weeks? Oh-kay.
Really excellent points GRF. But I wonder if the first few posts aren’t taking Chad’s “first thing to do” a little too literal. I assumed he meant after the season ended, not right now.
But I was thinking almost the exact same thing about Cueto and Voltron after watching yesterday’s game on replay. Put these guys on 80-pitch counts or shut them down the rest of the way.
The fact Cueto threw 115 pitches in 5 innings just over a week from skipping a start is absolutely preposterous. He should have been on a pitch count. They have 74 pitchers in the bullpen. Use them.
1) Fire Dick Pole.
2) Fire Jacoby.
3) Have a good long talk with Dusty. Explain to him that he needs to stop playing certain people. Explain to him the importance of OBP. Explain to him that you don’t construct a lineup by the position the players play, but by the talent they have as hitters. Explain to him that I am the boss, not him, and if I want something done differently on the field, he will abide by my wishes. Explain to him that you can’t manage with your gut, but have to manage with logic and reason, which is often based on numbers. I explain to him that he should let the new pitching coach and batting coach (whoever they are; I have no idea) do their jobs and should stay ouf. If I don’t get the sense that he buys into all that completely, he’s fired. Because if he does buy into all that, I can live with him as a manager. The players like him and respect him.
I’m guessing that there would be a 1% chance that I would be convinced that Dusty buys into all that, so I’m probably going to fire him after the conversation. I don’t know who I hire.
THE first thing you’re going to do is release Bako and Patterson, whose contracts expire in two weeks? Oh-kay.
Really excellent points GRF. But I wonder if the first few posts aren’t taking Chad’s “first thing to do” a little too literal. I assumed he meant after the season ended, not right now
You’re the one making the assumption that the first few posts meant right now. Nothing contained in those posts says that.
3) Have a good long talk with Dusty. Explain to him that he needs to stop playing certain people. Explain to him the importance of OBP. Explain to him that you don’t construct a lineup by the position the players play, but by the talent they have as hitters. Explain to him that I am the boss, not him, and if I want something done differently on the field, he will abide by my wishes. Explain to him that you can’t manage with your gut, but have to manage with logic and reason, which is often based on numbers. I explain to him that he should let the new pitching coach and batting coach (whoever they are; I have no idea) do their jobs and should stay ouf. If I don’t get the sense that he buys into all that completely, he’s fired. Because if he does buy into all that, I can live with him as a manager.
Wouldn’t it be great if you could “sentence” Baker to be manager in Oakland where Billy Beane would very much do what you just describe.
The players like him and respect him.
I agree that they like Dusty but I also feel that the players think he is full of crap a lot of the time.
In the offseason I would see if the Reds could obtain Roy Halliday and/or CC Sabathia. I know CC is a free agent so nothing would be given up in trades.
Arroyo’s stock couldn’t be higher. We could trade Arroyo and some other pieces for a proven bat.
Just some things off the top of my head.
1. Fire Dusty (he’s made so many stupid inexplanable moves this year) and fire Brook Jacoby and have Eric Davis or Barry Larkin be our hitting instructor.
2.Either sign or trade for a right handed hitter with power.
3. Abandon the “win now” philosphy and stick with the youth movement with Hannigan, Votto, B. Phillips, Kepp, EE, Dickerson, Bruce, Stubbs, Castillo, Richar, Rosales, Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Rameriz, Maloney, Bailey, Roenicke, Bray, Burton, Adkins, Affeldt, Herrera, and Owens.
1) Implore Castellini to follow Steinbrenner’s example and admit past mistakes and then correct the mistake by firing current manager (Baker) and rehire the previous manager (Mackanin).
2) Trade most marketable commodity, Brandon Phillips (locked up for 4 more years) for Matt Holiday and then sign him. Reds have plenty of good talent to play 2B here and more on the way.
3) Do not trade ANY of the 4 starters and do not trade the 5th spot candidates (one of Owings, Bailey, Masset, Ramirez, Thompson will emerge next year, just don’t know which). Do not trade Votto, Bruce, Dickerson, Encarnacion. So within those parameter upgrade SS and/or Catcher if possible, otherwise stay with the program.
I really don’t think we need to make a big splash acquiring starting pitchers in the offseason. Sabathia and Halladay would cost us so much, and I feel like our starting pitching should be the least of our worries. If Harang pitches like he’s supposed to, Voltron pitches anything like he did this year, and Cueto improves, then a rotation of Harang-Voltron-Arroyo-Cueto-Owings should actually be an outstanding rotation. I know we hate Arroyo but he’s now 14-10 with the second best ERA on our team, and also has started the most times and pitched the most innings, which are two very valuable things.
I also don’t think we need to touch the bullpen. Cordero is fine (he’s not spectacular but he’s fine). Burton and Bray have been good enough too. It’s a shame we’re losing Affeldt, but we also have solid relief prospects in Roenicke and Herrera.
That being said, here are my ideas (I’m pretending it’s the offseason):
1. Trade a starting pitching prospect such as Thompson, an offensive prospect, and somebody like Keppinger or Dickerson for a quality, starting catcher with a good right-handed bat. I think we need to trade for a catcher because it seems like one of our biggest holes as well as our hole with the worst FA class. In light of the rotation for next year, I’m honestly willing to part with Bailey if that’s what it’ll takes. I want to do whatever we can to end up with a good starting catcher for the first time in years.
2. Go into the free agent market to find a good bat for the outfield, or maybe 1st base (since Votto can move to the outfield). I think this is where the majority of our free money should go to (which I suspect isn’t very much, due to all the raises). I’m thinking Burrell or, best case scenario, Dunn. I wouldn’t have too much pride to negotiate with Dunn. This wouldn’t necessarily be a slugger. A big FA signing for the outfield could also fill our need for a lead-off hitter. This would just depend on what’s out there, but I would shop power hitters as well as lead-off type outfielders. When I talked about and looked at lead-off type outfielders, though, it would have very little to do with them being “fast” and have a lot to do with OBP.
3. Go into spring training with a very serious emphasis on defensive improvement. This would look like making positional changes that help strengthen positions (getting EdE off of third base, for example), as well as bringing in some kind of special assistant to do defensive training and coaching. I also think an annoying, tiresome amount of defensive fundamental drills would help. I would just want to make the team know that we are serious about defense, and see it has a very big part of what it takes to win.
Instead of Halladay, let’s look at some other lower profile players out there that appear interesting such as Hawpe, Markakis, H Ramirez, etc. This team needs to fill the holes with nice OBP/OPS guys that might slip away from their teams for the right price. A nice MiLB catching prospect at the A or AA level might be a nice thing to pick. In fact, looking at filling the holes in the MiLB system would be something the Reds should do. Sort of a way of planting seeds that the draft misses.
Assuming I can get done what I want to in a week during the offseason, and assuming I have decided Baker can be the manager, my list probably looks something like Kevin’s.
1. On 1, we had luck trading with the Indians for Phillips, they are suddenly pitching short, what about talking to them about one of our pitchers for Kelly Shoppach? RH, not bad defensively and probably not in the Indians long term plans. I won’t break the bank for him, but I at least make the call.
Trade Phillips and Weathers for a young, frontline catcher. Get rid of Patterson and Bako. Move Encarnacion to first, Keppinger to third, and Votto to left. Spend some money for a lefthanded starting pitcher who keeps the ball down. Make due with Baker because Castellini is not going to get rid of him until after 09, the second year of his three year contract.
I really dont think enough emphasis is put on the MAJOR mistake the reds made last off season when they hired Dusty Baker. It was readily apparent at the time that Joe Torre WAS NOT going back to the Yankees. If the front office could have held out two more weeks, they would have had both a big name manager and one fans appreciate, who can actually manage. Walt Jocketty didnt have anything to do with that decision, but with the makeup of the Reds this year, Id be suprised if Torre over Baker wouldnt have been worth another 20 wins this season.
Frontline MLB-ready catchers are few and far between. Whoever has them is not likely to part with them. The Reds need to shop for a catcher through other teams’ farm systems at A or AA, and I’m not talking Castillo-types.
Move Phillips to shortstop and make Hairston the second baseman where he played for Baltimore with aplumb. Viola! Real strong up the middle especially if you can find someone to man center field who can hit better than CP. Dickerson? Hopper?
Find a catcher- Carlos Ruiz from the Phillies is available, very good defensively, and is young and had a good year in 2007. He can hit even though he had a rough year this year. The Phillies need starting pitching and you may be able to dump Homer Bailey or Arroyo on them and get Ruiz and a pitching prospect.
Find a stud right handed hitter somewhere in the free agency mix and make sure he can play left field. Pat Burrell? 30 dingers a year and 100 ribis. Works for me. Or better yet, move defensively inept EE out there and find a right handed third baseman with some pop.
In case it isn’t obvious that the bidding prices for free agent pitchers will be high this offseason:
With the Yankees almost certain to miss the playoffs for the first time since 1993, he says the team must go into the free-agent market to repair its starting rotation. CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and A.J. Burnett are their chief targets.
New York figures to have tens of millions of dollars available: Jason Giambi ($21 million), Andy Pettitte ($16 million), Bobby Abreu ($16 million), Mike Mussina ($11 million) and Carl Pavano ($11 million) are all potentially eligible for free agency.
There’s $75 million Yankee dollars free to bid next year (assuming they maintain their current payroll.)
I wonder what the market would be for Bronson Arroyo. That’s certainly something I’d entertain in my “week in Jocketty’s shoes.”
IMHO, Hairston won’t make it a full season witout injury. He’s a utility player at this point in his career who is playing way above what the back of his baseball card says he should be doing.
Burrell = RH Dunn. If you liked Dunn, then Burrell will give you more of the same. If you didn’t like Dunn, then you’d have a similar guy to blame the team’s record on.
Depending on what they do at the other positions, signing a RH LFer could leave the team with only 2 LF hitting starters (Bruce and Votto.)
1,2,and 3) Package either Bailey or Owings with EE and send them both to the Rockies for Holliday, and then use the money we’ve freed up to sign him to an extension. Other teams’ only excuse to balk at Holliday are his home/road splits, and i’m fairly convinced GABP is comparable enough to coors that he’d do just fine.
He’s a stud, and he’s the type of player Cincy fans would love (and he hits .300, which nobody in Cincy has done for a career since Sean Casey.)
Move Kepp to third, and if Gonzalez ain’t healthy enough next year, put Phillips at short and see what Richar’s got.
lots of people agree cutting Patterson and Bako are the first two moves
but I’d be trying to figure out how to replace Dunn’s offense. I just don’t see how. Someone mentioned Burrell and said “same as Dunn”. Not quit.
Burrell is older (31) and has 4 seasons in a row of OPS+ between 120-129
Dunn’s career is 130 and he’s been over 130 two years in a row.
I wouldn’t mind signing Burrell but we’d need another good bat at SS, C and/or CF/RF just to get us back to where we were with Dunn. Burrell’s bad defensively (like a lot of LFers) so we wouldn’t gain there.
There is of course the option of going after Dunn in the off season.
“Id be suprised if Torre over Baker wouldnt have been worth another 20 wins this season.”
TWENTY WINS?!?! hahahaha, ahh-hahahaha. Oh my.
Obviously talent has absolutely nothing to do with winning and losing. Zero.
To get some of these players you folks are talking about, it’s going to cost an Arroyo, Harang, Phillips, Cueto or some of the other prized youngsters. These upper-echelon players are not getting acquired for the Reds’ dregs, castoffs, retreads and failures.
Good Lord. This isn’t fantasy baseball with some pimply stat geek on the other end of the deal.
Furcal is likely out of the Reds price range. The Reds needs to fill each hole with someone with decent OBP to offset all these guys we have that have lousy OBP.
I agree with you, Mr. Redlegs, although I wouldn’t have had to say it like such a jerk. H. Ramirez, Matt Holliday, and C.C. Sabathia probably aren’t coming to Cincinnati. I do think that somebody like Burrell wouldn’t be too unreasonable to get our hands on, though, as a free agent.
We probably won’t come up with a top-flight catcher but I do think we can come up with one that’s an improvement on Bako and even Hanigan through the route or trading off one of our valued starting-pitcher prospects packaged with a couple other young guys like Dickerson (who I think could reasonably be seen as a good prospect to other teams, despite what RLN says).
That being said, here’s my pick for most realistic list:
1. Get out of my hammock.
2. Yawn and stretch.
3. Go to the bank and cash my fat paycheck for being Bob Castellini’s friend.
And probably most helpful/accurate judgment of need (besides mine):
1. fix the defense
2. fix the defense
3. fix the defense
Personally, my dealings with Marvin in Baltimore and Washington were he’s a smug, condescending ass who’s not nearly as smart as he believes.
Good Lord. This isn’t fantasy baseball with some pimply stat geek on the other end of the deal.
I find your comment from another part of the blog interesting when contrasted with your response on this part. You often come off just as smug and condescending as your description of Marvin Lewis. Can you simply disagree or present your opinion with a tad more humility?
Can you simply disagree or present your opinion with a tad more humility?
Uh, no, not when I see comments like Torre is 20 games’ difference in the standings and someone else keeps wanting to package Weathers, who is a free agent after this year, and someone else keeps asking for Hanley Ramirez, who signed a $70 million extension last offseason, or any other assortment of dimwitted summations.
I think every bit of 20 wins. A competent manager never campaigns to have CP signed, and if he has him, sits him on the bench somewhere around mid-april. I think someone figured up the other day the reds difference in win %, and accordingly patterson costs us 5 wins. If harang hadnt been misused in San Diego, he would surely have covered another 5. From there, one can only wager a guess as to how many games would have turned out different had we used the 3 and 4 holes more appropriately all season….
Suppositions. All suppositions. You show us actual, factual game situations where a decision was made in which the quantifiable result was a loss due to the manager’s decisions. Not some voodoo Ifs, Ands and Buts. Real, live facts with game situations . . . not guesswork that someone batting in that place “could” have produced a hit here or a play there that “might” have changed the game. Show us where it actually DID or did NOT happen.
You won’t come anywhere near 20 games. That’s just absurd.
Until the ill-fated San Diego relief appearance, the most pitches Harang had thrown in a game were 114. He had an absolutely horrible start against the Padres three days before the relief appearance and another bad start 10 days earlier against the Marlins.
From the get-go Harang has not pitched like the Harang of old. His groundball/flyball ratio has always been about even; this year it’s at 0.72. He’s given up a ton of flyballs. Leading up to that San Diego relief appearance, he had allowed 91 baserunners in 74.1 innings, along with 10 homers and it was only 11 starts into the season.
Did the relief appearance help matters? Probably not. But he would have thrown 40-50 pitches on the side anyhow. The control problems were showing long before that appearance but most everyone figured Harang would work through the issues like he usually does.
But hey, Dusty ruined Harang, just like he did Wood and Prior, right? Never mind facts and history and what were then/remain now to be telltale signs on Harang in late April and throughout May.
Honestly, will Baker ever manage again after this run in Cincinnati? Whenever I am reminded of him batting Griffey 3rf out of “respect”, it gives me douche chills.
Honestly, will Baker ever manage again after this run in Cincinnati?
That’s a joke, right? The man has a 15-year history that’s pretty damn good, especially with some of those overachieving Giants teams. Look around at some of the people managing today and if you don’t think Baker is an upgrade you’re just fooling yourself.
All right Redlegs, I have to give you Manuel and Wedge because I have seen them close up. Don’t know how we can judge Svern yet, but I would have given you Yost. Hillman has had an awful season by all accounts and I guess the same can be said of Trembley. Washington I think has actually done pretty well in Texas, and geren seemed to be doing ok with the A’s until they retooled. Frankly I think Cooper has done a heck of a job on paper given what he has in Houston. Haven’t seen enough of San Diego to say, and I have no idea how to evaluate a NYY manager given all that goes into that job (payroll, media, front office).
Guess where all that leads me is that i still have troubling believing baker’s performance this year puts him in the top half of managers for this season. Maybe track record wins out, but for subjective reasons I admit I can’t define I have a bad feeling about how this will end.
Totally off topic, but where are you on the Yost firing? Confess I didn’t like his game management, but don’t se how firing him know helps.
A manager isn’t defined by a season, but his body of work over a career. That’s because it’s still about talent.
Look, Wedge is a guy who rankles a lot of people in the clubhouse. The Indians have a good year in 2007 and saves his job. Did Wedge do a worse job than last year? Is he not the same manager?
Did he do a worse job this year with his talent than Baker did with his on the Reds?
So Mr. Red, gives us your perspective on why Baker is a good manager. Please don’t tout the overall record, which is heavily influence by those “overachieving” Giants teams. He is only sporting about a .480 win percentage since that time. I mean does he offer great insights that improve player’s performance? Is he just a wonderful guy that they want to play their hearts out for? I guess I’m looking for some quantification of his greatness.
Everyone seems to be creating too much work for themselves. You only need to do one thing to get things started 1) Fire Dusty Baker and then Patterson will be released and so will Bako. This automatically makes a .500 ball club assuming you bring in an average manager. I say bring up Rick Sweet and/or hire Ned Yost
1. Sign Sabathia Burnett or Sheets (anyone of them is fine)
2. trade Arroyo and Bailey and throw in something to get Matt Holliday.
3. buy a pack of gum…
nah forget it.
lol
3 is to trade for a good 2nd basemen and move phillips to SS
#1. Fire Dusty…go after Yost. (Unless LaRussa would leave St. louis to hang with Jocketty again.)
#2. Don’t wait, rid yourself of Patterson and Weathers now.
#3. Begin the search for the offseason lining u every possible free agent you can think of. all the while playing our young players everywhere on the field. And throw Votto in the OF for a few games. Try EE at 1st and the OF.
Our pitching should be okay, and no pitchers want to come to Cincy. Look for a bat!
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
RN Exclusives!
The Big Board -- In-Depth Reds Organizational Depth Chart (updated 2/23/10)
Salary Chart -- Our chart on the current and future contract status for the Reds roster (updated 2/23/10)
Loading ...
Fire Dusty Baker
Cut Patterson and Bako
Take the rest of the day off
Move #1 is easy – release Corey Patterson and Paul Bako
Move #2 – let hitting coach Brooke Jacoby go and bring back Chris Chambliss
Move #3 – I have to think about. I’m leaning toward firing Baker but I have to ponder who I replace him with. Someone who is stern but communicates well. Someone who is objective and understands that stats have to be part of any decision making process.
I will take a shot subject to later revision:
1. Initiate Operation Shutdown. Cueto and Volquez have pitched enough for this year, and if any other starters I am counting on for next year are having arm problems, they can sit as well. This also would go for any position player who may have been rushed back to soon from an injury.
2. Bring Dusty in for a talk about the guys with “no’s” next to their name in the lineup card and explain he needs to play those guys the remainder of the year. As much as I would just like to release CP, getting rid of him makes no difference at this point. Making sure the younger guys get AB’s to see if they have a role next year is what counts. Granted, this should have been done September 1, but still…
3. Depending on how he reacts to 1 and 2, seriously consider Dusty’s status with the team. With the caveat that I mostly get to hear them on the radio, see the computer and this point, I do not like how the team plays the game this season in the places where coaching can make some difference (baserunning, defense, patience at the plate). That coupled with the whole CP thing and other strange lineup decisions makes me really question whether Dusty is the guy. That having been said, as someone pointed out above it is not enough just to say fire Dusty, we have to have a replacement in mind. Being from the Cleveland area, I like Joel Skinner, the Indian’s thrid base coach and the AAA manager when their good younger players were coming up through the system, but I can’t say he or anyone else coming to mind is a strong enough canidate to pull the trigger on Dusty right now. That having been said, he gives me grief on 1 and 2, he should be gone.
I am also assuming our week starts now. If I get to be the guy during the offseason and during FA time, that would be much more fun
THE first thing you’re going to do is release Bako and Patterson, whose contracts expire in two weeks? Oh-kay.
Really excellent points GRF. But I wonder if the first few posts aren’t taking Chad’s “first thing to do” a little too literal. I assumed he meant after the season ended, not right now.
But I was thinking almost the exact same thing about Cueto and Voltron after watching yesterday’s game on replay. Put these guys on 80-pitch counts or shut them down the rest of the way.
The fact Cueto threw 115 pitches in 5 innings just over a week from skipping a start is absolutely preposterous. He should have been on a pitch count. They have 74 pitchers in the bullpen. Use them.
1. Regret I got myself into this mess.
2. Apologize to Wayne Krivsky for taking his job.
3. Retire.
hahaha
1) Fire Dick Pole.
2) Fire Jacoby.
3) Have a good long talk with Dusty. Explain to him that he needs to stop playing certain people. Explain to him the importance of OBP. Explain to him that you don’t construct a lineup by the position the players play, but by the talent they have as hitters. Explain to him that I am the boss, not him, and if I want something done differently on the field, he will abide by my wishes. Explain to him that you can’t manage with your gut, but have to manage with logic and reason, which is often based on numbers. I explain to him that he should let the new pitching coach and batting coach (whoever they are; I have no idea) do their jobs and should stay ouf. If I don’t get the sense that he buys into all that completely, he’s fired. Because if he does buy into all that, I can live with him as a manager. The players like him and respect him.
I’m guessing that there would be a 1% chance that I would be convinced that Dusty buys into all that, so I’m probably going to fire him after the conversation. I don’t know who I hire.
You can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
THE first thing you’re going to do is release Bako and Patterson, whose contracts expire in two weeks? Oh-kay.
Really excellent points GRF. But I wonder if the first few posts aren’t taking Chad’s “first thing to do” a little too literal. I assumed he meant after the season ended, not right now
You’re the one making the assumption that the first few posts meant right now. Nothing contained in those posts says that.
3) Have a good long talk with Dusty. Explain to him that he needs to stop playing certain people. Explain to him the importance of OBP. Explain to him that you don’t construct a lineup by the position the players play, but by the talent they have as hitters. Explain to him that I am the boss, not him, and if I want something done differently on the field, he will abide by my wishes. Explain to him that you can’t manage with your gut, but have to manage with logic and reason, which is often based on numbers. I explain to him that he should let the new pitching coach and batting coach (whoever they are; I have no idea) do their jobs and should stay ouf. If I don’t get the sense that he buys into all that completely, he’s fired. Because if he does buy into all that, I can live with him as a manager.
Wouldn’t it be great if you could “sentence” Baker to be manager in Oakland where Billy Beane would very much do what you just describe.
The players like him and respect him.
I agree that they like Dusty but I also feel that the players think he is full of crap a lot of the time.
In the offseason I would see if the Reds could obtain Roy Halliday and/or CC Sabathia. I know CC is a free agent so nothing would be given up in trades.
Arroyo’s stock couldn’t be higher. We could trade Arroyo and some other pieces for a proven bat.
Just some things off the top of my head.
They have 74 pitchers in the bullpen. Use them.
70 of them have “no” written beside their name.
1. Fire Dusty (he’s made so many stupid inexplanable moves this year) and fire Brook Jacoby and have Eric Davis or Barry Larkin be our hitting instructor.
2.Either sign or trade for a right handed hitter with power.
3. Abandon the “win now” philosphy and stick with the youth movement with Hannigan, Votto, B. Phillips, Kepp, EE, Dickerson, Bruce, Stubbs, Castillo, Richar, Rosales, Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Rameriz, Maloney, Bailey, Roenicke, Bray, Burton, Adkins, Affeldt, Herrera, and Owens.
1) Implore Castellini to follow Steinbrenner’s example and admit past mistakes and then correct the mistake by firing current manager (Baker) and rehire the previous manager (Mackanin).
2) Trade most marketable commodity, Brandon Phillips (locked up for 4 more years) for Matt Holiday and then sign him. Reds have plenty of good talent to play 2B here and more on the way.
3) Do not trade ANY of the 4 starters and do not trade the 5th spot candidates (one of Owings, Bailey, Masset, Ramirez, Thompson will emerge next year, just don’t know which). Do not trade Votto, Bruce, Dickerson, Encarnacion. So within those parameter upgrade SS and/or Catcher if possible, otherwise stay with the program.
I really don’t think we need to make a big splash acquiring starting pitchers in the offseason. Sabathia and Halladay would cost us so much, and I feel like our starting pitching should be the least of our worries. If Harang pitches like he’s supposed to, Voltron pitches anything like he did this year, and Cueto improves, then a rotation of Harang-Voltron-Arroyo-Cueto-Owings should actually be an outstanding rotation. I know we hate Arroyo but he’s now 14-10 with the second best ERA on our team, and also has started the most times and pitched the most innings, which are two very valuable things.
I also don’t think we need to touch the bullpen. Cordero is fine (he’s not spectacular but he’s fine). Burton and Bray have been good enough too. It’s a shame we’re losing Affeldt, but we also have solid relief prospects in Roenicke and Herrera.
That being said, here are my ideas (I’m pretending it’s the offseason):
1. Trade a starting pitching prospect such as Thompson, an offensive prospect, and somebody like Keppinger or Dickerson for a quality, starting catcher with a good right-handed bat. I think we need to trade for a catcher because it seems like one of our biggest holes as well as our hole with the worst FA class. In light of the rotation for next year, I’m honestly willing to part with Bailey if that’s what it’ll takes. I want to do whatever we can to end up with a good starting catcher for the first time in years.
2. Go into the free agent market to find a good bat for the outfield, or maybe 1st base (since Votto can move to the outfield). I think this is where the majority of our free money should go to (which I suspect isn’t very much, due to all the raises). I’m thinking Burrell or, best case scenario, Dunn. I wouldn’t have too much pride to negotiate with Dunn. This wouldn’t necessarily be a slugger. A big FA signing for the outfield could also fill our need for a lead-off hitter. This would just depend on what’s out there, but I would shop power hitters as well as lead-off type outfielders. When I talked about and looked at lead-off type outfielders, though, it would have very little to do with them being “fast” and have a lot to do with OBP.
3. Go into spring training with a very serious emphasis on defensive improvement. This would look like making positional changes that help strengthen positions (getting EdE off of third base, for example), as well as bringing in some kind of special assistant to do defensive training and coaching. I also think an annoying, tiresome amount of defensive fundamental drills would help. I would just want to make the team know that we are serious about defense, and see it has a very big part of what it takes to win.
Instead of Halladay, let’s look at some other lower profile players out there that appear interesting such as Hawpe, Markakis, H Ramirez, etc. This team needs to fill the holes with nice OBP/OPS guys that might slip away from their teams for the right price. A nice MiLB catching prospect at the A or AA level might be a nice thing to pick. In fact, looking at filling the holes in the MiLB system would be something the Reds should do. Sort of a way of planting seeds that the draft misses.
1. Get out of my hammock.
2. Yawn and stretch.
3. Go to the bank and cash my fat paycheck for being Bob Castellini’s friend.
Assuming I can get done what I want to in a week during the offseason, and assuming I have decided Baker can be the manager, my list probably looks something like Kevin’s.
1. On 1, we had luck trading with the Indians for Phillips, they are suddenly pitching short, what about talking to them about one of our pitchers for Kelly Shoppach? RH, not bad defensively and probably not in the Indians long term plans. I won’t break the bank for him, but I at least make the call.
Trade Phillips and Weathers for a young, frontline catcher. Get rid of Patterson and Bako. Move Encarnacion to first, Keppinger to third, and Votto to left. Spend some money for a lefthanded starting pitcher who keeps the ball down. Make due with Baker because Castellini is not going to get rid of him until after 09, the second year of his three year contract.
I really dont think enough emphasis is put on the MAJOR mistake the reds made last off season when they hired Dusty Baker. It was readily apparent at the time that Joe Torre WAS NOT going back to the Yankees. If the front office could have held out two more weeks, they would have had both a big name manager and one fans appreciate, who can actually manage. Walt Jocketty didnt have anything to do with that decision, but with the makeup of the Reds this year, Id be suprised if Torre over Baker wouldnt have been worth another 20 wins this season.
Isn’t Weathers a free agent at the end of this season?
Frontline MLB-ready catchers are few and far between. Whoever has them is not likely to part with them. The Reds need to shop for a catcher through other teams’ farm systems at A or AA, and I’m not talking Castillo-types.
Yes. Weathers can’t be traded, unless the other team is really, really, really dumb.
Move Phillips to shortstop and make Hairston the second baseman where he played for Baltimore with aplumb. Viola! Real strong up the middle especially if you can find someone to man center field who can hit better than CP. Dickerson? Hopper?
Find a catcher- Carlos Ruiz from the Phillies is available, very good defensively, and is young and had a good year in 2007. He can hit even though he had a rough year this year. The Phillies need starting pitching and you may be able to dump Homer Bailey or Arroyo on them and get Ruiz and a pitching prospect.
Find a stud right handed hitter somewhere in the free agency mix and make sure he can play left field. Pat Burrell? 30 dingers a year and 100 ribis. Works for me. Or better yet, move defensively inept EE out there and find a right handed third baseman with some pop.
In case it isn’t obvious that the bidding prices for free agent pitchers will be high this offseason:
With the Yankees almost certain to miss the playoffs for the first time since 1993, he says the team must go into the free-agent market to repair its starting rotation. CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and A.J. Burnett are their chief targets.
New York figures to have tens of millions of dollars available: Jason Giambi ($21 million), Andy Pettitte ($16 million), Bobby Abreu ($16 million), Mike Mussina ($11 million) and Carl Pavano ($11 million) are all potentially eligible for free agency.
There’s $75 million Yankee dollars free to bid next year (assuming they maintain their current payroll.)
I wonder what the market would be for Bronson Arroyo. That’s certainly something I’d entertain in my “week in Jocketty’s shoes.”
IMHO, Hairston won’t make it a full season witout injury. He’s a utility player at this point in his career who is playing way above what the back of his baseball card says he should be doing.
Burrell = RH Dunn. If you liked Dunn, then Burrell will give you more of the same. If you didn’t like Dunn, then you’d have a similar guy to blame the team’s record on.
Depending on what they do at the other positions, signing a RH LFer could leave the team with only 2 LF hitting starters (Bruce and Votto.)
lower profile players out there that appear interesting such as Hawpe, Markakis, H Ramirez
Hanley Ramirez, the best player in the game not named Albert Pujols, is low profile? Sure, let’s sign him.
1. fix the defense
2. fix the defense
3. fix the defense
1,2,and 3) Package either Bailey or Owings with EE and send them both to the Rockies for Holliday, and then use the money we’ve freed up to sign him to an extension. Other teams’ only excuse to balk at Holliday are his home/road splits, and i’m fairly convinced GABP is comparable enough to coors that he’d do just fine.
He’s a stud, and he’s the type of player Cincy fans would love (and he hits .300, which nobody in Cincy has done for a career since Sean Casey.)
Move Kepp to third, and if Gonzalez ain’t healthy enough next year, put Phillips at short and see what Richar’s got.
Hanley Ramirez, the best player in the game not named Albert Pujols, is low profile? Sure, let’s sign him.
But stuck in Florida, how many casual baseball fans even know he exists. How long has he got until Florida has to deal him somewhere?
He signed a 6 year / $70 M contract last year that’s pretty much highway robbery, so he’s not going anywhere.
lots of people agree cutting Patterson and Bako are the first two moves
but I’d be trying to figure out how to replace Dunn’s offense. I just don’t see how. Someone mentioned Burrell and said “same as Dunn”. Not quit.
Burrell is older (31) and has 4 seasons in a row of OPS+ between 120-129
Dunn’s career is 130 and he’s been over 130 two years in a row.
I wouldn’t mind signing Burrell but we’d need another good bat at SS, C and/or CF/RF just to get us back to where we were with Dunn. Burrell’s bad defensively (like a lot of LFers) so we wouldn’t gain there.
There is of course the option of going after Dunn in the off season.
Milwaukee fires Ned Yost!!!
“Id be suprised if Torre over Baker wouldnt have been worth another 20 wins this season.”
TWENTY WINS?!?! hahahaha, ahh-hahahaha. Oh my.
Obviously talent has absolutely nothing to do with winning and losing. Zero.
To get some of these players you folks are talking about, it’s going to cost an Arroyo, Harang, Phillips, Cueto or some of the other prized youngsters. These upper-echelon players are not getting acquired for the Reds’ dregs, castoffs, retreads and failures.
Good Lord. This isn’t fantasy baseball with some pimply stat geek on the other end of the deal.
P.S. I’d love to sign somebody (anybody!!) who could bat leadoff.
Furcal anybody??
Furcal is likely out of the Reds price range. The Reds needs to fill each hole with someone with decent OBP to offset all these guys we have that have lousy OBP.
Dunn wouldn’t sign again with the Reds for buckets of dollars.
These upper-echelon players are not getting acquired for the Reds’ dregs, castoffs, retreads and failures.
So I guess you don’t think the Phillips and Weathers for a top flight catcher will work?
I agree with you, Mr. Redlegs, although I wouldn’t have had to say it like such a jerk. H. Ramirez, Matt Holliday, and C.C. Sabathia probably aren’t coming to Cincinnati. I do think that somebody like Burrell wouldn’t be too unreasonable to get our hands on, though, as a free agent.
We probably won’t come up with a top-flight catcher but I do think we can come up with one that’s an improvement on Bako and even Hanigan through the route or trading off one of our valued starting-pitcher prospects packaged with a couple other young guys like Dickerson (who I think could reasonably be seen as a good prospect to other teams, despite what RLN says).
That being said, here’s my pick for most realistic list:
1. Get out of my hammock.
2. Yawn and stretch.
3. Go to the bank and cash my fat paycheck for being Bob Castellini’s friend.
And probably most helpful/accurate judgment of need (besides mine):
1. fix the defense
2. fix the defense
3. fix the defense
Personally, my dealings with Marvin in Baltimore and Washington were he’s a smug, condescending ass who’s not nearly as smart as he believes.
Good Lord. This isn’t fantasy baseball with some pimply stat geek on the other end of the deal.
I find your comment from another part of the blog interesting when contrasted with your response on this part. You often come off just as smug and condescending as your description of Marvin Lewis. Can you simply disagree or present your opinion with a tad more humility?
Maybe Mr. Redleg’s name is Marvin and he was talking about himself.
Can you simply disagree or present your opinion with a tad more humility?
Uh, no, not when I see comments like Torre is 20 games’ difference in the standings and someone else keeps wanting to package Weathers, who is a free agent after this year, and someone else keeps asking for Hanley Ramirez, who signed a $70 million extension last offseason, or any other assortment of dimwitted summations.
I think every bit of 20 wins. A competent manager never campaigns to have CP signed, and if he has him, sits him on the bench somewhere around mid-april. I think someone figured up the other day the reds difference in win %, and accordingly patterson costs us 5 wins. If harang hadnt been misused in San Diego, he would surely have covered another 5. From there, one can only wager a guess as to how many games would have turned out different had we used the 3 and 4 holes more appropriately all season….
Suppositions. All suppositions. You show us actual, factual game situations where a decision was made in which the quantifiable result was a loss due to the manager’s decisions. Not some voodoo Ifs, Ands and Buts. Real, live facts with game situations . . . not guesswork that someone batting in that place “could” have produced a hit here or a play there that “might” have changed the game. Show us where it actually DID or did NOT happen.
You won’t come anywhere near 20 games. That’s just absurd.
Until the ill-fated San Diego relief appearance, the most pitches Harang had thrown in a game were 114. He had an absolutely horrible start against the Padres three days before the relief appearance and another bad start 10 days earlier against the Marlins.
From the get-go Harang has not pitched like the Harang of old. His groundball/flyball ratio has always been about even; this year it’s at 0.72. He’s given up a ton of flyballs. Leading up to that San Diego relief appearance, he had allowed 91 baserunners in 74.1 innings, along with 10 homers and it was only 11 starts into the season.
Did the relief appearance help matters? Probably not. But he would have thrown 40-50 pitches on the side anyhow. The control problems were showing long before that appearance but most everyone figured Harang would work through the issues like he usually does.
But hey, Dusty ruined Harang, just like he did Wood and Prior, right? Never mind facts and history and what were then/remain now to be telltale signs on Harang in late April and throughout May.
Honestly, will Baker ever manage again after this run in Cincinnati? Whenever I am reminded of him batting Griffey 3rf out of “respect”, it gives me douche chills.
Why doesn’t Guillen bat Griffey 3rd out of respect instead of the incredibly disrespextful 7th?
Because the White Sox have more middle of the order talent, that’s why.
Honestly, will Baker ever manage again after this run in Cincinnati?
That’s a joke, right? The man has a 15-year history that’s pretty damn good, especially with some of those overachieving Giants teams. Look around at some of the people managing today and if you don’t think Baker is an upgrade you’re just fooling yourself.
Who are these managers who are worse?
Washington, Gonzalez, Hillman, Russell, Black, Riggleman, Trembley, Svem, Melvin, Geren, Girardi, Wedge, Cooper, the two Manuels and so forth.
All right Redlegs, I have to give you Manuel and Wedge because I have seen them close up. Don’t know how we can judge Svern yet, but I would have given you Yost. Hillman has had an awful season by all accounts and I guess the same can be said of Trembley. Washington I think has actually done pretty well in Texas, and geren seemed to be doing ok with the A’s until they retooled. Frankly I think Cooper has done a heck of a job on paper given what he has in Houston. Haven’t seen enough of San Diego to say, and I have no idea how to evaluate a NYY manager given all that goes into that job (payroll, media, front office).
Guess where all that leads me is that i still have troubling believing baker’s performance this year puts him in the top half of managers for this season. Maybe track record wins out, but for subjective reasons I admit I can’t define I have a bad feeling about how this will end.
Totally off topic, but where are you on the Yost firing? Confess I didn’t like his game management, but don’t se how firing him know helps.
know = now (among other typos). Clearly time to stop typing. Good night all.
A manager isn’t defined by a season, but his body of work over a career. That’s because it’s still about talent.
Look, Wedge is a guy who rankles a lot of people in the clubhouse. The Indians have a good year in 2007 and saves his job. Did Wedge do a worse job than last year? Is he not the same manager?
Did he do a worse job this year with his talent than Baker did with his on the Reds?
Fire a manager with two weeks to play? Ridiculous, no matter the circumstances. You do it in late August or early September, not now.
Fire a manager with two weeks to play? Ridiculous, no matter the circumstances. You do it in late August or early September, not now.
I presume you are talking about the Brewers’ decision to fire Yost?
What’s the difference between early September and Sept 15?
1)Tell Dusty that he must: Play Richar at SS, Rosales at 3B, Dickerson at CF and Castillo in a UTL role…the rest of the way.
2) Shutdown Volquez, Cueto and Harang …and let Pettyjohn, Ramirez & Masset handle those starts w/ a pitch count limit of 100.
3) Start trolling other clubs for possible off season trades (C, RHB LF, bullpen replacements).
Everything else can be done/taken care of in the off-season.
So Mr. Red, gives us your perspective on why Baker is a good manager. Please don’t tout the overall record, which is heavily influence by those “overachieving” Giants teams. He is only sporting about a .480 win percentage since that time. I mean does he offer great insights that improve player’s performance? Is he just a wonderful guy that they want to play their hearts out for? I guess I’m looking for some quantification of his greatness.
Everyone seems to be creating too much work for themselves. You only need to do one thing to get things started 1) Fire Dusty Baker and then Patterson will be released and so will Bako. This automatically makes a .500 ball club assuming you bring in an average manager. I say bring up Rick Sweet and/or hire Ned Yost
1. Sign Sabathia Burnett or Sheets (anyone of them is fine)
2. trade Arroyo and Bailey and throw in something to get Matt Holliday.
3. buy a pack of gum…
nah forget it.
lol
3 is to trade for a good 2nd basemen and move phillips to SS
#1. Fire Dusty…go after Yost. (Unless LaRussa would leave St. louis to hang with Jocketty again.)
#2. Don’t wait, rid yourself of Patterson and Weathers now.
#3. Begin the search for the offseason lining u every possible free agent you can think of. all the while playing our young players everywhere on the field. And throw Votto in the OF for a few games. Try EE at 1st and the OF.
Our pitching should be okay, and no pitchers want to come to Cincy. Look for a bat!