Bronson Arroyo doesn’t want to be traded:

Arroyo would like to be part of future with Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey and Co.

“I definitely want to be,” he said. “The last two years we haven’t had anywhere near the pitching staff we have now. Volquez and Cueto have been great. Thompson surprised a lot of people when he came up here. Homer is looking more comfortable and a lot better. I feel like — and everyone around here feels like — things are starting to roll here. I don’t think there’s a reason to panic and ship a lot of guys out of here. Adam (Dunn) is the only guy who is kind of in predicament where he’s going to have to sign long-term deal or they’re going to have to do something with him. Guys like myself and Harang, we’re locked in. If they’re willing to stick with us and pay the salary, we’ve got a good shot at doing things we haven’t done in a while.”

Castellini hasn’t said anything to Arroyo directly.

“But I hear him talking,” Arroyo said. “He’s optimistic. I don’t see him packing it in and taking the money.”

Arroyo is 5-0 with 3.09 ERA in his last five starts. If he keeps pitching like that, I wouldn’t want to see him traded, either.

Meanwhile, GM Walt Jocketty says there will be no salary dump, for what that’s worth.

The question:

Is Arroyo necessary for this team success?

The answer:

IMO, No.

Comment by Y-City Jim — 7/24/2008 @ 8:43 am

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And, if you assume next year he’ll be, at best, the #3 starter, won’t he be overpaid?

Comment by Bill — 7/24/2008 @ 8:53 am

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I haven’t given up on this season yet. We’re a whole lot better off than at the same time last year, and with 5 games left in the season the playoffs weren’t out of reach. I don’t think the NL central is any stronger than last year, and the wildcard is still wide open. One decent string of wins and this entire season could be turned around quick.

Comment by Jared — 7/24/2008 @ 9:00 am

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Good point, Bill. He would be overpaid. We could flip Arroyo for a top catching or CF prospect and use the saved cash to spend on a more reasonably priced replacement. I’m not advocating it, but upgrading those two positions (esp. if we lose Dunn and Griff) is going to force us to give up something of quality very soon. Or would you rather package Affeldt and Stormy and keep Bronson? So many choices. All I know is that I want Griffey gone yesterday. His presence just mucks up the entire batting order and his lack of range is astonishing.

Comment by Sultan of Swaff — 7/24/2008 @ 9:25 am

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And the playoffs are out of the question. Before the season, we all agreed a .500 season would be respectable given the last 7 years, and we’re trending that way. I’ll be satisfied w/ 85 wins and a bunch of experience for the young guys.

Comment by Sultan of Swaff — 7/24/2008 @ 9:28 am

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No salary dump, but they are still operating under a budget. So, the unanswered question is whether Dunn fits into that budget next year, and could it come down to a question of Dunn or Arroyo?

Comment by GregD — 7/24/2008 @ 9:38 am

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Arroyo was a long reliever and spot starter for the Red Sox. I am not sure if on a championship team that would not be his best role.

Of the starters he mentioned Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey and Thompson, I would hope, from a success standpoint, that in two years Arroyo would be the 6th man. In that case he would be a spot starter and long reliever here. $11 million is too much to pay for that.

My vote is trade the rock star to the American League so they “can be together again”.

Comment by Mark in CC — 7/24/2008 @ 9:40 am

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If we flip him it has to be for a SS, Catcher or CF that would be ready to start next year. Even though he would be over paid and going into next year probably a #3 or #4 starter behind Volquez, Harang and maybe Cueto you have to look at will Thompson and Bailey both be ready to pitch everyday in the big leagues. With Fogg being a free agent he should be the one that goes and I would much rather have Arroyo over priced than signing another veteran #5 starter such as Fogg, cause lets face it inless you trade for a top of the line starter a FA one won’t sign in cinci. I think the first moves should be Stormy, Affeldt, Fogg and Griffey who all have expiring contracts I believe.

Comment by Brian — 7/24/2008 @ 9:55 am

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The Sultan is probably right. It’ll take an Arroyo or Phillips to bring the return necessary to fill the desperate holes of this roster.

Comment by Mr. Redlegs — 7/24/2008 @ 10:02 am

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“No salary dump” is additional confirmation that this regime is willing to spend the money neded to compete.

As or trading Arroyo, or anyone else: The only way to assess is a potential trade is when a specific offer is on the table. The Reds need better pitching more than anything.

So, there’s the sticky part: If you trade Arroyo or any other pitcher who is performing well, almost certainly you will not acquire an equivalent performer in return. Therefore, almost always, trading a performing pitcher results in a net loss for a team.

And, of course, when a pitcher isn’t performing well, his trade value approaches zero.

The Reds pitching staff is young and developing. We don’t know who’s going to be in the mix a year or two from now. We don’t know if Harang will return to form. We don’t know if Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Thompson will become seasoned winners or if they’ve already peaked.

Keep the pitchers. Add more pitchers.

FWIW, I’d trade Griffey for pitching prospects. I’d keep Dunn unless some fool wanted to give up a dependable winning starter. (And that’s possible. Lots of fools in the baseball business.)

Comment by justcorbly — 7/24/2008 @ 10:39 am

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Arroyo would like to be part of future with Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey and Co.

I count 1…2…3…4…5 starting pitchers. Yeah, you want depth, and turning things over to Harang and four “kids” would be insane, but if it comes down to a choice between Arroyo or Adam Dunn, that’s pretty easy for me.

/Ignoring whatever we get for Arroyo, the loss of compensation picks for losing Dunn, and the marginal difference in their salaries/

Comment by Chris — 7/24/2008 @ 10:59 am

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Keep the pitchers. Add more pitchers. I like the sound of that. Certainly, it’s easier to shop for position players on the open market than pitchers, so from that standpoint it’s better to hold onto your pitching assets, regardless of whether Arroyo is perceived to be overpaid for his slot in the rotation. If he is a meaningful contributor, he’s probably worth holding onto. I think our best bet is to move Affeldt and Weathers to try and fill one of our positional holes, and then use free agency to fill the others. At the same time, there wouldn’t be an appreciable drop off for this year’s team if you traded or DFA’d some guys. Roenicke for Weathers, Hanigan for Bako/Ross, Dickerson for Patterson.

Comment by Sultan of Swaff — 7/24/2008 @ 11:16 am

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…Coffey for some day-old hotdog buns.

Comment by Chris — 7/24/2008 @ 11:39 am

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Kind of off topic, but shouldn’t the Reds consider trying to offer Hairston an extension? Or have they gone down that road already and been met with negative vibes? Anyone? Oh, and I don’t think the Reds are out of it yet. They play about another 60 games and only 20 or so of them are against teams with a .500 record. Just sayin…

Comment by Josh — 7/24/2008 @ 12:18 pm

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everyone wants to trade dunn, but no teams want to trade for him. oh the irony

Comment by BC — 7/24/2008 @ 12:30 pm

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I mean Griffey, not dunn though the names are somewhat interchangeable

Comment by BC — 7/24/2008 @ 12:31 pm

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I’ll add that, in my opinion, the Reds have only three proven, established career major league pitchers: Harang, Arroyo, Cordero. The first is hurt, the second barely merits the label and is digging out of a very deep hole he dug for himself, and the third has had a spot of bother recently.

The Reds have some young pitchers with great potential on the staff, and one of them is having a fine year. The others are using the Reds for post-graduate work after they matriculated from AAA. Let’s wait a couple of seasons and see how many of them are winning in the double figures before we jump to conclusions.

Comment by justcorbly — 7/24/2008 @ 12:36 pm

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BC-I agree. I love the posts about trading Griffey for pitchers or Arroyo for starters. Good luck with that. The only players that have trade value on the Reds are the ones they aren’t going to trade (Votto, EE, phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Burton).

Comment by AnnapolisRed — 7/24/2008 @ 1:50 pm

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Bottom line if they increase the payroll to $100 million, which I doubt they will, is Arroyo worth over 10% of that. At $80 Million the percentage is even more out of whack. Cnsider in 2 more years what are Jay Bruce and Joey Votto going to cost.

Another Topic:
Has anyone heard the status of siging Yonder Alonzo?

Comment by Mark in CC — 7/24/2008 @ 1:52 pm

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In talking that the playoffs are impossible, just think: if the Reds were in the NL West they’d only be 1 game out of first!

Comment by Dallas — 7/24/2008 @ 1:58 pm

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I don’t think the wild card is an impossibility due to the bleak West and competitive East, but since you seldom know what you get with Arroyo I would still move him. This is still the year he set the MLB record for worst first inning in history. I am only slightly more confident in him than Josh Fogg who has been hot lately too.

Comment by Mark in CC — 7/24/2008 @ 2:02 pm

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According to Baseball Prospectus, a smart and unbiased source, the Reds have a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Let’s just be realistic about where we are. Make moves for 2009 and beyond, not so we can win 79 games this year instead of 76.

Comment by Dan — 7/24/2008 @ 2:59 pm

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Oh, and as for Hairston… he’s having a fantastic year this year and that is great. We’re definitely benefiting from that.

But he’s 32 years old and has a career line of .260/.329/.367.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hairsje02.shtml

He’s had a great 188 AB’s, but he’s got 2700 AB’s telling us what type of player he really is.

At age 32, he’s also probably entering his decline phase.

IMO, any extension for him would be nuts.

Comment by Dan — 7/24/2008 @ 3:02 pm

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Its not that I think Hairston will continue to play this well, I’m just looking at a cheap alternative if Dunn and Griffey are gone next year. You’ll have Bruce and who? Freel? Hopper? At least Hairston’s shown he can be versatile and add some spark to the lineup.

I shudder to think that Patterson will be around another year…

Comment by Josh — 7/24/2008 @ 3:35 pm

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I’d give Hairston an extension but not go overboard with it. Although to be fair to him a few years ago he had a good year then I believe his back problems started. He seems to be as much an injury risk as Freel. If he continues to put up numbers like he has, I don’t see how they can’t try and keep him around. Keep him in the mix and see if he can keep it giong strong.

Comment by Phill — 7/24/2008 @ 4:14 pm

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I would love to have Hairston back at a reasonable price (and there is no reason to think he wouldn’t resign at a reasonable price).

Comment by AnnapolisRed — 7/24/2008 @ 6:01 pm

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Keep Hairston as bench material, spot starter. I would keep Bronson unless you can package him with, say an Affeldt and get top-flight returns. I’m of the opinion that starting pitching is harder to replace than position players. Whatever we do, we need to address the hole behind the plate. I say package Bronson with Affeldt, get a solid catcher and a good right handed reserve corner infielder with a prospect or two, sign a free agent like Rowand and let Griffey walk.

Comment by preach — 7/24/2008 @ 6:08 pm

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Oh, we could never trade Coffey for the day old buns: he would eat them before the deal was signed.

Comment by preach — 7/24/2008 @ 6:10 pm

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Generally speaking, when someone says a guy “adds spark to a lineup,” it means he’s a terrible player.

That’s basically what Hairston has been over his career - no reason to think 80-some odd games should change that.

Comment by Andrew — 7/24/2008 @ 6:12 pm

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Pack up all the guys that we don’t want and nobody else wants, and trade them for good hitters that are outstanding defensively, and for great pitchers. Right. Can I have some of the drugs you guys are taking?

Comment by Shane — 7/24/2008 @ 6:41 pm

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haha, that’s a good point. But I still think the price might be high for someone like Arroyo, especially as the starting pitcher market dwindles. I also think it’s a very good point that his percentage of the budget is actually really inappropriate.

That being said, if he continues to pitch like he is, he’ll end up putting together a pretty good season, also having put together a comparably above average season in 2006. The fact is we can’t count on Bailey or Thompson panning out next year, and it means a lot to me that the guy wants to stay in Cincinnati. I’d take him over Kyle Lohse any day just on merit of the fact that he likes our city, our team, and our players, as opposed to Lohse who always made it clear he was ready to leave.

Comment by Kevin — 7/24/2008 @ 9:11 pm

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not trying to get off topic but did anyone else hear about the brawl between the dragon and the cubs minor league team? There’s an article up on espn about it.

Comment by chris — 7/25/2008 @ 2:33 am

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