Game Thread: Padres at Reds — 2008.07.23
Afternoon delight today, with Bronson Arroyo pitching against Greg Maddux. Yeah, the good guys blew game one of the series, but they can still win two out of three with a victory in today’s get-away game.
Discuss it here, if you are trying to avoid actually working today….
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:38 am
Another interesting Cincinnati Reds line-up:
Jay Bruce cf
Jeff Keppinger ss
Ken Griffey Jr. rf
Brandon Phillips 2b
Adam Dunn lf
Edwin Encarnacion 3b
Javy Valentin c
Joey Votto 1b
Bronson Arroyo p
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:41 am
That’s right, Reds fans. Javier Valentin is the starting catcher for the sixth time this year, and Joey Votto is batting 8th. Commence with head scratching.
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:44 am
Had to be Dunn:
Someone left Fogg a black t-shirt with “Sorry . . . about your face” on it.
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:45 am
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/07/22/bp.nlsecondhalf/index.html?bcnn=yes
Apparently Volquez isn’t a very good pitcher (2/3 down - “Avert your eyes”). Commence with head scratching (as there is no explanation).
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
That article has no merit to it whatsoever.
“Player to watch: Rickie Weeks, Brewers”
|Enough said. BS.
Votto batting 8th? WTF? Punishment for hurting Fogg?
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Trade rumors that Yankees have interest in Arroyo and Dunn. Imagine what we could get if we sent both of them. (I personally want Dunn resigned and am going back and forth with trading Arroyo, but packaging them could get us a lot of stuff).
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Also…that article could at least explain why it says “Avert your eyes” for Edinson Volquez…I might actually believe that he’s going to continue downhill as the heat rises. This is something we all talked about because he pitched so much in winter ball. But the guy has to explain himself, especially since MLB.com picked Volquez as their prediction for the Cy Young award a week ago.
Also….Cardinals, Brewers, Marlins, and Phillies all fade and Braves take the wildcard is his prediction. hahahaha
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Reds interested in Huston Street?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Another interesting note.
Free Agent Compensation
By Tim Dierkes [July 23 at 10:30am CST]
Here’s a reminder of how free agent compensation works in baseball, with Adam Dunn as the example.
The Reds have the choice of offering Dunn arbitration after the season. If Dunn accepts, the Reds get him for ‘09 at a salary determined by the arbitration process. He’s earning $13MM in ‘08 and having a typical year, so the process would result in an even higher salary for ‘09. (Occasionally a player accepts arbitration when the team didn’t expect him to, like Greg Maddux and the Braves in ‘02.) If the Reds don’t offer Dunn arbitration, he becomes a free agent and the Reds get nothing.
A player can either be classified as Type A, Type B, or nothing based on his stats from the previous two seasons. Dunn should rank as a Type A since the classification formula looks at PA, AVG, OBP, HR, and RBI for 1Bs, OFs, and DHs (4 out of 5 ain’t bad for Dunn).
If the Reds offer Dunn arbitration, he may decline because he prefers to play elsewhere or prefers to seek a multiyear free agent contract. If he declines the Reds’ offer and signs elsewhere, the Reds will receive two draft picks.
Let’s say the Yankees sign Dunn. The Reds will then receive one ‘09 draft pick from the Yankees. If the Yankees have, say, the 22nd overall pick next June, the Reds get that in addition to their own normal first round pick. The Reds also get a supplemental draft pick squeezed in between the first and second round of the draft.
The Reds only get the Yankees’ first-round pick if it falls between #16-30. The first 15 picks are protected. So if the Nationals sign Dunn, the Reds are kind of screwed because they do not get the Nats’ #2 overall pick. Instead, they get the Nats’ second round pick and the supplemental pick.
A free agent can also be classified as a Type B based on his stats from 2007-08. This might happen with Jon Garland. Say the Angels offer him arbitration and he declines and then signs with the Dodgers. The Dodgers would not give up any draft picks, but the Angels would get an extra pick between the first and second round.
Third possibility - the free agent is not classified as Type A or B, and there is no draft pick compensation.
Over the years, many quality players have been drafted as the result of free agent compensation. Recent examples include Conor Jackson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Glen Perkins, Huston Street, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joba Chamberlain, Colby Rasmus, and Ian Kennedy.
I owe most of my understanding of free agent compensation to ESPN’s Keith Law. Check out his blog post on the topic from ‘06 as well as an MLBTR post about the ranking formulas based on info provided by Keith.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Kevin, do the Yankees have much in the way of prospects? They have been pretty weak in that area in recent years. Send them Arroyo and Junior instead.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Perhaps with Posada’s potential for season-ending surgery, the Yankees are inquiring about Valentin, and that (along with other teams who may be interested) is why he’s gotten playing time the last two days. Gotta figure at least 1 of the FA catchers are going to be moved by July 31.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:38 pm
That’s what I wondered, Greg. If a catcher goes then Valentin has to finally catch, here or there.
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
With the prognosis for recovery being 4 to 6 weeks, would the Reds actually have Freel play in September?
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Javy goes JACK CITY!!!
Dusty is brilliant!!!
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Valentin goes deep. Game is tied up.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Considering what the Phillies gave for Blanton (2 top ten prospects), you gotta entertain any and all offers for Arroyo, who I consider to be more valuable. If Homer can be league average or better and Thompson can contribute in a meaningful way next year, all you have to do is sign an insurance 5th starter. You would free up a lot of money to spend on filling holes. Either way, you’re left with depth and financial flexibility.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Reds lead 4-3. Homer by EE.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:12 pm
EE!
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Da bomb!
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Arroyo with a single in the 8th. I guess we need to find someway to avoid having Cordero in a save situation.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Junior just missed a homer. Went for a double. Thom just said that Junior is now tied for the team lead in doubles with 20.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Griffey’s double gives the Reds a tiny bit of breathing room…
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Arroyo’s average on the season is now .189. That’s good enough to start in CF!
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
GRAND SALAMI!
Dang, I wish I could watch this one.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Dunn!
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Grand Slam Dunn!
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
DUNN!!!!!! Man, I wish I didn’t share my office. That would make my jumping up and down, screaming, and fist pumping more socially appropriate…
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Step away for a minute and miss a grand slam…..
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
So does this mean people won’t call in and complain and say how we need to trade him?
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
holy moly
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Nah Jack, people will be complainin’ he didn’t hit a 5 run homer…
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Another meaningless home run from Dunn?
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:55 pm
I think Cordero should pitch the 9th with a five-run lead. Build some confidence without the pressure.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Nope it’s Coffey, but perhaps the same thinking.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
I don’t think a hit that turns your 1-run lead in to a 5-run lead is meaningless.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:01 pm
oh my gosh todd coffey’s pitching! hahaha
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:02 pm
And now the tying run in in the hole. It’s a save situation now, isn’t it?
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:03 pm
And now the tying run in on deck. Coffey. Grrrr.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Cordero in for the (hopefully) last out.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:07 pm
here comes Cordero…………..uh oh
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Walked in a run. Tying run at the plate. Unbelieveable.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Cordero walks a run in, what’s wrong with him? Dusty uses Coffey in an appropriate (as appropriate as can be in the Majors) and Cordero comes in and walks a run in. Does this team want to win?
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:12 pm
It wasn’t pretty at the end, but it still counts.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Cordero gets the save.
Regroup, sweep the Rockies.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:13 pm
jeesh, a win agains the 2nd worst team in majors goes down to the last out with a 5 run lead. unreal. Whew
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:25 pm
They should’ve DFA’d Todd Coffey a LONG time ago.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
If you take out Arroyo’s stinkers against the Blue Jays (10 ER/1 IP) and Braves (7 ER/1.1 IP), his season era is a pretty solid 4.36. I know you can’t just “take away” those two games. They really should trade him if they can however. Clear up that salary.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
And what a season EdE is having. That is one solid bright spot. It’s unfortunate he was almost impossibly bad in May (OPS about .450), because every other month, he’s been above .900.
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
people will be complainin’ he didn’t hit a 5 run homer
Well. He didn’t.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Anyone think the Reds can go 40-19 and win 90 games? That might put them right there in the playoff hunt. I think it is going to be awfully hard but not impossible. Harang has to come back strong (looking unlikely) and Cordero needs to be the lights-out closer he is being paid to be (looking unlikely). So, yeah…
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:25 pm
40-19
hahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahaha
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
40-19? No way.
But 35-24 is not unrealistic, even if they do a bit of a firesale. Shoot, darn near ANY MLB team can post 2 relatively hot months to put together a decent record like that.
The problem NOW has become that it doesn’t look like 85 wins is going to be good enough to pull of the wild card - which at the beginning of the season most us probably though WOULD actually do the trick.
IMO, it IS going to take 40-19 the rest of the way to have a realistic shot.
And, um, unfortunately that’s NOT realistic.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Oh yeah, and Dunn sucks. He couldn’t hit a 5-run shot.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
This would have been a good day to call in sick and watch the REDs play.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
I walked into the eye doctor just before Edwin hit his blast and then missed the rest of the game while in there for an eye exam. That was one quick game by today’s standards.
On the Hutson Street rumor, we aren’t going to trade Dunn for a reliever are we? Come on! We been down this road before. I know the Dunn value is increasing but unless Edwin is going to fill the offensive void this team cannot afford to let the Big Donkey go.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
IMO, it IS going to take 40-19 the rest of the way to have a realistic shot.
And, um, unfortunately that’s NOT realistic.
What was that run by Sparky and the BRM that one year? 43-7 or something like that? I know this team is a far cry from the BRM and Dusty ain’t no Sparky Anderson.
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Yeah, wasn’t the 1970 team something like 70-30 in the first 100 games and then played about .500 the rest of the way while coasting to the division title?
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Honestly, Y-City, I listened to Marty and Thom ridiculing the idea of the Dunn for Street rumor, and I couldn’t help but feel the same.
I wish they’d just lock up Dunn and end the suspense. I can live with the streakiness, the strikeouts, and the poor D for what we get in return - LOTS of difficult to replace offense.
Everything from simply getting on base with a high degree of regularity to a game-changing blast.
He’s simply the only guy on the team anymore that we can rely on to do both. Junior only has those moments IRregularly now.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:38 pm
and I think a guy like Dunn is good for the clubhouse. Yes, there needs to be someone who calls people on the carpet but you also need someone like Dunn who is going to set a bag of poop on fire outside Dusty’s door.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:42 pm
he set patterson on on fire outside Dusty’s door?
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Now that’s funny!
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Bring back Pete Mackanin and we´ll go 40-19. Maybe we can get him from the Yankees for Arroyo.
Also, Patterson and Baker make me pretty mad, but if the front office lets Dunn walk at the end of the year, it will absolutely top all things that have frustrated me in the 4 seasons since I started watching again.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:22 pm
would it really be so bad if dunn accepted arbitration and the reds had him for 1 year at market rate?
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Shane - That’s a classic!
Kurt - Not if Bobby Castelini is serious about winning ASAP.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Hilarious, Shane!