Loading ...John Fay made an off-hand comment about former #1 draft choice Drew Stubbs that got me wondering what you guys thought:
(By the way, Drew Stubbs, the eighth pick overall in the 2006 draft, is hitting .267 in Single-A at age 23).
Is this guy ever going to pan out? I confess that I’ve always been skeptical about Stubbs, but he has shown some flashes of brilliance. He’s .263/.367/.410 on the year. That’s a decent OBP, especially with the poor batting average, and he’s reputed to be pretty good in the field, but he’s a below-average hitter in a league where he is older than most legitimate prospects.
At some point, you’d think Stubbs would have to take a big step forward, and it just hasn’t happened. There’s no question in my mind that he has all the tools…will he ever be a good major leaguer?
I don’t think he’ll be that good. In fact I’m not sure if he ever really sees the MLB for an extended amount of time.
And to think, we could have had Tim Lincecum in that draft lol (though overall, that was a very weak draft)
Isnt stubbs supposed to have decent speed? Lets just move him straight to the majors bat him leadoff and call him CPjr.
I think he will be fine.
He has raised his walk rate, lowered his strikeout rate and doubled his line drive rate. If he keeps up those numbers, he will be fine. Right now, he is doing the right things but the stat line isn’t exactly showing his improvements. It will though.
As for his age/level…. Ryan Braun hit .273/.342/.436 at age 22 in the FSL. Sure, Stubbs is a year older, but lets not underestimate the effect that league can have on a player. Stubbs is doing the right things to be a good player (walking a lot, striking out less and hitting the ball hard as seen by his line drive rates).
I can’t believe you brought up Braun, Doug.
Braun put up those FSL numbers in his first full year w/ a wood bat, got promoted at midseason anyway, and raked AA pitching in the second half (.303 .367 .589).
By the time he was Stubbs’ age, Bruan was pulverizing AAA (.342 .418 .701), and was three months away from winning the ROY with 34 HR and an 1000+ OPS.
To answer Chad: No, I don’t think Stubbs will ever amount to anything. Perhaps a Corey Patterson type – fast, good glove, and overmatched at the plate.
Stubbs is in Sarasota and the FSL, an offense-depressing environment if there ever was one. If he doesn’t take off next year in AA, though, he’s going to look a little more like Chris Dickerson than I’d like for a 1st-rounder.
I do like the walk-rate, though – that’s definitely a hopeful sign that the power is still on its way.
Chris,
I fail to see your point. Braun had hit with a wooden bat for half a year the season before, but goes to the FSL, holds his own, then goes on and destroys the baseball and its expected. However if Stubbs puts up better numbers across the board at a year older in the same level, its something insane to suggest that Drew Stubbs statline is being affected by his environment?
Here is what I know, Drew Stubbs is so much better of a player this year than he was last year its beyond ridiculous. The guy is healthy for the first time since he put on a Reds uniform of any kind and he is improving his game dramatically. I think people tend to forget how raw Stubbs bat was when he was drafted. There was a lot of work to be done and well, we are starting to see that work paying off big time for Stubbs when we look past the stats and look at the rates in which he is doing things.
Give me a guy who walks 14% of the time, strikes out 22% of the time and hits a line drive 26% of the time and I will show you a guy who is doing his job just fine. That is what Drew Stubbs is doing right now. If he continues with those numbers, he will be a fine ballplayer.
Also Chris, its not just a Ryan Braun thing…. he was just the example that I had on the top of my head. Its a list of a thousand guys who hit a ton better once they left the FSL.
For what its worth, Stubbs could easily be promoted tomorrow and spend the second half in AA. The AA all star game hasn’t taken place yet and once it does I expect we will see some movement, including Stubbs to AA.
Stubbs is a talented athlete, but I’m in the “believe it when I see it” against better talent camp.
A-ball seems pretty low to me for a college 2006 1st round draftee, especially when 8 other Reds draftees from the same year (rounds 2-32) are currently in AA or AAA.
I understand he’s had an injury history, but IMO that adds to the pessimism that he’ll be able to continue to climb the rung and contribute when he gets to the top.
I looked him up on milb.com. Two things. First, doing a search of his name, and no team is listed next to his name. (search Bailey, and Louisville is listed next to his name.)
Second, his overall numbers seem to be heavily weighted by his great start in April and a recent hot streak, but terrible avg and no power in May or June:
Apr (obp/slg) 418/526
May 330/281
Jun 343/321
Jul 400/760 (just 25 at-bats)
2008 367/410
Stubbs is progressing nicely. I expect him to be promoted anytime now.
Doug take a deep breath.
With your number one pick, especially a guy who played in a top notch D-1 NCAA program, you shouldn’t even need to be having these discussions. It doesn’t mean they will be a big league star but this type pick, should dominate Rookie, low A and high A. Stubbs has not done that on any level. Vakaika, Francisco and Turner are the class of his draft class.
Great he hits line drive outs, has cut down on his strike outs and walks alot. But this is the way you talk about your tenth pick not the first.
I hope your right but bottom line, to this point Stubbs is a major disappointment.
Greg,
His May/June looked bad on the surface, but when you look deeper they were actually just fine. He walked 16.3% of the time he stepped to the plate and struck out 22% of the time he steppd to the plate while hitting a line drive 23% of the time he put it in play. Do that over a full season and you will see results. Do it over a small sample and you won’t always. Thats what happened in May/June for Stubbs. Really, he had a .281 BABIP with a 24% line drive rate… that line drive rate would suggest a BABIP of .360, so the guy was pretty unlucky. BABIP is generally LD% + .120, so .240 (line drive rate) + .120 = .360 suggested BABIP.
Mark,
Firstly, I don’t care really about his draft spot or not…. thats not really the topic at hand at all. Secondly, Texas has a list a mile long of guys who killed the ball in college and couldn’t hit better than me in the majors so the fact that he came from a big school means nothing because his school hasn’t shown to produce hitters at all at the major league level.
As far as his production to this point…. its not really relevant to the question at hand really. The question is, Is he going to pan out. What he is doing right now suggest he will. Projection isn’t about what stats you are putting up now, its about what you will put up in the future and walk rate/strikeout rate/line drive rate tell me a whole lot more about a hitters future than his batting average ever could.
I’ve seen him play a few times. The dude can flat out run and flat out go get it in CF. Now before you say, “That sounds a lot like CPattereson”, I do think he’ll be a better hitter than CP as shown by the numbers Doug cites.
You have to remember, CF is an offensive weak spot for a lot of teams. A gold glove defensive talent plus major league average bat equals a pretty good CF. On a good team, he can be asset, and if the Reds can bookend him with Bruce and Dunn (or someone like Dunn), that’s a good outfield.
And sure, maybe he is a disappointment for a first-round pick, but that really is not the point of the discussion. Really, when you look at the history of the MLB draft, if you get a solid starting everyday player out your first rounder, that’s pretty good.
As far as I know, weren’t Drew Stubbs and Devin Mesoraco the two 1st round draft picks that Wayne Krivsky was with us for? Neither are panning out really. As far as I know both are hitting below .270 on their respective teams.
But what makes him disappointing is his draft position. It is about resources and dollars spent. You wouldn’t pay an average big leaguer superstar money as a free agent. But superstar money is what you pay your first round draft pick.
No doubt it is a crap shoot. But if he becomes an average big leaguer, although that ain’t bad it would still be a disappointment.
You have to think maybe the money could have been better spent.
FDB,
Lets really not look at someones batting average and let that determine their ability or future ability as a ballplayer. Its a terrible way to project a player. Between the two players they have a combined 3 full seasons under their belt and you are already talking about how they haven’t panned out.
Mark,
Disappointing, right or wrong in your usage of that word still has absolutely nothing to do with the question at hand. Superstar money isn’t close to what you pay a first round draft pick. We are paying Corey Patterson what we paid for both Mesoraco and Stubbs combined.
As for a crapshoot… yeah, if a first rounder turns into an every day player you did a good job. The amount of first rounders that don’t ever turn into anything is about 50%.
As for the money being better spent, we are talking about 2 million bucks on Stubbs. That is chump change.
I think Doug’s last name is Stubbs
Its not. No, I am also not from Texas nor a Longhorns fan.
Rumor has it Stubbs was promoted to AA after tonights game.
How timely! I hope he destroys the Southern League just like Votto did after he got out of Florida.