I keep hearing rumors that Bronson Arroyo is about to be traded to Philly for Shane Victorino. Now, I don’t have any strong opposition to trading Arroyo, but Victorino? He just isn’t very good. Don’t the Reds have enough below-average players already?

He’s fast, though! And we know that Dusty Baker loves fast guys!

In the end, however, I can’t see how this trade ever gets made. Makes no sense.

I would be just as happy if it were just for good prospects.

Comment by Y-City Jim — 7/5/2008 @ 9:55 am

---

Now Shane Victorino AND Ryan Howard, and we’ve got a deal.

Comment by John of Muncie — 7/5/2008 @ 9:59 am

---

We’re not going to get much from Arroyo in the first place but I see no reason why the Phillies would trade Victorino. He’s not a terrible player, he has a decent OBP, low strikeouts and good success at stealing bases, but his slugging % is really bad and he doesn’t walk.

Regardless, I don’t think there is much to this at all. We might trade Arroyo to the Phillies, but we’re not going to get Victorino back. Like I said, we’re not going to get much for Arroyo regardless.

Comment by Matt Steele — 7/5/2008 @ 10:06 am

---

I wouldn’t mind Victorino at all. He is very good defensively as well. Arroyo would be a disaster in Philadelphia. IMO that ballpark is more of a launching pad than GABP.

Comment by AnnapolisRed — 7/5/2008 @ 11:21 am

---

From Paul Daughtery’s blog:

If anybody thought the Reds were just fine keeping Junior and Dunn for yet another glorious go-round in ‘09, the just-done series with Pittsburgh had to change that, didn’t it? It’s not about those 2 gentlemen, personally, It’s about the failed philosophy and era they represent. Lots of home runs might be exciting. They’re not all that important to winning. The Reds absolute over-reliance on the longball has kept them in our misery for 8 years. They don’t do anything else especially well, and havent since GABP opened. They need speed, they need defense, they need energy. Junior and Dunn don’t provide any of that…

NL scout tells Dayton’s Hal McCoy Reds don’t have much pep. Imagine that…

Comment by AnnapolisRed — 7/5/2008 @ 11:27 am

---

More Daughtery:

From 2003 to last year, here’s how the Reds ranked in homers in the 16-team NL: sixth, sixth, first, second and third. And that’s with Griffey hurt half the time. Here’s where they ranked in wins: 13th, 10th, 13th, seventh and, drum roll, please, 13th.

This year, Cincinnati is fifth in home runs and 12th in wins.

There could be a pattern.

Here are a few more stats:

In 2003, the Reds ranked sixth in the NL in homers and 13th in runs. They lost 96 games. In 2006, the Reds hit one more home run than Philadelphia - and scored 116 fewer runs. The following year, they hit 33 more longballs than Colorado and scored 77 fewer times.

Too often, the Reds couldn’t buy a two-out, two-strike hit if it were on sale at Wal-Mart. When hitting home runs is all you do well, you don’t win when you’re not hitting them. This year, the Reds are 5-22 in games in which they’re homer-less.

Bowden suggests moving back the GASP walls would be a good investment, an idea Reds CEO Bob Castellini has heard and rejected. “It’s worth it, in my opinion,” Bowden said. “Little flyballs go out here. Players tend to change their swings a little, not on purpose, then they have to adjust again when they go on the road.”

We’ve praised the offense over the years, mainly because we’ve seen the big names, if not the big picture. Junior! Dunn! The Reds are like the Bengals that way. Big names - Chad! Carson! T.J.! - hide the cracks in the foundation.

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has a few advantages: a roster loaded with free agents who should rent by the hour, a track record suggesting he knows what he’s doing and a pair of working eyeballs.

Jocketty will remake the roster to look more like a contender and less like a killer lineup at Rumpke Park. Line drives would be good, first to third on base hits up the middle, the chance to beat teams without having to clobber them into submission.

Comment by AnnapolisRed — 7/5/2008 @ 11:33 am

---

I have no interest in Victorino at all, but he’s an upgrade from Corey Patterson and if we’re moving Junior it makes a little sense…but I agree with the OSN blog that the Phillie’s are going to have to overpay, and I really like the looks of the catching prospect they mentioned, Lou Marson. I forgot that catching prospects exist, we haven’t had one in years.

Comment by Kevin — 7/5/2008 @ 11:35 am

---

Why aren’t we talking about the David Ross rumor? These seems way more substantial to me, and I can’t find anywhere that mentions who we’d get in return. As much as a good package for Arroyo is worth it to me, I’ve been booing David Ross every time he came to the plate for 2 seasons.

Comment by Kevin — 7/5/2008 @ 11:36 am

---

well victorino isnt a star
but he is an upgrade from he who we shall not speak of.
and i would be happy to get him for arroyo
in my oppinion he is way more than arroyo is worth

Comment by Relient k Car — 7/5/2008 @ 11:52 am

---

The past two full years Victorino has played he has an OPS+ of 91 and 94. He’d be a slight upgrade from the Reds’ other CF options but he wouldn’t exactly fit well with how every body wants the centerfielder to leadoff. He isn’t a leadoff hitter. Looking at his stats I’d say I’d love to see Victorino out there instead of most of the other options but then I look and think he’s got Rollins in front of him and Chase Utley behind him. That’s a hell of a lot of protection in the lineup for him. He wouldn’t have that kind of protection in Cinti.

Comment by Phill — 7/5/2008 @ 12:10 pm

---

Once Arroyo is gone are you going to try and run Josh Fogg out there every fifth day?? As mentioned this trade doesn’t seem to make much sense from the Reds perspective.

Comment by Kerm — 7/5/2008 @ 12:24 pm

---

well dusty commented that thompson is close
and in my oppinion he should have stayed up. when arroyo has one bad start the reds keep him. even when arroyo has 20 bad starts we still keep him.
this team makes me sick

Comment by Relient k Car — 7/5/2008 @ 1:22 pm

---

The Reds are paying Arroyo an order of magnitude more than they are paying Thompson. That makes a difference. if you send Arroyo to Louisville, it costs you hundreds of thousands of dollars every day he pitches there.

Daughtery makes sense. The Reds have been losers for most of the last ten years because they have been a bad and incomplete ball club. Perhaps the new management has been pondering all that and trying to figure out which way to go. Prior management — all of them — seemd to have no clear direction in mind for the team, merely trying to grab the odd beg name player, as if that alone would produce a winner.

Comment by justcorbly — 7/5/2008 @ 1:44 pm

---

Doesn’t sound like there is any merit to this deal according to John Fay’s Blog. However, I think we may be turning our noses up at this trade proposal a little too quick. Victorino is offensively an avreage ML CF, with an OBP about ten points above the MLB average. There’s nothing wrong with that given that he can at least provide average defense in CF, which I’m not sure about.

Name BA OBP SLG OPS
MLB CF 08 .265 .330 .412 .743
Victorino 08 .265 .338 .367 .705
Victorino MLB .275 .340 .404 .744
Victorino MiLB .283 .343 .416 .759

Now consider that Arroyo has steadily regressed since his good first year in Cincy for which he was rewarded with a contract that will pay him 9.5M in 09 and 11M in 10. He will most likely be a middle of the rotation starter at best for that salary the next few years.

I’d say getting a solid everyday player and possibly a prospect in return for dumping that salary would be wonderful.

Comment by Tom — 7/5/2008 @ 1:46 pm

---

Victorino is an average offensive talent for a CF and a very good fielder. He’d look great in a Cincy uni.

Comment by NickP — 7/5/2008 @ 2:04 pm

---

just think we’ll have a real switch hitter too
instead of valentin who thinks he is a switch hitter… or thinks he is flat out a hitter

Comment by Relient k Car — 7/5/2008 @ 2:50 pm

---

Daughtery is not my favorite sportswriter nor do I agree with him most of the time.

There is no correlation to homeruns and winning games. You can find just as many examples of teams that win the world series that hit a ton of homeruns vs teams that hit no homeruns at all.

I understand his overall point, that this team isn’t complete, however he does not back it up very well. A better point would be to look at BARISP or Team OBP or really our pitching staff which has been the main reason why we haven’t been able to win.

From 2003 to last year here is our rank in runs scored

13
10
1
9
7

Now for runs allowed

15th
15th
16th
7th
15th

Our biggest problem is not our offense. It has been pitching for the longest time. We now have some young pitching and despite the frustrations (growing pains?) we have this year… we are very well set to be a contender next year, especially if we bring back Dunn.

We need a leadoff hitter with a good OBP and a much better bullpen and all of our young players to get some experience.

Besides, they act like this team was set up for homeruns. It’s more of a reflection of our stadium. From 2003-2007 we actually hit fewer fly balls than the average NL team, but since we play at a small park, more of them went out lol. (Ok so my last argument might be a bit of a stretch lol)

Comment by Matt Steele — 7/5/2008 @ 3:33 pm

---

With the current pitching staff and last year’s batting the Reds would be in the playoff’s. They need people with spark and high baseball IQ, Johhny Cueto and Volquez are examples as well as BP, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. They have good baseball instincts and can do many things above average or great. How is Victorino any better than Hopper or Freel other than he switch hits? His stats are similar to them so unless he’s a great clutch hitter we’ll be in the same boat except maybe he won’t get hurt as much.
You can never have too many prospects and the Reds do have one good thing…a farm system with good coaching. Keep stocking it and grow your own, they don’t have the $$$ to be doing anything but that. Check out the Rays and Marlins to see what they’ve done. Oh, and a manager(s) with higher IQ’s in the majors wouldn’t hurt that’s for sure as we could name at least 7-8 games that could have been won by not bringing in a mop-up reliever for a close game; and then there’s Crappy Baker’son…duhhhh .188 BA “He’s the fastest…” Busty says. Never mind he can’t get on base.

Comment by mhopp — 7/5/2008 @ 5:45 pm

---

Guys that are untouchable: Votto, Phillips, EE, Volquez, Cueto, Burton. Everybody else should be available.

Comment by AnnapolisRed — 7/5/2008 @ 6:19 pm

---

#17: I think arguing that this team was set up for homers is giving previous GM’s too much credit. Frankly, I can’t see any evidence that any of them had a plan to develop any particular kind of team. Jocketty might be in a position to do that, now. Whatever direction he takes, though, the key must be pitching, as it must be for any team.

#18: Freel and Hopper haven’t proved their ability to play every day.(And, except for the kids, every player on the team has had ample opportunity to prove himself.) If Victorino can play every day and we can dump all or most of Arroyo’s contract, go for it.

Come to think of it, moving Arroyo, Griffey and Dunn frees up rather a lot of cash.

Comment by justcorbly — 7/5/2008 @ 6:48 pm

---

Umm Annapolis, I hope you just forgot to mention Bruce, because if he’s not considered an untouchable than the Reds have no hope at all

Comment by Matt Steele — 7/5/2008 @ 7:11 pm

---

An outfield of Dunn, Victorino and Bruce gives us a pretty well rounded everyday group of outfielders and frees up some cash. Get me a catcher and some more right handed power (maybe a backup first baseman), I don’t feel too bad about the team.

Comment by preach — 7/5/2008 @ 11:47 pm

---

Being bad at allowing runs is only part pitching. It’s also part DEFENSE, which the Reds have been below average at for years now.

The biggest statistical difference between the 2007 Devil Rays and the 2008 Devil… oops, I mean Rays… is defense.

Last year the Rays team defensive efficiency was .662 - worst in baseball. (This means that when an opponent put the ball in play — not a BB, not a K, not a HR — he batted .338.)

This year Tampa’s defensive efficiency is .723 - BEST in baseball. (League average seems to be right around .700.)

Here are the Reds defensive efficiency numbers:

2007 - .682 (26th out of 30 in MLB)
2008 - .685 (29th out of 30 in MLB)

That is hugely hugely important, IMO. We’re making it too hard on the pitchers.

Comment by Dan — 7/6/2008 @ 1:04 pm

---

Daughtery doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Add good pitching to this team’s HR offense of the past 7=8 years, and this team wins more than they lose. Blaming Dunn an Griffey is a ploy to get e-mail and phone traffic. Say Dunn’s name at the beginning of sportstalk and he could field calls for his entire 3 hour show.

Comment by GregD — 7/7/2008 @ 8:46 am

---

And I would think moving Arroyo is as much to move his $10M+ salary the next two years as it is anything else.

Comment by GregD — 7/7/2008 @ 8:47 am

---

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website