Loading ...You’ve probably heard the rumors that Reds GM Walt Jocketty was looking to get rid of some players very soon. Jocketty says that it’s nonsense:
“I don’t where that came from,” he said. “First of all, I would have never said ‘clean house.’ It’s not necessary.”
Jocketty also said that the Reds might not trade any of the major players on the current roster.
“There’s a strong possibility we’ll have everyone till the end of the year,” he said. “Dusty (Baker) and I haven’t been here that long. We’re still evaluating the team.
“We haven’t had the luxury of seeing everyone over a long period of time.”
Over a long period of time, Adam Dunn has averaged 40 homers and 100 RBI. Jocketty needs to re-sign Dunn immediately.
There’s more:
The Reds have had seven straight losing seasons. Ownership wants to end that streak. So does Jocketty.
“Absolutely,” Jocketty said. “We talked about it from the beginning. A winning record is important. You want to change the culture and get the players to believe they can win.”
A winning season? What’s that? I don’t understand the concept.
Finally, for what it’s worth, here’s what Fay says:
The Reds haven’t fielded calls about Griffey and Adam Dunn. The Griffey to Tampa Bay rumor is just that – a rumor.
Ryan Freel and Bronson Arroyo would be difficult to trade as well….
Freel is a probably a month from playing and is owed $4 million in ‘09. Arroyo is owed $25 million for 2009 and ‘10.
As always, take all of this with a grain of salt. Circumstances could change quickly as we approach the trading deadline.
The one reason I think we need to explore trade possibilities is that the free agent market doesn’t look that great.
Water is wet. Fire is hot. You can’t believe anything said by politicians (especially) in an election year or by baseball execs before the all-star break. Some things are just what they are….
How about Dusty to the Mets for a Class A back-up catcher.
I think Dusty would be perfect for the Mets. He is just what the front office deserves. Include Patterson and Bako in the deal for no extra.
Jocketty has said he does not like to negotiate with players during the season. He may fully intend to resign Dunn. Or he may not, since he apparently hasn’t given Dunn a clue. However, not negotiating a new deal during the season does make it easier to make a trade.
Did anyone hear about the Travis Hafner comment by a caller on Bruce Drennen’s Sportstime Ohio show?
Didn’t hear about the comment, Jim. What was it?
I’ll just say if they wanted to trade Freel, it would have been easier before they signed Patterson…the market changed from seller’s to buyer’s. Well…I guess that depends on how other teams value Freel, but there’s no doubt he had more value before being re-relegated to the bench.
As for Arroyo, his contract (like Freel’s) was for too much money. It could be argued that Arroyo’s contract is in sync with free agent money for a pitcher like him, I suppose. However, I felt his contract was more for public relations than baseball ability.
If he was gone, what would we (and JTM) do if the Reds are not home?
Another great (ridiculous?) quote from the article linked by Chad (“says that its nonsense” link)….the Reds tried to trade Dunn last year and found little interest.
Hold on a minute…I’m not a GM and I don’t know GMs, but what “I” always hear is that the Reds fans blow hot and cold on Dunn because of spotty defense and strikeouts….but, it’s very hard to find a consistent 40 home run, 100 walk 100 run 100 rbi guy…and it is.
May be the Reds wanted too much for him? May be the Reds were trying to find some way to “downplay” Dunn to get fans to quit griping (reverse psychology?–Reds have used it before…”come to the ballpark more, but more tickets, THEN we’ll get better players…”); may be the Reds were trying to attract interest by announcing no one was interested…heck, I don’t know…but I do know that more and more teams are using “sabermetric” analysis….and Dunn comes up “star” in those circles.
Okay…so much for my opinion of “unbiased reporting”….even “unbiased” writers choose the phrases, information (confirmed or not) and words that are used…..
I’m ok with the Reds keeping Dunn, but we need a solid right-handed bat hitting behind him. Encarnacion is too inconsistent. The good thing about Dunn is that you know exactly what you’re going to get. You can’t say that about too many players.
Saturday was the perfect example of what Dunn brings. He homers gives the Reds a one run lead. Then he allowed a very catchable head high fly ball to hit off the wall for a triple. The runner then scored to tie the game.
How many of those HRs, RBIs, Runs, BBs has he given back through poor defense and baserunning. It is time for him to move on to the AL where he can become a DH.
Hopefully Krivsky offered Dunn to Texas before he offered Hamilton.
Yes, Dunn does get the HR’s, often when the Reds are ahead by 3 or 4 runs. But then you have to put up with his taking third strikes and his clumsy defensive play.
There is a reason Adam Dunn has no trade value and it’s because he sucks at baseball. It’s not unheard of for teams to give up blue chip prospects for rental players that are sure-fire productive bats at the deadline. Even with the changing philosophy of teams holding on to younger players, if Dunn was half as good as some of the people around here think he is, someone would have offered the Reds a reasonable deal by now. I am all for fan participation and debate, but maybe it’s time for the numbers people to finally realize what professional scouts and executives have seen for years and realize the donkey is nice bat to have when you want a walk or three run homer when you team is already leading by 4 runs.
Yes, he gets his 40/100/100, but at what cost to your team? His defense is incredibly bad (see post 11 above), his indignation over his personal strike zone that he martyrs himself on third strike calls for is even more frustrating. It’s almost if he wants to walk in big situations so his avg. w/ risp won’t go down any further when he makes an out. The only person on the reds that should be looking for a walk every time up is Griffey b/c he can’t hit anymore and is killing our lineup thanks to Dusty’s insistence on hitting him 3.
I have tried to remain optimistic about Dunn. I had even tricked myself for the 50 millionth time that his second half last year was actual progress, until I see him doing the exact same crap again this year.
I give this team another two weeks before Walt lights the match. The inconsistency of the pitching staff with the exception of volquez and injuries never gave them a fair shot. The margin was too thin for this team. I’m not going to enjoy seeing c.p. hitting leadoff the rest of the season once dunn and jr are gone, but the financial freedom to sign another class a free agent like cordero will be nice. A little more tinkering with trades and the emegence of darryl t. or bailey finding someone other than dick pole to help him with his mechanics and things could be ok in ‘09
Dunn is not that bad on defense and how many called third strikes as he really taken. The notion that he hits home runs only when the Reds are up or down three or more runs is just plain wrong. I would bet that most of his home runs this year have been in clutch or critical situations. Adam Dunn is not even in the equation when you want to talk about things wrong with this team.
Let see. Dunn is projected to have about 45 HR, 107 RBI, and 95 runs scored. It could be more if his teammates would drive him in more often seeing how he will likely be on base about 265 times.
Dunn bashers are critical of him because he isn’t what THEY want him to be. In fact, the Reds may not resign him because he isn;t What THEY want him to be either. They look at the the monstrous homers and the 6′7″ frame and think clean-up hitter. In reality, he is a #2 or #3 hitter. If the players in front of him have those types of numbers he’d have 140+ RBI.
To paraphrase Einstein, the surest sign of insanity is to keep doing what you’ve been doing, while hoping for different results. What the #&ll are we doing?!
Thank you Thomas.
To go along with Thomas’ Einstein quote, Corey Patterson is in CF and leading off tonight. I kid you not.
Does Adam Dunn pitch? Does Adam Dunn bat 1-9? Too blame Adam Dunn for the Reds woes is comical.
The funny thing is how so many Reds fans criticize Dunn for his defense when it’s only slightly below average this year.
but no, someone even said he couldn’t play baseball. Ridiculous.
Here’s a fun trivia question. Since 2004 who are the top 5 home run hitters?
Hint, Adam Dunn is 3rd!!!!!! (one behind Arod)
p.s. Dunn is 1st in walks over that same time period, 11th in runs, 180th in number of times GIDP (Pujols is 2nd), 18th in OPS, and 10th in Runs created!!!
oh and he’s 12th for times on base.
but no, he’s a terrible baseball player apparently.
Matt-and he’s doing it on BAD teams, which makes it even more amazing.
Yeah, Dunn hits all his HRs when the Reds are 3-4 runs ahead. Not trying to be a jerk, but that is just stupid. That’s ALWAYS the comment people make when they don’t like a HR hitter. Do you have a single bit of proof of that?
What is there to “see”? Joketty wants to see the team over what, a whole season? Why don’t you just log on and look at the damn stats, Walt? Hint: Patterson sucks.
Dunn’s 2008
Game situation AB per HR
tie 10.2
1run game 11.0
2run 6.0
3run 0.0
4run 0.0
5+ runs 19.0
16 of his 18 HR’s this season have been in games with a margin of 2 runs or less.
Career
Game situation AB per HR
tie 13.7
1run game 13.9
2run 12.6
3run 12.7
4run 15.2
5+ runs 17.0
His numbers tell the opposite story of what Dunn detractors try to say. When the margin is 3 or less, Dunn hits HR’s at a greater rate than when the game is margin is 4+ runs. And so far in 2008, 89% of his HR’s have come in 2 run games (or closer) while only 65% of his at-bats have come in games that are that close.
GregD, those are some fascinating data.
It’s interesting that the offensive knock against Dunn – that he only comes up big when it doesn’t count – is the same one ARod detractors use. Idiot fans and baseball writers almost drove their best player out of New York after last season, but Cashman did the smart thing and brought ARod back. Let’s hope Jocketty realizes Dunn’s value and brings him back, but adds an on-base machine to bat first in the lineup.
Adam Dunn’s homers will magically become more valuable.
To discusss Dunn’s fielding percentage is an unfair representation of his fielding ability. If you don’t get to the ball you don’t get an error (like the ball last Saturday that hit the wall) or last night the Pierre ball that went for a triple, a ball that an outfielder with even with average range would have caught ot at the very least it should have been single.
The Reds need Baseball Players not Fantasy Offensive Players. We need baseball winners not stat guys.
Dunn’s biggest problem isn’t Dunn but the fact he doesn’t have a consistent .300+ hitter around him in the lineup. I guarantee that if you put a high OBP guy behind him, preferably right handed, he would get more pitches to drive. If you put that guy ahead of him he would have more RBI’s and pitchers would not want to walk him to put two guys on. Dunn is what he is, but to his credit he is consistent with that. Truly there are not a lot of 40+ HR guys who don’t strike out a lot; so that we will have to accept. But he would drive the ball more often with a solid complement in the lineup.
umm Dunn’s range factor is 2.01 which is 4th in the majors. Obviously that’s a misleading statistic, but you can’t really use any *normal* fielding statistic to accurately judge ones fielding ability.
Zone rating is a little bit better and that shows Dunn being slightly below average though better than Carlos Lee, Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Quentin.
I think Dunn needs to bat third, behind Bruce and in front of Phillips for our lineup to be better, but I doubt that will happen
While we’re at it, why does Dunn have such a bad rep with respect to baserunning? I’ve seen a lot of bad baserunning from the Reds this year, but according to my (admittedly poor) memory, Dunn hasn’t been one of the problems. If someone can correct me I’m open to it.
I’ll add that Dunn has a surprising knack for stealing bases. He had 9 last year, and he was only caught twice.
Preach you say: “Dunn is what he is, but to his credit he is consistent with that”. If that means conistently inconsistent I agree.
But a team needs to count on their offensive leader to give them reasonably the same performance week after week understanding there are always minor highs and lows.
Consistency is not one poor month, one
huge month, one poor month, etc.
Look at 2008 alone: March/April – .223, 4 HR 10 rbi; May .284, 10 hr 25 rbi, 1/2+ of June .152, 4 hr, 7 rbi. You can’t make this guy the centerpiece of your offense in Cincinnati.
With what his year end numbers are going to command in salary especially. If you can send him to a team like the Yankees where they can overcome the .223, 4 hr, 10 rbi month with other hitters maybe. But not in Cincinnati where finances keep that depth to a minimum.
At the end of every season he is very consistent with his numbers. He will hit 40 Hr’s, drive in a 100, and play 150 games. That last stat alone is worth a lot in itself when you have had the injury prone outfield we have had the last few seasons. Hey, I’m no Dunn apologist, I much prefer a classic .300/20 HR/80 RBI/15 SB guy myself. Power hitters in general go on some tremendous up and downs and strike out a ton. And I don’t take defensive stats seriously because I’ve yet to see any that are as accurate as a scouting report. But at this point, if you want to win next year I think you have to resign him. Those numbers are hard to replace with what’s out there. The only way I see not resigning him is if management believes there are too many holes to fill for a championship next year and you blow up the team, or as part of a much larger blockbuster deal.
I’m just saying that while others say financially we have to get rid of him, I’m thinking that financially speaking we may be forced to keep him.
I hope Dunn continues to have those numbers. He is on my Fantasy Team.
But, I also agree that in real baseball .300/20 HR/80 RBI/15 SB with good defense would be better for the team. I would be willing to bet that we could get a lefty/righty platoon that could come pretty close to those numbers and the toatl cost for both would 1/2 of what Adam will command.
Dunn hits 40 home runs a year…but on average he usually hits less than .250 and strikes out nearly 200 times. Certainly the Reds could afford someone that only hits 25-30 home runs but can hit for average and doesn’t average more than one strikeout per game.