Loading ...Some guy over on McCoy’s weekly Q&A has a suggestion for how to fix the Reds:
Why not trade Adam Dunn, move Joey Votto to left field and play Scott Hatteberg every day at first base? This would improve the team defensively, get more contact hitters in the lineup, and fewer strikeouts, and save the team millions to spend to improve the team. — Mark, Bloomington, Ind.
McCoy rightly shoots this down, but even he still perpetuates the old “Reds strike out too much” myth. Strikeouts, per se, were never the problem with the Reds offense (in 2005, they led the league in Runs Scored, and strikeouts (by 150)). But now, no part of it holds water – the Reds don’t strike out very much at all, but their offense sucks eggs.
I’m not sure if this list includes today’s games, but the Reds rank 13th of 16 NL teams in runs scored – the bottom line for any offense. They’re only beating the Nats, Padres, and Giants – three clubs that play in HUGE pitchers’ parks. Meanwhile, the Reds have struck out the 4th-fewest times in the league. If that doesn’t put the stake in the “little ball,” how about this – the Reds rank 3rd in sacrifice bunts.
“But Adam Dunn…” Nope. Dunn’s K-rate is remarkably lower than his career norm:
2008: Once every 3.79 ABs
01-07: Once every 3.07 ABs
Yet for all those extra balls in play, he’s still “hitting” .209.
So once and for all, the problem is not that the Reds strike out too much. I’m honestly not sure what it is – they’re middle of the pack in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, 2b, 3b, BB, and SB – yet collectively, they can’t score. I’m pretty much fine with blaming anyone everyone but Keppinger and Paul Bako (whodathunkit), but the strikeout issue is a distraction.
I’m curious. Is there any statistical analysis on the streakiness of players?
I think the people are BBREF were trying to create a stat for that, but I think it’s only for career.
I think that looking at the WPA for each at bat and look for trends might work. Maybe find the STD DEV about the mean and the larger deviations would be streaky players
In terms of baserunning, and more specifically, outs lost while running the bases, the team is middle of the road in terms of CS and GIDP as well. Although there have been several critical baserunning mistakes that have led to additional lost outs, there haven’t been enough to justify baserunning as a primary problem for lack of runs scored. Considering the statistcs, I’m equally as baffled as everyone else.
Strikeout are a red herring in the production argument, and quite frankly, strikeouts are a totally worthless argument for a players value and shouldn’t be tracked at all unless they’re made in run scoring situations. The real measure of value of a productive MLB player is On Base Percentage, OPS and OPS+. And guess who has the highest OBP for the Reds this year behind Paul Bako (who’s is having a career year so far)? That’s right, Adam Dunn. So get over yourselves and your crap evaluations of Adam Dunn and his talent. Strikeouts are absolutely meaningless. Even if Adam Dunn isn’t producing RBI’s up to this point in the 2008 season, he is creating the second most run scoring opportunities by getting on base more than almost any Reds player.
Small ball or big ball: neither work if no one gets on base. Put slap-happy Hopper out there some and at least get someone on early and make the pitcher work from the stretch sometime. Heck, can Hatteburg play CF? I don’t know what to do. I know that being 8 games out after one month blows chunks.
You could always move Junior back to CF then put Votto in RF and Hatteberg at 1B. Sure Griffey’s range is poor but is that any worse than Freel misjudging balls?
Hatteberg
Dunn
Griffey
Encarancion
Votto
Phillips
Keppinger
Catcher (another position where we don’t really have a MLB starting caliber player)
Pitcher
It’s Baker. And unfortunately, it’s another premature contract extension (Arroyo) by Krivsky.
Come on its more than just Baker. It seems like everyone is below career norms except for Bako — you gonna blame that on Baker? Griff is getting old, Dunn could never hit for average and has gone thru slumps like this before, Phillips will probably never repeat last years performance, etc etc. Krivsky def. guilty of overpaying for guys coming off career seasons, but with a small market team if you don’t pay early and long term players become unaffordable as they near free agency. There are a lot of reasons for the struggles and to pin it all on Baker or Dunn or any one thing is an oversimplification.
One thing in my opinion no one discusses, is just how good all the teams are. The Pirates — yea we laugh at them, but they can beat you an given day. There aren’t many free wins, and the Reds are probably the most guilty of giving games away with stupid mistakes. I will say Dusty bunting EE is dumb as hell, and he does stuff like that as if he still doesn’t understand his personnel. So he’s not good but I can’t blame him for this mess either.
The biggest problem is that the Reds hitters get their hits, HR, SB, etc… when nobody is on base. When somebody does get on, they get picked off or nobody can drive them in.
Look at their average with RISP and their two out RBIs. Sorry I don’t have the exact numbers at hand, but they are near the bottom of the league in both categories.
Wow, I really like Jim’s suggestion (comment #5 above). Yeah, JR’s range is nonexistent, but that would really help the offense (which is where we need help now).
Actually, I guess Jim’s was comment # 6.
Re: #9: That’s probably true, but I’m not sure how many ABs we’re actually talking about.
The good thing, assuming nycredsfan is right, is that those sort of situational stats appear to be pretty random in nature, so the Reds should be reverting to the mean.
Me saying “it’s Baker” was an exteme oversimplification and a bit of frustration. I actually think a lot of the blame can get pinned on Castellini for being too involved and too inpatient with this team.
Team total batting:
250avg, 322obp, 406 slg (728 OPS)
Team batting w/RISP:
266avg, 339obp, 390 slg (729 OPS)
They’ve got a better average with RISP.
Corey hitting 8th would help. Putting Dunn at 2 and EE at 3 would help some more. Leave votto at 4.
How about this: inability to sustain a rally due to holes in the lineup. The holes are Griffey, Dunn, and often Patterson, along with the pitcher. That’s four out of nine spots. A team like that will put up normal stats, as the other five spots will do their share, but not score runs.
I don’t think that works, Mark T.
A lineup with 45% “holes” wouldn’t put up league-average hitting stats – not without a couple MVP seasons from the other 4 guys. (Plus, Dunn’s a lot of things, but with .400 OBP, a rally-stopper isn’t one).
Oddly quiet news day in Redsland given what I’ve been seen advertised as Cincinnati baseball this past week.
Me eyes tell me that Dunn’s not gettin’ it done.