Loading ...Alex Eisenberg writes scouting reports for Hardball Times and Baseball Intellect. He always does interesting pieces that include video to show people what he’s talking about. When he says something like “better body tilt” or “scap load,” it gives a good idea of what he’s referring to. At the beginning of April he did a piece comparing Bailey v2006 to v2007. He also talks about Bailey’s mental makeup (but isn’t calling him dumb) in addition to mechanics.
I normally wouldn’t make too big a deal about a pitcher’s mental make-up. I view it as a plus or minus but I would like see actual talent and results before using reports on a player’s mental make-up to draw opinions about a prospect. My opinion is that reports on the make-up of a player are way too subjective of a way to judge a player because nobody can get inside the head of a player to get a feel for the exact thought processes of that player.
He then goes on to quote from Baseball America a concern a scout has about Bailey’s approach. The entire article is interesting for his point of view and the video he includes. Remember it is just one person’s opinion and he still likes Bailey. He just thinks he might be a bit overrated. Truth is, projecting young players like this is hard as heck but it’s nice to get as many informed opinions as possible to try to get a more complete view.
Add Baseball Intellect to your list of links as it includes his reports on many prospects.
I don’t put much credence into what this guy has to say. I’ve seen him pair clips of a guy throwing, but using different pitches (fastball, curve) to illustrate mechanical flaws. Clearly, young guys often change the mechanics to suit the pitch they’re thowing. It’s why they get beat around in the minors, and yet he fails to recognize this simple premise. For all his supposed intellect, he fails to mention the only flaw I see (which is minor), which is dropping his glove down instead of pulling it back into his center of gravity as he throws–it’s normally a recipe for wildness, which he’s struggled with. If anything, this tells me Homer has exceptional coordination to overcome this and have success. He’ll get more efficient as he matures. The kid’s gonna be fine. What this guy wants to convince you of is that these elite pitchers are somehow fundamentally flawed, when in fact 98% of their mechanics are perfect, and often when they are not, it’s intentional in order to be more deceptive. Does he think he’s discovering something the team hasn’t analyzed already? C’mon. And don’t get me started on undervaluing mental makeup. Any knucklehead who’s ever coached knows that plays a huge role. Gheesh.
SoS,
Thanks for the comment but I think you’re being kinda hard on the guy. I think his points are valid and it’s a bit much to flaw him for his intellect for failing to “mention the only flaw I see.” You’re no more of a source of wisdom on this than he probably. Not bashing you because I think the flaw you point out is a good one.
I just hate to see people completely disown anything someone says because they disagree with part of it.
And if you read what he actually says about mental makeup, it’s not that he undervalues it, it’s that it’s “subjective” and so hard to measure. It’s psychology…about as hard of a science to quantify as there is. One person sees thinking too much on the mound as a weakness…another sees it as an ability to think on multiple levels, portending an ability to adjust. Is either right? Is either wrong? Hard to say. Each of this players is different.
Eisenberg isn’t saying he undervalues makeup. Just that it’s so hard to measure it it’s hard to say what any player’s true makeup is.
I got the email you guys probably got from Alex and I checked out the article. After reading it I realized its basically useless at this point given that 2007 clip was from the start last year in which Bailey initially injured his groin in the minors. After this start he went on the DL. Top it off with the fact that the Reds also are changing his mechanics last year once he returned, during the spring and still working on it down in Louisville and while Alex does a good job at what he does, it gives us absolutely no real insight into todays Homer Bailey.
I tend to agree more with SOS on the mechanical break down this guys presents. I don’t think anyone really disputes Bailey was less effective with the groin injury. There are guys with a lot worse mechanics pitching in the bigs right now. My biggest concern is with his stride length towards the plate and his ability to pitch down in the zone. i was pleased to see him start using the slider in his last spring start. Whether he has continued to use it at Louisville I have no idea. His stuff is always going to be nasty enough to beat AAA hitters and either someone down there has to talk to him about the road ahead or he needs to come to cincy and learn it himself. The problem is that Volquez and Cueto have made this team competitive and it remains to be seen whether Fogg is more valuable.
As for the mental akeup category, the fact that this guy views this only as a plus/minus factor is a joke. That is the battle in pitching or else Kyle Farnsworth would have won cy youngs and Jamie Moyer would have been out of the league 5 years ago. I think there is no better illustration of “learning to pitch” and cerebral growth than Josh Beckett. He was Homer Bailey a few years back. I want to give the time to develop before I give up on him. I like that the other guys went and passed him up will challenge him to make it back to the show. My only scare from this column is how he projects him as sometimes dominant, but wildly inconsistent no. 3 starter. Does the name Kyle Lohse come to mind???
As for the mental make-up, the fact he disregards this part of pitching clearly shows he has no business evaluating pitchers. I agreed with the scouts take on how Bailey needs to do a better job of establish his fastball early in the count like Harang.
I know nothing about analyzing pitchers pitching. I was just thinking – what if Homer turns out well, and we have Harnang and Cueto and Volquez and Bailey with Arroyo as a #5 starter. That’s world series caliber.
Back to reality now.
Hey guys, I’m the author of that article, so I want to clear up a couple things.
1. Sultan, I think you’re referring to Henry Sosa…the mechanical flaw was that he changed his mechanics when throwing his fastball and curveball. He tucked the glove in for his fastball and let his arm hang straight down for his curveball and he did it every time. That is just bad and inconsistent mechanics. I got an e-mail from a scout that says he has seen him live and notes he also changes his arm action and can’t believe the Giants have not fixed this. It is not true that every young pitcher changes their mechanics to suit the pitch they’re throwing…at least the good ones don’t. With that being said, I still like Sosa a lot, but he has some work to do.
2. I don’t like Bailey’s front side mechanics (which you mention). Nor do I like how he completely straightens out his arm during his arm action (I prefer it to be shorter), but I was looking for inconsistencies in what changed from his 2006 season to his 2007 season. The two things that stuck out were a cleaner arm action/better scap load and a more aggressive finish.
It should also be mentioned that pitchers do not change their mechanics in order to be deceptive (unless you are talking about guys who drop to a side-arm angle or who vary the tempo of their delivery, etc.). The changes Bailey had were not voluntary or done in order to be deceptive, nor were Sosa’s.
Eric has my point of mental make-up exactly right. I don’t undervalue it, but it is an extremely subjective issue to judge.
Doug, as for the groin injury, the start I used was on 6/4/07, his last start before being called up, but still 3 starts until he actually injured his groin.
Also, I site your piece on his numbers non-injured and injured and the non-injured numbers, while much better than when he was injured, are only mediocre overall in terms of the most predictive stats:
6.85 K/9 and a 4.05 BB/9
Now, it would be a positive if they did adjust his mechanics and I will try to get a look at him and see the changes he has made since.
But the overall point of the article is that while he is still a great prospect, he consistency issues (related to mechanics, results), he has questions of how well he pitches instead of just throws, and he has questions about his mental make-up. Is he somewhat overrated? My feeling is yes. I’m far from saying he is damaged goods or anything like that. But there are a few pitchers not rated in the top-10 that I would take over Bailey.
One more thing about mental make-up as I was reading over a couple comments…
Scouts felt Brandon Webb lacked toughness…felt he was too soft for the majors.
A quote on Day Meyer states in a BA top-100 list:
“He’s a big-game pitcher. He pitches every game with that same level of intensity–as if it was the last game of the season with it all on the line.”
Mike Hinckley, BA’s #29 prospect in 05:
“What separates him is the makeup, work ethic, preparation. The physical tools are there, and all those intangibles are there already.”
Erik Bedard is viewed by many as not caring enough about the game, too soft, etc. Why? Because the media doesn’t like the guy. He doesn’t like answering their questions.
A very small sample to be sure, but I want to see pure stuff and results before getting into mental make-up because it is an extremely subjective thing to judge. That doesn’t make it not important and I think I should clear that up.
Also, I wanted to say thanks to Eric for linking this story. It is greatly appreciated.
[...] Reds Fans The Majewski Report April 12, 2008, 2:49 pm Filed under: The Majewski Report | Tags: Cincinnati Reds, Gary Majewski Alot of Reds sites are posting minor league updates for Jay Bruce (Red Reporter) and Homer Bailey (Redleg Nation), but for some reason no one is posting Gary Majewski’s minor league stats. [...]
[...] Do you realize how many really good baseball sites there are out there? No, ESPN doesn’t make the cut. With a hat tip to the Redleg Nation, I discovered perhaps my favorite so far…http://www.baseball-intellect.com/. Their focus on scouting is perhaps the best I’ve ever read on the Internet. What I’ve read there so far are like the discussions I have with the best coaches I know about players in our local leagues. Last night I was at pitching practice with my son ( who catches ) and had a conversation about “scap loading”, “foot plant” and “stride timing” with a very respected coach. What a joy to find a blog who digs into the same “scouting” topics, but describes them in better detail than I evern could. Stop reading my blog RIGHT NOW and go over there to pick up some baseball intel. [...]