Slyde at Red Reporter has a great analysis of the new Pitch F/X data.  About a year ago, I had mostly convinced myself that baseball statistical analysis had reached a plateau - there were no major questions left unanswered, at least about offense.

I was wrong.  This Pitch F/X stuff is an incredible wealth of data, and guys like Doug, and now Slyde, are just starting to dig in.  Fascinating stuff.

Ignore work and cheer for the Reds as Aaron Harang attempts to close out April with a series win against the hated Cardinals!

Discuss it here.

Toledo 4 - Louisville 3

Justin Lehr picked up his first loss of the season against the Mudhens.  Lehr went 5.2 innings, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9.  The outing raised Lehr’s ERA to 2.20 in 32.2 innings pitched this season.  He’s allowed 26 hits and just 5 walks in that span while recording 27 strikeouts.  David Weathers pitched a perfect inning in relief.

Drew Anderson led the offense with a 3-4 night at the plate.  Anderson had a double and scored once.  Luis Bolivar went 2-4 with a run scored.

Chattanooga had a day off.

Sarasota was off as well.

Dayton 3 - Peoria 2

It feels like it has been at least a week since I have mentioned Brandon Waring’s name.  In this game, Brandon went 2-3 with 2 solo homeruns for the Dragons.  The last of which came in the top of the 9th to break a 2-2 tie.  Waring has been struggling of late, batting just .211 in his last 10 games with 18 strikeouts.  Kevyn Feiner and Justin Reed both went 2-3 as well.

Scott Carroll picked up a no-decision in the game by going 6.1 innings, allowing 0 runs while scattering just 3 hits and allowing a walk.  He struck out 3.  Joseph Krebs picked up his 3rd win in relief.  Krebs pitched 1.2 scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit while striking out 1.

September 21, 1975: Don Gullett (7 innings) and Rawly Eastwick (2 innings) combine on a 2 hitter to beat the Braves, 3-0, in Atlanta. The only Braves hits were singles by Dave May in the 4th and Larvell Blanks in the 5th.

Rawlins Jackson Eastwick II was in the minors until May 20, but tied for the legue lead in savs with 22 in 1975. He had a 5-3 record, 22 saves, and a 2.60 ERA. A collector of antiques and paintings, EAstwick had a twin brother Ralph, who did not play baseball.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Fatherhood is the biggest responsibility you’ll ever have, but it’s the greatest thing in the world. Good luck!

Alright, now we’re rolling. All the Reds need is a good start by Johnny Cueto tonight and some more timely hitting, and the Reds can secure a win in the second straight series on this road trip.

Joel Pineiro, who is an average pitcher at best these days, will be hurling for the Cards. A win tonight is key, since it would give Aaron Harang a chance to lead the Reds to a sweep of a division rival tomorrow afternoon.

Discuss it here.

Courtesy of reader Sultan of Swaff, some great pictures and an in-person scouting report from Sunday’s Dragons game.  It’s exciting stuff, about one guy I’m pretty familar with and another pleasant surprise.  (Anyone else going to a game?  We’d love your reports and photos.)  Here’s the Sultan:

Sorry no Brandon Waring pics (does his high K rate scare anyone else?), HBP the day before, but Frazier and Montano more than made up for it.

Here’s my take on these two: 

Luis Montano–Having just seen Cueto pitch two weeks ago in Brewtown, I was astonished at how similar these two seem to be. First is their physical/mental attributes–both are generously listed as 6′ (doubtful). Both from the Dominican, both have similar demeanor on the mound. Second is their stuff.  Montano has an identical repertoire (not quite Cueto-level fastball, plus changeup, average curve). >> Continue

Columbus 5 - Louisville 2; final 17

No, that is not a typo.  Columbus scored 3 runs in the top half of the 17th inning to take win.  Despite the long game, not to many Bats had exceptional nights at the plate.  Paul Janish and Jolbert Cabrera each went 2-8 while Chris Dickerson went 3-6 with an rbi.

Adam Pettyjohn went 7 innings in the start, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits while walking 2.  Gary Majewski pitched 2 scoreless innings in relief, allowing just 2 hits to lower his ERA to 7.15.

Chattanooga 6 - Carolina 4

This was a completion of the suspended game from Sunday.  Michael DeJesus went 3-4 in the game with 2 doubles, 3 rbis, and 3 runs scored.  Shaun Cumberland went 2-3 with 2 walks while scoring twice.  Sean Henry went 2-3 in the game and also had 3 rbis.

Robert Manuel picked up the win in relief by going 3 innings, allowing just 1 walk and recording 3 strikeouts.  Manuel has now pitched 14.1 scoreless innings at both the Single-A and Double-A levels.

Chattanooga 1 - Carolina 0; final 7

Shaun Cumberland led the bottom of the first off with a solo homerun.  That run would be all the Lookouts would need for the win.  Cumberland finished the game 2-3.

Ben Jukich made the run hold up by pitching 6.2 scoreless innings.  He scattered 6 hits and walked 4 while striking out 1.

Sarasota 9 - Dunedin 2

Chris Valaika went 5-5 for the Reds with a homerun, 2 rbis, and 3 runs scored.  Valaika is now batting .389/.404/.593 in 108 at-bats this season.  Drew Stubbs went 3-5 with a homerun, 3 rbis, and 2 runs scored.  Stubbs is now batting .348/.425/.543 in 92 at-bats.

Travis Wood improved to 2-2 on the season by pitching 6 innings, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5.

Dayton vs Peoria

This game was postponed.

May 30, 1898: Elmer Smith extends his hitting streak to 30 games during a DH against the Dodgers in Brooklyn, won by the Reds 6-4 and 3-2.

Smith’s streak ended the next day. His streak remained the all-time Cincinnati record until it was broken by Pete Rose in 1978, and it still ranks among the top 15 streaks in NL history. Amazingly, Smith suffered all season from a mild case of malaria he contracted during a swing through the south during spring training.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Welcome back to St. Loo, Walt Jocketty. The new Reds GM returns to the scene of his greatest triumphs, and the Reds look to win the middle series on this 9-game road trip.

Tonight, of course, is game one of the series, and its very important for Bronson Arroyo to start pitching well if the Reds are going to have a decent team in 2008. Tonight is a good time for Arroyo to start the turnaround.

Discuss it here….

UPDATE: Welcome back to the majors, Bill Bray. So long, Java Man.

Louisville 13 - Columbus 4

Paul Janish had a career day yesterday.  Janish went 4-4 with a homerun and 6 runs batted in!  The homerun was a grand slam in the 5th inning.  Paul also scored 4 times in the game as well and had 2 doubles.  Drew Anderson went 3-4 in the game with a triple, 1 run scored, and 2 runs batted in.  Chris Dickerson added 2 hits in 3 at-bats, scoring 3 runs and drawing 2 walks.  Andy Phillips went 2-4 in the game with a double and Jay Bruce made his only hit a homerun, a 2-run blast in the 7th inning giving Bruce 5 homeruns on the season.

Needless to say, Matt Maloney got all the help he could need in picking up his 2nd win of the season.  Maloney went 5.2 innings, allowing 3 runs on 8 hits and a walk while striking out 9.

Chattanooga 2 - Carolina 0

This game was suspended in the 4th inning.

Dunedin 3 - Sarasota 2; final 13

Juan Francisco supplied most of the offense for the Reds in the loss.  Francisco went 2-6 with 2 doubles and 2 runs batted in.  Chris Valaika also went 2-6 while scoring once.

Daniel Guerrero picked up a no-decision by going 7 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits while striking out 5.  Logan Ondrusek pitched great in relief, going 3 hitless and scoreless innings while striking out 5.

Dayton 7 - Kane County 0

Luis Montano improved to 4-0 on the season by going 6 innings, allowing just 1 hit while striking out 8!  Montano’s ERA dropped to 1.27 on the season in 28.1 innings pitched.  He has allowed 14 hits and 8 walks while striking out 22 over that span.

Zachary Cozart hit his first homerun of the season, a grand slam in the 9th inning.  Keltavious Jones went 3-5 with 2 runs scored and Kevyn Feiner went 3-4 with a double and 2 runs scored.

June 2, 1987:The Reds select Oklahoma University pitcher Jack Armstrong in the first round of the amateur draft.

Armstrong looked like money in the bank when he reached the majors in 1988, at age 23, and started the 1990 All Star game. But after a 7-13 season and a 5.48 ERA in 1991, the REds traded him. Armstrong never won another game after age 28. Other futhre major leaguers chosen by the Reds included Freddie Benavides in the second round, Reggie Sanders in the 7th, Butch Henry in the 15th, Milt Hill in the 28th, Tim Costo in the 41st, and Glenn Sutko in the 45th.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Today, Edinson Volquez tries to improve his record to 4-0, while the Reds attempt to drop Barry Zito to 0-6. Wouldn’t that be nice?

Discuss it here….

John Erardi has an interesting article in today’s Enquirer:

Some excerpts:

For all the talk about the Reds not being able to hit with runners in scoring position (RISP), they are hitting higher in that situation than the Chicago Cubs, who led the Reds by 6 1/2 games going into Saturday night’s games?

It’s true: The Reds are hitting .257 with RISP, and the Cubs are hitting .244 in the same circumstances. (The Reds are hitting four points higher than the National League average with RISP - .253.)

So, why have the Cubs outscored the Reds by 42 runs? Because the Cubs have 82 more plate appearances with RISP than do the Reds (220 plate appearances with RISP - 14th in the 16-team league).

Conclusion: You’ve got to get runners on base in order to score them.

Does this go against our manager’s beliefs?

That how often your team’s hitters strike out really doesn’t matter?

Maybe this will convince you: The Reds have struck out the second fewest times of any team in the league (134 times to Atlanta’s 123 times) yet have one of the least productive offenses in baseball …

Go figure: Reds pitchers lead the league in strikeouts with 191 through Friday.

This is something I’ve never been able to figure. Guys that know more stats than I do say that strikeouts don’t matter for hitters, but they judge a pitchers chances of success (partially at least) by strikeouts. Isn’t this contradictory?

That the Reds have the fourth-oldest group of position players (30.0) in the league, and eighth-

oldest group of pitchers (29.5)? (The source - baseballreference.com - “weights” the ages by how much the players play. In other words, if there are several 40-year-olds clogging up the bench, their ages are weighted much less.)

The last time the Reds were really good was 1999, when the average ages of their hitters was 28.3 and their pitchers were 28.0. (Keep in mind that a two-year difference in average age between this year’s team and the 1999 team is very significant.)

The last time the Reds won the World Series (1990), they averaged 27.5 for hitters and 27.4 for pitchers. And in 1970 - when the Reds started the season 70-30 and roared into the World Series - they were 25.9/25.2.

Conclusion: The Reds have to get younger before they get better.

This shows the conumdrum the Reds have caught themselves in (probably due to the owner’s impatience). They don’t trust their young players enough (which, IMO, means they don’t trust their own scouts, eyes, decision making) to let them operate without a safety net. If you had Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, even Belisle, why did you need a Fogg? If you already have a Hopper, Freel, and Bruce, why did you need a Patterson?

Read the full article. Like almost everything Erardi writes, it’s interesting stuff.

Games played 04/26/08

AAA

Columbus 4 - Louisville 3 (13 Innings)

Kevin Barker was 2 for 3 with a HR and a 2B. Chris Dickerson, Jolbert Cabrera, and Drew T. Anderson all chipped in with two singles each.

Tom Shearn tossed 5.2 IP allowing 3 R, 7 H, and 5 BB while recording 3 K. Danny Herrera and Jon Adkins tossed 2.1 and 2 scoreless innings of relief respectively.

AA

Chattanooga 5 - Carolina 4

B. J. Szymanski went 2 for 3 with 2 HR and a BB. Cody Strait went 2 for 4 with a 3B and a 2B. Jose Castro was 2 for 4. Michael Griffin homered.

Ramon Ramirez put up 5.2 IP giving up 4 R, 3 ER, 4 H, and 2 BB while getting 8 K. Carlos Fisher and Josh Roenicke both added an inning plus of scoreless relief.

High A

Sarasota 6 - Dunedin 4

Jason Louwsma was 3 for 4 with 2 2B. Drew Stubbs went 2 for 5 with a 3B and a 2B. Justin Turner was 2 for 5 with a 2B. Chris Valaika and Anthony Esquer both added 2 singles each.

Rafael Gonzalez started and tossed 5 IP allowing 0 R, 3 H, a BB and no K. Sean Watson got a cheap save, allowing 2 R in 1.1 IP.

Low A

Kane County 7 - Dayton 1 (Game 1 - 7 Innings)

Denis Phipps was 2 for 2. Keltavious Jones was 1 for 4 with a 2B.

Redleg Nation Spotlight player Matt Klinker got the start and went 4 IP allowing 5 R, on 5 H and 2 BB. He struck out 3 while giving up 2 HR for the loss.

Dayton 7 - Kane County 5 (Game 2 - 7 Innings)

Jacob Long went 2 for 4 with a 2B. Brett Bartles and Zack Cozart both added 2 singles each. Todd Frazier doubled and walked.

Enerio Del Rosario started and went 3.1 IP giving up 1 R, 3 H, and a BB while recording 4 K. Raymond Jeffords got the win tossing 2.1 IP of scoreless relief. Joeseph Krebs added 1.1 IP of scoreless relief for the save.