Loading ...John Fay recently posted the below lineup for Aaron Harang’s last spring start and suggested that it could be the opening day lineup.
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppingger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Javy Valentin C
Aaron Harang P
I have problems with Patterson and his .298 career OBP at the top and Dunn and his good OBP hitting down at #5. That aside, if this is in fact Baker’s lineup opening day, what happens to it when Gonzalez returns from his injury and replaces Keppinger? Does he, and his pathetic career .295 OBP, slide into the two spot? Wow, I sure hope not. Patterson then Gonzalez would be a pretty sad one two punch at the top of the order. Worst ever maybe?
Corey Patterson CF
Alex Gonzalez SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Javy Valentin C
Scared sufficiently of the prospects of this, I decided to look back through Baker’s managerial career and see what the top two spots in his lineup have looked like. The results are below the fold. Seeing names like Thompson, J Patterson, Vizcaino, D Bell, A Gonzalez (The other one.), N Perez, and Cedeno getting time at the top of the order for Dusty in the past does not alleviate my fears. I guess he does like those bases unclogged.
1993 Games OBP 1-Lewis 101 .302 2-Thompson 95 .375 McGee .353 1-37 3-12 5-18 6-52 1994 Games OBP 1-Lewis 108 .340 2-J Patterson 43 .315 2-Thompson 33 .290 1995 Games OBP 1-Lewis 68 .311 1-D Sanders 50 .327 2-Thompson 70 .317 2-J Patterson 27 .294 2-Benjamin 22 .256 1996 Games OBP 1-Benard 115 .333 1-Javier 30 .336 2-Mueller 47 .401 2-Thompson 38 .301 2-Scarsone 25 .286 1997 Games OBP 1-D Hamilton 110 .354 2-Vizcaino 108 .323 Javier .368 1-34 3-19 6-32 Mueller .369 2-34 7-49 1998 Games OBP 1-D Hamilton 90 .398 1-Benard 48 .396 2-Mueller 108 .383 Javier .385 1-12 3-4 5-26 6-51 1999 Games OBP 1-Benard 125 .359 2-Mueller 84 .388 2-Santangelo 20 .406 2-R Martinez 19 .327 2000 Games OBP 1-Benard 125 .342 2-Mueller 121 .333 2001 Games OBP 1-Benard 75 .320 1-C Murray 68 .319 2-Aurilia 133 .369 2002 Games OBP 1-D Bell 47 .333 1-Lofton 43 .350 1-Goodwin 23 .321 2-Aurilia 113 .305 2003 Games OBP 1-Grudzielanek 69 .366 1-Lofton 52 .352 2-A Gonzalez 76 .295 2-Grudzielanek 45 .366 C Patterson .329 3-37 6-30 2004 Games OBP 1-Walker 58 .352 1-C Patterson 55 .320 2-C Patterson 47 .320 2-Lee 28 .356 2005 Games OBP 1-Hairston 76 .336 1-C Patterson 29 .254 1-N Perez 26 .298 2-N Perez 65 .298 2-Walker 61 .352 2006 Games OBP 1-Pierre 159 .330 2-Walker 32 .356 2-Theriot 29 .412 2-Cedeno 26 .271
Take a look at positions now. Notice how many times CF=leadoff and SS=Second
MlbFan30, I was wondering what it might be that Dusty found “attractive” in a hitter for the leadoff spot. Since CF and SS usually indicated speed I guess that must be it.
Well I’d like to know if there were better alternatives available to him. Problem seems to be that your fast guys that can steal don’t have good on base percentages apart from the Ricky Henderson’s and Tim Raines of the world. So then you have a dilemma: do you bat a guy l ike Hatteberg with no wheels but good OBP leadoff? Maybe, just maybe pitchers would prefer to pitch around a good hitter like Hatteberg precisely because he does clog up the bases and doesn’t run well. Whereas a guy like Patterson or Freel gets no free passes and has to earn his way on. Sure in an ideal world you got a leadoff hitter with an OBP of near .400 who can steal bags.. but how many guys in the league can do that? We certainly don’t have any at the moment.
I just hope Jay Bruce bats .380 and pops an HR every 7 at-bats in Kentucky.
I don’t worry about the leadoff guy. The only time it makes a difference is when the game begins.
Leading off the game with a walk just because the guy “clogs the bases”? That sentence is giving me heartburn.
OBP, SLG, OPS
Patterson .298 .414 .712
Keppinger .367 .439 .806
Griffey .374 .553 .927
Phillips .306 .419 .725
Dunn .381 .519 .900
Encarnacion .348 .450 .798
Votto .360 .548 .908
Valentin .308 .401 .708
Who says the leadoff man has to steal bases? Are we playing for one run or a big inning?
Everyone other than Patterson in the projected opening day line-up is a better candidate for the leadoff spot in terms of OBP.
My first question was who was a better alternative in all those lineups you posted.
My follow up question is how many of those teams made the playoffs anyhow, and of the ones that didn’t was the problem too few runs scored or (more likely) lack of quality pitching?
Again I am gonna make the case that high OBP guys with speed are super rare, and a guy like Keppinger or Hatteberg thrust into the leadoff spot would probably see a major drop off in production because of their lack of speed.
Aaron,
Why would a guy like Kepp or Hatteberg have their numbers drop off because of a lack of speed? What does their speed have to do with their ability to get on base?
With the exception of Valentin, who in that line-up is slow?
My reasoning is thus:
Hatte comes up with a man on 2nd or 3rd they will pitch around him. Heck 2 outs they will pitch around him because 2 hits are gonna be required to drive him in from first. Suddenly you stick him leadoff they pitch right at him. Maybe he hits .320 which is great but is OBP drops off because they don’t pitch around him as much. Pitchers are trained not to walk leadoff hitters with speed, or any batter with speed, thus the reason why fast guys have lower OBPs than big slow guys. Again, I want to know who besides Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines is a fast guy that has a high OBP.. its a rare trait not as common as we make it out to be here in the blogosphere.
Why would Votto get the starting nod over Hatteberg?
Hatteberg has a great knack for working a walk. He probably sees more pitches per at bat than any Reds hitter.
Again, I want to know who besides Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines is a fast guy that has a high OBP.
Here area all players last season with 20+ SB and .350+ OBP. MLB average OBP last year was .336.
PLAYER SB OBP
Jose Reyes 78 .354
Hanley Ramirez 51 .386
Eric Byrnes 50 .353
Brian Roberts 50 .377
Carl Crawford 50 .355
Chone Figgins 41 .393
Ichiro Suzuki 37 .396
David Wright 34 .416
Grady Sizemore 33 .390
Willy Taveras 33 .367
Johnny Damon 27 .351
Reggie Willits 27 .391
Curtis Granderson 26 .361
Bobby Abreu 25 .369
Rickie Weeks 25 .374
Alex Rodriguez 24 .422
Kenny Lofton 23 .367
Carlos Beltran 23 .353
Corey Hart 23 .353
Ian Kinsler 23 .355
Gary Sheffield 22 .378
B.J. Upton 22 .386
Nate McLouth 22 .351
Rajai Davis 22 .361
Russell Martin 21 .374
Don’t look so rare a trait to me. I’d be willing to bet there are more fleet footed fellows who didn’t swipe 20 bags that have a high OBP also.
i know this sounds insane
and i know he is a power guy
but i could see Votto leading off till we get a set lead off hitter…
i like Corey
and we gotta think on whos gonna replace Griffey when he retires (or gets traded) if Corey isnt here. so?
for now i could see votto or hattey leading off.
or giving corey a chance
dusty has been on winning teams
so remember
he is managing the Reds
and your not
your at home critisizing him…
no Narron… my dog could have done better than him….
i meant to put now narron*
Nice try Tom. I get the sense that with those guys, catchers didn’t really try to throw them out. They probably had a slow guy at-bat, and they figured if they let the guy steal by half-assing the throw down the second, it would open up first base, so they could then walk the guy at-bat. Check the guys who hit behind the names you listed. Chances are they are slow runners, and the pitcher/catcher worked together to ensure they could then walk said batter to clog the bases up some more.
I’ve read their book, those magnificent bastards.
Aaron,
Hatteberg may get pitched to more, resulting in a higher average with an equal OBP because he will have a higher average but fewer walks. Still, I don’t think Hatteberg is being pitched around because he isn’t fast…. the guy has little to no power, not many pitchers are scared to throw Hatteberg strikes.
if a runner is on third with less than 2 out would you throw hatte a strike?
if you have an empty base to set up a double play and get out of an inning wouldnt you pitch around hatte? there are legit reasons to pitch around batters in the middle of the lineup. the one guy in the order you never pitch around is a leadoff guy or a guy with speed.
half the guys are your high obp/20+ steals list are either #3 hitters or 10 million dollar players… you act like it is so easy to replace our current top of the lineup guy… buy Bruce would have been maybe slightly higher OBP canceled out by baserunning inexperience, whereas Freel and Hopper are virtual clones of Patterson. Hopper is probably the best guy but with almost no history.
It is easy to replace Patterson’s .300 OBP. You send Freel and his .360 OBP out to CF instead. Over the course of a season, the leadoff spot will get 750 PAs. Patterson will get on base 225 times, Freel will get on 270 times. Then you bat Votto, .385 OBP minors and .360 OBP majors, 2nd rather than Gonzalez and his .300 OBP. Over the course of a season, the 2nd spot will get 735 PAs. Gonzalez will get on base 220 times, Votto will get on 265 times. You’ve just added 90 additional baserunners over the course of the season for Dunn, Griffey, and Phillips to drive in. Plus you’ve moved Patterson and Gonzalez to the bottom of the order where the two most proficient outmakers on your team will actually get less ABs, and thus makes less outs.
I agree AGON belongs at the bottom of the lineup.. no argument from me there.
I like Freel too, to be honest… but last year his OBP was way down and his history shows he is not an every day solution for the long term.
Hatte or Kepp should and will bat # 2 in this lineup so all qwe are discussing here is really the #1 spot, which will be the CF whether it is Patterson, Hopp, or Freel… and Patterson has been good in spring and Bruce was ok but with baserunning stupidity that negates his ability to bat lead off. So I think Dusty is playing the odds and being smart right now. Freel will get his starts in leadoff I am sure of it.. and if he seizes it and dominates he will play more often.. he just hasn’t won the job this spring. Patterson has been the best man this spring any way you slice it.
Interesting to note that Alex Gonzalez’s career numbers for batting in the 2-hole seem to say that it’s been the best spot for him(it’s the one spot is OBP is the highest)….with that said, I don’t think it truly is a good idea to play him there as HIS numbers might be best there they still aren’t that GOOD of numbers. I think Dusty’s main flaw is that he among many other people are stuck on old stats. Where OBP is only a pointless stat and speed has to be at the top of the line up no matter what. I’d hope that if Patterson struggles at leadoff, which the past points to it happening, that Dusty will move him down and not make the mistake of thinking he HAS to be the leadoff hitter.
It’s late and I’m bored so I just looked at Patterson’s overalls. He has a career .330 OBP batting 7th. It appears obvious(to everyone but Dusty) that hitting leadoff really isn’t his style. I’d still prefer Freel in Center and lead off until he injures himself.
In response to the guys on Tom’s list being very rare and expensive, I think the Reds have a guy that can be one of those guys in Norris Hopper. Too bad he’ll be the fifth outfielder on opening day and not the CF.
The scary thing with Hopper is that he doesn’t have a history of getting on base like he did last season with the Reds. He put up a very good .379 OBP last season with the Reds, but the only other season with a significant amount of ABs in his minor league career that he matched that production was 2006 in AAA when he put up a .378 OBP. His career OBP in the minors is .343. Stranger things have happened, but one would have to expect, based on Hopper’s past, that he is very unlikely to maintain that .379 OBP as a 29 year old big leaguer this coming season. I’d expect him to fall off to the .320 to .330 range which would be just below league average and not good at all for a top of the order hitter. I wouldn’t count on Hopper to be anything more that a bench player.
Maybe what we are really bitching about here is that we didn’t sign Kenny Lofton instead of Patterson. But who knows maybe Lofton wanted more money, more years, guaranteed contract, etc. Patterson signed VERY cheap with no guarantees.
Tom, couldn’t hopper be getting better over time if his best year so far was 2007 and his only other year with a high obp was 2006? those are the two most recent data points.
Andy, it is possible but I don’t think it’s very likely. Anyone know what something like PECOTA thinks about Norris Hopper in 2008?
The weighted mean PECOTA for Hopper in 2008, from the book, is 288/334/342. His top comps include Alex Sanchez and John Wehner. Hopper turns 29 tomorrow (Monday), and since his game is almost all speed, getting better is a longshot. He has a really high batting average on balls in play, something hard to sustain.
Dunn is mastering the unclogging the bases philosophy. Yesterday he very nearly hit into 3 double plays.
Wow, and that PECOTA line is almost EXACTLY what Hopper’s career minor league line is:
Hopper (minors) – .289/.343/.335 (3407 AB)
Hopper (majors) – .332/.379/.396 (346 AB)
His stats in the minors are MUCH worse than in the majors — that’s odd — and it’s a MUCH larger sample.
And, as someone else pointed out, he’s 29, so he’s not in the “rapid improvement” portion of his career.
So, it concerns me that he’ll regress a lot.
I will say one thing on the positive side about Hopper though — he’s apparently fantastic at bunting for a hit, and that actually might cause him to have unusually high BABIP’s. And, maybe that is a skill he developed recently (meaning what we’ve seen from him might be actual improvement rather than a lucky fluke).
Who knows…
Actually, if he’s leading off vs. LHP’s all the time, I’m fine w/ that.
if only…
Freel
Keppinger
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey Jr.
Encarnacion
Votto
Ross
it won’t happen. *sniff*
I’d lead off EE.
“Corey seems to be better taking some pitches, trying to get on base, and he’s starting to bunt and go the other way,” says Baker.
Ain’t that the definition of ‘base clogging’?