Reds-Colored Glasses
I was listening to today’s game broadcast, and it struck my how blindly optimistic everyone is this time of year. If someone had a great year last year, we assume they’ll repeat it. If someone had a bad year, we hope they’ll improve. Nobody ever gives the first thought to the fact that “career years,” by definition, are better than all the other ones.
Jeff Brantley, for example, were talking about Jared Burton and Jeff Keppinger, and how great both were last year, and how much both will contribute this year. He and Marty - and even me, until I thought about it for a while - never even considered that either guy might regress to the mean. I’m not saying they will play worse, only that it’s possible. And this isn’t an attack on Brantley (there will be plenty of time for that - my wife has already banned the Reds from our car when he’s on). Nearly every broadcaster, writer, and fan, on every team, thinks the same way. I’m sure there’s a name for this logical blind spot. I just don’t know what it is.
Who do you think are the most likely Reds to fall from last year’s performance? My vote has to go to Keppinger. The good news is that even with a .400 SLG, he’s a very useful guy.
March 1st, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Phillips.
March 1st, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Keppinger down
Ross up
March 1st, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Easy one! Hopper!
March 1st, 2008 at 9:19 pm
For hitters I think Hatteberg and Hopper are the most likely to not have years like last year. Hatteberg have a 120 OPS+ at age 38. And Hopper is just nowhere near as good as his 94 OPS+
For pitchers I think Weathers is going to really fall off. and in the now-a-Red category I think Affeldt is not going to have the year he had last year.
March 1st, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Hopper - down
Castro and his 14 OPS+ - up
- he may even hit .200 this year!
March 1st, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Affeldt is the next Milton. Mark it down.
Also, Phillips will have a massive slump this year.
March 2nd, 2008 at 1:01 am
Affeldt may blow up, but his contract (1 year, moderate cash) is the big difference from Eric Milton. Milton was an albatross and a disaster. Affeldt, at worst, will be a bad bet.
March 2nd, 2008 at 1:04 am
Re: Hatteberg
I hadn’t noticed his home/road splits until I read my Prospectus book:
At GABP (212 PA)
.370 .436 .571 1007 OPS
On the road (205 PA):
.244 .351 .366 717 OPS
That’s absurd. He’s essentially useless on the road, but hits like Pujols at home.
March 2nd, 2008 at 1:27 am
two people have mentioned Phillips. And this is where things get complex.
Phillips hitting go down? It’s nothing special as it is. Phillips value comes in him being an all around player, defense, speed, and OK hitting. Speed and defense don’t really slump. His OPS+ the last two season has been 88 and 105 and I expect he’ll be somewhere between them this year
Is he going to regress to 88? I doubt it at his age and the fact that he’s only had 1 or 2 years of full time play.
I’m no Phillips (he’s one of my least favorite Reds) but if he goes much lower than he’s been as a Red…ugh.
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Keppinger’s numbers in the minors suggest that he’s a quality hitter. Hopper’s numbers in the minors suggest he shouldn’t be in the major leagues.
Keppinger (minors) - .320/.373/.419
Hopper (minors) - .289/.343/.335
I think Hopper is in line for a large dropoff. His numbers in the minors suggest he just isn’t that good.
As for Keppinger, I’ll stick w/ a comparison I threw out there last year — Keppinger is a young Mark Loretta — not a star, but a very good player who can hit (mostly for average, but with moderate power).
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:56 am
On the older end of the spectrum, I think you have to say that Weathers and Hatteberg are in line for big drop-offs.
Both guys have had career years (Weathers the last 3 years, Hatteberg the last 2), and they’re both 38 now.
They both have been fantastic, and I appreciate what they’ve done, but you just can’t expect more of the same from them.
In fact, I’d be inclined to trade either or both of them if they have some decent trade value. This might be the last time that is the case.
Hatteberg to the Mets? I hear Delgado is injured, and the Mets are undoubtedly in “win now” mode.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
I disagree about Weathers dropping off this year. For one thing, he’ll have a bit of a chip on his shoulder and will be extremely motivated to prove the Reds wrong for demoting him from the closer role.
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080229/SPT04/802290375
March 2nd, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Phillips went 30/30. I just don’t see that happening again. That’s what I meant. His defense will be fine, but I think he’ll really struggle at the plate as pitchers continue to make adjustments when facing him.
March 2nd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
And to show how minor league numbers are pretty indicative of major league success levels, look at Freel’s minor and major numbers. Almost dead on.
March 2nd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Freel’s spring training numbers are well above his norm except 2006. Has that the spring after the drunk and disorderly?
March 2nd, 2008 at 5:13 pm
I agree but I think that you have to look at age and experience. Burton is young. Is it really possible to peak at your first year of big league play? Probably not. I say Burton, Keppinger get better. Now Ross on the other hand could have already peaked since he has a little more experience and age.
Good point, but it you have to consider where they are in there career.
Question for you. Does Josh Roenicke (sp?) make the bullpen better and if so where does he fit in with Burton and Weathers, and Bray.
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 pm
You think Keppinger is going to be BETTER than .332/.400/.477??
Do you think the guy is destined for the Hall of Fame?
I’m a huge Keppinger fan, but improving on those stats is asking a LOT.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Monday game reality check:
Bullpen blows late lead, Reds lose.
The more things change…..
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Jeff Keppinger can play short, so that is different, but he kind of reminds me a bit of Jeff Conine when he first came up with the Marlins. Maybe it is a similar kind of build or background, as Conine kind of hung around for a long time also in the Royals minor leagues.
I could buy .285/.350/.400 from Keppinger with the added versatile bonus of being able to play quite a few positions.
At least that I what I hope happens.
With Levi Jared Burton, I sure hope it does not turn into a Todd Coffey situation.