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Maybe if you geeks would get your heads out of the ballpark and actually pick up a stat sheet once in a while, you’d notice these absolutely insane numbers: 
Adam Dunn after August 1 (47 G, 195 ABs)
.275 .441 .584 1025 OPS, 13 HRs, 43 BB (5 IBB), 39 K.
The 1025 OPS would’ve ranked 2nd in the league last year (Chipper, 1029). But look at those K/BB numbers – more walks than strikeouts? And a 45 HR pace? Jeepers.
Blogger/etc. “Mr. Redlegs” has noted the difference in Dunn’s late season approach a couple times, but I really don’t recall any mention in the mainstream press. And it certainly sounded like Dusty Baker’s somewhat-pointed “base clogging” comments were aimed at big #44. I guess Dusty could still be mad at Hee Seop Choi, but Reds fans are still having the same debates.
Dunn seems to have changed his approach. Maybe we should too.
It seemed to me that Dunn improved in his ability to foul off undesirable pitches last year. Obviously doing that improves the chances of him getting a pitch he can hit well. You know that if he continues that trend that Baker will take full credit.
Cool. Of course, the real question is, “New approach, or hot streak?” If this is the New Adam Dunn, give me more!
Interesting question. Dunn had only had more walks than strikeouts in two months in his career:
July 2002: 28 BB/26 K (1042 OPS)
April 2004: 28 BB/24 K (1288 OPS)
You asked the right question – are the decreased strikeout totals simply a function of the hot streak, or does a changed approach lead to better hitting and fewer Ks.
Given the sample size and the anecdotal evidence (as well as spring training optimism), I’m leaning toward hot streaks in years past, and a changed approach last year.
I do recall a Dunn quote where he said “something clicked” in the second half.. so perhaps you are correct and he has already changed his approach/philosophy. I certainly hope so.
I have decided Baker just likes to run his mouth about just about anything, and I think he gets off on saying controversial stuff. This is the kind of thing that might take heat off the ball club while getting himself in hot water with the fans when things get rough. I don’t really care why or what he says, I just want the team to produce, so I will reserve judgement for awhile.
Those stats are awesome! They actually strike me as Bonds-like.
As a secondary point, though, I really like what you said about getting out of the ballpark and looking at a stat sheet…
I know you said it in jest, but I think it illustrates a very valid point… You can watch tons of games — heck, you can watch EVERY game — and you can easily still be deceived about a lot of things.
Do you think you can tell the difference between someone who gets on base 31 times out of 100 (.310 OBP) from someone who gets on 38 times out of 100 (.380 OBP)? The difference is only 7 times out of 100.
Do you think you could tell someone with great range in the field from someone who hustles but has mediocre range?
Part of the premise of “Moneyball” (yes, I did read that book, and yes I did think it was a fascinating and insightful book) is that relying just on your eyes can actually MISlead you in some ways.
I don’t advocate a stats-only approach. But I do think stats can reveal things to you that even watching every single pitch of every game cannot.
I think that’s Moneyball right there –
1) Don’t trust your eyes.
2) Figure out what the market undervalues and get that.
Is Adam Dunn… Pat Burrell?
You keep asking that. The answer is: He’s Ryan Howard.
Wrong, he’s Pat Burrell.
Time to call a spade, a spade. Donkey is never going to change. He is who he is and that’s not bad but it’s not Ryan Howard.
Using the “Similarity Scores” methodology of Bill James as highlighted in The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106), which is observed by baseball-reference.com, I compared the careers of Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell.
To be fair to both players I only used stats from 2002-present, which starts us at Dunn’s first full season. (Burrell played 111 games in ‘00 and 155 in ‘01; Dunn played 66 in ‘01)
Career (2002-Present)
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
DUNN .247 .381 .514 .895
BURRELL .258 .371 .487 .858
Using the afformentioned “Similarity Score” methodology () under my explained parameters, I found that…
PAT BURRELL is 96.321% the hitter of ADAM DUNN
Out of curiosity, I looked to test the strength of the almightly OPS statistic and found that taking one player’s OPS as a %tile of the other’s…
PAT BURRELL is 95.866% the hitter of ADAM DUNN
If you trust the expert, Bill James, with his Similarity Score calculations, I believe it is safe to say that a strict OPS comparison is almost equally telling when observing hitters statistically.
I hope this expose into my evening’s utter boredom will help to settle this long-lasting debate. There you have it folks… Dunn is a better hitter than Pat Burrell… by about 4%.
If someone wants to try to apply this to a Dunn/Howard Comparison (which would be tougher, since Howard’s first full season was in 2006), that would be awesome, but I am tired and am going to bed now. haha.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with being similar to Pat Burrell. Burrell is a consistently undervalued and scapegoated member of his team.
Tip of the Reds cap to Pat Burrell for his major league success and being the player most like one of the most unique players ever in baseball. May he continue get on base and slug at a near Dunnian pace.
.268 .392 .584 (age 27)
.264 .386 .554 (age 27)
Yeah, completely different.
Dunn’s much more like this guy: .256 .400 .502 (age 30)
Who are you comparing there (post #12), Chris?
I’d have to say the Ryan Howard comparison seems more like wishing than anything. Howard’s career numbers right now are .291/.397/.610 — yikes! — and his home/road numbers are nearly identical. It’s not just his absurd home park.
Dunn so far is at .248/.381/.519 (career).
Burrell – .258/.367/.482 (career).
I’d have to say Dunn is more similar to Burrell than Howard.
But more encouragingly, Dunn’s top two most similar players of all time at age 27 are Darryl Strawberry and Jose Canseco, two guys who should’ve ended up in the HOF if not for drugs and, well, drugs.
That’s Howard, Dunn, and Burrell (in that order), 2007.
I think everyone wildly overrates Ryan Howard – the thing to remember is that he’s the same age as Dunn, yet has almost 2000 fewer ABs. Some of that was silliness in Philadelphia, but I’m not sure it’s fair to assume that 2006 is Howard’s baseline.
They fall in love with the HR and (especially) RBI totals, and ignore the similarities in their rate stats (or the fact that Howard struck out 20% more than even Dunn last year).
I think Howard is probably a 960 OPS guy, while Dunn’s about 940. Include the park factors, and I really don’t think there’s a substantial difference. Is Howard a better hitter? Probabaly a little. But not so big as perception would tell you (Howard was #5 in MVP voting last year; Dunn didn’t get a single vote).
The interesting thing about Burrell is how much better he got after turning 28.
I looked at BP’s PECOTA for both guys.
Some interesting stuff. First and foremost, is something they call “similarity scores,” which is a measure of how much the player is like others in history. They say that anything under 20 is “historically unique.” Dunn’s a 9, which is pretty doggone low, and which may explain why this question is either hard to answer or pointless. Howard’s a 30, and Burrell’s a 25. (Keppinger’s a 56).
Anyway, on to the 2008 projections:
Howard weighted mean: .273 .382 .575
Dunn weighted mean: .261 .389 .550
Burrell weighted mean: .263 .392 .519
Again, the AVG and OBP are similar for D & B, but Dunn’s SLG is so much higher that I think the comparison falls apart.
BP lists the 20 most comparable players, based not only on stats, but also including things like handed-ness and height/weight (as similar players tend to develop and age similarly).
Howard and Dunn have 7 common names on their list, which is pretty high:
Howard:
1 Mike Epstein
3 Calvin Pickering
5 Boog Powell
8 David Ortiz
10 Sam Horn
11 Jose Canseco
16 John Mayberry
Dunn:
1 Calvin Pickering
3 Mike Epstein
6 Sam Horn
9 John Mayberry
12 Jose Canseco
13 Boog Powell
15 David Ortiz
Only two of these guys show up on Burrell’s list:
Epstein (9) and Mayberry (15)
I’m not saying any of this is definitive, just an interesting bar debate.
Chris,
I believe it is more definitive than not. I don’t think that Dunn is quite Howard, but he is certainly more Howard than he is Burrell.
More importantly, I hope that Dunn’s 2nd half line becomes a viable norm for the remainder of his career. Here’s to hoping that he did change his approach and that it wasn’t just a hot streak. We shall soon find out!
On a side note: I failed to mention that my calculations last night needed no adjustment for position, given that it was a comparison of one LF to another.
Calvin Pickering? Sam Horn? Mike Epstein?
???
Why isn’t Anthony Munoz or Byron Leftwich on the list?
There’s only so many guys who’ve been over 6′5″ and 260 lbs.