Loading ...Both John Fay and C. Trent Rosecrans are reporting that the Reds are in discussions again with Oakland about obtaining Joe Blanton. The following is from John Fay:
The Reds and A’s definitely have talked. But the A’s are asking a lot for Joe Blanton — probably Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, plus Joey Votto and a third player. ….. The deal could happen if the A’s back off the price a bit.
Blanton appears to be a workhorse who will give you lots of innings. He will also give up a lot of hits and will not strike out that many batters. He is, however, a known commodity, and an improvement over the question marks — Belisle, Affeldt, Bailey, and Volquez — at the end of our rotation. Moving from the AL to the NL may be enough to offset him moving from a pitcher’s park in Oakland to a hitter’s park in Cincinnati.
The big question is: would you give up either Bailey or Cueto, plus Votto and another prospect for him? I think that I may pull the trigger on this one. Blanton would give us three solid rotation arms, with Belisle, Volquez, Affeldt, and either Bailey or Cueto for the last two spots in the rotation. We still have Hatteberg available for the bulk of ABs at 1B to back fill for Votto.
I’d still be on the lookout for a CF with the ideal of finally moving Dunn to 1B where I feel he belongs, both Brian Anderson and Coco Crisp could be available. I think the Blanton move could move them into contention in the NL Central next season without completely mortgaging the future.
Tom, I have a number of concerns with this…
a) I don’t know if it’s a one year phenomenon, but Blanton’s road ERA last year was 5.11.
b) Dunn was a disaster at 1B, but all reports. Why think he’ll improve this time around?
c) After this season, you could be w/o Dunn or Griffey’s bats, Hatteberg is 38 and while he’s been much better than I ever believed he would be for the Reds, how much longer can he perform at this level? Who picks up the offensive slack after this season if you trade the #2 rated bat in the minor league system?
I’m just not sold…but I might be being overly cautious.
Oakland is a STRONG pitcher’s park, and Blanton’s numbers have benefitted a LOT from that.
Joe Blanton
2005 home – 3.35 ERA
2005 road – 3.73 ERA
2006 home – 4.52 ERA
2006 road – 5.12 ERA
2007 home – 2.69 ERA
2007 road – 5.11 ERA
Career home – 3.55 ERA
Career road – 4.66 ERA
So he does have value, of course, but we need to be viewing him as more of a 4.6 ERA guy than a 4.1 ERA guy, IMO.
I wouldn’t trade Cueto or Bailey for Blanton, straight-up. Neither one. No chance.
Blanton is a pretty good pitcher, age 28, signed for $3.8 million. Not bad.
Cueto and Bailey are both 21, and we’ve got them at basically league-minimum. You need to get as many of these types of guys as you can, and when you get them, you KEEP them! You don’t flip them for a league-average innings eater just b/c he’s “proven.”
My only concern is, why would you make that deal for blanton but not for Bedard? Bedard is a lefty that strikes out everybody, you could have Harang and Bedard in the top 10 in k’s every year. I don’t like blanton like Bedard he’s built on that park in Oakland and could likely turn into Eric Milton in Cincy.
Tom,
I’m usually on board with what you say, but not this time. Blanton’s salary is not out of line with his performance, but knowing how Billy Beane does business, this is just the kind of trade he lives for….gives up guys moving into salary time for young talent.
I agree with Bill’s comment…we’re going to need these bats and I have to think one of these two arms will be around long after Blanton’s low-K, high-hit arm is seeking jobs as a journeyman.
I know we have to “try to win” sometime, instead of always playing for the future…but, this time I’d rather we filled holes with lower-priced free agents and sign BIG name players than trade highly talented youngsters for more or less role players. Blanton’s more than an ordinary role player, but he wouldn’t be an anchor on this team.
I would love to have Blanton. He’s been a very dependable, winning pitcher in a MUCH tougher league for pitchers.
But the asking price as described by Fay is too high.
Way too high. Votto straight up – probably. Bailey or Cueto straight up – probably not. Both of them, plus another guy? No way.
As for why not Bedard, but Blanton…didn’t the Orioles require that Jay Bruce be part of the deal for Bedard?
Yeah, that asking price is Bedard/Santana stuff. I would like Blanton as well, but I would not give up three major league ready solid prospects for him. I would like to see a deal done because I think a rotation of Harang/Arroyo/Blanton and two of our possible four or five young arms would be difficult to beat. I think Affeldt will be in the pen (they will talk some noise about earning a rotation spot, but if they do sign an established starter it’s “hello bullpen, Jeremy”). With Belisle and Affeldt being long men, Weathers and Burton setting up and Cordero closing, I would feel pretty good about our staff. Maybe I would give up Bailey and Votto for this. I would have done it a little quicker if we still had Cantu to play first. I think the change in leagues would work well for Blanton, his contract isn’t prohibitive, and our staff would be solid. But I don’t think I would give up three young potential studs for him. Maybe Bailey and Roenicke or Stubbs. I think you could still appeal to Mr. Beane by offering him some not-quite-ready for prime time talent in exchange for Blanton.
Bailey or Cueto plus Dorn or Valakia and one of Freel, Coffey Hatteberg. I’ll do that. No way do I ship of Bailey or Cueto plus Votto. That’s just too much.
Not sure if this is just Fay talking out of his hat. The A’s wouldn’t let the deal get hung up on Votto. They don’t have any place for him to play.
OK, the A’s might not be interested in Votto anyway with Barton (who is younger, I think. I could be wrong on that). However, Chavez is on the decline at third. How about Bailey and EE for Blanton? I guess that would put Keppinger or Freel at third. I really don’t think the A’s would value Votto the same way we would. He’s not a natural outfielder, so I don’t know how much use he would be to Oakland unless it was bait for another trade.
No way would I give up Votto for Blanton, No need to trade right now and more opportunity could be around later in the year. Let the young guns have a shot. Blanton is not a premier pitcher and limited upside.
There is absolutely no way I would trade Votto, Bailey or Cueto straight up for Joe Blanton. Not even a remote one.
His 106 ERA+ translates to a 4.40 ERA in Cincinnati. Given our horrible defense compared to Oaklands good defense, I honestly have a hard time seeing Blanton put up a better than 4.50 ERA in our ballpark.
There is no way I would give up premiere talent for ~league average pitching. Not a chance.
Right on Doug. They don’t even get to sniff our top prospects. If Beane has shown anything this offseason, he’s willing to deal for players who are still a couple years away from the bigs. In that light, I could see dealing quantity from our second tier–Maloney or Volquez plus a Stubbs/Francisco/Frazier. If the Santana and Bedard deals tell us anything, it’s that we should be stingy with our offer.
Agreed. At this point I would like to see the Reds hold the line unless an offer blows them away. While I’d love to win now, I think at this point I’m happy to just “compete” this year and get guys like Bruce, Votto, Bailey, and Cueto a full year of seasoning.
If we can come back in the offseason after 08 and use Griffey’s salary to fill a need via FA (assuming one of the youngsters appear overmatched at the MLB level) or we use that money to secure Dunner long term.
Reds in 09!
Doug nailed it in my opinion. Blanton would likely put up an ERA in the 4.50 or 4.60 range in our ballpark with our defense, I think.
That’s fine… that has some value… but come on… Do you really not think Bailey could do that same thing this year?
I am perfectly happy to wait if it means the Reds are good longer. 6 more years of Bailey (or Cueto) is SO much more valuable than 3 more years of Blanton. (I’m estimating… not sure I have the years exactly right… but I mean # of years til free agency.)
I would give Cueto and Freel for Blanton heck i would take Chavez and put EE in. If Oakland eats all his salary.
ryhmes with stanton
My opinion Reds need to establish some consistency and team chemistry. Lets keep the manager and GM for more than a couple of years. Lets keep and develop our young core talent. Lets have a team fans can identify with. Cleveland is in the same market and same STATE as the Reds and look how well they do. And for God’s sake pull back the fences another 20 feet or whatever. Home runs are fun but the DONT win championships.
A bit off-topic, but what do you all think of these 2 trades:
1) EE for Jonathan Sanchez
(Giants need a 3B… Sanchez is a high-K guy, and lefty, which I love, and coming off a bad year… I really like EE but you can put Keppinger at 3B now and I think in 2-3 years Frazier will be the man.)
2) Freel for Murton
(We’d probably have to eat a little $$ but the Cubs seem weirdly fixated on getting infielders, and Murton seems to be expendable for them and undervalued… and the dude can hit. .296/.365/.455 career in the majors. Find him 300 AB’s this year in RF and LF… rest Griffey or Dunn vs. LHP’s… and in a year if Griffey walks we have his replacement.)
dan i like it
that would make a spot for Keppy
and i like murton
Its extremely disappointing that the Reds are seriously considering this deal. A soft tosser in GAB, yeah, that’s brilliant. How many Eric Milton experiments do we need to try before we wake up…..the fact that this is a serious conversation is depressing. First, they throw away Hamilton for a lotto ticket, now they’re going to throw away more quality players for a soft tosser, who will get shelled in GAB.
I wouldn’t trade Votto straight up for Blanton. The only SANE deal would be one and ONLY one of the aforementioned pitchers for Blanton….and I still wouldn’t do it. But at least it wouldn’t be insane…..
Who’s behind this? Jockety? Did Beane grease his palm to trick the front office into this deal? Or is it Krivsky, bitter about them hiring Jockety, so now he’s trying to sabotoge the franchise.
The Reds had a shot at contending this year and they declined to take it by not dealing for Bedard. Blanton won’t help them now, or in the future. Votto will help them NOW.
I wouldn’t trade for Blanton, period. His PECOTA projections (and in pitcher-friendly Oakland) look like this:
11-10 4.40 ERA 1.39 WHIP
Here’s Belisle (in GABP)
9-10 4.51 ERA 1.42 WHIP
While we’re at it, here’s Volquez (in GABP)
8-9 4.57 ERA 1.44 WHIP
So anyone who supports this ask yourself this: Would you trade any of the Big 4 prospects for essentially a more-expensive Belisle or Volquez?
I might give the Athletics a couple low-A prospects, but that’s it. Blanton is NOT worth it.
And remember, Jocketty traded Haren, Daric Barton and Kiko Calero to Beane for Mulder. That worked out well…
I love the idea of bringing Blanton to the Reds, but……that price is way to high. I think Beane is taking WK’s temperature, not the other way around. I say a 3 or 4 package of AA or lower guys that have high upside, but Beane probably won’t do that.
WK has done an OUTSTANDING job this offseason, and I can’t wait until spring training.
Bold prediction, Cueto and Maloney spend the entire year in AAA….. as they should.
One of you guys out there help me on this please:
If the A’s ARE asking for Votto with one of these young pitchers plus whatever else (if it’s more than that, I say forget it anyway), why did the Reds dump Cantu for…….uh, nothing?
I’m obviously ignorant on this one. Somebody enlighten me, seriously! Was the guy some sort of cancer that we, the average fan, don’t know about because his upside (especially considering his price) seemed well worth keeping around at least for a year to give him a chance if we aren’t going to keep Votto.
Not that I don’t think that Hattie and Kepp (probably) wouldn’t do a decent job over on 1st, but come on, all of you know what I mean! The Hat isn’t going to be around for anything but a few more years.
Don’t get me wrong. I know that decent 1B aren’t THAT hard to come by, but still……..
Oh. Never mind about that last post.
I just went over to the Reds official site and saw that they just signed Craig Wilson to a minor league contract.
Goodbye Votto. I guess this deal is done. Question is: Who’s going with him?
If we walk out of this with Bailey and Cueto intact, it’ll be a miracle……..
Reds fans crack me up, always overvalueing prospects and never willing to try to win now.
Blanton is a quality big league starting pitcher, a category the Reds are woefully lacking in. Yes, he pitches is a good ballpark for pitchers, but he also pitches in a bad LEAGUE for pitchers, and on a bad team.
And yet he won 14 games last year. No, the Reds couldn’t use a guy like that!! Not when we have NEXT YEAR to worry about!
Here’s a suggestion:
Put away your slide rules and quit spending so much time analyzing Algebraball (Pecota, Replacement Value, etc) and look for Baseball players.
That’s what Blanton is.
Dude, this isn’t slide rule stuff, these are basic facts (I’m recopying from above):
Joe Blanton
2005 home – 3.35 ERA
2005 road – 3.73 ERA
2006 home – 4.52 ERA
2006 road – 5.12 ERA
2007 home – 2.69 ERA
2007 road – 5.11 ERA
Career home – 3.55 ERA
Career road – 4.66 ERA
The guy is durable, and probably around league-average. I don’t see how he is POSSIBLY worth even ONE of our better prospects.
Would you rather have…
Blanton, age 28, a tad better than average, under control for 3 years (I think) for $3.8 million…
or…
A 21-year-old (Bailey or Cueto) potential stud (granted, not a sure thing) under team control for 6 years (I think), for something like $400K?
Have patience… we didn’t develop these two potential studs just so we could flip them for league-averageness.
And remember, that 3.8 million will just go up the next couple years because of arbitration. That’s why Beane wants to dump Blanton. He’s starting to get expensive.
Either way, I don’t think much of Krivsky, but I don’t think he’d be dumb enough to trade Bailey, Cueto or Votto.I think two or three lower-level guys can get this deal done.
Dan:
As I said earlier in the thread, I think the asking price as reported by Fay was too much.
My comments were in response to the line of thought that Blanton, my translation, ain’t worth a crap.
Put Blanton in the NL and you can knock half a run off of his ERA, home or away. And he will get you a ton of quality innings and 15+ wins. There is real value in that.
I would definitely give up EITHER Bailey or Cueto for Blanton, not both, and if needed, I would throw in another prospect from around the A ball level. Travis Wood, perhaps?
If the A’s would actually agree to do that deal, which I think is questionable, the Reds would be foolish not to do it.
Tampa Red,
You realize that the hit Blanton would take from pitching in GABP instead of Oakland would trump any decrease in his ERA realized by changing leagues, right?
He’d likely have an ERA around 4.50. Homer is quite likely to post an ERA close to that, and it won’t cost us Votto. NO WAY IN HELL do I make this deal for what Fay is suggesting.
Thank you, Doug! I could not agree more.
I posted basically the same sort of comment (Bailey’s probably as good as Blanton now) over on John Fay’s blog, to which some commenter replied “LMAO.”
I’m a bit new to the lingo of the internets, but I can only assume that “LMAO” stands for “Listen man… astute observation!”
I agree that a combo of Bailey or Cueto and Votto is way to much. I am a little nervous about Blantons numbers to when you look at his era on the road, but Bronson Arroyo benefited very nicely since coming to the NL, so maybe Blanton could to
Even though we would be giving up a lot, I feel like the only chance to be in contention this year is to get a guy like Blanton. If we can get a dependable pitcher without giving up Bruce, I say do it because next year we may not have Griffey or Dunn.
How does Blanton get people out? If he gives up a bunch of fly balls, then there is no way he should pitch in Great American considering he doesn’t strike out anyone.
That should be called the Eric Milton rule.
Yes, of course I realize that GABP inflates ERA Doug. And I love your website and I look at it almost daily.
But having said that, the Reds will NEVER get out of their current cycle of losing as long as they have your mentality. It’s always next year, and the year after.
And then next year comes, and the Reds have filled one hole and another opens up. The Reds are only guaranteed Griffey and Dunn for 2008. After this year, the OF becomes a crap shoot. And those are only the holes we now about TODAY.
If the Reds can somehow pry Blanton out of the A’s grasp for one near-ready prospect and a lower-level prospect or two, they need to make that trade.
There is a window in 2008. No one is promised tomorrow.
In response to who ever says the Red’s need to focus on winning now (pro-blanton trade) rather sitting tight with their prospects obviously have no idea how good the Red’s top prospects are. They have 2 of the top 10 prospects in the Majors in Bruce and Bailey. Votto and Cueto are top 50 prospects also. The case can be made the Cueto is just as good as Bailey. He is one of the most underrated pitching prospects in baseball and maybe the best under the radar prospect. The best part is, all four of them are if not Major league ready, then right on the cusp. I’d much rather let these guys blossom into what they possibly could be (2 pitching studs, a man-child of an outfielder, and an above average stick at first), then throw them away for a soft tosser with no outpitch who would most likely meet his demise at the pathetic excuse for a MLB ballpark known as Great American Ballpark.
(Let the barrage of “there’s no guarentee in prospects” comments, and the like, commence)