Batting Order
I think one of the interesting questions entering into this season is how Dusty Baker will set up the Reds batting order. I really don’t envy him this task, since I believe it will be difficult. Given our expected starting lineup, we really don’t have anyone who fits nicely into the top two positions and most of our best hitters are LH. Below is the best lineup possible as calculated by the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool when fed the Baseball Prospectus Pecota projections for the upcoming season.
Best Reds Lineup 5.043 Runs Per Game Name OBA SLG Votto .357 .494 Dunn .388 .549 Griffey .350 .480 Encarnacion .356 .493 Bruce .336 .512 Phillips .325 .444 Gonzalez .315 .424 Ross .310 .448 Pitcher .177 .188
That’s food for thought. Below is how I’d line them up.
My Reds Lineup 5.011 Runs Per Game Name OBA SLG Encarnacion .356 .493 Votto .357 .494 Dunn .388 .549 Griffey .350 .480 Bruce .336 .512 Phillips .325 .444 Ross .310 .448 Gonzalez .315 .424 Pitcher .177 .188
It’s not going easy, we have some good hitters, they just don’t line up with the traditional roles for the positions in the batting order. So what do you think? How would you set the batting order given the eight players listed above?
February 2nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
I am not sure what I would do with the lineup, but I wonder about the leadoff spot. It sure would be nice to see a traditional guy with speed and a knack for getting on base. Also, I am not basing this off any statistics, but it just looks like we have a surplus of guys that should be 5th in the lineup type hitters. Last, I like putting Phillips in the 6 hole. Because he takes such an aggressive approach at the plate, this drop in the order may benefit him by seeing more fastballs.
February 2nd, 2008 at 1:29 pm
The only reason I wouldn’t use your suggested lineup is that Encarnacion has proven over the last two years he can hit with two outs and men on base. I think I would probably just use Pinto’s lineup since the computer says it will produce the most runs and they don’t have a given lead-off man.
February 2nd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
What this immediately says to me is that Hopper is going to get playing time based on the perceived need for a more typical leadoff hitter with speed, bunting ability, and no power. And/or Keppinger will get more-than-insignificant time at SS.
I do think that it would be unfortunate to have to put EdE in the leadoff spot. Alex said it best. Short-term patch that could screw up his hitting approach again, which seems like he’s susceptible to.
I hadn’t thought about the lineup itself at all until you brought it up; just who would make the team. It’s a very tough question.
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
The Baseball Musings post also got me to thinking about the lineup. I’m glad to see you plugged in Bruce (my recollection is that Pinto was using Freel). I think your “Best Reds Lineup” is the lineup I’d go with. It’s too bad that Phillips can’t get on base at a better rate because he’d be a more natural fit at the top of the lineup.
My guess is that Dusty will have Phillips batting 1st or 2nd.
February 2nd, 2008 at 9:09 pm
I know he’s a -er- will be a rookie, but why not lead off Bruce? He hits triples and doubles by the barrel-full.
February 3rd, 2008 at 12:58 am
Wow, Jay Bruce is going to have the second highest slugging percentage on our team. That’s pretty good forecasting considering THE GUY HAS YET TO SWING AT A MAJOR LEAGUE PITCH.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:28 am
Of course, it was forecasting made without randomly CAPITALIZING parts of a sentence, so I give it the advantage here.
February 3rd, 2008 at 10:40 am
If Encarnacion is the Reds leadoff hitter to start the season he’ll be back at Louisville by Memorial Day.
C’mon Tom, I hope you’re just joking about that.
Since I’ve criticized your lineup, it is only fair that I post mine, so fire away:
Votto/Hatteburg
Phillips
Griffey
Dunn
Encarnacion
Bruce
Gonzo
Ross
Of course, when Freel and/or Keppinger is in the starting lineup, that will change:
Freel
Phillips
Griffey
Dunn
EE
Votto/Hatteburg
Gonzo
Ross
Kepp
Phillips
Griffey
Dunn
EE
Votto/Hatteburg
Bruce
Ross
February 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 am
I see a lot of Ks in that line-up!
One big problem, is that Donkey, maybe griff, are the only guys in this line-up that make pitchers work…
Bruce .336 .512
Gonzalez .315 .424
Griffey .350 .480
Phillips .325 .444
Dunn .388 .549
Encarnacion .356 .493
Votto .357 .494
Pitcher .177 .188
Ross .310 .448
I hope some of these names change before opening day.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
As if Brandon Phillips will be anyplace lower than 4th.
February 3rd, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Votto.
Dunn.
EE.
Griffey.
Bruce.
Phillips.
Ross.
Gonzalez.
Pitcher.
February 3rd, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Well, this is all very interesting speculation. Most people have had a hard time even predicting who would be on the field the afternoon before a game, much less the lineup. That is over the course of the last 2 yrs. I can already see that there will be platoons all over the place, and a different lineup every night. Gotta rest those important names, can’t play a day game after a nighter. What else, is there a lefty pitching? Forget it.
February 3rd, 2008 at 5:32 pm
I’d think Edwin would be wasted at the top of the line-up. If I was writing out the cards I’d probably do it like this(going off of Bruce in Center):
Votto
Gonzalez
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
EE
Bruce
Ross
Belizzle
Now everyone take a collective sigh that I don’t actually fill out line-up cards.
Although if Bruce is out of the picture for whatever Krivskian reasoning…
Freel/Hopper
Votto/Hatteberg/El Keppitan
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
EE
Ross
Gonzalez
Harangatang
February 3rd, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Off-topic but it seems the Indians are looking to deal C. C. Sabathia if he isn’t interested in signing an extension. Can the Reds be a player and is he worth it after his post season meltdown making one wonder about his big game dependability?
February 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 pm
EE
Bruce
Phillips
Dunn
Griffey
Votto
Gonzo
Ross
Pitcher
February 4th, 2008 at 3:36 am
I wouldn’t see the Reds as players for C.C. There is no way the Reds would be able to outbid in years and dollars what other teams will be offering.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
I really like Phillips at #1.
Phillips
Votto
Griffey
Dunn
EE
Bruce
Gonzalez
Dontrelle Willis. It happened on Xbox.
Ross
Kep or Freeeel at the top if they are in the lineup.
February 4th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Very tricky stuff, but here’s one:
Votto
Phillips
Griffey
EnCarnacion
Dunn
Bruce
Gonzalez
Ross
Pitcher
Not that I want to shoo the big guys out but my goal lineup is:
Hopper (maybe Stubbs someday)
Keppinger
Votto/Bruce
Phillips
Dunn or Griffey (keeping one - would have been Hamilton, then spots swapped with Votto)
Encarnacion
Bruce/Votto
Ross
Hopper and Kepp (and Votto especially) have small data sets so this year will help figure things out. For now though, Hopper is the most 1-like hitter and Keppinger is the most 2-like hitter on the squad. Votto will have to hit lefties respectively, to hit 3rd.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I feel like no matter what line up you use, Phillips & EE has to break up the Griffey/Dunn/Bruce combo. That way it keeps managers from bringing in a lefty for two batters. I also see a potential platoon in Center for the first month or so if Bruce makes the team. I see something like this:
Against RH Pitchers:
1.Votto
2.Phillips
3.Griffey
4.EE
5.Dunn
6.Bruce
7.Gonzo
8.Ross/Valentin
Against Lefties:
1.Freel/Hopper
2.Votto/Keppinger
3.Griffey
4.Phillips
5.Dunn
6.EE
7.Gonzo
8.Ross
February 4th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Gonzo
Ross
pitcher
This situation kills rallies and if Gonzo leads off the inning, well….. Ten pitches later we are back on field.
February 4th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
I am really afraid Hopper/Kepp are going to play because they are the most prototypical 1 and 2 hitters. The best players need to play. Forget about position in the lineup…hit Griffey first, I don’t care, just make sure Bruce is in the lineup!
February 4th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Why bother commenting, if you don’t care? The idea behind the post is to create, based on the names given, the batting order that you believe will be most productive.
With that said, why would you be afraid if hopper/kepp play often? All they did was produce when given the opportunity.
February 5th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Afraid of Keppinger playing? Him playing over say…Gonzo doesn’t scare me at all, kinda makes me grin.
February 6th, 2008 at 12:34 am
i personally think it should be this
1. Keppinger ss
2. Votto 1b
3. Phillips 2B
4. Dunn LF
5. Griffey RF
6. Encarnacion 3B
7. Bruce CF
8. Valentine or Ross C
i like keppy better than gonzo
i wouldn’t mind seeing Gonzo play third maybe but then it leaves Eddy short
trade gonzo or bench him
February 6th, 2008 at 8:47 am
I honestly believe that if Hopper or Freel is not starting our best leadoff option is Votto. He has decent speed and good plate discipline. He is not ideal, but considering what we have he is the third best option out there and he is better the freel and Hopper when it comes to OBP.
February 6th, 2008 at 10:08 am
You know, Kurt, I was kicking around the same idea about Votto in the leadoff spot myself. I was remembering how successful it was when Hatteburg was in that spot, and he is hardly a prototypical leadoff guy. I see the difference being that Hatte is a vet who is very plate disciplined and will take a lot of pitches. Besides drawing your fair share of walks, it allows you to drive up pitch counts and lets the guys behind you get a better look at the pitcher. Those benefits sort of make up for the lack of on base havoc that a speedster can generate. Call me old school, but having a guy on who is a threat to run disrupts the flow and for some pitchers that’s deadly (that’s one of the chief reasons I love the stolen base, regardless of how invaluable others portray it). I see Votto similar to Hatteburg in that regard, but I’m not so sure he is there experience wise yet. With that being said, we really don’t have that many great options at the top of the order, so Votto may have to split time with Hopper in that spot. I guess it wouldn’t hurt to use Hatteburg there every once in a while either.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:01 am
For those suggesting Gonzo should be #2, thats just ridiculously stupid. It’s easier to construct the lineup backwards.
Ross - 8
Gonzo - 7
For 6th, it gets more difficult. I’d say Bruce will probably get the time there because he’s a rookie, although he will be moved up mid-season. He’s also a lefty and splits helps splits up lefties higher in the lineup.
For #5, EE makes a lot of sense. He’s known as a “clutch” hitter and will probably improve. His AVG is decent, and his gap power helps scoring runs.
#4 is Probably Griffey. I’d rather have Dunn #3, so it works.
#2 is Phillips, which helps split the lefties. He’s a low OBP, but a good hitter.
#1 Has to be Votto, and that fits. High OBP guy. He should see some fastballs. The only downside is that its a decent amt of power to waste, but ask Soriano/Rollins about that.
Final Lineup is….
Votto (L)
Phillips (R)
Dunn (L)
Griffey (L)
EE (R)
Bruce (L)
Gonzo (R)
Ross (R)
Pitcher
This is the optimal lineup with the best balance. It has the best hitters that fit their roles. I could also see EE and BP swapping, but I prefer EE as a cleanup type hitter and BP as the table setter. Tampa Red had it right, but I made the list w/out using outside suggestions.