Agreed. They could do worse than Fogg but I’m not sure what there is to be gained by signing him. Multi-year, many dollars, flyball pitcher in a hitter’s park…lots of reasons not to do this, not many reasons to do it other than “he’s a veteran.”
If we’re talking more than two years at ~$13mil, no way. That said, here’s a guy who pitched in a hitter friendly park, takes the ball every 5th day, and gives up a lot of hits per inning. He’s Matt Belisle in 5 years. I’d like to see this rotation 7 deep to absorb the growing pains from these rookies. Unless Krivdawg is a genius, it’s not likely that Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, and Volquez will all pan out.
I am probabaly in the minority here, but this doesn’t seem like the worst move for us. I would def. rather have fogg than lieber, colon, etc. He throws a good sinker with an average breaking ball (slider/cutter) and a good chage up when he’s on. He knows his way around the NL and if we could get him for 2 yrs. 8 million, i would be fine. I wouldn’t want to go three years with him though. He is a work horse, that is more consistent than say Kyle Lohse. We need to acquire another proven arm so there is not as much pressure to rush cueto and volquez.
Now one guy had a lucky ERA (Fogg) and one guy had a very unlucky ERA (Belisle).
Looking at this article by Jay over at Recondite Baseball, he broke down the league average rotation by FIP (fielding independent ERA). Here is what his results concluded:
So Belisle actually was better FIP wise than your average #3 pitcher in the NL, while Fogg was between a #4 and a #5 pitcher last year.
Now yes, Fogg does pitch in Coors but he wouldn’t be getting much of a favor done by moving to Cincinnati. Belisle is a much stronger option than Fogg for Cincinnati, projects to be better next year, isn’t going to cost a rumored 21 million for 3 years (can you say Eric Milton part 2?) and we already have Belisle.
To be fair, Fogg spent time in Colorado, and that will always balloon ERA. I don’t think that it would be such a bad idea to sign him, but he needs to be given a deal like Towers was given, very incentive laden. I think the two are fairly comparable. It’s hard not to overpay for pitching right now, but if we can get a Towers-type deal for him, I don’t think it is so bad. I don’t think all of our new blood is going to pan out (at least not this year) and we could really do worse than Fogg. It’s not like Kriv is not trying to land the big fish, and nothing says that this may not be an attempt to collect some arms for a bigger trade. It could also just be speculative talk.
Coosrs doesn’t inflate ERA like it used to, and Denver had an excellent defense. His ERA+, which accounts for park but not defense, is still below average.
Personally I am totally against Fogg signing here. I think it would be like re-signing Eric Milton all over again. Hernandez, Leiber or Tony Armas Jr. are who I am hoping for if we are not going to be doing a trade to get a pitcher. Fogg did pitch in Coors but like someone else pointed out he had good defense behind him and still had in my opinion a bad ERA. Some of the guys that had injuries last year might be a better risk with heavy incentive deals.
Well something inflated his ERA at Coors. His splits away are significantly better. I’m not saying that I would pay a lot for him, but an incentive laden deal with the thought of continuing to deal for pitching is not such a bad thing. If he makes it to Spring Training, give him an opportunity to earn a spot, not just give him one, and let the competition begin. He has a good sinker. If our staff to start the year includes Josh Fogg as a number 4 or 5, I will not be too disappointed.
Regardless of the money, Fogg is still a below-replacement level pitcher. If that is the case, the Reds would be equally well served sitting on the money they would spend on him and try all the minor league pitchers in the world in the number five slot in the rotation. The results would be similar for essentially no cost. Fogg has no upside, no potential, and has never shown the ability to be even league-average. He would be a worse signing than Milton because at least Milton had shown flashes in his career of actually being good; Fogg has never flashed.
Don’t like it…Who needs another righty whiffle ball pitcher. Get Cliff Lee, get a guy who will be worth it. Give the A’s something for Lenny Dinardo, the best ground ball pitcher in the AL. Given Beane’s interest in selling, we could probably give some AA guys for him.
I do admit I am baised towards a lefty.
I would rather give Tom Shearn the league min than pay 7 mil a year for Fogg.
I agree w/ you, Dave, that there’s a decent chance Shearn could be as good as Fogg. Maybe a little better? I don’t know, but we do know one thing — Shearn would be a TON cheaper.
I also agree that I’d like to get a lefty in the rotation… preferably young, and a strikeout pitcher.
I keep bringing this guy up, but look at Jonathan Sanchez’s stats. I think he’s going to be really good, and (maybe lucky for us?) he’s coming off a fairly bad year:
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
RN Exclusives!
The Big Board -- In-Depth Reds Organizational Depth Chart (updated 2/23/10)
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Agreed. They could do worse than Fogg but I’m not sure what there is to be gained by signing him. Multi-year, many dollars, flyball pitcher in a hitter’s park…lots of reasons not to do this, not many reasons to do it other than “he’s a veteran.”
If we’re talking more than two years at ~$13mil, no way. That said, here’s a guy who pitched in a hitter friendly park, takes the ball every 5th day, and gives up a lot of hits per inning. He’s Matt Belisle in 5 years. I’d like to see this rotation 7 deep to absorb the growing pains from these rookies. Unless Krivdawg is a genius, it’s not likely that Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, and Volquez will all pan out.
I am probabaly in the minority here, but this doesn’t seem like the worst move for us. I would def. rather have fogg than lieber, colon, etc. He throws a good sinker with an average breaking ball (slider/cutter) and a good chage up when he’s on. He knows his way around the NL and if we could get him for 2 yrs. 8 million, i would be fine. I wouldn’t want to go three years with him though. He is a work horse, that is more consistent than say Kyle Lohse. We need to acquire another proven arm so there is not as much pressure to rush cueto and volquez.
But what good is a “proven arm” if all he’s done is prove that he’ll probably pitch a lot, give up a lot of hits and HR’s, and post an ERA close to 5?
What’s the alternative? Putting Belisle in the 3 spot if they don’t sign anyone else? Belisle and Fogg are both back-of-the-rotation guys.
Who else can they get right now?
Belisle and Fogg are not both back of the rotation guys.
Belisle 2007 FIP – 4.54 (5.32 ERA)
Fogg 2007 FIP – 5.17 (4.94 ERA)
Now one guy had a lucky ERA (Fogg) and one guy had a very unlucky ERA (Belisle).
Looking at this article by Jay over at Recondite Baseball, he broke down the league average rotation by FIP (fielding independent ERA). Here is what his results concluded:
Pitcher – FIP ERA
#1 – 3.69
#2 – 4.25
#3 – 4.69
#4 – 4.98
#5 – 5.83
So Belisle actually was better FIP wise than your average #3 pitcher in the NL, while Fogg was between a #4 and a #5 pitcher last year.
Now yes, Fogg does pitch in Coors but he wouldn’t be getting much of a favor done by moving to Cincinnati. Belisle is a much stronger option than Fogg for Cincinnati, projects to be better next year, isn’t going to cost a rumored 21 million for 3 years (can you say Eric Milton part 2?) and we already have Belisle.
Oops, forgot to link to the article for the rotation by FIP by Josh at Recondite Baseball.
http://reconditebaseball.blogspot.com/2007/10/nl-rotations-by-fip-for-2007.html
There we go.
To be fair, Fogg spent time in Colorado, and that will always balloon ERA. I don’t think that it would be such a bad idea to sign him, but he needs to be given a deal like Towers was given, very incentive laden. I think the two are fairly comparable. It’s hard not to overpay for pitching right now, but if we can get a Towers-type deal for him, I don’t think it is so bad. I don’t think all of our new blood is going to pan out (at least not this year) and we could really do worse than Fogg. It’s not like Kriv is not trying to land the big fish, and nothing says that this may not be an attempt to collect some arms for a bigger trade. It could also just be speculative talk.
Coosrs doesn’t inflate ERA like it used to, and Denver had an excellent defense. His ERA+, which accounts for park but not defense, is still below average.
Personally I am totally against Fogg signing here. I think it would be like re-signing Eric Milton all over again. Hernandez, Leiber or Tony Armas Jr. are who I am hoping for if we are not going to be doing a trade to get a pitcher. Fogg did pitch in Coors but like someone else pointed out he had good defense behind him and still had in my opinion a bad ERA. Some of the guys that had injuries last year might be a better risk with heavy incentive deals.
Well something inflated his ERA at Coors. His splits away are significantly better. I’m not saying that I would pay a lot for him, but an incentive laden deal with the thought of continuing to deal for pitching is not such a bad thing. If he makes it to Spring Training, give him an opportunity to earn a spot, not just give him one, and let the competition begin. He has a good sinker. If our staff to start the year includes Josh Fogg as a number 4 or 5, I will not be too disappointed.
…or maybe we should just sign the humidor…
his future has always looked foggy
Regardless of the money, Fogg is still a below-replacement level pitcher. If that is the case, the Reds would be equally well served sitting on the money they would spend on him and try all the minor league pitchers in the world in the number five slot in the rotation. The results would be similar for essentially no cost. Fogg has no upside, no potential, and has never shown the ability to be even league-average. He would be a worse signing than Milton because at least Milton had shown flashes in his career of actually being good; Fogg has never flashed.
Hope my last comment doesn’t effect my autograph value, GC.
Don’t like it…Who needs another righty whiffle ball pitcher. Get Cliff Lee, get a guy who will be worth it. Give the A’s something for Lenny Dinardo, the best ground ball pitcher in the AL. Given Beane’s interest in selling, we could probably give some AA guys for him.
I do admit I am baised towards a lefty.
I would rather give Tom Shearn the league min than pay 7 mil a year for Fogg.
I agree w/ you, Dave, that there’s a decent chance Shearn could be as good as Fogg. Maybe a little better? I don’t know, but we do know one thing — Shearn would be a TON cheaper.
I also agree that I’d like to get a lefty in the rotation… preferably young, and a strikeout pitcher.
I keep bringing this guy up, but look at Jonathan Sanchez’s stats. I think he’s going to be really good, and (maybe lucky for us?) he’s coming off a fairly bad year:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Jonathan-Sanchez.shtml
preach, it does unfortunately drop your autograph value to Todd Benzinger’s level.