Loading ...Rosecrans has this article this morning saying that GM Wayne Krivsky likely isn’t finished tinkering with this roster, but I think we all knew that. Also, he has “an early look at the 2008 Reds,” which serves as a decent “state of the team” update. Then there’s this:
Krivsky will still likely trade for or sign a veteran starter along the lines of Jon Lieber, Mark Prior or Livan Hernandez to compete for a spot in the rotation and add insurance in case some of the young arms aren’t ready.
There’s also the possibility of signing former Red Mike Cameron to fill center field for a season in order to nurse Bruce along.
I wouldn’t complain about Lieber, Prior, or Hernandez, but I can’t figure out any reason to sign Mike Cameron for the salary that he will command.
UPDATE: If you don’t want to look ahead, Reds.com has a review of 2007 for the Reds. I can’t imagine why anyone would want to look back on that disaster, but there’s the link if you are a glutton for punishment.
Boy, Volquez must be something really special since we could’ve had Josh Hamilton “nursing” Bruce along in 2007 instead of looking at some aging, overpriced, performance enhanced centerfielder.
I keep hearing this stuff about Cameron, but to me, signing someone as a stopgap is dumb when that person needs there own stopgap for the first 25 games.
I understand waiting to see if the young pitchers pan out well enough before starting Bruce’s service clock this year, but 2hat happens if Bruce mashes in AAA, the Reds are in contention, and they can’t call him up because they have Cameron in center? I would absolutely hate any centerfielder signing, but especially Cameron.
Who needs to sign a stopgap when you have Hopper?
Forgot to add the appropriate emoticon.
Here’s a summary of what Baseball Prospectus had to say about the Volquez-Hamilton trade in their review of the Rangers farm system:
Forty-eight hours ago, Edinson Volquez would have qualified for this list, and also would have ranked second. While the Rangers were desperate for outfield help, they also have been desperate for pitching (and for a much longer time), and the decision to deal Volquez, who really looked like he had turned a corner during the second half of the season, is a curious one–-as is the decision to trade for Josh Hamilton, who can’t hit lefties. In addition, Hamilton, whether we want to talk about it or not, has an extreme problem with addiction, and one year does not necessarily heal anything.
Alex – You answered your own question. Cameron’s performance is easier to predict this year than is Bruce’s. If the Reds start Bruce in Center and through 25 games he has wretched numbers (doubtful but possible), then a Cameron can step in after his suspension. The Reds can option Bruce to AAA, and have a veteran CF. It isn’t like Bruce will run out of options. If Bruce plays well then some team may be looking to add a guy like Cameron by the deadline.
You can scratch Prior off your list. Padres announced that they signed him to a contract in 2008. $1 million base with incentives up to $3 million. No option year, so he’ll be a free agent in 2009.
At what the Padres paid for Prior you have to wonder why the Reds did not go after him, but maybe his not being able to pitch until possibly mid-May had something to do with it.
The Mariners are sweeting their offer for Bedard according to a report over on mlbtraderumors.com., so it is looking more and more as though the Reds are out of the running for the O’s lefty.
I just saw that too Greg. Not that Prior would have been much help to any team this year since he wont really get going until sometime around the ASB. But where are all these great players that have been buzzing Baker’s phone off the hook to come play for Cincinnati? Didn’t he have all this talent that wanted to come play here??? What a bunch of crap. I’m pretty sure he had nothing to do with Cordero and he certainly didnt have anything to do with the Rangers pitchers. We’re Still waiting Dusty…..
More than likely, Prior took a hometown discount. Also, pitching at Petco for a year rather than GABP probably made a difference.
I liked Prior but not on a 1 year deal. He’s banking on making it back this year and then hitting the free agent market again in 09.
I just hope the Reds sign someone to take some of the pressure off the of young pitchers. I’m worried about some injuries leading to the young guys being overworked (please no Prior/Wood II).
Signing Cameron makes no sense because he isn’t going to sign for a 1 year deal.
I couldn’t have been much more opposed to signing Prior, but for as cheap as he went, why not? Sure, he can’t pitch until May, and who knows how long he’ll last after that, but while he’s active you’ve got a strong, veteran pitcher among has-beens, but more importantly a bunch of will-bes that could benefit from having him in the rotation AND from just being around him.
Anyway, based on the possible opening day line up posted a couple days ago, the starting and early relief pitching looks like it could be roughly the same, on up to a whole lot better. At the expense, of course, of the bench. And actually, the more I look at it, the bench really isn’t any worse off. Keppinger was red hot to finish the season, I REALLY like Hatteberg in clutch situations, I’ve got a soft spot for both LLM and to a lesser extent Freel, and .. well, there’s Hopper.
With the young starters, I’m a little afraid the pen will suffer like last year. Starting Homer and Volquez will likely mean lots of innings for the pen early in the year. If Harang continues to kick ass and Aroyo is able to look more like a couple years ago, they should be able to get some rest.
I really think the key to this season will be taking advantage of the last year’s blown opportunities. The bullpen was largely incompetent and lost lots of games, but many of them could have been won if the Reds had more base runners and better batting when they were on. That stands out to me because it was the failure that could/should have been fixed.
If Prior was willing to sign a one year deal for one million, then that’s what the market deemed him worth. Which means that all the customers “kicking the tires” are unimpressed with Prior’s damaged arm. So all you’re buying is the name (“That’s a mighty pretty Corvette you got there, too bad it doesn’t run.”). As I see it, why spend money on fading pitchers (Exh. A: Mike Stanton)? If Prior/Hernandez/Lee et. al. are in it to throw 150+ innings and go 8-8 with an ERA in the high 4’s, do any of you think that Tom Shearn can’t do that?
When the Reds called Shearn up last season, I was thinking man, we’ve reached the bottom of the barrel: a AAA pitcher with an ERA about 4.5. But Shearn is a starting pitcher who went out and made lots of starts and pitched lots of innings. When he got to the Reds, he was 3-0 in 6 starts. His ERA was close to 5 but if I remember right, he got rocked in one start.
Why pay $1 million + for what you can get for $350,000?
PS – For all its seeming graduate school statistics, Baseball Prospectus is still “crystal ball gazing.” They were dead on correct about Eric Milton and totally unexcited about Brandon Phillips.
They also have a politician’s way of always hedging their comments. I’ve learned to take them with a grain of salt.
Honestly, I think any mid-pricerange pitcher such as Lieber or Hernandez is setting the guy up to be despised ala Milton. None of those guys have any ceiling they can only get worse when exposed to GABP and meanwhile they will be blocking some young gun who is putting up dynamite numbers in Louisville with his electric stuff. One bad start for Lieber or whomever and the calls for Cueto or Maloney will begin. What is the point in spending any cash just to block the progress of a young talent and stir up debates on the radio and make the guy feel like he came to the wrong city to try and resusitate his career? I just don’t see it ending well for whichever free agent tradeblock scrap we grab. I say lets roll with what we got. We certainly don’t need another outfielder at an exorbitant price so I hope these Mike Cameron rumors are totally unfounded. The one area that killed us last year without a doubt was the bullpen. I say add another arm and get rid of Majewski forever. I would never trust him in a close game EVER, not after his past two seasons.
I do not think Krivsky will sign a FA starter. Right now I think he is searching for a serviceable starter on the AL 40 man rosters. The 5th or 6th starter or the guy who pitches long relief or bounced to and form AAA. He has a habit of doing this with Arroyo, Lohse, Saarloos, and Volquez. This is a typical low risk/high reward move that Krivsky likes to pull.
Regarding comments above about a SP that will block the up and comers……… you can never have enough pitching. I just don’t think he is willing to spend any FA money on a Lohse type, when he effectively stole him for a little bit of nothing 2 years ago.
You can never have enough GOOD pitching. There’s plenty of bad, average and mediocre pitching available. I do not consider Lieber, Weaver, or Jennings GOOD pitching. They are innings eaters nothing more and nothing less, and wouldn’t you rather let the young guns chew up the innings instead, even if it meant something like a 6 man rotation to pull it off. They need experience, and you stick a Lieber or Hernadez in there you are gonna get disappoint GABP induced results in all liklihood with the fans demanding more playing time for the young guns. Its just a bad scenario. If we had less young arms, yes you might consider it, but we have like 4 or 5 guys ready to come up sooner rather than later.
I don’t know about a 6-man rotation Aaron… While that might be great for the young guns, it would really throw off things for Harang, Arroyo, and Belisle. They might be able to spin something where Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, and/or Maloney (3 of the 4) all make starts in the 4 and 5 spots with limited pitch counts and could throw some long relief if needbe as well. This could spark some competition at the beginning of the season and allow for something solid to form from the Spring Training/April/May “try outs” as it were. Trying to pitch on a 6 man rotation would not be advantageous… we need Harang out there every 5th day.
That’s pretty much what I meant. yes, I want Harang and Arroyo going every 5 days no matter what.
grnartinz:
I’m most definitely not a big fan of all the contrived stats on Baseball Prospectus. I agree with you on that.
However, they damn sure didn’t hedge their comments on the Hamilton trade. The writer made his call, and really left no grey area at all.
As for Shearn, if we go into the season with that guy in the rotation, we’re looking at another 90 loss season. At least.
Adding a long-reliever/spot-starter would be a smart move. If injuries and/or ineffectiveness hit the Reds staff, I don’t want Dusty overusing the young guys.
Josh Towers might be a good guy to have…as long as the Reds would put him in the pen if Cueto/Maloney became ready.
I kind of like Belisle, but I’d pretty much treat him the same way that I’d treat Towers (i.e., unless he performs exceptionally well, put him in the pen if the young guys are ready).
I’ve been enjoying the holidays so I have not posted anything here in a while. First, while Hamilton was a personal favorite of mine from the 2007 squad, I think the trade with Texas was a win-win situation with both clubs. It is not often you can add a starting pitcher with mid-90s heat to your roster. The question is whether Volquez can master his other pitches (much like the question with Bailey).
I am not expecting much from Herrera, but maybe he could be a lefty junk ball specialist out of the pen in a few years (though I don’t know of any 5 ft. 7 pitchers who have made it in the bigs).
While I hope for the best for Hobbs, he has a lot of question marks to overcome (i.e. can he beat the injury bug, and can he sustain success over the long haul after he has faced the same pichers and they figure out his weaknesses.)
Secondly, I agree with the sentiment for adding another veteran picher, along the lines of a Blanton, Lieber, Lee, etc. Blanton would probably require giving up one of our top pitching prospects, such as Bailey or Volquez (I think the Reds are going to keep Cueto and lefty Maloney).
Though Lieber and Lee have had poor to average stats of late, the Reds could hope for a bounce back year or innings eating process while their young pitching studs further develop.
The strategy I would like to see employed is that the Reds play the best players available on their roster, regardless of whether they are wiley veterans or high-ceiling prospects. If Lieber or Lee comes in and has a hot spring, play them! But also give Bailey, Volquez and Maloney legitimate shots as starters. Whoever starts off rough can be waiting in the wings during the inevitable ups and downs of a long season.
I really don’t like the idea of a rotating the 3-4-5 or 4-5 guys in the line-up. The competition for those spots needs to be settled in spring training.
Uncertainty creates confusion. I like things simple. The Reds have not have a “simple” line-up, rotation, or bullpen in a very long time. I want Dusty to establish the batting order, rotation, and bullpen roles early and not jockey it around too much. Not a fan of line-up shuffling, and platoon positioning.
I think a Towers-like guy would be a great add, and that is exactly the kind of guy I see him going after, but I would prefer the guy to throw left handed. I think Lenny Dinardo of the A’s would be perfect, but after his season last year his trade value is probably way too high. He did have the best ground ball ratio in the AL last year. Maybe we should have tired to steal him from Boston last year!!!!
The problem with a set rotation is we really don’t know who is better between Belisle, Bailey, Volquez, Cueto and Maloney. Sure we can guess about it and make assumptions, and we can have a competition in Spring Training but that is a really small sample size. We don’t want to accidentally send the best of the bunch down because of 1 bad inning. The only known right now is Harang and Arroyo are the best 2 pitchers and should pitch every 5 days.
I think it is perfectly acceptable for Baker to tell the others that the first month of the season he is going to shuffle the other guys around so that everyone gets equal opportunity to impress from the starting role. They can all take a turn at long relief. I would do this if ST doesn’t make it clear which of these guys is the best. If someone has a lights out spring ok put them into the rotation, but otherwise extend tryouts into April. The #5 spot is often treated this way, I am just suggesting doing this with maybe the #4 and #5 spot.
Adding a veteran arm is important if you know the guy is capable of going close to 200 IP. The only one who makes sense to me at this point is Livan Hernandez.
Chances are Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and Maloney will each get a chance to secure a spot in the rotation. The way I see it, if these guys give you mid 4 ERA and 150 IP, it isn’t nearly as valuable to our pen as a guy with a similar ERA but 200 IP. Three youngsters who can’t go 150 at the back end of the rotation will kill our pen.
Livan Hernandez is the only free agent who has consistently thrown over 200 IP. Lieber hasn’t done it in two years.
Cliff Lee and Blanton certainly are capable of going 200 IP but at the cost of one of our pitching prospects. Bedard is the only trade name who is worth a package of prospects in my opinion. If we can’t get him we have to turn FA. That should equal Livan.
I see the Marlins signed Cantu for $500,000 to help replace Cabrera. Was Jorge not offered such a deal here, or did he think he would command a larger salary and took his chances? I would like to think we would have matched that offer for a right handed bat that can give you as much utility as Cantu can.