Loading ...Well, the Hamilton trade has been consummated, love it or hate it. So where are we left standing, and what holes are left to get filled in for us to have playoff hopes next season? Here is a look at what the 25 man roster might look like on Opening Day as we stand now:
C Ross
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez
3B Encarnacion
LF Dunn
CF Bruce
RF GriffeyC Valentin
IF Hatteberg
IF Keppinger
OF Freel
OF HopperSP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Belisle
SP Bailey
SP VolquezCL Cordero
RP Weathers
RP Bray
RP Burton
RP Stanton
RP Coffey
RP Majewski
Let’s examine the roster:
Catcher:
Ross was a big disappointment with the bat last season. I didn’t expect anything from him last season like the numbers he put up in 2006, but I still expected more than the horrendous numbers he put up. He needs to improve offensively this season and I think he is capable of it. I look for Valentin to continue to get spot starts, but I don’t feel he’s good enough defensively for a straight platoon. This is an area of the club that I’d like to see addressed. Tatum is the closest to helping out from within the system and he is a few years off still. This is definitely a position where the Reds have some room for improvement.
First Base:
Joey Votto should be the starter from the get-go. He impressed last September after his callup, where he continued a great season with the bat. I’ve been impressed with Hatteberg the last few years — he’s more than exceeded my expectations — but I want to see Votto start, and I can’t imagine a better LH bat that Hatteberg’s coming of the bench in a tough spot late in the game. The Reds appear solid and set at 1B.
Second Base:
Brandon Phillips broke out big time last season. The only thing he needs to do this season is to prove he can do it consistently. My personal preference would be to see him flashing that leather over at SS and deal Gonzalez’s contract for help elsewhere and give Keppinger a shot at full time duty at 2B, but I don’t look for that to happen. Keppinger, Castro, and Freel will provide help here off the bench if necessary. The Reds are in great shape at second base.
Shortstop:
Alex Gonzalez missed significant time last season due to family issues. When he did play, he produced exactly opposite of what was expected. He was good defensively last season, but wasn’t as impressive with the glove as advertised. He also put up a career offensive season showing a surprising amount of pop. I expect that he will be more steady with the glove this year, and revert to disappointing with the bat. His career OPS is a hundred points lower than what he displayed last season, so expect a significant offensive dropoff. Keppinger, Castro, and Phillips can all fill in at SS if needed. The Reds are set at this position, but I feel there is room for improvement.
Third Base:
Edwin Encarnacion had a very solid season with the bat and made significant progress in the field. He reduced his fielding errors from 25 to 16 while having 44 additional total chances last season. He, like Phillips, needs to show that he can continue producing at this level. Keppinger, Freel, and Castro can fill in at third when needed. The Reds are in good shape at third base.
Left Field:
Adam Dunn, you all know the story. Chalk it up, 40 HRs, 100 R, 100 RBI, 100 BB, and 160+ Ks. He’ll muff a few out in left too. Never seen a player who was either so liked or disliked. Regardless, Reds are solid in LF.
Center Field:
Hamilton is gone and Jay Bruce is the heir apparent. The only question is whether they will allow him to start the season there, or opt to let him season a bit in AAA first. I strongly feel they should have him there opening day. He’s shown the ability to adapt to new levels last season and is the best defensive option there to boot. Freel is pricey and coming off of a down season that was filled with injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him dealt if they could find a taker. Hopper did a great job last season, but I have a hard time seeing him maintaining that .320 average in the bigs, and since he won’t take a walk, he won’t get on base enough to have any value as a leadoff hitter. Stubbs is two years away if he continues to develop. The Reds are covered here if Bruce is out there.
Right Field:
Ken Griffey Jr. had a great season last year. Does he have one more in him, or will the injury bug catch up with him again? I have to feel that if healthy, he will produce. But that’s always an iffy proposition with a player his age and with his recent track record. When/if he is injured, look for Bruce in RF and to see a lot more of Freel and Hopper than we want to. There is really no more outfield depth here. The Reds are in great shape as long as Griffey stays healthy.
Bench:
Valentin is solid from the left side of the plate for pinch hitting and a decent backup backstop. I like Hatteberg as the main LH bat off the bench. Keppinger can play 2B, SS, and 3B and will be a decent RH pinch hitter. Freel provides defensive flexibility, decent RH contact and speed off the bench, albeit he is probably too expensive for this role now. Hopper does the same without the defensive flexibility. The only thing missing on this bench is a RH OF with pop. The only one I can see possibly filling this role internally is Jerry Gil, but that’s a long shot. Oh yeah, I guess I have to mention that Juan Castro is still on the roster, but he’s a last resort in my eyes. The Reds have a decent bench in my estimation.
Starting Rotation:
Hats off to Aaron Harang for establishing himself as an ace last season. Let’s hope his name is coming up again next season in Cy Young award candidate discussions. Bronson Arroyo was solid again last season. Others would disagree, but I think he’s acceptable as a number two starter on a league average pitching rotation. Those two were easy.
Matt Belisle is probably the number three starter right now and I’ll probably surprise some people by saying I don’t believe that is a bad thing. I expect Belisle will surprise many next season and improve on his 5.25 ERA of last season to post something close to a league average starter ERA of about 4.50. I say this due to his high BAbip and 3 to 1 K/BB ratio.
I think Bailey and Volquez will man the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. They have both showed some success at AAA and mixed results in the majors. Cueto and Maloney, while both promising, have 7 AAA starts between them. Bailey and Volquez are both highly regarded prospects and both have top of the rotation potential. Like all major league pitching prospects, expect inconsistency. The question will be if both/either can develop enough to provide consistency by the end of the end of the season. The other consideration is how will Dusty Baker do in handling these two prospects.
Overall the Reds have the talent for the making of a good staff for the years to come, but it will most likely be league average at best next season, unless one of Bailey/Volquez really puts it all together and shines.
Relief Pitchers:
Cordero seems to be a good pickup. I won’t debate the dollars and sense of it, but I do believe he will be a solid closer for us. I also like the potential of Weathers, Bray, and Burton as setup men. I don’t hold out much hope for Stanton, and would prefer Coutlangus in the middle, but I don’t think that is bound to happen for contractual reasons. But I do believe that they may be willing to cut bait on him if he is horrible once again.
Coffey has been a big disappointment to me for the last few seasons. He appears to be preparing well physically for next season, but he’s going to have to do something to change his approach on the mound to prove himself and be counted on for more than long relief. I went with Majewski for the last spot in the pen, simply because he has been successful in the past and I think the Reds will give hive more than every chance to make “The Deal” prove fruitful for the Reds. Personally, I get physically ill every time he approaches the mound. But there is McBeth, Salmon, and Coutlangus hanging around to fill in.
I really think the Reds were mostly snakebit in the pen last year. I believe the addition of Cordero and a possible emergence of Bray as a lefty setup man will enable this corp of relievers to provide a league average performance.
Where We Are Now:
In my opinion, right now, I think this team will win about 83 games. I think they are just a bit better than average. They are definitely better than last year but not yet a playoff contender. I believe the offense will be little bit better than league average and the pitching staff will be about right at league average. The good news is that I believe this will improve in the next few years as the young pitching prospects develop and mature, and as Phillips, Encarnacion, Bruce, and Votto complete their development.
How To Get There In 2008:
The moves I’d try to make to improve the Reds a few games to put them into the playoff picture in 2008 are as follows:
Sign a FA starting pitcher with the potential to provide a league average 4.50 ERA. It will more than likely have to be a reasonably affordable signing with some risk to it. Maybe a Jon Lieber who hopefully would have an average year left in his aging arm. Maybe a Kris Benson, who just held a workout for interested teams, might be healthy enough to bounce back from injury. I just feel they need to add an arm that has a decent shot at giving them another middle of the rotation arm. This will give them a much better shot at having a bit better than average pitching staff.
Move Phillips to SS and start Keppinger at 2B. This will provide more offense and free up Gonzalez for a trade. Gonzalez is coming off his best offensive season ever, sell him high before he returns to his previous offensive level.
Obtain an offensive upgrade at catcher. Cleveland has Shoppach stuck behind Martinez, and Texas has Saltalamacchia, but with Laird in reserve and a top prospect, Teagarden, who made it to AA last season. San Diego has Bard and Barret on their roster. Not sure if any of these deals would be feasible to obtain for the likes of Gonzalez, Freel and some A ball prospects, but all would be interesting acquisitions.
Obtain a RH fourth OF with pop who could PH and provide insurance in case Griffey goes down with injury or if Bruce turns out to need more time at AAA. Maybe someone like Jason Lane.
These moves, if possible, would give us a bit more pitching and a bit more offense to hopefully push us into playoff contention next season while still maintaining our core of young players.
I’m sure you have some different opinions and ideas on how to get the Reds to the playoffs next season. Let’s hear them.
I like the analysis, I disagree with your following moves to contend:
1. Never never never move BP to SS, he is a great gold glove caliber 30-30 2B. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
2. Keep Gonzo. If his defense comes back to form, we can’t afford to trade him. He is a geniune stud defensive SS, and hopefully all is well on the home front and he will perform. I think he is the type that will absolutely excell under Baker.
3. Give Ross a chance. His defense is awesome, and I predict he will have a .240/.300/.450 type year. His 07 offense was just as much of a fluke as his 06 start. I do think we can upgrade, but I don’t want anymore trades.
Here’s what I do to contend in 2008.
1. Sign Prior for 1 year 4 million w/incentives, leave the rest on the scrap heap. I think we have a legitimate shot at grabbing him because 1.Thats the type of deal he wants, 2.He definitely has a chance to start, and 3. has relationship with Baker.
2. DFA Stanton give Coutlangous a shot….seriously not only does he suck but his gut is on steriods. Or let’s hope he still has some HGH around so he can perform.
3. No more trades, unless it involves Freel, Stanton, Hatteburg, or Keppingger. As much as I wanted Bedard, I am officially reversing my position. Price is to high.
Given the amount of talent we have, and the addition of Baker, I think we shoud currently finish 2nd in the division. If we grab Prior and he performs, i think we are dangerous. We have so much young talent at SP I think its time to see what we have.
The Reds don’t have a chance at Prior. Why would a pitcher wanting to sign a one year deal that will lead to his first giant contract want to pitch in GABP when he could pitch in San Diego?
I agree with Dave about Ross. I don’t think he is as good as he was in 2006 but I also don’t believe he could be as terrible as he was last year. As he is defensively adequate, there is no reason to look for an upgrade. In a market where Kendall got far too much money (and is worse than Ross) and Schneider was the key piece in the Milledge trade (and is also not really an upgrade over Ross), the Reds just need to hang tight for this year. That and pray that last year’s first rounder was gold.
1) Without Bedard, the Reds have to get lucky to make the playoffs. They need Bedard, AND someone else at the end of the rotation because Volquez is nowhere near ready for the majors. Yes, stranger things have happened, and there’s about a 1/20 chance he wins a spot in spring training, but right now, he projects as a poor man’s Daniel Cabrera, significant control problems and lots of fly balls translate into numerous shellings at GABP. If the Reds are to contend, Volquez won’t be a part of it, he has upside, but until he shows better control AND command, he remains a lotto ticket.
Prior is damaged goods until he can demonstrate the same velocity he had before the injury, as it is, that’s unlikely so its probably wasted money. Word I heard is he won’t be ready for prime time until after the ASB.
When Griffey gets injured, you need to hope someone overacheives now that Hamilton is gone.
Bullpen – as long as Cordero repeats last year’s performance, the bullpen looks good.
Go after Bartolo Colon with a 4 million base salary with innings incentives to up the contract to 8 or 9 million total if you are going to go after another starter.
1. Established free agent starter without a lot of spending (Lieber-like)for our #3. Got to agree we won’t contend without at least one more dependant arm in the rotation.
2. Ross will rebound. You heard it here first. Between him and Valentin, you are OK. Someone already mentioned the going price for mediocre catchers. Bleh. If we could have worked something out with Texas (Like Hamilton/Maloney for Salty/EV) that would have been sweet…I really think both teams were compatible for a bigger trade, but that’s how Wayne rolls.
3. Another bullpen arm. We’ve made great strides with the closer, but we have got to get to the closer. We need someone who can spot start. Yeah, Santos and Saarloos were not the fixes I had thought they were going to be, but at least you had an idea who you were going to use as a spot starter/long man if needed. I don’t think we have much for that right now.
4.I’m still at a loss for losing Cantu (especially after giving up two bullpen guys to get him…such as they were)and we need a right handed bat with some power. Preferably a guy that can play outfield and maybe a corner infield spot.
5. We need a new mascot. I want something to scream “new day” and anything new with a giant baseball head looks too much like anything old with a giant baseball head. The new guy (whatever his name is) also scares too many people (heck, I was ready to break out the annointing oil last time I was at GABP). Give me a mascot that’s a winner.
I just don’t get the desire to trade Gonzales and move Phillips to SS. You then weaken TWO critical, up the middle positions. In a hitters park with a rotation full of question marks.
What is Gonzo’s salary, about 8 mil a year? In the free agent market, what is that going to get you, Kyle Lohse?
It’s also unlikely that any team is going to trade young, inexpensive pitching for Gonzales. All you’re going to get for him is a salary-exchange type pitcher like, I dunno, Steve Trachsel.
I will say that if I am wrong about his trade value and the Reds could make a Cabrera-Garland type of trade, I would do probably do that. I just don’t think it would happen.
OOPS, just looked at Gonzo’s contract. It’s 3 years, 14 million. That’s not much money to free up to obtain starting pitching or pitching of any kind, really.
ESPECIALLY at that price, it makes very little sense to trade Gonzales. Orlando Cabrera makes $8.5 million a year, and here is a side-by-side look at Gonzales (listed first) and Cabrera’s 162 game career averages:
Gonzales: 6.89 162 game seasons
Cabrera: 8.70 162 game seasons
BA: .248, .273
OPS: .700, .724
OBP: .295, .321
HR: 15, 11
RBI: 70, 72
K: 118, 57
BB: 31, 43
R: 68, 81
Fielding %: .969, .978
Errors: 21, 16
DP: 109, 99
I’ll go so far as to say that Gonzales is actually a GREAT value.
We need to fetch a southpaw reliever.
I just don’t get the desire to trade Gonzales and move Phillips to SS. You then weaken TWO critical, up the middle positions.
How so? Keppinger (770 Chone proj. OPS) could very well come close to matching Phillips (780 Chone proj. OPS) offensive production next season and would probably be a dropoff defensively. Phillips will out produce Gonzalez offensively next season. I’ve yet to have anyone convince me that Phillips, who is a defensive standout would be a defensive downgrade at SS from Gonzalez. Phillips has all the tools to play SS, used to be a SS, and was only moved to 2B because he has been blocked there by others his whole career. I know his arm is plenty strong enough to play there, we’ve all seen his great range, and he has shown good hands already also. He’s even mentioned a desire to play the position in the past since he’s become a Red. I’m willing to listen to if someone can demonstrate numerically how this move would result more runs allowed than than we would gain offensively.
Like the analysis. My thoughts:
1) Castro? That is not Juan, right? Isn’t he gone? If you are right (and you certainly may be, I don’t remember) then, yikes, he needs to be cut.
2) I think for the first time in some time the Reds could contend for a division title with their current team. The Cubs should still be heavy favs.
3) No need to cut Stanton until he prove he can’t pitch this year.
4) I am afraid neither Coffey nor Belisle will ever put it together, but let’s hope.
5) Ross/Valentin is an ok option.
6) I love Phillips, he is currently my favorite Red. BUT, his OBP is soo low that he is probably already a little overrated. If he could just add about 30 walks a year, he would be a big difference maker in the line up. As is, he is an average offensive player who will soon make a lot more than average because of his steals and homers.
I don’t like the sound of getting a cheap veteran to clog up the middle of the rotation. That sounds an awful lot like Milton or Paul Wilson or that kind of player… a player with zero upside and tremendous downside that will steal innings from the youngsters, innings the youngsters will need in order to develop. We should be able to slot 3 youngsters out of Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Maloney, Belisle. Belisle got enough experience where I expect him to take a step forward. Bailey and Volquez both got a nice taste at the big league level and Cueto and Maloney are ready for an audition if any of the others falter. I just don’t understand getting some crappy 5 million innings eater. Why so he can get shelled at GABP and everyone gets down on him and demands one of the rookies to get his shot? Its setting the guy up to be despised by the fans as he will be blocking an electric arm.
Damn straight, Aaron. Well said.
The time is NOW. The Reds must go for it. My God, they just traded Hobbs!
SO….if you’re gonna go for the gold, go for it now. I don’t want to come off as a pussy, but if you’re gonna trade off the greatest talent I’ve ever seen, then you’d better be ready to answer when the questions come hammering down.
Go for it. Trade any and everything but Bruce and the young pitching if you ever hope to win anything. EVER. AGAIN.
I would also like to upgrade the catcher position, but there are not many options out there. It’s a weak position league-wide. I don’t think the Reds have a huge interest in replacing Ross because it should have been relatively easy to have added Gerald Laird of Texas in the Hamilton trade. So I’m just going to hope that Ross can at least land in the middle of his last two campaigns. I agree with all those who want our young pitchers to start over some veteran has-been they could obtain. Let them pitch, learn and excel. I think there is a decent chance to win the division with this group next year. Pitchers and catchers report in 60 days or so, I can’t wait.
Tom:
Philips has been “blocked” by the likes of Lopez, Royce Clayton, etc. I couldn’t tell you who he was “blocked” by in Cleveland.
But you don’t take a Gold Glover in his prime and MOVE him to another position. Especially to make room for a 28 year old career minor leaguer on his, what, 4th organization? I like Keppinger a lot, but I refuse to fall in love with him based on a couple of hundred at bats.
I did that with Freel and a few other guys over the last several years and always ended up regretting it. To me, there is no question that Keppinger’s best VALUE to the Reds is his versatility, including being the RH half of the first base semi-platoon.
If you get rid of Gonzo to make room for Kep, then you seriously weaken your bench and your late-inning flexibility, and you weaken your middle defense to a degree that makes no sense with a shaky pitching staff.
I heard an interview with Coffey recently and he said he and his high school pitching coach found a small flaw in his delivery in September. His last 9 appearances were pretty good. (Does make you wonder what Dick Pole was doing…but that’s another story.)
I have more confidence in Coffey regaining the ability to get people out than I do Stanton.
Pole? Delegating duties to the bullpen coach? Sometimes I think the “small flaw” talk is just a placebo.
Philips has been blocked by the likes of Lopez, Royce Clayton, etc. I couldn’t tell you who he was blocked by in Cleveland.
In the Cleveland organization, Phillips was a SS from 1999 to 2002, he was not a fulltime 2B until 2003 with Indians and later at AAA Buffalo after he flopped offensively in the bigs. In 2004 he split time evenly between SS and 2B at AAA. In 2005 he was a AAA SS. Omar Vizquel was the Cleveland SS through 2004, and Johnny Peralta took over fulltime in 2005. So basically Phillips had 5.5 years of professional experience at SS and 1.5 years of professional experience at 2B when he came to the Reds, and some pretty good SS talent in front of him at Cleveland.
But you don’t take a Gold Glover in his prime and MOVE him to another position.
That would be a gold glove “candidate”, and “move him back” to the position he spent about 60 percent of his professional career at. It’s not like he’s learning a new position, and who better to move and ask to make the adjustment to better the team, than a gold glove candidate in his prime.
Especially to make room for a 28 year old career minor leaguer on his, what, 4th organization? I like Keppinger a lot, but I refuse to fall in love with him based on a couple of hundred at bats.
Look a little deeper then, you might find something to like. Keppinger has a big league total of 417 ABs with a .309 BA/.367 OBP/.439 SLG/.806 OPS. In the minors 2146 ABs with a .321 BA/.374 OBP/.420/.794 OPS. Remember he’s replacing Gonzalez, not Phillips, and Gonzalez has a lifetime OPS of .694. He’s only been over a .700 OPS three times in his nine full seasons in the bigs. In my opinion, Keppinger showed plenty good enough defense last season to not be a defensive deficit at SS. I didn’t realize it until now, but he had a better FP and RF at SS than Gonzalez.
To me, there is no question that Keppinger’s best VALUE to the Reds is his versatility, including being the RH half of the first base semi-platoon.
Freel can still provide a versatility off the bench, and anyone who platoons Keppinger at 1B needs his head examined, he doesn’t have enough bat for 1B.
If you get rid of Gonzo to make room for Kep, then you seriously weaken your bench and your late-inning flexibility, and you weaken your middle defense to a degree that makes no sense with a shaky pitching staff.
Still waiting for some solid evidence that any drop in defense, if there is any, is not more than offset by the increased offensive production.
Tom:
It wasn’t me that thought of Keppinger at 1B, it was something Krivsky talked about when Cantu was released. Frankly, I think it’s a good idea, although I would have preferred to keep Cantu. Lots of guys had never played 1B and became pretty good at it. Hatteburg comes immediately to mind. And of course there’s Puhols. And on and on.
You always throw out these obscure stats that I’ve never heard of. With all due respect, they’re useless to me.
I’ve played ball my entire life, still playing it against professional guys 10 years younger than me in a winter league right now. I seriously don’t need anything other than simply watching a guy play to tell me who has a better skill set.
I’m very confident that if you asked, say, Aaron Harang, who he would prefer to have behind him, he would say Gonzo and Phillips.
IMO, and that’s all any of us really have, the best TEAM that the Reds can put out there as it currently stands has Gonzo at SS, Phillips at 2B and Keppinger as a PH/utility/double switch guy.
By the way, I have no idea how to produce “evidence” either way about whether or not Keppinger’s offense offsets his defense other than looking at run differential when Keppinger’s in the game.
In other words, did the Reds score more runs and give up fewer with Keppinger in the lineup vs Gonzo? That’s a comparison I’d like to see, especially without any excuses about who was pitching or who was in the lineup, etc.
Just cold hard numbers, no algebra or logarithms or formulas. Just baseball stats.
from yahoo sports (regarding the signing of Miguel Olivio by KC):
“Miguel is a talented catcher with a power bat and a very strong throwing arm,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. “With him and John Buck, they form one of the most powerful catching duos in baseball.”
There combined average is .238.
The market is not that great for catchers. If we couldn’t deal with Texas in the Hamilton deal, we are probably going to have to make do with what we have now. I still think that Ross will bounce back, and you have to feel pretty good about having Valentin and Hatteburg PH from the left side. I don’t think we really can do much better at that position.
What the Reds need, other than pitching, is a true leadoff hitter. I would offer a package of 4 or 5 young players to the Florida Marlins for SS Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez will command big money very soon and the Marlins simply don’t keep high dollar players around very long. Edwin Encarnacion would fill the void at 3B. Norris Hopper would be insurance in CF if Cameron Maybin flops. Homer Bailey would compete for a rotation spot. Pedro Lopez could be in the mix at shortstop. I would also include Drew Stubbs for a future outfield candidate. So that’s Encarnacion,Hopper,Lopez,Bailey and Stubbs for Ramirez. Getting Ramirez would allow the Reds to move Alex Gonzalez to 3B or trade him to the Angels or Orioles. You’re lineup could be: SS Ramirez,CF Bruce,2B Phillips,LF Dunn,RF Griffey,1B Votto,3B Gonzalez or Keppinger and C Ross. As far as the pitching is concerned, I would try to deal for Cliff Lee, sign Jon Lieber and let Belisle, Cueto, Maloney and Edinson compete for the final rotation spot. This would be a playoff caliber team.