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John Fay’s Sunday column deals with the Reds continuing search for more starting pitching:
They’re going to continue to try to land a starting pitcher. That’s Wayne Krivsky’s mandate from ownership.
The only limitation is he has to do it without giving up Jay Bruce. So far, that’s what has kept the Reds from completing a deal with Baltimore for left-hander Erik Bedard.
They continue to try to swing the deal without Bruce included. The hope is the Orioles will ease off their demand for Bruce and accept a package built around Homer Bailey.
At this point, I’ve decided I’d rather just keep Bailey (and Joey Votto and whomever else). I’m seriously concerned that Krivsky will overpay. He does have a history of that, you know.
Then, again:
The Reds had expressed interest in Haren but thought the price was too steep. The A’s apparently wanted a package that included Johnny Cueto.
Hmmmmm. That surprises me. I’d rather hang onto Bailey than Cueto, since Bailey is presumedly closer to being ready to contribute to the major league club, but maybe (probably) the Reds know something I don’t.
I guess the question is what else was included in that package that included Cueto. If the Reds were willing to give up a package of Bailey, Votto, and Josh Hamilton, for example, but weren’t willing to do the deal with Cueto included…well, that would be disconcerting. No way to know that, I guess, and our beloved General Manager isn’t usually forthcoming with information about anything.
Here’s what worries me, though:
My sense is the Reds will get something done. Going into the season with Matt Belisle as the No. 3 starter isn’t a good plan. Belisle might develop into a consistent winner. But “might” is the operative word. The same can be said of Bailey.
The stakes in the NL Central got a little higher last week when the Houston Astros added Miguel Tejada (speaking of the Mitchell Report) and Jose Valverde, the major-league saves leader.
Reds ownership doesn’t want three question marks in the rotation. Krivsky, in the final year of his contract, knows winning is essential to his job security.
That sounds like a recipe to get a deal done.
Sounds like a recipe for Wayne Krivsky to push the panic button to me. And we know what happens when Wayne Krivsky pushes the panic button because he thinks he has to win now.
Not trying to go down that road again, but I’m still unconvinced that the Kearns trade was a bad deal. I read somewhere that Lopez and Wagner are on the list of probable non-tenders. (Would not be a surprise looking at their stats). Majewski’s been horrible but Bray and Thompson have shown promise at times (Thompson albeit in single A ball). For this team right now, would much rather have Majewski, Bray and Thompson, over Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner.
Warning Reds Self Destruct has been activated. say goodbye to your fave players or just kill yourself….
cause we’re gonna see all we waited for gone in an instant
On Bailey v. Cueto,
If we stand pat, the rotation for 2009-11 becomes Harang, Bailey, Cueto, Arroyo, and whoever Krivsky can find given another year’s time, with the former four at a price between $21 and $28ish million (Bailey gets to Arb in 2011). So far, the Reds have committed 43 Million for 2010, with BP, Hamilton, EE, and a few others figuring to have new contracts by then, leaving $15 millionish to add one more pitcher. I personally am of the opinion that in that three season window the top of the Central will be Reds and Brewers, with the Cubs and the Astros fighting for third.
For me this adds up to meaning that for the Reds to have a multi-year window open up, they have to do it by outdrafting and outdeveloping other teams. A kind of Florida Marlins where 8-10 guys are under $5-10 million dollar contracts and everyone else is still in the three year period where they are making the league minimum. I think trading for Bedard, as beastly as he is, closes the window in the future and still leaves the Reds with two question marks in the rotation. The deal also puts the Reds payroll in 2009 over what I see ownership as willing to spend, meaning Griffey would have to moved, or Arroyo, or a combo of Ross, Freel, and Gonzo.
I hope that was all coherent.
I messed the link up… meant to link to John Sickels, who argues Cueto is better than Bailey.
I hate the term ‘window’ in sports. In implies in my mind that you actually plan on losing in the future in your plan so you can win some now.
I would much have a plan that lets you win continuously.
Are we at least allowed to enjoy the fact now that despite the terrible trade at the time, Kearns appears to have lost his starting spot and Lopez was rumored to be a throw-in at a winter meetings trade?
Haren regressed in the second half of last year. He went from being dominant to being, well, Dan Haren’s above-average self. I am not convinced that giving up Cueto or Bailey for him would have been worth it as you would be trading them for the memories of half a season of a guy’s career. It may be a sign that Krivsky is not going to panic if he did not make that deal. Of course, this could be thrown out the window tomorrow if Krivsky trades a couple top prospects for the terminally overrated Joe Blanton (remember GMs, 2005 is a long time ago in the life of a pitcher).
And what does Fay mean when he says that Belisle might develop into a consistent winner? Bartolo Colon is a “consistent winner” but I wouldn’t give him more than an incentive laden year. Is Belisle’s problem that he is just not trying hard enough to win? I thought it had more to do with the 26 home runs he gave up last year, but I guess he just wasn’t winning consistently enough. That should be easy enough to fix. Thanks for the remarkable talent assessment, Fay, too bad the wrong beat writer is working for the paper not going out of business.
If Joe Blanton is overrated, then so is Aaron Harang?
Blanton just turned 27 last week, throws 200+ innings a year, hasn’t missed a start in 3 years, rarely gives up a HR or a BB and competes his ass off.
The Reds will never win with the attitude displayed around here. To get talent, you have to give up talent. And if the Reds go into 2008 with the rotation as is, they’ll lose 100 games next year.
They HAVE TO make a move, and if I was the GM, there would be very few untouchables, and that very short list would only include Harang and Arroyo (only because it would make NO SENSE to trade proven MLB pitching) and Jay Bruce.
I’m definitely not advocating a fire sale, and there are other players that I hope don’t get traded (Bailey, Cueto, Hamilton, Dunn, Phillips, etc) but something has to be done to improve the rotation.
They’ll lose 100 games? That’s a bit pessimistic.
I agree that there should be very few untouchables, but that doesn’t mean Krivsky should overpay. And the fact that the Reds need pitching so bad is the precise reason why I wouldn’t trade Homer Bailey. We don’t need to be trading away one of the few assets we have in the weakest area of the club.
Plus, there’s a decent chance that Bailey will be a serviceable #3 starter in 2008.
In his early days with the Reds, Krivsky seemed to make his best moves (i.e. Pena for Arroyo, the discovery of Phillps, etc.) Ever since the Kearns/ Lopez trade, he seems to be a bit gun shy.
If I remember right, he may have discovered Keppinger after that trade. The Cantu deal looked like a good move originally, but now it does not make any sense. Also, Bray gives us some hope of having a decent part come out of the whole trade with the Nats.
However, I guess what I am trying to say his go ahead Wayne, and pull the trigger on a deal if it gives us a good shot the next few years at the Central and playoffs. But hang on to Bruce, and only give up one of either Bailey or Cueto. I have a hunch that Votto will develop into something special, but I am even willing to cut him lose in a deal if it gives us a legit shot at the playoffs now. Wayne, please go out and get Bedard or Blanton using reasonable, common sense parameters.
But if you can’t get one of those guys, then go ahead and get two of the second tier folks and hope one of them has a big bounce back year (i.e. Lieber, Colon, Silva, etc.)
Wayne’s going to make a deal. You don’t bring in Dusty to build a winner from your farm system and with your young guys. Dusty was promised the ability to make a contender (hence Cordero)and another quality starter, or two if you deal Homer, is needed for that. If Bedard is out, maybe both Leiber and Prior can be signed without loss of talent. Let Prior get healed in the pen and then add him to the rotation. If he doesn’t progress correctly you still have Belisle to go long or spot start.
I would rather sign Jon Leiber than give away the farm for Eric Bedard, and I think Bedard is terrific. But he would also probably only be in Cincinnati for two years. Bailey and Votto or Bailey and Hamilton for two years of Bedard….I don’t know that I make that deal, and I think Baltimore wants even more.
The names we keep hearing are not the only guys out there.
I keep beating the drum for Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants. He’s not “proven” but he would come much more cheaply than Bedard, etc., and I think he’s got a good chance to be very effective. I like his high K rate, and his unnaturally high BABIP last year (.368) is bound to come back to earth.
And, let’s remember, the Giants need offense badly.
And, while I’m here… I like trying to be on the lookout for guys who are undervalued…
Matt Murton (Cubs outfielder) has never been given a chance by the Cubs, and how they’ve signed Fukodome. Murton has GOT to be available for pennies on the dollar right now.
I know the Reds have tons of OF’s right now, but how many hit right handed with some pop? Zero.
Plus, I think, if you see an obvious case of “undervalued-ness,” you might as well pounce.
Murton is 26 years old and cheap.
Murton (minors) – .312/.384/.467 (1142 AB’s)
Murton (majors) – .296/.365/.455 (830 AB’s)
The downside, of course, is that one of the Cubs managers who never seemed to want to give him a chance was Dusty Baker. Nonetheless, I say go out and see what it would take to get him. I doubt it would be much. I think he’d be an asset.
It is a little disturbing that Wayne thinks he has to win next year to keep his job. “Win now or else” has an effect like “Maximize profits now or else.” It is not a smart way to build a long-term winner.
Yeah if he goes all out to win now what happens later losing again. look at the brewers only one of their 8 fielders i believe was a free agent the rest came from inside the orginazation. and now their great.
Here is how I see it….
If the Reds acquire a mid level starter and can keep their talent of Bailey, Bruce and Cueto we can compete each of the next two years and while we may not win the division it certainly helps the Reds 3-4 years beyond that point to make a true push for the WS with the talent that they kept.
If they trade for Bedard, they compete for the playoffs right now and best case scenario win the division and likely lose in the playoffs two straight years…. then have no talent to replace Bedard with and no one to step in at other positions and we are looking at being quite bad for 3-4 years after that, at least.
Maybe I am crazy though…. I have been told that before.
Are you sure – are you absolutely sure, that the Reds came out on teh short end of the Kearns-Lopez deal?
And considering what the Dbacks gave up for Haren (admittedly I’m not a good one to analyze prospects), I have to assume that Billy Beane wanted the farm system in return for Haren.
Krivdawg needs to keep his calm. If the last week has shown us anything, it’s that trade opportunities are like buses–you miss one there’s another one coming along in a few minutes. Some of these trades, like the Snakes trading Valverde, couldn’t have been envisioned even a short time ago. We need to stand pat. The Orioles have commited themselves to rebuilding. The clock is ticking for them to act, not us. Same with the Twins. Let’s not get caught up in a Greenspanian ‘irrational exuberance’.
Re: Kearns/Lopez…
We may have “caught a break” so to speak in that Kearns and Lopez have both disappointed since going to Washington.
But that will never change my opinion that, on the day of the trade, Kearns + Lopez had MUCH higher trade value than Krivsky got for them.
I even suspect he could’ve sent an email to all 29 teams saying “I’m trading Kearns and Lopez by the end of the day today. Send me back your best offers. Top bidder gets them.” And I think he would’ve gotten more than he did for them.
And no, I’m not a GM, but I do play one on the Internets…
Tampa Red,
Blanton’s stats do not compare with Harang’s. Their ERA+ over the last three years are 123, 92, 106 for Blanton and 112, 124, 125 for Harang. Blanton walks the same number of batters with far fewer strikeouts than Harang. 2005 was the last time Blanton had a lower WHIP than Harang. It’s really not particularly close. Harang is a top-level pitcher and Blanton is a mediocre pitcher whose reputation drastically outweighs his performance.
im upset with the reds over the kearns trade a bit still due to only a couple people we got arent with us
we got Brendan harris who we released and he got picked up by tampa an hit 295 with a couple homers but he would be a better bench guy then castro
I will make a prediction. Bill Bray has a breakout year in 2008, and the Kearns/Lopez deal is seen in hindsight as completely successful. Kearns and Lopez suck, and can’t play defense. Kearns is an outstanding example of how not trading a prospect can hurt you. Lopez’s offense was decent, but his horrible defense made up for it. By the way we are still in letigation with leatherpants about Magic’s shoulder, which was unknown at the time. We also got rid of whiffleball pitcher Wagner, not to mention received some prospects.
What does “overpay” mean? I am pretty sure that all GMs know the going rate for pitching and OFs, and guess what a solid reliever is worth more than an average OF.
In his early days with the Reds, Krivsky seemed to make his best moves (i.e. Pena for Arroyo, the discovery of Phillps, etc.) Ever since the Kearns/ Lopez trade, he seems to be a bit gun shy.
Hey Jamie, what about getting Hamilton and Burton. Krivsky has consistently added at least 2 premium roster players each year and serveral above average bench players. Arroyo, Phillips, Burton, Hamilton, Bray, Keppinger, Norris, Cordero, etc.
Trust his judgement and go with it. He is probably the best GM in our division.
nope best GM just got Valverde and Tejada
they are two amazing pickups for the astros
Dave – I couldn’t agree more. This idea that Krivsky didn’t get the most available is simply speculation because Kearns and to a certain extent Lopez were relative favorites among fans.
I have been relatively impressed with Krivsky’s ability to find the diamonds in the rough so to speak. That said, our potential targets this winter are hardly that.
With Cordero in the mix, the Reds’ targets seem now to have turned to high end pitching, Willis, Haren, Bedard, Blanton (?).
In my opinion Haren had more appeal only because he was controlable for three years to Bedard’s two. Bedard is still heads and shoulders above Blanton or Willis. I can see packaging Bailey with a couple prospects for Bedard or Haren – two legit aces – but Blanton?
Blanton does eat innings but his ERA is high – especially in Oakland. He is not a strikeout guy, and his BAA is not where I want it to be. Blanton is a decent number two or an even better three in the NL – probably an Arroyo type… That is not someone I would sell the farm for.
If your giving up a package which includes Bailey, then it better be for a bona fide ace.
12 Dan you aren’t the only one who is talking about Jonathan Sanchez. I saw him mentioned the other day at fan nation as having been the object of the yankee’s interest.
Also I have read that Mark Prior is not expected to be ready until June or July at best. Can anyone confirm or deny that because that could heavily influence a decision to sign him.
I don\’t know, Kerm. I\’m just sitting here being thankful we\’ve had Gary Majewski in the fold for the last season and a half.
Hey hopefully we can trade majewski for Sanchez
Krivsky saw somethign in him maybe we can wipe out another team for him.
oh wait only the reds like that sort of talent
I downloaded the Chone projections for 2008 and set up the Reds roster with the most likely to play and totalled up runs scored and allowed and ran the numbers through the Pythagorean. They were quite kind to the current Reds as they come up with 85 wins. I then applied the proposed Bedard for Bailey/Hamilton/Votto trade and adjusted the roster accordingly. The net result was that the Reds are projected to win only 84 games after the trade. I think that trade deals too many players who will be counted on next season to contribute. I wouldn’t make it.
Sabean is a terrible GM, so he’s the one guy Krivsky might be able to fleece.
Kerm, according to Prior’s agent, he will be ready by late May, but most people are assuming that really means post-All Star Break.
Cynic:
I am as big a Harang fan as anyone, and I obviously wouldn’t trade him straight up for Blanton. I just wanted to make that clear, but…
I have no idea what ERA+ is but here are their traditional numbers over the last 3 years:
Wins:
Harang — 43
Blanton — 42
IP:
Harang — 677
Blanton — 626
ERA:
Harang — 3.77
Blanton — 4.10
HR:
Harang — 78
Blanton — 56
K:
Harang — 597
Blanton — 363
BB:
Harang — 159
Blanton — 165
So while I would say that Harang has performed better, it’s not a blowout, and when compared with the league average, I think it’s a stretch to say that Blanton is vastly overrated.
And Blanton has the added advantage of being a full 2 years younger than Harang.
Blanton would immediately become the number 2 starter on this team and made the whole club significantly better. I don’t know what the A’s are asking for him, but he’s a pretty valuable guy.
Quetion I have: Why does everyone assume that the deal is Bailey/Hamilton/Votto? I haven’t seen that confirmed anywhere. The best you get is John Fay speculating. What he has said is that there is a package centered around Bailey and that Bruce is untouchable. If I’m wrong show me. Otherwise I think all the over-reaction to Bailey/Hamilton/Votto needs to stop.
Chad:
I agree with you about Bailey. I would be much more included to trading some offensive depth before pitching. I just think, and apparently so do most of the big league professionals, that Bruce is simply too talented to let go.
David,
I read all this stuff and I have not seen anything that confirmed a Bailey/Votto/Hamilton offer. My best guess is that has not been offered. I think a Bailey/Votto/Stubbs/Frazier deal or a Bailey/Hamilton/Stubbs/Frazier deal would be more realalic offers. Not to say they don’t end with Bailey/Votto/Hamilton, but that is definitely not a starting point in negotiations. I don’t think the Cubs or M’s could compete with a Bailey/Votto/Hamilton offer.
Dave, David or anyone else,
Like many Reds fans, I’ve been a bit addicted of late to scanning the news wire in hopes of reading about a Reds deal getting done for Bedard or Blanton. While nothing new is up so far today on those fronts, I did see some interesting comments attributed to the Brewers camp.
As a side note in an article about Gagne’s reported steroid usage, Brewers GM Melvin said that he was surprised at how quiet it has been of late. He thinks if a deal does not go down in the next few days, it will probably have to wait until January.
Melvin has also indicated that he would like to trade a pitcher for either an outfielder or a third baseman. If he gets a third baseman, Ryan Braun will move to left field.
I am wondering if the Reds should consider a back-up plan of dealing Hamilton, Freel or Hopper plus a prospect for Chris Capuano or Dave Bush. I don’t know too much about these pitchers, though I had Dave B. on my fantasy team last year and dropped him because he was maddingly inconsistent. I have heard both of these guys are groundball pitchers, which may fit nicely into GABP.
Of course, the Brewers and Reds may not pursue such a trade since they are rivals.
Here’s another idea, that is a bit out of the box: What about some type of three-way deal with the Reds, Tigers and Orioles all involved? Willis and Inge could end up with the Os (I read recently that Baltimore would like more African American players since they have a large number of African American fans). The Reds would get Bedard. The Tigers would get Bailey and Votto, or better yet Freel.
Thanks Dave. It’s been confirmed that Hamilton was offered for Willis. It has been confirmed that Bailey has been offered to several clubs. However, nothing I’ve seen has suggested packages that some people are suggesting.
My suspicion has always been that the team favors Cueto after seeing Bailey at the MLB level. EdE, while still young, is expendable given our talent at 3rd at the minor league level and the emergence of Kepp.
My bet would be that these are the primary suspects in any trades discussed: Bailey, EdE, Coffey, Majewski (buy low), Freel, Hamilton (buy high), Hatteberg and some of our second tier prospects.
Again that’s just speculation, but no more so than a Bailey/Hamilton/Votto deal.
I think the reds should sign Jason Jennings. He is going to be cheap and is due for a bounce back. He pitched well in Colorado. He is also a free agent. The reds could splash the cash for Carlos Silva too, but I am unsure if the flyballs he gives up will stay in GABP
Jamie –
I live in Milwaukee so I hear plenty of talk about the Brewers. Melvin said this week on 1250 AM that he wants a left handed bat – preferably at third base. They had discussions on Tejada but couldn’t get it done.
I don’t see the Reds trading anyone to a division rival, especially if they are in “win now” mode.
I don’t see a three way trade with the Orioles either. The O’s want to get younger. So the discussions have been primarily with the Reds and M’s who have youngsters like Bailey and Jones available. If the Cubs offer Pie, which I doubt, maybe, maybe the Cubs have a slight advantage. The M’s appear to have moved onto Carlos Silva and are deep into it with his representation.
I still am worried another team is going to swoop into steal Bedard. What if the Yanks or Sox miss out on Johan? How about Bedard in NY or Boston?
Another name being tossed around is AJ Burnett. He is surely injury prone but he is a definite buy low candidate. If we could steal Burnett with a combination of Hamilton and others, keeping Bailey and Cueto, we would have enough arms to compensate for Burnett’s injury. Burnett is more expensive – about 12.5 mil a year through 2010, but he could definitely be serviceable back in the NL where he had his best seasons.
For the Jays an outfield of Hamilton, Rios and Wells may look awfully nice. Maybe a deal including Votto to replace Overbay could work?
Its unlikely that Bedard goes to NY or Boston because the O’s probably won’t trade him to a division rival, especially those two.
Josh – normally, I’d agree, but when it is Boston and NY you can never be sure.
I dunno Chris I am still looking over my shoulder just incase magic man is there ready to shove something in an uncomfortable orifice.
Haha. I’d forgotten about that statement.
Tampa Red (#30): ERA+ adjusts for ballpark effects, which is a very important adjustment when you’re comparing pitchers from Oakland and Cincinnati.
The fact that Harang strikes out 40% more batters is also a HUGE difference, and one that means that Blanton isn’t a great bet to be as effective in the future, particularly with a shaky (Reds) defense behind him.
That said, Blanton would be an okay 3/4 option in the rotation, if you could get him cheaply.
Chris explained it before I did. And I wasn’t saying that Blanton is a terrible option, just not that he’s Bailey/Votto/Hamilton material and that he’s far below Harang. Blanton for consecutive years has been a league-average pitcher (and league-average is better than all but two current Reds starters) but he’s not a 1 or 2 guy even in the NL.
Oh, and ERA+ works counterintuitive to ERA in that the higher the score, the better. 100 is roughly league average. As a reference point, Harang’s 125 last year was 9th best in the NL (Peavy’s 159 was tops). Blanton’s 106 last year put him a little above average and his 92 in 2006 made him below average.
It’s also important to note that per B-R, Noah Lowry and Joe Blanton are very similar statistics wise yet I’m fairly sure that Lowry can be had for far less than Blanton at this point.
Thought about it, and I would trade Bruce. As good as I think he will be, RF is the easiest position to fill in baseball. And, Bruce’s value will never be higher than it is now (as the no. 1 prospect in baseball).
That being said, I would want quality starting pitching, and I would not be willing to part with any of my other top tier prospects or young everyday players. Which means no trading Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Hamilton, or Encarnacion.
Another guy I would consider trading straight-up for pitching is Brandon Phillips. Sell high, buy low. Keppinger could play 2B (not the same defensively, but would probably be +.50 OBP with less power).
These are the two guys that I believe may be overvalued on the market right now. I would not trade Cueto or Bailey for anything. Starting pitching is the key.
no matter what we do, I think Krivsky needs to act. The market is getting slimmer and slimmer, and there’s no getting around it, we need another pitcher. At least Coffey lost 10 pounds, though, right?
Can anyone substantiate a wild rumour about interest by the White Sox in Cueto and Votto for Buehrle? It sounds like just a rumour as Buehrle has no-trade protection. See http://www.baltimoresun2.com/talk/showthread.php?t=128332
Oops, in reading back over that thread it actually was noted as interest by the Reds in the White Sox pitcher Buehrle.
Chris and Cynic:
Like I said, I don’t know what the A’s want for Blanton, but he is a guy I think the Reds should be aggressive on. He doesn’t have the same value as Haren or Bedard, but he has value as an established big leaguer who just turned 27.
I really believe that if the Reds don’t add another arm to the rotation, we are looking at another 90+ loss season, and that’s if there are NO INJURIES to the current projected starters. God forbid Harang or Arroyo miss any extended time.
There is NO depth AT ALL in the rotation. It makes no sense to hold onto offensive prospects while running out the likes of Shearn and Dumatrait every 5th day.
The Reds have a real chance to win the division next year and for several years afterwards. I like having Baseball America say good things about the farm system as much as anyone, but I’d also like to see some meaningful baseball in October, too.
I’m gonna jump back in because things are starting to pick up steam.
Kevin – Your point is well taken. Silva signed with the M’s. Santana is supposed to be a Red Sock before teams close for Christmas. Haren has already been dealt. Top flight pitchers are starting to find new homes and according to John Fay Krivsky does not sound like a man on the verge of a deal.
Who is really left? Bedard, Blanton, Buehrle, Burnett? Killer B’s I guess. Bedard is heads and shoulders above the others though Burnett could have some serious value if healthy.
According to some scouts around the league the Reds are really over-valuing Bailey which is why a potential deal is hitting a snag.
Lefty – As much as I don’t want to give up on a guy like Bruce, you make a good point. It would be interesting to see a rotation of Harang, Bedard, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle/Cueto. The questions would certainly be whether Hamilton would continue to perform at a high level, whether the Reds could/would sign Dunn to an extension, Stubbs’ offensive development, and Griffey’s plans. That’s a lot of questions to feel comfortable shipping Bruce off for Bedard, but it does make for interesting conversation.
Everyone seems to think that the Reds have a lot of offense to spare. I’m not so sure about that.
Dunn–probably leaving after 08
Griffey–same as Dunn
Hamilton–has shown a lot of promise but is still a question mark
Bruce–same as Hamilton
Votto–same as Hamilton
If the Reds lock up Dunn, I’d be much more comfortable with the Reds trading away Hamilton, Bruce or Votto.
I’d like to see the Reds acquire Bedard but I think if they do, they won’t resign Dunn because of financial reasons. So, when we think about trading for Bedard, we kind of have to include Dunn as a player that we’d lose. Losing Dunn and too many top position prospects isn’t a good idea. The lineup in 09 wouldn’t be too good.
I think the Reds should acquire Bedard by giving up 4-5 2nd and 3rd tier prospects. The Reds have a very deep farm system so it wouldn’t hurt them too much. The D’Bags used its minor league depth to nab Haren. Hopefully, the Reds do something similar.
Snake – Haren cleaned out what remained of the D’Backs farm system. The 1st, 3rd, 7th and 8th prospects in their system all went to Oakland. While Carlos Gonzalez was probably the only “notable” prospect he has definite value. I don’t think 2nd and 3rd tier guys are going to get it done.
Okay, David…where does this information come from about scouts saying the Reds are over valuing Bailey. I’m not saying that isn’t accurate, but I would like to know where you’ve heard/seen/read that. If its true, I would like to know more information about why they have that opinion, and I would like to know who these scouts are so we can judge their opinion.
Again, if its true, that’s very interesting.
well pitching wise florida signed Carlos Silva to a 4 year 44 million deal pending a physical so there goes one guy the reds were looking at.
I’m glad Silva’s gone… That low K rate and high hit rate would’ve been a disaster in GABP and in front of our defense. I really think he would’ve been another Milton here.
I hope the Reds don’t feel like their only options are the “big names” (Bedard, Burnett, Blanton, etc.) or retread free agents (Lieber, Livan, etc.) There are other pitchers in baseball than that limited field. Shop around and find value and promise that is not yet overpriced.
Jonathan Sanchez, come on down!
(You too, Matt Murton.)
These guys are good but not yet “proven” (i.e., not yet “overpriced”). This is what we need to be shopping for.
By the way, @Lefty (#45), excellent point about selling high. The guys the Reds could offer right now who may be at their “sell high” point are probably Bruce, Phillips, Hamilton, Harang. That’s probably about all.
I’m not saying we SHOULD trade those guys. I’m saying those are the guys whose value seems to be peaking.
Bailey probably had more trade value a year ago than he does now, for example.
Something to consider anyway.
I think Beane must’ve figured he was selling high on Dan Haren. That’s tough to do after the year he had, but he had the cajones to “cash out” when he figured he could get the most.
He did that fantastically with Mulder as well — that’s how he got both Haren and Daric Barton! (We owe Billy a big “thank you” for weakening the Cardinals w/ that one, by the way.)
Chad – Both Fay and Rosenthal speculated that Bailey was being overvalued.
If you could get Bedard without giving up current roster guys and Cueto, ala Haren trade, I really think you need to consider it. I think that we have so much depth at OF in our system that we would overcome the loss in offense down the road, except at CF where I think the Hammer culd be a man amoungst boys
Bruce + Maloney + Stubbs + etc.
I don’t think you should trade Stubbs and Hamilton.
@ Dan
I also want the Reds to kick the tires on a Jonathan Sanchez deal.
@David
The highest I would go would be Votto or Hamilton or EE, and 3-4 2nd and 3rd tier prospects. Bedard should actually bring a lesser trade return than Haren because of their contracts.
Chad –
Ken Rosenthal said this about Bailey “Several other clubs do not value right-hander Homer Bailey as highly as the Reds do in trade proposals.” You can find that here: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7581498
According to the Seattle Times, the Mariners are still interested in both Santana and Bedard even after signing Silva. The article mentions that the Reds are the biggest competition for Bedard.
My suspicion is that the Orioles are demanding Jay Bruce from the Reds because the M’s are offering Adam Jones. If the M’s pull out, it might be possible to go into the deal without Bruce.
I don’t want to see the Reds sacrifice 2009/10 by making a big splash in 2008. If they get Bedard fine, but go with a deal similar to (and lesser than) the D-backs gave up for Haren. The A’s received 1 player with major league experience (less than 65 IP), and the results from Eveland haven’t been good so far.
Haren is under contract for the next three years at $16.25 million. He’s also repeated his current level of performance multiple times.
Bedard has pitched like an ace once and it wasn’t even for a full season (never has made it through a full season.) I don’t want to see the Reds trade away 5-6 prospects, especially if more than 1 or 2 of those going to Baltimore are already major league or AAA players like Votto, Bailey, Hamilton or Encarnacion.
Baltimore is definitely trying to sell high, and I don’t go after Bedard until the price drops. Actually, I’m leery of obtaining Bedard at all. I’d like to know how the offers for Blanton compare.
I think that next year’s offseason would be the appropriate time to consider going after someone like this offseason’s Haren/Bedard. The team will hopefully have figured out what they’ve got in Bailey & Cueto & Maloney. I’d also make a go at Mark Prior. 1 yr + option or 2 yr deal. He comes in out of the bullpen midseason 2008 with a spot in the rotation in 2009. That may not get in done in the eyes of the average fan, but I think that’s the best route to long-term success.
Dave )57…you’ll trade Jay Bruce, but don’t want to trade Stubbs? Are you kidding?
GregD – Win now with Bedard or have the possibility of winning later our current crop of prospects. That is what it comes down to in my opinion.
You can’t tell me that a rotation of Harang, Bedard, Arroyo isn’t among the best in the National League. Add CoCo out of the bullpen and we have a very good chance of winning the central and frankly a playoff series seems likely if all players remain healthy.
While this is a bit against what I have been preaching, this is a good quote by Jayson Stark:
“We can sum up the difference between the National League and the American League these days with one little winter meetings anecdote.
We were speaking with a high-ranking official of an NL contender. We asked about a potentially earth-rattling trade we’d heard his team had kicked around.
It was there to be made. This official admitted that. His team could use the player. It had the players it would take to make the deal. But it wasn’t happening. Not unless his team got realigned to the American League in the next 30 seconds, anyway.
“If we played in the other league, I’d probably do that,” he said. “But in this league, I don’t have to do it. If we keep the guys we’d give up, we have just as much chance to be playing in October as we would if we made the deal. So why do it?”
Bedard doesnt guarantee a playoff berth
it guarantees a good starter for 2 years.
we still need another good arm in the pen.
and if we trade all these guys we’re left with and aged outfield and a 38 year old first baseman
David, I think your comment in #63 is what I am getting at. If the Reds can get Bedard for Cueto + 2 AA guys + 2 single-A guys (as an example), that doesn’t have a huge impact on the ML team in 2008-09 and an unmeasurable impact to the team’s future. If the offer is two of Hamilton, Votto, Bailey plus a couple of prospects, then I feel the Reds are better off short-term & long-term keeping the guys they have. All 3 of those guys are expected to spend a significant amount of their 2008 playing time on the 25-man roster.
Re #64 it guarantees a good starter for 2 years
For 2 years a player who is yet to complete a full year w/o injury in his major league career.
At this point, keep the offense in tact, add a Lieber or the like for a #3 starter, convince the Pirates to fork over one of their reliever arms cheaply, and be on course to make a post season run this year. Perhaps do some dealing around the all star break. We are close enough that a decent starter and one more bullpen arm could get us into the post season.
I’m not entirely sure that the Reds are really overvaluing Bailey. As they supposedly keep including him in packages, they don’t seem to think that he’s an untouchable. The fact that they are offering him and not discussing Cueto would show that they think Bailey is their #2 pitching prospect.
I’d still like to see a Bartolo Colon signing for kicks. He’s about the only free agent pitcher (other than Prior, but he’s a mid-season replacement at best) that I’d take a risk on.
GregD – I totally see the other side.
I just believe that it has been rare to see a Reds’ farm system with enough talent to score a player of Bedard’s caliber and still have enough left in the cabinet to not be totally depleted. Give up Bailey, we have Cueto. Give up Hamilton, we have Bruce, etc.
What is even more rare is that the Reds’ farm system is strong enough to get a guy like Bedard at a time when the Central is within reach.
By the way, I think that you do not value Bedard highly enough. He has had one “ace” year sure, but look at his progression over his years in the majors.
- ERA down every year
- BAA down every year
- WHIP down every year
- BAA down every year
- OBPA down every year
- OPSA down every year (obviously)
- Ks up every year
- K/BB up every year
- W% up every year
I like those trends. A lot. By the way his career 8.74 K/9 ratio would put him 9th all-time, if he maintains that figure while reaching the minimum 100 decisions, 1000 IP, 3000 PA – which granted is a BIG if.
Bill 61,
I was trying to say that I wouldn’t trade both Stubbs and Hamilton. Both of these guys have gold glove CF potential which Bruce doesn’t.
Everyone needs to remember Bruce has not had 1 major league at bat. Seriously with Bedard we are taking about a possible 20 game winner. Not to mention if he leaves after 2 years (I would hope he signs an extention) we get compensation picks because of his awesomeness.
Everyone who wants to keep all of our prospects needs to read the next line.
ALL OF THE TOP HITTERS ARE LEFT HANDED, AND ALL OF THE PITCHERS ARE RIGHT HANDED. Do you really think our team is going to be any good with all right handed starting pitchers and all left handed power bats? There are a few exceptions with EE, BP, and Maloney but the hot stove isn’t really about them is it?
Leftyness is the main reason I like Bedard much better than Haren or Blanton, not to mention his K/9.
Injury history is a reason to de-value Bedard.
I can’t argue that having all left handed hitters would be an issue, but the right handed pitchers has no real basis for concern. The Red Sox just won a World Series with all righties. And they did the same in 2004 with all righties against an all righty Cards staff. Pitching quality trumps handedness every time.
“The guys the Reds could offer right now who may be at their “sell high” point are probably Bruce, Phillips, Hamilton, Harang. That’s probably about all.”
Good points Dan. The one guy I disagree on as a “sell high” is Hamilton. I think he is still undervalued because of his injury-history, past, etc.
That guy did some things last year that I have never seen on a baseball field. (Remember the throw in spring training). I was also very impressed at his ability to hit the ball to opposite field. Match his PAs with Phillips PAs and he finishes with 40 HRs and 102 RBIs.
Of course you are gambling that he can stay healthy. Will be very interested to see him next season, with a year under his belt. He is still young, 26 at the start of next season.
Whether Hamilton *should* be valued so highly or not, it seems he is. It sounds like he’s drawn lots of interest from other teams. That’s really all it takes to be able to “sell high” on someone.
I just believe that it has been rare to see a Reds’ farm system with enough talent to score a player of Bedard’s caliber and still have enough left in the cabinet to not be totally depleted.
It’s that last part I disagree with. They have enough talent to land Bedard, but it would leave them pretty depleted. Bruce or Hamilton? With Dunn and Griffey both headed into the final years of their contract, who plays the outfield in 2009 if Bruce or Hamilton is traded? Given Griffey and Hamilton’s injury history, who plays the outfield in 2008 if Krivsky caves and Bruce is traded?
Contrast to the D-back situation. They have all 3 starting outfield positions under contract for at least 3 years (and CF & RF for more). Webb, Davis, and Owens are in the rotation for three years. Adding Haren gives them a solid 4-man rotation under contract for 3+ years. They can trade prospects because they don’t have room at the major league level for their prospects to play. The Reds aren’t there yet, IMHO.
@ GregD
We definitely have some talent in the minor leagues to spare. The Reds have the #2 system in all of baseball. The Reds basically have 30 pretty good or better prospects in their system.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/12/7/16485/6608
I do agree that the team needs to plan for Dunn’s and Griffey’s departures, and a possible young player/prospect bust or two. Dunn and Griffey are leaving soon so I’m mainly worried about position players who are current big leaguers or more developed position prospects. AA and lower is fair game though IMO.
69 dave
dave bruce is a 5 tool player yes he does have gold glove caliber
And comparing overall players, Stubbs can\’t carry Bruce\’s……stats. And Stubbs is almost 3 years older.
I\’m curious how many people that are downplaying or discounting Bruce\’s potential have actually seen him play?
I’ve seen Bruce play for the Bats, and I also watched Bedard dominate own the Red Sox and Yankees last year. I think they’re a little tougher competition than the Clippers.
We are not going to be able to grow our entire MLB team from our farm, we are going to have to sign FA and trade some prospects away.
Recently BA picked Bruce over J. Upton so that should tell you what people think about Bruce’s talent.
I still think the O’s were trying to entice the Reds to part with Bruce as a result of the M’s offering A. Jones. Now that Jones is probably off the table, it is likely that the Reds will be able to work a deal without Bruce being involved.
What if the Reds could work a deal for Bedard without losing Bruce, Cueto or Hamilton? It sounds like everyone would be on board, no?
Dave77 – unless Castellini is going to carry a Yankee-type payroll, the Reds aren’t going to compete with an entire MLB team built on trades and free agents either. Looking at the 25-man roster link in the left hand column of this website, I see 4 of 25 drafted by the Reds (Votto, Dunn, Bailey, & Coffey.) Encarnacion was acquired as a single-A player, so you could argue that he’s a Reds farmhand. They have to get more out of the farm. It’s not going to help if they move a chunk of their best major-league ready guys to get one pitcher.
David78 – It’s really hard to say without seeing who the names are. Without losing Bruce, Cueto, Hamilton, OK. Bailey, Votto, Encarnacion. I think the only type of deal I could stomach would include at most 1 of those 6 plus a number of other highly rated prospects that aren’t in AAA or higher. 4 of those 6 have major league experience and Cuteo and Bruce did very well at AAA (close to making the jump.) If the Reds system is highly valued and deep (and system depth is being measured by folks who haven’t spent time on the major league roster) there should be plenty of prospects who aren’t ready to contribute in 2008 that could be included in the deal.
bedard is not worht it
i know we’re anxious to win now
but the truth is we’re better off waiting for Homer Cueto and Maloney.
David I would be more willing to part with Hamilton than Bailey given our outfield surplus.
What outfield surplus?
Griffey, Dunn, Bruce, Votto, Freel, Hopper. That’s more depth than most clubs, and it’s after trading Hamilton.
@ Chris
See comment 51. Neither Freel nor Hopper should be counted on as everyday outfielders. Votto and Bailey are both potential busts (probably not but it might take a few years for them to fully develop). Votto is more of a 1B than an OF.
Griffey & Dunn are both free agents at the end of the year (unless you pick up Jr’s $16 million option.)
Freel and Hopper are good 4th OFers, but I wouldn’t want to see them starting every day for an extended period of time.
Votto is 1B, unless you send him to AAA to play left field to replace Dunn in 2009.
Bruce is good depth.
If the team plans to sign Dunn to an extension, I could see moving Hamilton. If they let Dunn walk, I don’t feel they have enough depth to move Hamilton for pitching.
votto is no bust.
he only played half a month and tore it up
That’s exactly why he could be a bust. He only hit well for a half a month.
“could be a bust”….sure, but since every place he’s played for the majority of his season, other than Sarasota (the “take a strike” season) he’s put up an over .900 OPS, I’d bet not.
Baltimore Sun is reporting that Bedard probably won’t be traded before Opening Day at this point.
Thanks, Bill. I also read in that article that Mora will not waive his no trade clause and insists he will be playing third for the O’s next season. If true, it doesn’t seem that EE would be of the same value in working out a trade for Bedard. With Hamilton gone already we probably would have to give up Bruce or too much pitching to get him now. I still want another guy, but with less cost. Maybe Prior, Leiber or Sanchez. Sean Marshall could still be available.