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Kevin Goldstein, prospect guru at Baseball Prospectus (formerly w/ Baseball America, for you BP haters), offered his thoughts on the Rule 5 draft (Subscription). I was hoping that Kevin would find something in the move that we’d missed. Nope.
6. Reds select RHP Sergio Valenzeula from the Braves. This pick is a joke right? Valenzuela pitched 72 innings this year, split between Atlanta’s Low- and High-A teams. In those 72 innings, he gave up 102 hits while nearly walking (37) as many as he struck out (38). Sure, he’s got plus velocity, but he’s not fooling teams that have maybe, maybe three or future big leaguers on them, so what makes you think he’s going to suddenly have any chance in hell of getting an entire lineup full of big leaguers out?
Chances To Stick: Seriously, they really took Sergio Valenzuela?
Goldstein also commented on Carlos Guevara, taken from the Reds by the Marlins and then shipped to San Diego. “He’s a short and squat right-hander, with a screwball that batters have no clue what to do with, but like Bierd, the question with him is to whether or not he has enough velocity to set the pitch up against more advanced hitters.” The Padres drafted two other guys in the Rule 5, so there’s a very decent chance that Guevara might be coming back to the Reds (or at least that a trade will be worked out).
Would he come back to the Reds or offered back to the Marlins first?
The Reds cannot afford to make glaring mistakes like this.
I think he’d come right back to the Reds, Bill. I think the deal b/w Miami and San Diego is complete in and of itself.
It’s a stupid mistake, but it only becomes a truly glaring mistake if Krivsky insists on keeping him on the major league roster after he sports a 2.5 WHIP in the spring.
A headline in today’s Palm Beach Post says the Marlins are looking for a third baseman to replace Miguel Cabrera. How about EE for a couple of their young pitchers?
I’m beginning to believe that the Reds have plenty of pitching depth in the minors. Trading for young pitching prospects as an end to itself isn’t really what they need anymore (as unbelievable as that concept may seem, given the Reds’ history). What the Reds need right this second is a major-league-ready starter or two.
Note: John Sickels came out with his preliminary Reds’ Top 20 prospects today. It bears repeating again and again, because it sounds so great – “Good Lord. This system is loaded.”
Glad to see the Reds finally have some decent prospects…now can we turn them into a winning ballclub?
It’s very interesting to see Cueto ahead of Bailey. In fact, it’s really exciting.
Wow!
So it appears that the Red’s made the “Baseball Decision” to release Jorge Cantu, to enable them to choose a player in the Rule V draft that was incapable of even harnessing his 95 MPH fastball enough to strike out A ball players on a regular basis. Valenzuela did fare a bit better in the Mexican league, is this league equivalent to A? AA? There he has a 3.73 ERA, in 31 IP. He still has given up 31 H, 11 BB, and struck out only 12 with his dominent heat, good change, and decent slider. But hey, that is the best he’s done since 2005 in the GCL Rookie league. So he must be improving, but after a ~7.00 ERA in A ball in 2007, it’s hard not to.
On the bright side, with Livingston hurt, right now he only needs to beat out a sore armed Richie Gardner to be the #5 starter on opening day.
Seriously, I will be awed and forever impressed at the Red’s new scouting ability if Sergio is able to hold his own and remain on the Red’s roster for the 2008 season.
Sorry, the “Baseball Decision” to release Cantu to select Valenzuela reeks of the same old small market, penny pinching, salary dump (Cantu is due a raise in Arbitration), that Red’s fans have become accustomed to.
One big step forward with Cordero signing, here is the first small step back. I expect more until the positive move is fully negated.
I always have been a Cantu fan, so of course this move bothered me. I was excited when we picked him up and thought it would prove to be a move that looked real good. Maybe not Phillips and Hamilton good, but at least Hatteburg good, with a potential to be Phillips good. Giving him up in this fashion because of arbitration issues for this guy is crazy. I think he would have been reasonable even at the arb price and gives you some flexibility around the horn and some decent pop from the right side. I would not be surprised for him to have a bounce back season. Even if he is nothing more than a caretaker until Votto is ready he still serves a purpose which this guy does not. If he could have posted any decent numbers he or Hatte could have served as a chip come mid season and maybe we could have sold high. I hope there is something more to this move than is apparant, because what is apparent is that you have dumped a quality player for a rule V guy that hasn’t even had success in A ball. I agree with Tom, if this guy remotely contributes to a few wins I will repent in earnest and be ready to burn incense at the Krivsky scouting idol. Right now I just want to take a nap.