I know. We’re not used to blockbusters! (Reds’ 4th outfielder Wily Mo for Red Sox’s 6th starter Arroyo doesn’t count.) If this one’s true, hopefully it works out better than the Griffey showstopper trade, for players and team alike. I would need to let it sink in for a while before I start pronouncing it the end of the world or a work of genius, or something in between.
This can’t have been straight up . . . could it? I wonder who else was involved in this deal.
Listening to Daugherty (I think) at the moment, it sounds like this was just a rumor about an offer the Reds made, rather than a trade agreement. Excitement on hold.
In all of this lets not lose sight of Nuxy becoming a finalist for the Frick Award! I just hadn’t seen it mentioned yet and thought I would throw it out there.
I love getting Bedard even at the expense of Bailey. Bedard/Harang are as good of a 1-2 punch as any in the NL. Arroyo as a number 3 sounds pretty nice, too.
Tim from mlbtraderumors.com responded and he hasn’t heard anything like this. He won’t post a rumor, on his site unless it has some teeth, and so far this doesn’t.
Bedard is a freaking STUD he would be the future, NOW!! He is probably better than Bailey will EVER be!!!! Look at his numbers 3.16 ERA with a 10.9 K/ 9IP last year, oh by the way in the best FREAKING DIVISION in baseball.
I would like this to be true, but it doesnt seem possible to me that the Reds would be able to get Bedard for Bailey straight up. If they can, do that trade in less than one second.
not giving up on him, I don’t want him gone, I feel that Bedard has been the real thing for a couple years and one of the best in perhaps the toughest division in baseball. How could the Reds turn their back on that.
Once again, I don’t want bailey gone and would love a package with Dunn and someone else for Bedard but I don’t think its going to happen;
Can you even imagine the reds trading Bailey for Bedard and then packaging up some talent to steal lincecum from the Giants? Can you say playoffs anyone?
Baltimore article posted 30 minutes ago. I think it would take Bailey, Hamilton, and EE….. at least. Dodgers are throwing around Broxton, Kemp, and Kershaw.
If the Dodgers are offering Kershaw, Kemp and Broxton…. I don’t want the Reds to match that. Basically that would be like the Reds offering Bailey, Hamilton and Jared Burton.
You’d pretty much have to make this trade, I think. The only downside is that Bedard is only under contract for 2 more years (and should be arb-eligible and earning good money), while Bailey should be under control for at least 5 more seasons.
But Bedard’s in his prime, strikes a lot of guys out, and really keeps the ball in the park. Adding him in as 1B to Harang’s 1A would give the Reds a 1-2 punch better than anyone in the league. (Bedard would’ve bumped Harang from the 7th spot in VORP, if he’d been in the NL).
Bailey and Hamilton is not a problem. You get Bedard you don’t need bailey, who is quite possibly not ready yet anyhow. Hamilton has not been a dependable starter and with Hopper and bruce waiting in the wings you can afford to send him packing while his stock is still high. Burton we can’t really afford to let go and apparently the O’s do need relief/closer help. I’d much rather consider giving them Weathers! Or even better Majewski. Anyhow, if we have a chance to add Bedard to the rotation we do whatever we have to do to make it happen, and patch the holes afterwards.
Another thing, if the Reds trade Bailey, they still need to acquire another starting pitcher. The starters on the 40 man roster as of right now are:
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Belisle
Livingston
Gardner
Livingston probably won’t be ready to start next year due to shoulder surgery, and even then, is he going to be good enough? And Gardner just isn’t very likely to break camp with the Reds rotation….
Yea but with Arroyo, harang, Bedard you got guys that are proven inning eaters. This basically solves the bullpen and you patch together the back end of the rotation with guys like Belisle, Cueto, Shearn, Elizardo, Livingston, anyone. I am not nearly concerned with the back end of the rotation as everyone else is… you just ride a hot hand or keep trying different guys out. Its way easier of a dilemma than a proven #2 or #3 guy which is what we seek now.
Why would u kill hammy by trading him
GRIFFEY IS OLD!
he will be gone soon.
then once again a hole in the outfield
trade stubbs hopper and griffey for Bedard
except griffey could reject it
I’m a little torn about this. I saw Bedard pitch in Texas this summer and he held the Rangers to the minimum number of batters in a complete game shutout. He is the real deal, I’m just not sure he should command more than Santana.
As good as Bedard is/will be, he is not Johan and probably never will be. I understand he is under team control for 2 years as opposed to Santana’s 1, but Santana is arguably the best pitcher of his generation. I just don’t think Bailey/Votto/prospect are worth it. I would do Cueto/Votto or Cueto/EE but I just think the Orioles are going to come away with too much.
Well, I’d do this in a heartbeat! I’d trade Hamilton (who had 1 really good year), Bailey (who, for lack of better words, didn’t exactly impress last year), and pretty much anyone they want out of the bullpen (excluding our new closer). Think of it this way, Bailey MIGHT make it big, Bedard already has. Hamilton MIGHT keep up his pace, but we’ve got Dunn, Griffey, Bruce, Votto, and a slew of others who rotate between 1b and the outfield. And the bullpen guy – who cares really…we’ve got more of them we toss out there (Shearn, EZ, etc).
i’m shocked that so many people are eager to trade a piece of our already short rotation. we have a surplus of offensive players, not starting pitchers.
bailey could be as good as bedard this year, and he’s cheap and under control for a long time. unless the reds have seen something they don’t like, then bailey is untouchable to me.
do i like bedard? of course, and i’d give up a package for him for sure. i’d probably give up hamilton, votto and ede for him, even if it was overpaying some. but that’s because we’d still have a decent OF, 3B (kepps), and 1b (hatte & cantu).
then we have a rotation of harang, bedard, arroyo, bailey, cueto et al. and we’re actually a good ball club.
we need to match up with a team that will give up pitching for offense, not a team that’s looking to take what little pitching we have.
First of all, Bedard is a proven ace of a staff in the toughest of all pitching divisions.
Secondly, after the Cordero signing, we are clearly shifting into “win now” mode.
Thirdly, Bailey and Hamilton are great “potentially” and Bedard is great now. The Orioles would never do a trade without at least two top prospects and a guy to play now and why would they? Bedard is under contract for 2 more years and they can deal him whenever.
I’ve been waiting for Bailey as long as the rest of us, but let us be reasonable, you just never know if he will become what is expected of him? If we could get Bedard, I say pay the price and get him.
I am amazed at the turn this conversation has taken. I agree with Al: We need starting pitching, so there is no way that I part with Baily now. Even if Baily does not turn out to be the Next Nolan Ryan, he will be by all accounts a good middle of the rotation guy. That is what we need. I like Bedard as well, but J Santana he ain’t. Let’s not get crazy with the offers. Keep Baily, sign a serviceable #3, and let’s play ball. I am suprised by how quickly the blogosphere is touting trading Hobbs and Homer for anything short of Cy Young himself. Just a short time ago these guys were considered untouchable. Do not trade a servicable starter (especially one who has the upside of a Baily)for another middle of the rotation guy. We need to be collecting those, not exchanging them.
You are going to overpay for pitching. Period. Did we overpay for Cordero? Absolutely. But I think it was a needed move and I’m happy to have him. Since pitching is at such a premium, I don’t think we sell the ranch for a Bedard. I would rather just sell the guest house for a #3 and keep the pitching we have.
There’s no way I make Johan Santana type offers for Bedard, and that’s what Baltimore has been looking for.
Bedard has put up Santana type numbers once – 2007. And that is in reference to ERA & K/IP only since he only made 28 starts.
Bedard has never pitched over 200 innings.
Bedard has only once made more than 30 starts in a season.
Santana has had excellent major league numbers every season starting with the 2002 season.
33+ starts, 200+ IP, 200+K, 15+ Wins for 4 consecutive seasons.
Sub 3.00 ERA in 3 of the past 4 seasons.
They are the same age (actually both born in March 1979.)
Excellent sell high candidate for Baltimore, but if I were another team, I would not be offering 3 prospects of the caliber that Minnesota is expecting for Santana.
Haren is still my guy. His numbers are sick. If Beane is asking for the same in return Bailey, Hamilton, mid level prospect, then go for Haren. He won’t be a free agent for 3 years.
Bedard is my second choice. Especially if we can wrestle Lincecum away from the Giants for EdE.
My #1 guy is Lincecum — already looking dominant, and he’s only got about a half a year experience in the majors. He’d be under control (and fairly cheap) for a long time.
Bedard is great, but you’d have him for 2 years and then either lose him or give him the contract of his lifetime to extend him — FAR beyond what Harang and Arroyo got.
My 2nd choice after Lincecum (if we don’t want to give up so much in trade) is another Giant — Jonathan Sanchez, a LHP. I really think he’s going to be good, but he hasn’t gotten there yet. (Therefore we shouldn’t have to give up as much.)
I posted these numbers in another thread, but check out this dominance. (I love high-K, low-HR guys.)
One of the things that can make a pitcher be undervalued, I think, is if he’s coming off a year in which he gave up an unusually high BABIP (batting average on balls in play — meaning you throw out the K’s and HR’s).
Pitchers have far less control than you’d think over BABIP. (Not none, but much less than you’d think). It just isn’t a repeatable “skill.” Pitchers who gave up a bad (high) BABIP aren’t “bad at it”… they just got unlucky. They’re likely to go right back to around the league average next season.
(League average BABIP is around .310, I think.)
Pitchers who gave up a bad BABIP will have bad-looking stats for that year — this will mean you may be able to get them “cheap” — but you really can reasonably expect them to be more effective the next year.
The classic example I’m aware of from this past year was Heath Bell.
Bell has a career BABIP of .324 now, but in 2006 his BABIP was .398 — incredibly high. So, his 2006 stats looked bad.
The Padres got him cheap, and sure enough he reverted way back. (Actually he reverted to being unusually lucky rather than unlucky — 2007 BABIP of .258.)
Largely as a result of that, here are Heath Bell’s ERA’s the last two years:
2006 – 5.11 ERA
2007 – 2.02 ERA
I’m being really long-winded, but MY POINT IS THIS…
Find guys w/ high BABIP’s this past season and target them! They’re likely to be undervalued.
Jonathan Sanchez’s BABIP in 2007 was .368. Very good chance that that improves by 50 points or more in 2008.
Plus he’s young, could start or relieve, and shows very nice K rates… I’m a fan.
I’ll get off my soapbox now… Maybe it’s time for me to, um, do a little work.
First of all, it will take MUCH more than Encarnacion to get Lincecum. Probably something like Votto/Hamilton/EdE or more. Also, his motion is nuts. He is going to get hurt. If they do anything, it should be for Bedard. Asking price on Haren is WAY too high for the Reds.
Just another tidbit…According to mlbtraderumors.com, Reds are looking at Boomer Wells making a return.
I was actually wondering about David Wells myself. He’d be a capable, cost effective fill-in while Cueto starts the year in AAA. Got to like a low risk, decent return investment that would only be for one year and wouldn’t cost the team any players.
Re #50: The reason Bedard can command a similar (not identical) package to Santana is that Bedard is under control for two more years. Anyone trading for Santana knows that they have to immediately negotiate a contract extension that will kick up his price this year and for five (six?) more years.
That brings his trade value down to something closer to Bedard’s, even though Santana is the better player.
Bailey/Cueto/Votto/EdE/Hamilton/Bruce
I don’t package any of those three away for Bedard. You’re putting too much value on Bedard’s most recent season. Too much injury & mean reversion risk, IMO.
What does trading so many prospects for 1 player (whether it be Santana, Bedard, whoever) do for 2009? What’s the OF look like? Does Dunn stay? I’m assuming they don’t pick up Griffey’s $16 million option. What’s the pitching depth look like?
If they make a deal, they lose the depth that they’ve been taking so long to build. And with the Cordero signing, they’ve lost 1st & 2nd round picks in 2008. So unless there’s more gems in the minor league system, major trades they make really have to pay off or it will set this franchise back another 5 years.
I think Boomer is not a good fit in Great American Ballpark, but a free agent who is still out there and has proven to be a good middle/back end of rotation guy and affordable is Josh Fogg – Rockies.
Give Tomko a one year deal and bring in Fogg for two or three while Cueto develops and lets win this division now!
Alex – I wasn’t suggesting that EdE alone would bring in Lincecum. However, he would likely be the center of the deal since the Giants need a 3b and outfield. I guess the Jays are proposing Alex Rios for Lincecum suggesting 3b isn’t definite, but certainly that is a hole.
GregD – I understand concerns over Bedard. Instead of looking solely at last season, look at his numbers progress throughout his career. Everything is going the direction you want: ERA down every year, K/BB up every year, WHIP down every year, BAA down every year. This is a guy very much like Harang who has been steadily improving under the radar to the point where he is close to becoming dominate. Give him the one year bump by switching leagues and should have a great 08 with the Reds. If he dips in 09 then the Reds have some leverage.
I am not so worried about the outfield in the future. If there is one thing this organization can do, it is develop position players, namely outfielders.
The reason we have been out of the champion’s chair since ‘90 is because of pitching and I say we should do whatever we need to get the best pitching possible, not hold onto “potential” aces when they can be used to get “actual” aces. Pitching wins…period.
Possible rotation:
1. Bedard
2. Harang
3. Arroyo
4. J. Fogg/D. Wells (FA’s)
5. Tomko/Cueto/Livingston
I’d say any of those combo’s would be good enough to win the Central. Bedard is a dream that will never happen though.
I can’t believe anyone is considering David Wells. He’s 44 and had an ERA+ of 77 last year and his WHIP has climbed the last 3 years. Pass on David Wells thanks.
I’m not sure I package even 2 of these guys (Cueto/Bailey/Votto/Hamilton/EE) for Bedard.
I don’t trade Jay Bruce for anyone. Period. I don’t know how many of you have seen him, I’ve seen him play probably 20-25 times (GCL, A, A+ levels) and he is very special, IMO, a no doubt future superstar baring injury.
I was just about to post that a Cueto/Hamilton/EE for Bedard trade would be fair. Then I went to some Orioles blogs. They all talk about Bedard like he’s already a free agent. People mentioned trying to get “at least some B level prospects” for him. It doesn’t make me think less of Bedard, and I know they supposedly have some good offers from LA and NY, but what if we could scale some of this talk back to an ” EdE/Votto” level before give anybody any ideas…
Harang-Bedard-Arroyo is a very nice 1-2-3. I would trade in a heartbeat for him, even if it meant parting with Bailey. and having it a straight up deal.
2009 stats: Sarasota 2-1 8 Games 8 Games Started 42.1 IP 4.89 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Carolina 3-2 6 Game 6 Game Started 36 2/3 IP 2.95 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Louisville 2-2 5 Game 5 Game Started 29 IP 2.48 ERA 1.21 WHIP
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The Big Board -- In-Depth Reds Organizational Depth Chart (updated 2/23/10)
Salary Chart -- Our chart on the current and future contract status for the Reds roster (updated 2/23/10)
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Holy god. Here we go.
I don’t know whether or not I like this but it’s such a huge deal that it’s scary.
I know. We’re not used to blockbusters! (Reds’ 4th outfielder Wily Mo for Red Sox’s 6th starter Arroyo doesn’t count.) If this one’s true, hopefully it works out better than the Griffey showstopper trade, for players and team alike. I would need to let it sink in for a while before I start pronouncing it the end of the world or a work of genius, or something in between.
This can’t have been straight up . . . could it? I wonder who else was involved in this deal.
It has been 30 minutes since your post and I haven’t found anything confirming the trade. Does anyone have a link? Color me skeptical.
Well, it is fourth-hand info. It’s intriguing, for sure.
Listening to Daugherty (I think) at the moment, it sounds like this was just a rumor about an offer the Reds made, rather than a trade agreement. Excitement on hold.
Maybe Steven A. Smith is right about bloggers.
I can’t take this December….
Bedard would have a 0.05 ERA in the Central!!!!!!!
I sent a note to mlbtraderumors.com to confirm. This would be huge.
Initially I didn’t know how to react, but I think this would be a good thing. Harang and Bedard as a one-two punch would be pretty solid.
In all of this lets not lose sight of Nuxy becoming a finalist for the Frick Award! I just hadn’t seen it mentioned yet and thought I would throw it out there.
I love getting Bedard even at the expense of Bailey. Bedard/Harang are as good of a 1-2 punch as any in the NL. Arroyo as a number 3 sounds pretty nice, too.
I kind of hope this is true
Tim from mlbtraderumors.com responded and he hasn’t heard anything like this. He won’t post a rumor, on his site unless it has some teeth, and so far this doesn’t.
But it would be freaking awesome!!!!
MAN!
they better not trade their future for some guy who has played well once or twice
once or twice?!?!?! Bedard led the AL in K’s most of the year last year, ended up with over 200 and had a 3.16 ERA.
He is only 28 too. That is older than Bailey but obviously the Reds are looking to win now.
Bedard is a freaking STUD he would be the future, NOW!! He is probably better than Bailey will EVER be!!!! Look at his numbers 3.16 ERA with a 10.9 K/ 9IP last year, oh by the way in the best FREAKING DIVISION in baseball.
freakin stud
I Redlegnation created this post is just to mess with us, to guage the readers’s loyalty to Bailey.
If so, I guess I failed!
BRING IN BEDARD!!!!!
he didnt play that great his first two seasons he has played decent i like him but i dont want bailey gone
trade stubbs and hopper and ross for him
why would Baltimore trade Bedard for someone worse?
I would like this to be true, but it doesnt seem possible to me that the Reds would be able to get Bedard for Bailey straight up. If they can, do that trade in less than one second.
we have waited for bailey all these years just to give up on him
not giving up on him, I don’t want him gone, I feel that Bedard has been the real thing for a couple years and one of the best in perhaps the toughest division in baseball. How could the Reds turn their back on that.
Once again, I don’t want bailey gone and would love a package with Dunn and someone else for Bedard but I don’t think its going to happen;
Fay has an article discussing this, as usually nothing is confirmed, but I really hope they get this done.
You can tell that John Fay does too!!
I hate the Cubs, just wanted to say that
Can you even imagine the reds trading Bailey for Bedard and then packaging up some talent to steal lincecum from the Giants? Can you say playoffs anyone?
can you say world series to play the newly updated Detroit Tigers
I hope its true but this smells like an unfounded rumor to me.
i like the smell of it
Apparently Daugherty is at the meetings.. I didn’t realize that… so perhaps there is some bite to this rumor.
Does anyone know how much time Bedard has left on his contract?
Baltimore article posted 30 minutes ago. I think it would take Bailey, Hamilton, and EE….. at least. Dodgers are throwing around Broxton, Kemp, and Kershaw.
I think he is under control for 2008 and 2009.
Above is a link in red
If the Dodgers are offering Kershaw, Kemp and Broxton…. I don’t want the Reds to match that. Basically that would be like the Reds offering Bailey, Hamilton and Jared Burton.
You’d pretty much have to make this trade, I think. The only downside is that Bedard is only under contract for 2 more years (and should be arb-eligible and earning good money), while Bailey should be under control for at least 5 more seasons.
But Bedard’s in his prime, strikes a lot of guys out, and really keeps the ball in the park. Adding him in as 1B to Harang’s 1A would give the Reds a 1-2 punch better than anyone in the league. (Bedard would’ve bumped Harang from the 7th spot in VORP, if he’d been in the NL).
Bailey and Hamilton is not a problem. You get Bedard you don’t need bailey, who is quite possibly not ready yet anyhow. Hamilton has not been a dependable starter and with Hopper and bruce waiting in the wings you can afford to send him packing while his stock is still high. Burton we can’t really afford to let go and apparently the O’s do need relief/closer help. I’d much rather consider giving them Weathers! Or even better Majewski. Anyhow, if we have a chance to add Bedard to the rotation we do whatever we have to do to make it happen, and patch the holes afterwards.
Another thing, if the Reds trade Bailey, they still need to acquire another starting pitcher. The starters on the 40 man roster as of right now are:
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Belisle
Livingston
Gardner
Livingston probably won’t be ready to start next year due to shoulder surgery, and even then, is he going to be good enough? And Gardner just isn’t very likely to break camp with the Reds rotation….
Bailey + Hamilton is pretty steep, but maybe still something you consider.
Penny + Bedard would sure be pretty tough. Nobody’s going to score in that division: Peavy, Young, Maddux, Webb, Lincecum, Cain, Francis, Jiminez…
Yea but with Arroyo, harang, Bedard you got guys that are proven inning eaters. This basically solves the bullpen and you patch together the back end of the rotation with guys like Belisle, Cueto, Shearn, Elizardo, Livingston, anyone. I am not nearly concerned with the back end of the rotation as everyone else is… you just ride a hot hand or keep trying different guys out. Its way easier of a dilemma than a proven #2 or #3 guy which is what we seek now.
Why would u kill hammy by trading him
GRIFFEY IS OLD!
he will be gone soon.
then once again a hole in the outfield
trade stubbs hopper and griffey for Bedard
except griffey could reject it
Just a few comments on Bedard…
I’m a little torn about this. I saw Bedard pitch in Texas this summer and he held the Rangers to the minimum number of batters in a complete game shutout. He is the real deal, I’m just not sure he should command more than Santana.
As good as Bedard is/will be, he is not Johan and probably never will be. I understand he is under team control for 2 years as opposed to Santana’s 1, but Santana is arguably the best pitcher of his generation. I just don’t think Bailey/Votto/prospect are worth it. I would do Cueto/Votto or Cueto/EE but I just think the Orioles are going to come away with too much.
Well, I’d do this in a heartbeat! I’d trade Hamilton (who had 1 really good year), Bailey (who, for lack of better words, didn’t exactly impress last year), and pretty much anyone they want out of the bullpen (excluding our new closer). Think of it this way, Bailey MIGHT make it big, Bedard already has. Hamilton MIGHT keep up his pace, but we’ve got Dunn, Griffey, Bruce, Votto, and a slew of others who rotate between 1b and the outfield. And the bullpen guy – who cares really…we’ve got more of them we toss out there (Shearn, EZ, etc).
i’m shocked that so many people are eager to trade a piece of our already short rotation. we have a surplus of offensive players, not starting pitchers.
bailey could be as good as bedard this year, and he’s cheap and under control for a long time. unless the reds have seen something they don’t like, then bailey is untouchable to me.
do i like bedard? of course, and i’d give up a package for him for sure. i’d probably give up hamilton, votto and ede for him, even if it was overpaying some. but that’s because we’d still have a decent OF, 3B (kepps), and 1b (hatte & cantu).
then we have a rotation of harang, bedard, arroyo, bailey, cueto et al. and we’re actually a good ball club.
we need to match up with a team that will give up pitching for offense, not a team that’s looking to take what little pitching we have.
the thing is bailey was hurt when he pitched bad
when he was healthy he tossed gems
First of all, Bedard is a proven ace of a staff in the toughest of all pitching divisions.
Secondly, after the Cordero signing, we are clearly shifting into “win now” mode.
Thirdly, Bailey and Hamilton are great “potentially” and Bedard is great now. The Orioles would never do a trade without at least two top prospects and a guy to play now and why would they? Bedard is under contract for 2 more years and they can deal him whenever.
I’ve been waiting for Bailey as long as the rest of us, but let us be reasonable, you just never know if he will become what is expected of him? If we could get Bedard, I say pay the price and get him.
Go Reds!
I am amazed at the turn this conversation has taken. I agree with Al: We need starting pitching, so there is no way that I part with Baily now. Even if Baily does not turn out to be the Next Nolan Ryan, he will be by all accounts a good middle of the rotation guy. That is what we need. I like Bedard as well, but J Santana he ain’t. Let’s not get crazy with the offers. Keep Baily, sign a serviceable #3, and let’s play ball. I am suprised by how quickly the blogosphere is touting trading Hobbs and Homer for anything short of Cy Young himself. Just a short time ago these guys were considered untouchable. Do not trade a servicable starter (especially one who has the upside of a Baily)for another middle of the rotation guy. We need to be collecting those, not exchanging them.
Agree 100%, preach.
Bedard is not a middle of the rotation guy. He was the best pitcher in baseball before being shut down at the end of the year last year.
I’d like to see the Reds acquire Bedard but I don’t think they get him without overpaying for him. I don’t want them to overpay.
You are going to overpay for pitching. Period. Did we overpay for Cordero? Absolutely. But I think it was a needed move and I’m happy to have him. Since pitching is at such a premium, I don’t think we sell the ranch for a Bedard. I would rather just sell the guest house for a #3 and keep the pitching we have.
There’s no way I make Johan Santana type offers for Bedard, and that’s what Baltimore has been looking for.
Bedard has put up Santana type numbers once – 2007. And that is in reference to ERA & K/IP only since he only made 28 starts.
Bedard has never pitched over 200 innings.
Bedard has only once made more than 30 starts in a season.
Santana has had excellent major league numbers every season starting with the 2002 season.
33+ starts, 200+ IP, 200+K, 15+ Wins for 4 consecutive seasons.
Sub 3.00 ERA in 3 of the past 4 seasons.
They are the same age (actually both born in March 1979.)
Excellent sell high candidate for Baltimore, but if I were another team, I would not be offering 3 prospects of the caliber that Minnesota is expecting for Santana.
Haren is still my guy. His numbers are sick. If Beane is asking for the same in return Bailey, Hamilton, mid level prospect, then go for Haren. He won’t be a free agent for 3 years.
Bedard is my second choice. Especially if we can wrestle Lincecum away from the Giants for EdE.
My #1 guy is Lincecum — already looking dominant, and he’s only got about a half a year experience in the majors. He’d be under control (and fairly cheap) for a long time.
Bedard is great, but you’d have him for 2 years and then either lose him or give him the contract of his lifetime to extend him — FAR beyond what Harang and Arroyo got.
My 2nd choice after Lincecum (if we don’t want to give up so much in trade) is another Giant — Jonathan Sanchez, a LHP. I really think he’s going to be good, but he hasn’t gotten there yet. (Therefore we shouldn’t have to give up as much.)
I posted these numbers in another thread, but check out this dominance. (I love high-K, low-HR guys.)
Tim Lincecum
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Tim-Lincecum.shtml
Jonathan Sanchez
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Jonathan-Sanchez.shtml
One more thing about Sanchez…
One of the things that can make a pitcher be undervalued, I think, is if he’s coming off a year in which he gave up an unusually high BABIP (batting average on balls in play — meaning you throw out the K’s and HR’s).
Pitchers have far less control than you’d think over BABIP. (Not none, but much less than you’d think). It just isn’t a repeatable “skill.” Pitchers who gave up a bad (high) BABIP aren’t “bad at it”… they just got unlucky. They’re likely to go right back to around the league average next season.
(League average BABIP is around .310, I think.)
Pitchers who gave up a bad BABIP will have bad-looking stats for that year — this will mean you may be able to get them “cheap” — but you really can reasonably expect them to be more effective the next year.
The classic example I’m aware of from this past year was Heath Bell.
Bell has a career BABIP of .324 now, but in 2006 his BABIP was .398 — incredibly high. So, his 2006 stats looked bad.
The Padres got him cheap, and sure enough he reverted way back. (Actually he reverted to being unusually lucky rather than unlucky — 2007 BABIP of .258.)
Largely as a result of that, here are Heath Bell’s ERA’s the last two years:
2006 – 5.11 ERA
2007 – 2.02 ERA
I’m being really long-winded, but MY POINT IS THIS…
Find guys w/ high BABIP’s this past season and target them! They’re likely to be undervalued.
Jonathan Sanchez’s BABIP in 2007 was .368. Very good chance that that improves by 50 points or more in 2008.
Plus he’s young, could start or relieve, and shows very nice K rates… I’m a fan.
I’ll get off my soapbox now… Maybe it’s time for me to, um, do a little work.
First of all, it will take MUCH more than Encarnacion to get Lincecum. Probably something like Votto/Hamilton/EdE or more. Also, his motion is nuts. He is going to get hurt. If they do anything, it should be for Bedard. Asking price on Haren is WAY too high for the Reds.
Just another tidbit…According to mlbtraderumors.com, Reds are looking at Boomer Wells making a return.
The reds would be crazy to trade bailey. he is going to be a stud. would there be any possibility the reds can build a deal for a pitcher around eddy?
I was actually wondering about David Wells myself. He’d be a capable, cost effective fill-in while Cueto starts the year in AAA. Got to like a low risk, decent return investment that would only be for one year and wouldn’t cost the team any players.
Wells is toast.
Re #50: The reason Bedard can command a similar (not identical) package to Santana is that Bedard is under control for two more years. Anyone trading for Santana knows that they have to immediately negotiate a contract extension that will kick up his price this year and for five (six?) more years.
That brings his trade value down to something closer to Bedard’s, even though Santana is the better player.
Bailey/Cueto/Votto/EdE/Hamilton/Bruce
I don’t package any of those three away for Bedard. You’re putting too much value on Bedard’s most recent season. Too much injury & mean reversion risk, IMO.
What does trading so many prospects for 1 player (whether it be Santana, Bedard, whoever) do for 2009? What’s the OF look like? Does Dunn stay? I’m assuming they don’t pick up Griffey’s $16 million option. What’s the pitching depth look like?
If they make a deal, they lose the depth that they’ve been taking so long to build. And with the Cordero signing, they’ve lost 1st & 2nd round picks in 2008. So unless there’s more gems in the minor league system, major trades they make really have to pay off or it will set this franchise back another 5 years.
I think Boomer is not a good fit in Great American Ballpark, but a free agent who is still out there and has proven to be a good middle/back end of rotation guy and affordable is Josh Fogg – Rockies.
Give Tomko a one year deal and bring in Fogg for two or three while Cueto develops and lets win this division now!
I’m pumped for the season.
Alex – I wasn’t suggesting that EdE alone would bring in Lincecum. However, he would likely be the center of the deal since the Giants need a 3b and outfield. I guess the Jays are proposing Alex Rios for Lincecum suggesting 3b isn’t definite, but certainly that is a hole.
GregD – I understand concerns over Bedard. Instead of looking solely at last season, look at his numbers progress throughout his career. Everything is going the direction you want: ERA down every year, K/BB up every year, WHIP down every year, BAA down every year. This is a guy very much like Harang who has been steadily improving under the radar to the point where he is close to becoming dominate. Give him the one year bump by switching leagues and should have a great 08 with the Reds. If he dips in 09 then the Reds have some leverage.
I am not so worried about the outfield in the future. If there is one thing this organization can do, it is develop position players, namely outfielders.
The reason we have been out of the champion’s chair since ‘90 is because of pitching and I say we should do whatever we need to get the best pitching possible, not hold onto “potential” aces when they can be used to get “actual” aces. Pitching wins…period.
Possible rotation:
1. Bedard
2. Harang
3. Arroyo
4. J. Fogg/D. Wells (FA’s)
5. Tomko/Cueto/Livingston
I’d say any of those combo’s would be good enough to win the Central. Bedard is a dream that will never happen though.
I can’t believe anyone is considering David Wells. He’s 44 and had an ERA+ of 77 last year and his WHIP has climbed the last 3 years. Pass on David Wells thanks.
I’m not sure I package even 2 of these guys (Cueto/Bailey/Votto/Hamilton/EE) for Bedard.
I don’t trade Jay Bruce for anyone. Period. I don’t know how many of you have seen him, I’ve seen him play probably 20-25 times (GCL, A, A+ levels) and he is very special, IMO, a no doubt future superstar baring injury.
For some reason we just released Cantu. Doesn’t make any sense…
Aargh. I liked Cantu. The Reds are also looking at Jon Lieber, I just heard. Not a bad fourth or fifth guy if he comes on the cheap.
The only way you make the deal for Bedard is if you can sign him to an extension.
I was just about to post that a Cueto/Hamilton/EE for Bedard trade would be fair. Then I went to some Orioles blogs. They all talk about Bedard like he’s already a free agent. People mentioned trying to get “at least some B level prospects” for him. It doesn’t make me think less of Bedard, and I know they supposedly have some good offers from LA and NY, but what if we could scale some of this talk back to an ” EdE/Votto” level before give anybody any ideas…
I see in addition to Lieber they are looking at Glendon Rusch. Maybe they could instead sign him just to throw batting practice to Arroyo
Harang-Rusch would be an unstoppable 1-2 punch.
Harang-Bedard-Arroyo is a very nice 1-2-3. I would trade in a heartbeat for him, even if it meant parting with Bailey. and having it a straight up deal.