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The biggest question for the Reds is whether to trade a young position player such as first baseman/outfielder Joey Votto for pitching when the contracts of outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn expire after this season. The Reds almost certainly will not move their top position prospect, outfielder Jay Bruce, but they could be open-minded on Josh Hamilton. Some executives believe that Hamilton’s past substance abuse left his body more susceptible to injury and illness…
Of the Reds position players that they can trade (Griffey and Dunn are basically untradeable b/c of their time of service and contracts), the one I’d most be willing to give up would be Hamilton. With Johnny Narron not being brought back, Josh will be “on his own” this year, which is a concern despite his remarkable comeback last year. Also his injury history is a big red flag.
Trading him might turn out to be a huge mistake, but if the Reds believe they can contend this season, they’re going to have to make some trades and some will be gambles.
The Phillies’ signing of left-hander J.C. Romero to a three-year, $12 million contract was only the beginning. One general manager seeking bullpen help says those terms likely will be the minimum for a number of free-agent relievers.
Closer Francisco Cordero already has received a four-year offer from an unidentified team, the G.M. says, and set-up types such as right-handers Scott Linebrink, LaTroy Hawkins and David Riske as well as lefties Ron Mahay and Jeremy Affeldt figure to strike it rich.
Kevin Towers has shown that you can assemble a good bullpen without breaking the bank, if you’re smart. The problem is that Wayne Krivsky and his staff have shown no ability to identify pitching talent. His next successful bullpen signing will be his first with the Reds.
Trading Hobbs is dumb any way you slice it. His numbers (and the injury suspicion) don’t yet warrant the kind of return we would expect. We’d be selling low. Factor in the peanuts the guy will be making the next 5 years, and it makes even less sense to trade him. Trading Griffey is priority #1. Trading him, eating a hefty bit of salary, and using that money to get some pitching is the only way to compete in this putrid division. Bruce and a healthy Hamilton will easily replace his numbers. I think this team finally has some trading chips down in the lower minors as well as some cash to spend. Even if it’s just one quality setup guy, it’ll be money well spent. Seriously, if we’d had that one legit guy this year, we would’ve been .500 and buyers at the trade deadline. But Krivsky bought on the cheap. Reminds me of a song, ‘$1000 Car’ (the Mike Stanton song) by the Bottle Rockets:
A thousand dollar car it ain’t worth nothin’
A thousand dollar car it ain’t worth shit.
Might as well take your thousand dollars,
and set fire to it.
A thousand dollar car ain’t worth a dime,
You lose your thousand dollars every time.
Oh why did I ever buy,
a thousand dollar car?
a thousand dollar car is gonna let you down,
More than it’s ever gonna get you around.
Replace your gaskets and paint over your rust,
You’ll still end up with something that you’ll never trust.
a thousand dollar car’s life was through,
about 50,000 miles before it got to you.
Oh why did I ever buy,
a thousand dollar car?
A thousand dollar car ain’t even gonna roll,
til you go at least another thousand in the hole.
Sink your money in it, and there you are
the owner of a two thousand dollar thousand dollar car……
Only problem is Griffey isn’t tradeable. He’s a 10-5 guy, which means if they find a team he’s willing to go to, that team has all the leverage in a trade. In addition there is the chase for 600 which I believe the Reds think will put people in the stands. Face it, Griffey’s going to be through ‘08.
As for trading Hamilton, it’s a risk. If last year was what you can expect from him…good numbers, when he’s healthy, but on the DL quite a bit, his value is never going to climb. In fact, I’d suggest that a more complete history would hurt his value. And that’s assuming that he doesn’t relapse, which would mean you got nothing when you could have gotten something.
“The problem is that Wayne Krivsky and his staff have shown no ability to identify pitching talent. His next successful bullpen signing will be his first with the Reds.”
Mostly you’re right, ceptin’ that Jared Burton kid.
Trading away Hamilton would be about as dumb as it gets. We need pitching. That’s for sure, but Hamilton is one of those guys you can build a team around. I think that it is more likely that Freel will be on the trading block.
I don’t see the pitching problems changing much until Griffey’s contract is finished. After that, the Reds need to sign 2 quality free agent pitchers with that money.
Trading away Hamilton would be about as dumb as it gets.
I think it all depends on the context of who you’d get in return. Trading any single player isn’t “dumb” without knowing what you would get in return.
It is also is worth considering whether the team expects Hamilton to be on the field more or less than Griffey. If you expect him to only be healthy for 80-100 games a year, then it makes sense to listen to offers from other team who value him as a potential 150+ game player.
This part makes little sense to me:
The biggest question for the Reds is whether to trade a young position player such as first baseman/outfielder Joey Votto for pitching when the contracts of outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn expire after this season.
Why would you trade Votto after Griffey and (presumably) Dunn are gone?
Trading anyone is never automatically smart or automatically dumb. You can’t ever make blanket statements like that.
The trick is the old adage – “buy low, sell high.” If the Reds have reason to believe that Hamilton’s value is at a peak right now, then maybe he should be shopped.
The ones that are easiest to say “Ah, we gotta get rid of that guy” are ALWAYS the guys you’d be selling low on — like Freel or Stanton. What sort of trade value do they have now? They’re old and overpaid. We’d get nothing for them.
“Buy low” is always fun to speculate on. (I’ve identified Carlos Quentin of Arizona as a guy who I think is at a low in value right now. Maybe Chris Capuano is too since he lost his rotation spot this year. I’d also insert any pitcher who had an unusually high BABIP here – that’s how the Padres got Heath Bell cheap.)
“Sell high” is the part that doesn’t always feel so good!
I think I’m starting to hear a media echo It sounds like the word “injury prone” is being attached to the name “Hamilton”. One season is hardly a trend or even an indicator of the direction a career will take. I don’t know how you can anticipate how many games a player will lose to injury during an upcoming season, based on his rookie year.
Its true Stanton and Freel would bring little in trade value. I was thinking, at least in the case of Freel, the Reds clearing some salary and a roster space for either Votto or Bruce. It seems they are intent on keeping Hatteberg.
Glenn, you don\’t think the fact that Josh has never played more than 96 games is any type of indication? I\’ve also heard the theory that his years of drug problems, etc have made him more susceptible to injury, which I can see as a possibility.
As for Freel and Stanton, sometimes you just trade/release someone to clear space or for addition by subtraction.
There’s the theory Bill discussed, and there’s the issue of Josh’s frequent DL visits even before his long absence from baseball.
Certainly, players can buck the trend and have a healthy playing streak. Austin Kearns is someone I can think of that was hurt in some way at least once a year for multiple years, but now has avoided the DL for 3 straight seasons and played in 161 games last year.
Good discussion everyone! I have been looking for something to happen in Reds-land for weeks, and this inactivity is truly frustrating! I mean, Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland? Why couldn’t the Reds have made that deal except trading Gonzo for Garland and then plugging Keppinger and maybe a new backup dude at short? I guess the Chisox probably would have wanted more than Gonzo, but maybe Freel and a bucket of balls would have been acceptable. At any rate, I sure hope we se some action soon. Not just action for the sake of action, but we’ve gotta change the mix a little, I feel, and then trust our youngsters to take up any slack. Look at Colorado’s youth movement as an example. Let Votto and Bruce play, dadgummit! And then pick up a couple of arms, starting and relieving. Get rid of Stanton and eat his contract or whatever it takes. We have a good nucleus to build around but need to make a few tweaks to compete in the weak NL central before St. Louis and/or Chicago rebuild and get too strong.
Also, about Hamilton. The dude was rusty after all the inactivity. Who is to say he is not going to be stronger/ healther than ever next year? Just get him on a nutrition and exercise plan, and give him some other mentor besides Narron. His upside is worth a bit of extra effort. I would not mind trading him though if Krivs could pull off another Pena for Arroyo type deal.
In regards to Hamilton, I think his biggest x-factor is relapse. The injuries don’t bother me so much because in effect we have a very cheap JD Drew. The longer Hamilton Distances himself more from his drug usage the higher his value will rise. Injury or no injury.
The fact that Hamilton has never played more than 96 games was due more to drug abuse than physical injury. I agree with Kurt, his greatest downside would be the possibility of a relaspe.
I’m not sure you could make the case that drug abuse in the past would come back in the form of pulled muscles and sprains later in life. I’m no scientist, and I’m open to be proven wrong by some competent medical authority, but that seems to me that, that sort of talk may fall under an urban legend/old wives tail/conspiracy theory.
My whole problem w/trading Hamilton comes from the thought of a future outfield of Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce. That could put the team in tall cotton for the next ten years.
Sure, several of those seasons were suspensions.
He missed the final month of 2000 with a knee injury that required surgery.
2001, a non-baseball related injury (car crash) that limited the start to his season. He had to shut it down multiple times for back and quadricep problems.
2002, back and shoulder injuries and a drug suspension.
2006, played his first game July 4, but had season ending knee surgery on July 29.
2007, stomach, wrist (swinging a bat in the on-deck circle) and hamstring.
I think the JD Drew comparison is an interesting one.
Sell Hamilton and cash in a a no rik flier. I mean comon guys. The comment above about the injuries, and the inability to handle the substances. Much less risk to get another chip, for free basically because Hamilton cost the reds nothing. “Cash out” and move on to anothe rtable before you blow it all.