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It’s official: Francisco Cordero is a Red. Most of the media coverage surrounding the Cordero signing over the last day or so has focused on manager Dusty Baker’s role in convincing Cordero to come to Cincinnati:

Players around baseball talk highly of Dusty Baker. The trickle-down effect from that was a huge factor in Francisco Cordero becoming a Cincinnati Red.

The $46 million the Reds will pay Cordero was the biggest thing, of course, but Corderoentioned the Dusty Factor several times Wednesday when he was introduced officially as a Red.

“Knowing Dusty Baker like I know him, watching him with the Cubs and Giants, he’s a great manager,” Cordero said. “I talked to a lot of people who played with him. They tell me I’m going to love to be part of a team that Dusty Baker is the manager of.

“He played a big role.”

Baker made a couple of calls to Cordero early in the free agency process.

“That said, they really want me to be here, they really want me to be a Cincinnati Red,” Cordero said.

I like this comment from GM Wayne Krivsky in Hal McCoy’s article:

“The goal is to make the bullpen better and the pitching staff better, period,” he said. “We’re still looking to make the pitching staff better. We’ve added a tremendous piece to the puzzle with Cordero holding down the ninth inning, but our goal is to make the team and pitching even better.”

As I’ve said before, I’m a fan of the Cordero signing. The contract was probably too high, but I can’t complain. The Reds are a better team today than they were a couple of weeks ago.

SI’s Tom Verducci names the Reds as the team most likely to be the 2008 version of the Rockies/Indians (i.e., a team that rebounds from garbage to the playoffs, without spending a gazillion dollars to remake their roster).

Essentially, this rebound would come from better luck, an improved bullpen, and the presence of a veteran manager.  Whether you agree with Verducci’s methodology, it’s always nice to read good things about the Reds.  This is the first time I’ve felt (guardedly) optimistic in a long time.  

(Thanks to reader Kerm for the tip).

I’m fairly confident about a few things about Francisco Cordero:

1. He’s going to be a pretty good pitcher, at least this year.

2. He’s only going to pitch 70-85 innings.

3. He’s going to make a lot of money.

The unanswered question will be how much value Cordero will bring to the Reds in those 70-85 IP. Most of that depends on manager Dusty Baker. A manager’s style of using his bullpen ace makes a big difference.

At one extreme, some managers (most?) let their decisions be dictated by a statistic — the closer only enters the game save situations (assuming he’s rested), never before the 9th inning, and he never enters the game if it’s not a save situation. The other style, essentially extinct now that Jack McKeon is retired, is to use the team’s best reliever in the highest leverage situation, which isn’t always the 9th inning.

The difference is illustrated by an example: Reds are up by two at home in the 8th. Brewers have runners on second and third, one out, and Braun is up with Fielder on deck. The game is clearly on the line, but I’d bet that fewer than half of the managers in baseball bring in the guy who’s presumably their best reliever. Instead, they chance it with the setup guy, and if he succeeds, they bring in the closer to start the 9th with the bases clear, a 2-run lead, and the bottom of the order coming up. In my opinion, that’s a big waste of your resources. Jerry Narron and Pete Mackanin, to their credit, used David Weathers to get almost every big out last year in the 8th or later.
Back to the point: Will Dusty Baker put his newest, most valuable asset to the most efficient use, or will Francisco Cordero sit in the bullpen and watch lesser pitchers blow saves in the 8th?

I’m not entirely sure how best to answer this question. I looked at FanGraphs’ pLI, but I think the raw pLi numbers are always skewed by the mere fact that the closer pitches the 9th. So I looked to game logs at baseball-reference, to see how Baker’s closers were used. I’m not going to reprint all of the raw data, but looking at the usage patterns for Dempster, Borowski, and Hawkins in Chicago, and Robb Nen and Rod Beck in SF, and it’s evident that for the most part, Baker’s closers will enter the game with nobody on in the 9th, and get their three outs. Only around 10% of their appearances will come with runners on base, or will be for more than one inning.

In contrast, even though Dave Weathers was the Reds’ closer for the entire 2007 season, 27% of his outings last year began in the 8th inning; 24% of the time he entered with runners on base; and 26% of the time he pitched more than 1 inning. All of these numbers are at least twice as high as any closer Baker has ever managed. (Obviously, a good deal of this was due to desperation — Weathers was the only reliever who could get anyone out for most of the year).

Dusty is pretty typical in his usage patterns, which let guys pile up saves, but doesn’t maximize their value to the club. Francisco Cordero will help the team the most when he’s getting the biggest outs, not just the last three.

My “analysis” is admittedly very rudimentary, so please chime in with your thoughts on how Baker will use Cordero.

Per Ken Rosenthal.

I do NOT like this move contract one bit.  (I think Cordero will probably be a good addition.  I just don’t like the dollars or contract length).   I’ll be back soon to explain why.  I’m confident that at least 20 relievers will be more productive over the span of this contract, AND will cost less than $10M for the whole period.  That’s not a knock on Cordero, it’s just the nature of the beast.
The Linebrink contract was silly. This one is for more than double the money.

Here’s why I don’t like this deal:

• Cordero will be 33-36 during this deal. Few relievers are effective beyond age 34.
• Cordero will be paid “closer money” four years from now. Few relievers remain at an elite level for four years, let alone seven or eight (assuming Cordero’s been elite for the past three).
• Nearly $12M per year is just stupid money for a guy who’ll pitch 65-75 innings. Even if Dusty Baker were to use Cordero in every high-leverage situation, it’s a bad use of resources. And I can only assume that Baker will use Cordero only in the 9th inning, and only with leads of 3 or fewer runs.
• By almost all accounts, Jared Burton has “closer stuff” and whatever intangible so-and-so needed to serve as closer, certainly as soon as 2009, at a price of around $600k. He’s now blocked by a guy making 20% more than Mariano Rivera.
• The Reds reportedly outbid the Brewers by $1M per year. Can’t like that.
• This presumably shoots the Reds wad for the 2007-08 off-season. And there’s still a hole in the rotation.
• Cordero isn’t even a “big name” to satisfy Joe Sweatsock. I’m sure most WLW callers are saying “who?” right now. (Not really a negative to me, but if you’re paying premium-plus prices, you’re probably trying to make a splash.)

The good news is that his strikeout and walk rates were as good as they’ve ever been, and he keeps the ball in the ballpark.

Your thoughts?

In an article that mainly deals with the return of the entire coaching staff to the Dayton Dragons, I found this from the DDN:

(Reds farm director Terry) Reynolds said the makeup of the Dragons will be different this season.

A year ago, the Reds moved most of the rookie Billings roster to Dayton at the same time, and it was an older group.

This year, Reynolds said there will be more competition for positions in spring training and the Dragons likely will be younger.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. In theory, this would mean that the better college age players from Billings last year will jump to Sarasota, while the younger HS guys (both Billings and GCL) would be in Dayton. I know at least one of our editors will be happy to see that the Reds are moving in this direction.

But, IMO, the Reds ownership also feels that they “owe” the fans in Dayton for their HUGE support over the years and reverting to the struggling teams of the pre-2007 years would be very unpopular in Dayton. Everyone realizes that the point of the minor league system is to get players ready and to the big leagues, but doesn’t the big club also owe something to the fans at every minor league level to have the opportunity to put a decent team on the field in exchange for their financial support?

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

Per ESPN.com, Scott Linebrink has signed with the White Sox for 4 years, $19M.  Linebrink’s 31, hasn’t really been anything special since 2005 (113 ERA+ each of the past two years), and has strikeout rates trending the wrong way.  No offense to Kenny Williams (who I’m sure is a reader), but this is a stupid contract.  It may not be crippling for the White Sox, but they’re going to regret it, probably as soon as 2008.

I read somewhere this week that the Reds could/should sign Linebrink for 2 years, $6M or something.  It sure sounded low at the time, and this is proof that the free agent market for relievers has picked up right where it left off last winter.  Not a time to be shopping for bullpen help.

From Jayson Stark of ESPN:

The Reds are so convinced that minor league player of the year Jay Bruce could be ready for the big leagues by June, they’re actively marketing outfielders to clear space. Don’t figure on Junior Griffey or Adam Dunn changing zip codes. But the Reds are aggressively dropping Ryan Freel’s name. And maybe most surprisingly, they’ve told other teams Josh Hamilton is also available in the right deal. “It really makes you wonder about his health,” said an official of one team that spoke with them, “and whether all that time he missed took more of a toll than we thought.”

I think they’d trade Freel for a bag of baseballs at this point. I believe they feel that Hopper is a cheaper version of the same player in the outfield (but better defensively) and Keppinger in the infield. With his last couple of seasons, Freel doesn’t have a lot of value, but he’s taking up a roster spot and if they can trade him, that’s salary off the books (another bad signing by Krivsky).

As for trading Hamilton, as I said a couple of days ago, it’s a risk, but if you want to get something of value, you have to be willing to give up something of value. The only thing is, to get the type of pitching the Reds need, Hamilton will have to be packaged with someone else.

The exciting thing is that this is the first I’ve heard of the Reds believing that Jay Bruce might be up before the All Star break. As someone that has seen Jay play probably 25 times in his career, I’m very excited about him being with the big club. He has a very real chance to be a very special player.

Our buddy Doug over at the Reds Minor Leagues blog has a few posts worth checking out. First, look at Baseball America’s list of the top ten prospects in the Reds system, just released today. Then check out Doug’s interview with JJ Cooper of BA about the Reds system.

No real surprises on the BA list, and just looking over it makes me optimistic for the future of this franchise.

Finally, check out Doug’s look at the prospect status of Reds farmhand BJ Szymanski, a player who we’ve always felt was a marginal prospect, at best. Doug suggests that BJ switch to hitting right-handed full-time, and it’s an interesting idea.

Numerous articles in the Enquirer today on Joe’s memorial last night at Fairfield High School.

Saying goodbye to Joe

Marty chokes back tears

Players pay respects to Nuxhall

What people said of Nuxhall

Friends agree: Joe got his 79 years’ worth and then some’

Nuxhall memorial program (.pdf)

Among those that attended were Anthony Munoz, Johnny Bench, Buddy Bell, Ron Oester, Pete Rose, Pete Rose Jr, Ken Griffey, Ken Griffey Jr, Sean Casey, and Barry Larkin. One of the morning radio guys said that at 11:00 last night there were still people coming through the gym. A great tribute to Joe…

For those of us that are quick to bash Junior…he was the only current Red to attend.

UPDATE (by Chad):

Bill beat me to the punch in posting the superb collection of articles in the Enquirer. Here are a few from the DDN (and one from MLB.com) that are worth looking at:

–Nuxhall man of the people until the end.
–Lines, love run deep at visitation.
–Nuxhall’s style was perfect for the sport.
–Thousands gather to honor Nuxhall.

Being a Reds fan will never be the same without the Ol’ Lefthander around.

Okay, I just wanted to use the word “shenanigans.”

The Reds did some roster shuffling today:

The Reds today added to the 40-man roster RHP Richie Gardner, IF Paul Janish, LHP Tyler Pelland, RHP Ramon Ramirez, C Craig Tatum and RHP Daryl Thompson.

Nothing earth-shattering there, but I thought I’d send it your way.

For what it’s worth, we just finished moving to a new house (well, we’re almost finished; gotta close on the old house first), and I finally have DSL hooked up at the new place. I’ll be around more now. Sorry to have to report that to you.

About Foxsports.com:

The biggest question for the Reds is whether to trade a young position player such as first baseman/outfielder Joey Votto for pitching when the contracts of outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn expire after this season. The Reds almost certainly will not move their top position prospect, outfielder Jay Bruce, but they could be open-minded on Josh Hamilton. Some executives believe that Hamilton’s past substance abuse left his body more susceptible to injury and illness…

Of the Reds position players that they can trade (Griffey and Dunn are basically untradeable b/c of their time of service and contracts), the one I’d most be willing to give up would be Hamilton. With Johnny Narron not being brought back, Josh will be “on his own” this year, which is a concern despite his remarkable comeback last year. Also his injury history is a big red flag.

Trading him might turn out to be a huge mistake, but if the Reds believe they can contend this season, they’re going to have to make some trades and some will be gambles.

The Phillies’ signing of left-hander J.C. Romero to a three-year, $12 million contract was only the beginning. One general manager seeking bullpen help says those terms likely will be the minimum for a number of free-agent relievers.

Closer Francisco Cordero already has received a four-year offer from an unidentified team, the G.M. says, and set-up types such as right-handers Scott Linebrink, LaTroy Hawkins and David Riske as well as lefties Ron Mahay and Jeremy Affeldt figure to strike it rich.

Kevin Towers has shown that you can assemble a good bullpen without breaking the bank, if you’re smart. The problem is that Wayne Krivsky and his staff have shown no ability to identify pitching talent. His next successful bullpen signing will be his first with the Reds.

From the Chattanooga Times Free Press:

Mike Goff, who spent the past two summers coaching with the Seattle Mariners, is the new manager of the Chattanooga Lookouts.

That means he will be adjusting from plane trips across the country to bus rides throughout the Deep South.

“The way the airports are now, bus trips won’t bother me a bit,” Goff said.

Former Seattle and Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chris Bosio is Chattanooga’s new pitching coach, while Jamie Dismuke will be returning for his fifth consecutive year as Lookouts hitting coach. Dismuke coached the past four seasons under Jayhawk Owens, who was let go by the Cincinnati Reds in September, and was a coach with the Lookouts under Phillip Wellman in 1999, the final year they played in Engel Stadium.

snip…

Goff served as Seattle’s first-base coach in 2005 and the first three months of this past season, but he moved to bench coach in early July when John McLaren took over as manager. After leading the Mariners to a 43-41 record to close out the year, McLaren and Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi announced Oct. 5 that Goff and three other Mariners coaches would not be retained.

“His name was recommended to me when we were in the search process,” (Terry) Reynolds (Reds director of player development) said. “I talked to a number of people who knew him and knew him well, and he was very well-regarded by everybody we used for research. The next step was interviewing him here in Ohio, and he aced that.

“He is knowledgeable and passionate, and he is very excited about this opportunity.”

The 45-year-old Goff, who lives in the Phoenix area with his wife and three children, grew up in Mobile and was a two-time All-Sun Belt selection at UAB in 1983-84. He was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 21st round of the ‘84 draft and played in their farm system until 1988, when a back injury ended his playing career.

Goff got a taste of the Southern League in 1992 as Jacksonville’s hitting coach and in 1996 managed Wisconsin to the Class A Midwest League title series. After that, he served nine seasons as Seattle’s coordinator of instruction for its farm system before spending the past two years coaching in the majors.

“My true love has always been managing,” Goff said. “When I took over coordinating with the Mariners, I didn’t expect to do it for that long, but I had good bosses, enjoyed it and had the opportunity to go to the big leagues.”

Lookouts owner Frank Burke doesn’t know anything about Goff except that he comes highly recommended and with a wealth of baseball experience.

“I don’t know if he knows what he’s getting into as far as dealing with me, but I’m looking forward to meeting him,” Burke said. “We’ve had great experiences with our managers.”

The 44-year-old Bosio was a second-round pick of the Brewers in 1982 and compiled a 94-93 record in 11 seasons in the majors. In 1993, his first season with the Mariners, Bosio threw a no-hitter against Boston.

Bosio has been out of baseball since 2002, when he was pitching coach for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays under Lou Piniella.

These seem to be “outside” hires. They were apparently hired for their skills, not because they were in the Twins organization when Krivsky was there. I take this as a positive sign.

From the Dayton Dragons press release:

Dayton, OH – After a three year absence, Donnie Scott’s return to the Dayton Dragons dugout in 2007, as manager was a successful one as he led the Dragons to a 78-62 overall record. Under Scott, the Dragons won the first half Midwest League Eastern Division title and earned a birth in the MWL Playoffs for the first time since 2002. The Cincinnati Reds have announced that Scott will return to lead the charges as Dragons Manager in 2008 and for the first time in team history all three field staff positions remain in tact with the return of Pitching Coach Doug Bair, Hitting Coach Darren Bragg and Athletic Trainer Jimmy Mattocks.

snip…

The 2008 season will be the former Major League catcher’s 19th season with the Cincinnati Reds as a player, manager or coach. He is the winningest manager in Dragons franchise history with a 294-264 regular season record. In four seasons as Dragons manager, Scott has led Dayton to the post season on three different occasions (2001, 2002 and 2007) and has an overall managerial record with the Reds in 10 minor league seasons of 600-430. Scott spent five seasons with the Billings Mustangs, winning Pioneer League Championships in 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1997. Before returning to the Dragons in 2007, Donnie managed the Sarasota Reds of the Florida State League in 2006.

The 2008 campaign will mark the third season as a Reds pitching coach for Bair, his second with the Dragons. The Dragons team ERA of 3.41 in 2007 was the lowest in franchise history and was good for fifth best in the 14-team MWL. Originally from Defiance, Ohio, Bair pitched collegiately at Bowling Green State University and was a second round draft choice of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1971. He made his Major League debut with the Pirates in 1976 and would pitch in the big leagues for 15 seasons, including three full seasons and parts of a fourth with the Cincinnati Reds (1978-1981). Bair has two World Series Rings from his playing days: one each with the St. Louis Cardinals (1982) and the Detroit Tigers (1984). The well traveled right hander appeared in 584 Major League games (579 in relief) with seven different major league clubs (Pittsburgh, Oakland, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit, Philadelphia and Toronto) and compiled a 55-43 record with a 3.63 ERA. He saved 81 games, including a career high 28 with the ’78 Reds.

Bragg is back for his second season as the Dragons Hitting Coach in 2008 and his second as a Reds Minor League Hitting instructor. Under Bragg’s tutelage, the Dragons hit .263 as a team in 2007, good for third best in the MWL and the club’s 106 homers ranked second. A 22nd round selection of the Seattle Mariners in the 1991 Free Agent Draft, he made his Major League debut in 1994 with the Mariners. Bragg appeared in the post season on three occasions, with the Red Sox in 1998 and the Atlanta Braves in 2002 and 2003. In 916 games spanning 11 Major League seasons with 10 different teams (Seattle, Boston, St. Louis, Colorado, NY Yankees, NY Mets, Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego); Bragg hit .255 with 46 home runs and 269 runs batted in.

Donnie Scott is very popular in Dayton and this will be a popular move with Dragons fans.

Baseball America has posted the list of this years crop of Minor League Free Agents. The list of free agents from the Reds organization is below. I’d like to see them re-sign Asadoorian, Ramirez, and Perez.

Cincinnati Reds (14)
Righthanders: Rick Asadoorian, Carlos Bohorquez, Dan Denham, Steven Kelly, Elizardo Ramirez, Dushan Ruzic
Catchers: Jean Boscan, Miguel Perez
First baseman: Jesse Gutierrez
Shortstops: Jeff Bannon, Caonabo Cosme, Aaron Herr, Anderson Machado
Outfielder: Marland Williams

Looking over the list, I was noticing a lot of names of players from other organizations who passed through the Reds system at one time or another. Just for fun, here is a 25 man roster of former Reds organization players who appear on the minor league free agent list.

Former Cincinnati Reds

C Corky Miller
1B Randy Ruiz
2B William Bergolla
SS Gookie Dawkins
3B Antonio Perez
LF Chad Mottola
CF David Espinosa
RF Kenny Kelly

C Dane Sardinha
IF Frank Menechino
IF Gary Patchett
OF Jackson Melian
OF Noah Hall

SP Jimmy Serrano
SP Bubba Nelson
SP Shawn Estes
SP Josh Hall
SP Brandon Claussen

RP Rheal Cormier
RP Todd Williams
RP Ben Kozlowski
RP Scott Dunn
RP Brian Shackelford
RP Hector Carrasco
RP Chris Michalak

Some interesting names there. Think the Reds will bring any of these guys back?