Loading ...Doug has finished his countdown of the Top Forty prospects in the Reds season; here are the top ten. I doubt anyone would argue with the names in Doug’s top four, or the order in which he has placed them.
I do have a fairly big disagreement with his #5 selection; I doubt Drew Stubbs would make my top ten at this point, despite a couple of strong months at the end of this season (though he’d probably be in my top fifteen). I can’t really quibble with the rest of his selections, though I’d probably move Juan Francisco up a few spots, and maybe Matt Maloney, too.
Overall, however, very good work by Doug.
I like me some Drew Stubbs. Given his injury this season, and his second half (.880 OPS) I am not overly worried about his offense. His defense and athleticism though are on par with anyone in the system.
I figured the two placings that I would get the most criticism with were Stubbs at #5, and Maloney at #19. I was pretty on target with those as far as the feedback I got.
I just can’t get thrilled (especially first round thrilled) about a guy who seems to project to be Eddie Milner. I obviously hope Doug’s right, and he knows a lot more about this stuff than I do.
I hope he’s right also, but Stubbs just didn’t impress me this year (offensively) and I saw him play over 15 times.
His bat looks slow to me. I just don’t think he’ll be an impact player offensively…defensively, he’s very, very good. Makes all the plays in CF and makes them look easy.
Bill, its interesting you bring up Stubbs bat being slow.
I have seen two big differing reports from scouts on him. One came from earlier in the year that had him tabbed with a slow bat. Then in August I got a report from a scout that he was showing plus bat speed….
Not sure what to take from the big difference in the scouting reports other than maybe something was going on with Drew earlier on in the season, be it injury, or a swing mechanics problem or what, but something changed later in the season.
I guess we’ll see next year, as I’m sure he’ll be moved up to Sarasota. At this point, in 2 seasons, he’s has 1/2 of a good offensive season.
I’d bet the Reds are disappointed in his offensive progress at this point.
Let’s keep in mind that Stubbs came out of COLLEGE. He’s not straight out of high school. This makes him old for low-A ball, and really puts a damper on his prospect status.
I hope I’m wrong, but when a 23-year-old puts up a .785 OPS in low-A ball, that is no prospect in my book.
And I’ll sadly remind… he was taken ahead of Tim Lincecum.
I’ve heard Mike Cameron mentioned as a Drew Stubbs comparable (which I think would be GREAT by the way)…
Here are their stats at comparable ages:
Cameron (age 22) – .249/.349/.429 (AA ball)
Stubbs (age 22) – .270/.364/.421 (low-A ball)
Cameron (age 23) – .300/.392/.600 (AA ball)
Stubbs (age 23) – ???
As you can see, Cameron had a MAJOR breakout season at age 23, in AA ball, and to be honest his hitting stats aren’t much to look at before that year.
Here’s hoping Stubbs can do the same in 2008!
Dan,
The thing is, even when Stubbs was drafted, he was known to be a great athlete with raw hitting skills that needed to be refined.
Yes he came out of college, but this isn’t a sprint to get to the majors, its all about how you perform once you get there. Right now Lincecum looks great, but God forbid his arm blows up and he is never close to the same guy. For all we know, Billy Rowell is a future triple crown winner. Its way too early to determine who should and shouldn’t have been taken at this point.
Lets toss out the fact that Stubbs has still yet to play healthy for the Reds and note the strides he made. Fact is, Drew Stubbs, putting up an OPS of .780 in the major leagues would make him a very valuable player. The major league aveage OPS of a CF falls between .740 and .750 almost every year and when you get a guy that can do better than that and play above average defense, well, guys like that are extremely valuable to a team.
People always bring up Lincecum when they talk about Stubbs…. Drew Stubbs isn’t even the worst prospect to be taken in the top 10 at this point.
Good points, Doug. If Drew can put up something like .270/.364/.421 in the majors and be a stud defender in CF, I’ll love it. I hope it happens.
My point when I mention college is his age. Batting .270/.364/.421 in A ball at age 22 is quite a bit different from batting .270/.364/.421 in A ball at age 19. Big difference in trying to project what his future looks like, I mean.
I know what you are trying to say, but lets not forget that when Drew began making adjustments, he was VERY successful.
Doug, who would you say is the worst prospect of the top 10 from that draft?
Well, at this point at least, Brad Lincoln has pitched about 25 innings and has already had a major arm surgery and didn’t throw a pitch in 2007. Luke Hochevar has been to the big leagues, but has not had an ERA under 4.69 anywhere that he has been yet in the minors. He had some success in 12 major league innings out of the bullpen, albeit with 4 walks and 5 strikeouts. He was the #1 overall pick. Billy Rowell was taken the pick right after Stubbs and he was ranked 10 spots behind Stubbs on BA’s MWL Top 20 prospects.
Greg Reynolds has me worried at this point though. He dominated for 50 innings in AA this year, but was shut down in June with shoulder soreness and has not thrown since then. No surgery or anything, which is good for him, but that worries me still. But yeah, at this point Stubbs is ahead of Rowell and Lincoln for sure.
I agree with doug, who beat me to it. Of the top 10 from the 2006 draft, it looks like #4 pick Brad Lincoln (Pirates) has the biggest obstacles to overcome. He threw 16 hard-hit innings in A-ball in 2006, then this past April had surgery to repair ligament damage. He’ll be back in spring 2008.
#1 Luke Hochevar (Royals), #5 Brandon Morrow (Mariners), and #6 Andrew Miller (Tigers), all college pitchers, have not looked like they’re world-beaters for various reasons (low K’s, high walks, and just plain hittable, respectively). But they have made the majors and they’ve got time, so despite maybe getting rushed they definitely get the benefit of any doubt.
Farther down, Matt Antonelli (#17), Ian Kennedy (#21), Joba Chamberlain (#41), and Chris Perez (#42) all look mighty good.
I’m no scout, of course, but I think Andrew Miller is going to be really good. I think he actually would be a great fit at GABP b/c of his groundball and strikeout tendencies.
It’s a pipe dream, since he’s such a good prospect, but I’d love to see him as a Redleg.
Dan,
Its interesting that Miller was incredible with his groundball rate in the minor leagues, but this year in Detroit in 64 innings, his GB/FB rate was exactly 1-1. 50% of each. Its very strange to see someone do that who was so dominant one way for 90+ innings in the minors.
Where are you getting your stats, Doug?
I’m looking at milb.com (which does show major league stats too) and thebaseballcube.com, and they say:
milb.com – GO/AO ratio = 1.48 in MLB (with a ratio of 4.32 in the minors — wow!)
baseballcube – 61% GB percentage in MLB.
Not Brandon-Webb-like, but it still favors grounders.
Dan, the Milb.com stats are for ground outs and air outs. They do not include balls that went as hits. Going from what firstinning.com uses based off of the game logs on mlb.com and milb.com he got a 50% rate for each in the major leagues…. he just happened to get more ground ball outs, thats all.
http://firstinning.com/players/Andrew-Miller-b
If you want to go check it out yourself, there is good information on a lot of guys there. It has been having some problems lately with 2007 stats going down, but I haven’t noticed it the past two days after a weeks worth of problems.
Oh, interesting, OK. Thanks.
Do you know what the league average is?
I am at work right now Dan…. but I know I have seen it before, when I get a minute later on today I will find it for you.