Comments on: Pick up the option on Adam Dunn, Mr. Krivsky

By: jinaz

jinaz — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 17:44:19 +0000

A strike out is never productive.

It’s more productive than grounding into a double play, which is one of the reasons that strikeouts don’t seem to affect offensive contributions all that much based on the studies I’ve read (and done). Yes, strikeouts are a poor outcome with a lone runner on second or third. But the difference between a team with a lot of strikeouts and one with a slightly below average number of strikeouts probably isn’t more than a win per season, all other things being equal (I can produce some calculations on that front if you like). And that’s before you take double plays into account.
-j

By: preach

preach — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 04:57:40 +0000

One other factor in favor of picking up the option: He plays 150 games a year. With Jr and Hobbs out there, you need that in your outfield somewhere. 40 HR, 100 RBI, + 150 games = picking up the option.

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 02:44:47 +0000

You have to pick up the option! If you think the money you save will buy you a pitcher in this years weak free agent market, think again son. You already have Milton’s $$ back, and as I see it, there isn’t much in the market this year. Your going to spend big bucks to get a chance at a 3 or 4 starter. I you think the Reds will win the “Best” pitcher derby out there this year, your very mistaken.

By: Justin

Justin — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 00:34:47 +0000

Dunn is good producer who needs to make his outs not all strikeouts:P

By: Matt Stiers

Matt Stiers — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 00:18:30 +0000

Please keep in mind that there is such a thing as a productive out. Dunn does not have many of those. A strike out is never productive. He has like 20 sac flys in his career. Just a thought.

By: mike

mike — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 23:07:33 +0000

I really like the line about his strikeouts.

Every player who plays every day is going to make a TON of outs. 100s and 100s of outs. Even Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Bonds make 100s of outs a year.

Reds Outs leaders
429 Phillips
364 Dunn
359 Jr
313 EE
286 Gonzalez
253 Hatteberg

to help put those #s in perspective there are 18 players in the majors who have more than 400 outs. Rollins leads with 443

By: Mark T

Mark T — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 23:05:44 +0000

It’s probalby a one year deal – I would like to see them lock him up long term, which may hint at why Castellini wanted to buy him lunch.

By: JinAZ

JinAZ — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 22:56:28 +0000

One of my favorite exchanges on the radio of the year happened between Joe Nuxhall and Jeff Brantley in yesterday’s game. Some Nuxhall quotes, as I remember them:

“People talk about letting Adam Dunn leave…that’s asinine.”

“People talk about his strikeouts…but you’re gonna make an out somehow.”

“He may not be great, but he’s not terrible either.”

I don’t think Dunn is great either. His defense can really eat into his overall value (last year it may have negated his off-year offense!), and his strikeout rate does put a cap on his overall production. He’s also a prototype of the sort of player who may not age well, with most of his production coming from “old player skills” like walk rate and power. But there’s no question that the past four years have been the among the most productive set of four years by a Reds hitter…well, at least since the big red machine days. There’s absolutely no reason that I can see to not exercise the option–it’s $13 million, but that’s “only” three million over his ‘07 salary, so this doesn’t represent much of a change in payroll. Having LaRue finally off the books pretty much makes up for it. -j

By: mike

mike — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 21:55:01 +0000

Ugh! You are right about ARod and HR through age 27. I accidentally had the settings wrong for the search. So what that list is is first seven seasons AND through age 27.

Though age 27 is this
345 Alex Rodriguez
302 Jimmie Foxx
299 Eddie Mathews
294 Ken Griffey Jr
280 Albert Pujols
280 Mickey Mantle
275 Mel Ott
262 Frank Robinson
256 Juan Gonzalez
253 Hank Aaron
250 Andruw Jones
240 Johnny Bench
236 Adam Dunn
235 Jose Canseco
234 Vladimir Guerrero

sorry about that

By: DevilsAdvocate

DevilsAdvocate — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 21:33:48 +0000

One quibble with the “HR through age 27″ list – shouldn’t Alex Rodriguez be on there? I think he had 320-350 at age-27.

By: mike

mike — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 21:03:34 +0000

By: Daedalus

Daedalus — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 20:46:55 +0000

Oh good, DA, you posted that so I didn’t have to look it up. There certainly are a lot of Griffey mindreaders around these parts. They know for a fact Griffey wouldn’t accept a trade to a contender! Amazing talents!

By: DevilsAdvocate

DevilsAdvocate — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 20:30:42 +0000

When the Reds visited Seattle at the end of June this year, C. Trent Rosecrans took the occasion to write an article in the Post about Griffey & Seattle & retirement (emphasis mine):

SEATTLE - All weekend long, Seattle fans have asked Ken Griffey Jr. if he would ever consider returning to Seattle. Griffey, who is under contract with the Reds for the rest of this season and next season, gave hope to baseball fans in the Pacific Northwest that he might finish his career with an "S" on his cap. "As an athlete you always want to retire with the team you started with," Griffey said following Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Mariners. "You look at Emmitt Smith and everybody else that moves on, they want to come back and retire with the same organization they started with. I'm no different than anybody else. But I've got a few more years, so don't think it's anytime soon." Griffey said the timetable for his retirement hinges on several factors, including his health. Griffey has been the subject of trade rumors recently, and the Mariner fans have let it be known that they'd love to see him return to Seattle. "That's a lot of decisions that have to do with the front office - all I can do is keep playing," Griffey said. "If it happens, it happens. I've just got to try to win as many games with the team I'm with now."

By: DevilsAdvocate

DevilsAdvocate — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 20:25:02 +0000

Yes, Andy – that’s the thing. As excited as everyone is about Bruce’s numbers in the minors this year, Dunn’s numbers in the majors are actually slightly better.

By the way, Bruce’s K totals have me thinking that he will struggle a little initially in the majors. I’d love to see him start next year in AAA and improve his BB/K ratio; that will help him when he’s called up.

By: seanjp

seanjp — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 20:19:33 +0000

Then you flunked remedial reading.