Well, the disastrous 2007 season sputters to a close this afternoon, and I think it is safe to say that we all hoped the season would have gone much better for our beloved Redlegs. Instead, it’s a seventh straight losing season; more of the same.

There are reasons, however, to be cautiously optimistic about the Reds. One of those reasons is today’s starting pitcher: Homer Bailey. Bailey should be entrenched in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future, and it will be fun to watch him improve with every outing next year.

If GM Wayne Krivsky can just make a few good moves this off-season (starting with bringing back Adam Dunn, and ending with getting some real pitchers — not Cormier/Stanton types — for the bullpen), I see no reason that the Reds can’t be serious contenders in the National League Central division in 2008.

Discuss the end of this season — and what 2008 holds in store — right here.

Adam Dunn tells CTR that he wants to stay in Cincinnati:

Adam Dunn hopes he’ll be a Red again next season.

The team has an option on his contract for 2008, but Dunn isn’t worrying about what the team will do yet.

“It’s like being traded, there’s nothing I can do about it,” Dunn said before Friday’s game, two days after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. “I’ve got other things to worry about, like crawling out of bed.”

Dunn is supposed to be fully recovered in four to six weeks, and by that time he hopes his future is more certain. He also hopes he will stay with the Reds.

“People might not want me here, but I definitely want to be here,” Dunn said.

Redleg Nation wants you here, Dunner. We want you to wear a Reds uniform for many, many years. And we can’t imagine a single reason why GM Wayne Krivsky wouldn’t have already exercised this contract option. It makes no sense. Bringing Dunn back is such a no-brainer, why hasn’t Krivsky pulled the trigger?

Meanwhile, Hal McCoy calls Dunn one tough Texan, and says that Dunn has played hurt for the last three seasons.

Finally, I enjoyed this from CTR’s article:

Despite his knee feeling worse in the second half of the season, Dunn felt better at the plate.

He hit .273 in the second half after hitting .258 in the first half. His on-base percentage was .425 in the second half, compared to .356 in the first. Dunn’s homers went down in the second half (24 to 16), but so did his strikeouts - dramatically. Dunn struck out 105 times in the first half of the season and only 60 in the second half.

“Something clicked in the second half. The whole second half I was seeing the ball good,” Dunn said. “I don’t know what happened, but hopefully that’s something I can build on.”

Dunn also saw his record for strikeouts in a season - 195 set in 2004 - wiped from the books by Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, who struck out for the 196th time on Thursday.

“I don’t think I’m going to be up there again. I’d tell you if I thought I would,” Dunn said. “It’s weird, I just felt a lot different in the second half.”

The second half also solidified Dunn’s desire to remain with the Reds. He enjoyed the second-half of the season as the Reds played better than .500-baseball since Pete Mackanin took over as interim manager in July.

“You saw what we did in the second half, we’ve got some young guys that came in and lit a spark,” Dunn said. “It was fun the second half. It shows what direction we’re going.”

Dunn just hopes he’s invited along for the ride.

He had better be invited along, or Krivsky is gonna have some ’splaining to do.

This has little to do with the Reds, but it’s yet another example of why Joe Posnanski is the best baseball writer in the world.  And it did make me think about some of the moves the Reds have made over the past few years, Jerry Narron especially:

People often ask why Buddy Bell has lost so many games through the years as a manager. His record, 518-723, is one of the worst in baseball history. Why? It’s a reasonable question. Bell is a good baseball man. He relates well to his players. He knows the game and loves the game, players play hard for him, he is loyal and committed. Why all the losing?

There are those obvious reasons. The biggest is that Bell has inherited bad teams. No manager was going to win big with the 1996 Tigers or 2006 Royals. Beyond that, well, you could question his game management, his handling of pitchers, his karma. Or you could just blame the whole thing on Jason LaRue, who is now hitting .148 — this makes him either a super welterweight or a junior middleweight depending on your boxing organization of choice.

Well, my theory about Buddy’s losing actually involves LaRue. It also involves Chiefs president Carl Peterson. It really covers just about everything we’ve seen in Kansas City sports the last decade or more. It has something to do with the way losing affects people.

Buddy Bell, of course, cannot stand losing. That’s obvious. More, though, Bell cannot stand stupidity. The wide variety of stupid plays in baseball (someone kicks the ball in the field, overthrows a cutoff man, fails to get the bunt down, walks a weak batter when the Royals lead, etc.) gives Bell ulcers. He can’t eat. He sits in his office staring at walls.

My theory is that Bell despises stupidity so much he has come to believe that the way to win games is to eliminate stupid plays. This is a bit like believing that the way to create art is to color inside the lines.

Here’s the problem with that line of thinking: It isn’t true.

Poz goes on to discuss how Bell (and Peterson) has stuck with “smart” players over talented ones — guys who avoid mistakes rather than guys who make plays, and the effect that sort of thinking has had on KC’s teams.

And so on. It’s strange, the more the Royals have lost, the more desperately Bell has gone into a shell and turned to those limited know-how-to-play-the-game guys. This might help explain why Bell’s teams have had so many long losing streaks.

Bell, as mentioned in this space before, has done a lot of good in Kansas City. He never had a real chance. He took over a mess, and he did make things better. The Royals will get better over the next couple of years, and I think Bell will have played a role in that.

In the end, though, I think Bell — like Peterson — did not try to win. They both have tried not to lose. And it’s not the same thing.

Aaron Harang toes the rubber today for the final time in his brilliant 2007 season. Today, he’ll face the National League Central “champion” Chicago Cubs. Here’s hoping today’s the first of many losses the Cubs will suffer over the next week or so.

Discuss it here.

We’ve already read John Fay’s prediction that Pete Mackanin will be the Reds manager in 2008, and now I see that some Reds players are saying the job should be handed to him:

It wasn’t an overwhelming majority, but a poll of some veteran Reds players indicated there was support to have interim manager Pete Mackanin back next season with the permanent job.

From a group of 14 players surveyed on the team with three or more years big league experience, 11 responded and three declined to participate. Of those who responded, six said Mackanin should return, four said he shouldn’t return and one was undecided.

Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips was emphatic that Mackanin should get the job.

“I just feel like Pete knows what this team is capable of doing since he’s been here,” Phillips said. “I think Pete deserves to come back. I think he needs to come back, because he’s seen the stuff that goes on in this clubhouse and what can make this team win. If we bring a new guy in, I feel like he won’t know what we need or what really goes on in this clubhouse. That’s just my opinion.”

I’ve said this a dozen times, so I won’t waste much time re-hashing it. If the Reds conduct a serious, intense search in the off-season and Pete Mackanin turns out to be the absolute best candidate available, then sign him to a contract. But if there is a better candidate available, hire that person.

Don’t just keep Mackanin around because the Reds played a little better since he took over. That’s a silly way to make such a serious decision. If you will recall, the Reds have gotten themselves in trouble by removing the interim tag the last couple of times they hired a manager (see Narron, Jerry and Miley, Dave).

On the other hand, John Fay says that he has heard Dusty Baker’s name mentioned. Good grief, that would be a TERRIBLE decision. If GM Wayne Krivsky turns over the arms of Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto to Dusty Baker, there will be blood shed.

Here come the Cubs into town for the final series of the year. I was hoping that the Cubs would be playing spoiler to the Reds playoff ambitions, but it appears the roles are reversed here in the Division That No One Wanted To Win.

Bronson Arroyo is taking on Carlos Zambrano. Should be a good one. Discuss it here.

Redleg Nation extends our prayers and best wishes to Cincinnati legend Joe Nuxhall:

Joe Nuxhall hopes a little good can come out of the bad patch he’s about to go through.

Nuxhall, the Reds legend and broadcaster, will start chemotherapy on Monday for a third recurrence of lymphoma.

“I hope I can lick this,” he said. “With all the publicity it’s getting, maybe others who have it will be encouraged. Maybe people will feel they can beat it, too.”

Nuxhall worked Thursday’s Reds-Houston Astros game as scheduled. He worked all 10 games of the Reds’ previous homestand and also led the World’s Largest Chicken Dance at Oktoberfest last weekend.

He plans to honor a commitment for a book signing of his biography “Joe: Rounding Third & Heading for Home” Sunday from noon to 1 p.m. at the Reds Hall of Fame.

“I don’t want to sit around and feel sorry for myself,” he said.

Nuxhall said the lymphoma is in his side. The first growth was on his throat, and he then had one on his tonsils and on a leg. Nuxhall, 79, also has had prostate cancer and heart problems.

He remains upbeat. He was chatting about the National League playoff races in the Reds dugout Thursday before the game.

“The thing about it is I have no pain,” he said. “But it’s there. It’s time to get after it.”

I saw Nuxie this summer and had a brief chat with him. He didn’t look very well, but he was smiling and was extremely upbeat. Here’s hoping he gets everything cleared up so he can lead some more chicken dances.

Reds and Astronomicals again tonight, and Matt Belisle will be on the mound hoping to help the Redlegs avoid the sweep.

Just because I want to talk about something positive that has come out of this dreadful season, I’m going to link this article in which Josh Hamilton says that he is pleased with the season he’s had.

We’re pleased, too, Josh.

Discuss Josh Hamilton and tonight’s game here.

I’m tooling around on Prospectus this afternoon, and read Kevin Goldstein’s self-evaluation of his pre-season “sleeper” picks from every organization.  Here’s the Reds:

What I Said: Signed in 2003 as a 39^th-round draft-and-follow, right-handed reliever Calvin Medlock gets little attention but continues to get batters out at every level, putting up a 2.97 ERA this year at Double-A Chattanooga with 70 strikeouts in 63 2/3 innings. Despite being listed at 5′10″ and looking smaller than that, Medlock deals in the low 90s, touches 95-96 mph, and features a very good changeup.

What Happened: Medlock was an absolute workhorse out of the bullpen this year, throwing 111 innings in 73 appearances, and wound up striking out 109 and allowing only 87 hits on the season. He pitched well enough to be picked up by the Devil Rays in a minor midseason trade. He still projects as a solid big league middle reliever.

Is this who they traded for Jorge Cantu?  The guy without any position or real role on the Reds?  Yep.  I must’ve blocked that out.  The team with no bullpen traded Medlock and Shackleford for yet another slugging-but-flawed infield project and yet another OF prospect.  What do the Reds know about Medlock that made them think so little of him?

Assuming Adam Dunn’s contract option is exercised and he returns to bash forty or more homers again, the big questions next year are going to be surrounding the pitching staff (aren’t those the big questions every year?).

In today’s Post, there are a couple of pieces that relate to that general topic.

First, the Reds are really in pretty good shape at the top of the rotation. Aaron Harang is a stud, and one of the best pitchers in the league. Bronson Arroyo is a good option at the number two spot.

After that, it’s kinda wide open. I think it’s the official position of the staff here at Redleg Nation that Homer Bailey should be given one of the remaining spots in the rotation. Lonnie Wheeler has this piece on Bailey in the Post, and while most of Wheeler’s columns are unreadable, this one is alright, if only for the quotes from Homer. I really love this kid’s makeup; go check out those quotes.

Bailey will be inconsistent next year, as all young pitchers are, but the Reds need to stick him in the rotation and leave him there through the ups and downs. It’s the only way he’ll get the experience he needs.

Matt Belisle, of course, is another name that will be in the mix for next year, and I’d personally like to see him in the rotation again. He’s still relatively young, and he’ll be at an age when many pitchers take a step forward. Belisle has bad some great starts this year, but he’s had some bad ones, too. All in all, I don’t think he’s a bad option for the back of the rotation in 2008.

Belisle pitches tonight, and CTR has this article on him in today’s Post.

That leaves one position in the rotation. Bob Castellini needs to take that Eric Milton money and put it toward signing someone who can be the #3 guy in the rotation (or the #2 guy, if any of those are available). That will go a long way toward stabilizing the rotation, and will leave the bullpen as the sole cause for concern.

Of course, with the way GM Wayne Krivsky has bumbled around in putting together a bullpen over the last two years, that’s a BIG cause for concern, but we’ll remain hopeful. If we can.

Today, Doug is looking back on the first campaign for this year’s number one draft pick, catcher Devin Mesoraco.

Congratulations are in order for Brandon Phillips, the Reds 2B who completed a rare accomplishment last night by joining the 30/30 (HR/SB) club. Yes, it’s a manufactured “club,” but it’s still a pretty neat thing. And the fact that Phillips joins Eric Davis and Barry Larkin as the only other Reds to accomplish the feat makes it more impressive.

Phillips has had a good year; not great, but definitely a good one. For all the grief that GM Wayne Krivsky gets, let us not forget that he obtained Phillips for next to nothing and he deserves credit for that. Don’t be surprised if Krivsky works out a contract soon to ensure that BP is the Reds second basemen for the foreseeable future. That wouldn’t be a bad transaction, either.

It’s Tom Shearn night at Great American Ballpark, and though Shearn has performed admirably over the last month, I can’t help but feel like this is Shearn’s last major league start.

Make it a good one, Tommy! Let’s discuss it here.

Justin is wondering whether Jared Burton could be the next Mariano Rivera. Dare to dream, I say!

He’s also looking at the PITCHf/x data for several other Reds pitchers, and it’s fascinating stuff.

Adam Dunn is going to have minor surgery on his knee (I know, minor surgery is surgery being performed on someone else), and his season is over…and what a season it has been:

The Reds announced shortly before Tuesday’s game against Houston that left fielder Adam Dunn will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out his right knee.

The surgery is scheduled for Wednesday morning.

Dunn didn’t start two of the Reds’ last three games in San Francisco. He is hitting .264 with 40 home runs and a career-high 106 RBI this season.

He is the first player in Reds history to hit at least 40 home runs in four consecutive seasons and to produce more than one season of 100 RBI, 100 walks and 100 runs scored. This is the third season he’s reached triple figures in all three categories.

If Dunn has played his last game for the Reds, i.e., if GM Wayne Krivsky doesn’t pick up his contract option, I’m going to be thoroughly disgusted with this organization. He’s the best hitter and most productive player on this team.

I do have the feeling, however, that we’re worrying over nothing and that the Reds are going to pick up the option.