Loading ...Rightfully so, the Post and Enquirer are lauding the recent efforts of the Reds bullpen. I’ve said it before: despite all the many problems with this team, if the bullpen had been simply average this year, I really believe the Reds would be in the thick of the Central division race right now. Perhaps that’s damning with faint praise, since the division is so bad, but a pennant race would still have been fun.
Reds are playing .568 ball since narron was fired. so you take the narron and the bad pen factor away, we might have been running away with the division.
i hate thinking of what might have been, but at this point, what else is there really to think about?
Let’s not fool ourselves here. Stormy is bound to start acting his age–I’m thinking that’s gonna be next year. We still need to address the bullpen in a big way in the offseason. Certainly, Burton and Bray will be the backbone with the highest upside, but everyone else is so mediocre, it’s not much of a risk to roll the dice and bring in some fresh faces via trade, Rule 5, or waiver wire. What kills me are these midseason bullpen auditions. They render the games meaningless to the fans. Let’s get this straight in spring training for chrissakes.
Right on, D. I get nauseous thinking about the what could’ve been. Friggin’ Cardinals……..
Hey, I’m not giving up on this year!
I know it would take a miracle, but since miracles do happen now and then, why not this time?
I just hope that two or three weeks of decent playing does not diminish the fact that we need some renovation to occur, not just trimming the bushes. My biggest fear with a winning streak is that too many people will begin to believe that we are on the right track and major moves will not be made. Though, in truth, I’m not sure what those moves should be. There’s no one available as a FA that I would spend the money on to help the rotation; I think our bench is pretty solid; Our bullpen needs to be dismantled and a closer added. Not sure where to take it from there.
we need a few more good players in the pen.
instead of saarlos and his 8 era.
and stantons 5 era 2 million ddollar butt.
get a couple good talented players.
also we need a closer.
not stormy.
he is mostly bad weather
Stormy’s been great, as good as any of the non-elite closers in the game. But yes, there’s not much tread left on those tires, so the approach to fixing the bullpen has to be comprehensive, including the possibility of trading some core talent. Ideally, if someone would trade for Griffey (with us eating some of the contract), we could acquire some talent there or by spending the saved $$. Fortunately, there’s still plenty of season left to figure out who your key bullpen pieces are. We’ll know what we have w/ Majik, Couty, and Coffey. From there, you try and get a sense of what the rotation will be like. Outside of Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey, you need 3 more nearly league average starters to be playoff contenders in the Comedy Central.
I think the difference in the bullpen’s performance has been Burton. The same guy that Narron tried to hide the whole season! Instead of trying to get through the 8th inning with the likes of Saarlos, Cormier, Santos…et al, MacKanin put some faith in Burton and its really paid off. If we can point to one positive thing that MacKanin’s done that Narron didn’t its his use of Burton.
Still in all, the bullpen is thin with performers. Weathers won’t last forever. He’s out of position as a closer. Bray’s done pretty well now that he’s healthy. I’m not certain the Magic man will ever get back to his old form. There’s only 2-3 pitchers that can be depended on out there and they are by no means hall of famers. There needs to be a serious overhall to the pen or we’re in for it again next year.
I’m not sure I believe that an average bullpen would have saved this team.
The main reason being the starters have a 4.92 ERA. That, while not as bad compared to average I would guess has abigger impact because of the # of innings.
I wondered the difference between the Reds bullpen (235 runs allowed) vs the average bullpen pitching the same number of innings (would allow 190 runs). That is 45 runs.
Now I know this is just a rough estimate of the impact of an average bullpen but I was very surprised to see that the Reds would be .500 or at least very near.
Using Pythagorean W/L replacing the Reds bullpen with an average bullpen the Reds go from 56-70 to 63-63
That would put the Reds in 3rd place!!
wow, my assumption was wrong. The average bullpen makes this team a playoff team.
The go from having no chance of making the playoffs to having about a 21-22% chance of making the playoffs
mike
Wow, thanks Mike. As informative as it is, it’s no fun having your worst suspicions confirmed.
As bad as the bullpen has been this year I couldn’t believe a stat on TV last night. The Reds are 43-0 leading after the 8th. I will admit to not being a big fan of Stormy’s but that number speaks volumes in that if you get the game to him he’s been closing.
Now if we could only move that back to leading after the 7th and not worry about the dreadful 8th.
It seems the improvements in the team after Narrons firing go to two places:
1. The bullpen is finally getting roles and Burton and Bray have assumed the 7th and 8th inning.
2. The 1 & 2 guys in the order have been getting on base for Griffey, Phillips and Dunn. Granted I’m lazy and don’t feel like searching for numbers to back that up but it just seems like that lately. I know alot has been Keppinger’s hot streak but not having Freel out there running himself out of innings every game makes a difference as well
OK some silly numbers here.
I was very, very surprised that the difference between the average bullpen and the Reds bullpen is around 45 runs. That’s crazy.
So I starting thinking crazy thoughts. Like what if the Reds had the best closer in the game instead of one of their relievers that has caused the most damage?
For kicks I replaced Stanton with JJ Putz. I picked Stanton not only because he’s been awful but because he’s pitched a lot and has allowed the 2nd most runs of any reliever on the Reds.
Reds ER “leaders”
30 Coffey
29 Stanton
28 Santos
27 Saarloos
To put this into perspective Harang has only allowed 71!!!
The difference is shocking. Replace Stanton with JJ Putz makes a 22 run difference!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mike