Loading ...From today’s Enquirer:
Who’s the skipper? Pete Mackanin has done a terrific job as the interim guy. But I get no sense that he’s being considered for the permanent gig, which is unfair because he’s qualified and has gotten results.
History is working against Mackanin. The two previous interim managers who got the permanent gig failed. Ownership can’t afford the P.R. backlash of operating the way the previous ownership.
My early betting line: Bob Brenly, Tony LaRussa, Joe Girardi. If LaRussa wants the job, I think he’ll get it. If Brenly and Girardi both interview, I give the edge to Brenly.
I agree with Fay about Mackanin. He’s done a nice job. I’m not convinced he’s the reason the Reds have played better, but, other than the continuing usage of Mike Stanton, I think he’s done very well.
Radio guy Lance McAllister reported last week (or so) that Girardi was in town. Not necessarily meeting with the Reds, but looking the town over, talking to people, playing golf, etc. I agree that Castellini will hire LaRussa if he leaves St. Louis and wants the job. I’m not convinced that Brenly will have an advantage over Girardi though, except Brenly’s an Ohio guy. I don’t think Girardi is.
Will he stay or will he go? The Adam Dunn question is the biggest one by far to be answered in the offseason. I thought it was telling that CEO Bob Castellini wouldn’t touch the question about picking up Dunn’s option.
Fans are split right down the middle on Dunn. Taking the runs-produced stat – runs plus RBI minus home runs (that way you don’t get credit for driving yourself in) – Dunn was at 124. That represents Dunn having a hand in 21.5 percent of the Reds’ runs going into Saturday. It’s a major risk to let a guy like that walk.
Notice how Fay doesn’t talk about Dunn’s lack of RBI opportunities that was part of the Erardi’s article a few weeks ago? If the Reds believe that a combination of improvement from Phillips, Hamilton, continued health of Griffey, and Jay Bruce or Joey Votto in the OF can make up for that 20% of the offense, they’ll let Dunn walk. They might anyway…and concentrate on the draft picks.
Everyone gives Krivsky credit for the extension he signed Dunn to (I believe it was Krivsky, not O’Brien?). Anyway, the contract has made him much more difficult to trade to get any type of immediate help. I don’t see any way that Dunn passes through waivers in the next 2 weeks and after the season, his no-trade kicks in. The contract extension has made him less valuable to the Reds because it lowered their ability to trade him.
What I’d like is to see Junior traded and the Reds re-sign Dunn, but I don’t believe that will happen (Junior’s HR quest will help attendance and the continued media bashing of Dunn, IMO, have convinced the Reds front office that he’s less popular than he is and less valuable). I just don’t see how you let someone as productive as Dunn is walk, but it wouldn’t be the first time this team has done something that made no sense.
Is he for real? Jeff Keppinger, that is. He looks to be the real deal to me. Heck, he was hitting .357 going into Saturday and had 10 walks vs. five strikeouts. But he had only 98 at-bats as a Red. I think the Reds still see him as a super-utility guy. The problem is they’re paying Ryan Freel $3 million to be in that role next year.
Barring a trade, the only opening for real playing time I see for Keppinger is as the right-handed half of the first base platoon.
I find it amazing that the media are quick to jump on 98 ABs (‘07) and ignore 170 major league and 2100 minor league ABs. Keppinger is a good solid bench player/spot starter. Projected him as a starter is a recipe for disappointment.
The Reds recent history is full of guys that had good partial seasons, became part of “the plan” only to revert to form. Votto is the Reds 1B of the future.
Want to find a place for Keppinger? Trade Gonzalez. Boy, that Freel extension looks like good money spent, doesn’t it?
Who are Nos. 3, 4 and 5? Beyond Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, the Reds have nothing but question marks as far as starting pitchers.
Right now, Elizardo Ramirez, Bobby Livingston and Phil Dumatrait are in the rotation.
They’ll be in there as long as they pitch well. If they struggle, look for Matt Belisle or Homer Bailey to take their spots. Bailey has to get healthy first.
Johnny Cueto, the No. 2 pitching prospect behind Bailey, could get a look as well.
Every one of the aforementioned pitchers, except Cueto, has gotten a trial in the rotation already. None has been consistent enough to warrant a free pass into next year’s rotation. The Reds probably will address starting pitching via trade or free agency
Gee, John, young pitchers struggled with consistency in the big leagues? Wow, does it get hot in the summer too? None of these guys has been put in the rotation for any extended period, how are they supposed to find any consistency?
Belisle’s numbers show he has been somewhat unlucky and given up way too many homers, but it’s his first extended time in a major league rotation and the first time starting since Louisville in ‘04.
I’ve been impressed with Livingston, Ramirez has shown flashes at a very young age, and Cueto has succeeded everywhere he’s thrown and all are young.
When was the last time the Reds could say that about starting pitchers? I wouldn’t have a problem with the Reds signing/trading for 1 starter (maybe trade Hatteberg in a package for someone to fill that #3 spot?), but wouldn’t be unhappy to see the youngsters get a shot either.
Any closer? David Weathers is under contract for 2008. He’s been good in the closer role this year. The Reds might be content to let him start ‘08 as the guy and ease Jared Burton into the role.
The other question will be whether to pick up the $3.5 million option on Eddie Guardado. Guardado hasn’t pitched well in his limited time. He has to show he’s healthy and able to get people out over the last six weeks.
I like the idea of Burton moving into that role with Weathers to mentor him. McBeth’s been pretty impressive at Louisville also. Based on early returns, let Guardado go unless he shows a heck of a lot more than he has in his couple of appearances since coming back.
Who’s on first? Scott Hatteberg is a bargain at his option price of $1.85 million. My guess is the Reds pick up the option. As for what they do with Joey Votto if they pick up Hatteberg’s option, I have no idea.
Hatteberg is a heck of a player for $1.85M. He’s been tons better than I ever expected in his two years with the Reds.
He’s also valuable and could/should bring something in a trade. And you’ve got a much cheaper option playing at Louisville named Votto. I can’t understand why Hatteberg is still here.
With Votto’s continued outfield play at Louisville, it appears to me that they believe next year there will be a place for him in LF.
Who sets it up? The problem with the bullpen this season has been the seventh and eighth innings. The emergence of Burton has eased those concerns lately. If Bill Bray can be the pitcher the Reds hope he is, he will help stabilize things as well. I think Marcus McBeth figures in there somewhere.
Chris has posted a number of times here and on the Reds List that the Padres have shown that you can build a bullpen without spending a fortune, if you’re smart.
I think there are some guys on the Reds and in the system that can help this bullpen, Weathers, Burton, McBeth, Bray, Coutlangus, maybe Salmon, maybe Coffey. Guevara and Roenicke at AA should get a look, but there’s a lot of junk in this bullpen.
Stanton’s continued presence on this roster shows that some decisions are more about $$ then they are about results.
Do you play Jay? Jay Bruce is arguably the best hitting prospect in all of the minors. He’s had no problem adjusting to Triple-A pitching. If Dunn’s not back, Bruce will get a shot at the left-field job.
Maybe. Or Joey Votto will, if the Reds keep Hatteberg. I think Bruce starts next year at AAA as insurance in case Hamilton isn’t the real deal or Junior gets hurt.
What’s the payroll going to be? Castellini raised it about $9 million to $69 million from 2006 to ‘07. I don’t see that kind of bump next season.
Another sign that might point to Dunn’s departure and savings by playing Hatteberg and Votto or Bruce. 20% of your offense is a lot to make up.
Bob Brenly is exactly the type of no creativity, unwilling to adapt, old school small ball type of manager that will drive us as crazy as Narron. If he is hired, prepare for several more years of mediocre at best baseball. The fact that Brenly has a World Series to his credit but hasn’t really gotten a sniff at another team since should be all the proof the Reds need that he is not worth taking.
And for the one hundredth time, letting Dunn walk would be all the proof I need that Castellini talks a big game but does not understand the game well enough to be the guy signing off on all of the decisions.
Not playing Votto at all and not trading Hatteberg or Conine should be more than enough reason to fire Krivsky as also having no idea how someone builds for the future. Clearly, Krivsky was Ryan’s coffee boy and not really an assistant GM.
Listening on ESPN radio yesterday and they were saying how smart the D’Backs and Braves are in developing young players. They bring up and put them into the fire of a pennant race to see how they’ll react. I don’t know maybe we should see how some of these guys react first before saying things like Votto can replace Dunn. Does anyone in the organization realize that Dunn is 27 and still improving. All this has been said before but why are Hatteberg and Conine still here? Why is Stanton still pitching and not retired? Why is some of the young talent not up debuting for next year? I love Jr. but why hasn’t Jr been traded when his value is at an all time high as a Red? These are the questions that have been asked and should be asked by the local media.
Free Joey Votto! Free Jay Bruce! Free Johnny Cueto! Free Homer Bailey! Free Matt Belisle!
I would have brought all those guys up at the beginning of August (with the exception of Bailey, of course, but I would have him back in the bigs as soon as he comes off the DL).
Instead, this team is refusing to use this lost season as a springboard for the future, testing out some of these young guys and getting them experience under fire.
But hey, Jeff Conine is getting some ABs!
In the manager race its gotta be either girardi or mackanin. I like the idea of LaRussa, but his price tage could be better used elsewhere in this organization. I under no circumstances want Bob Brenly anywhere near this team. I have a black sheep in my family that watches many a cubs game and I just laugh at his analysis and insights about the game. Let him and Len stay together so they can talk music and miss half of the game b/c the camera is focused on the girl in the pink cubs hat sitting in row 5.
In regards to Dunn, let’s just say I would rather not have him around next year. I am hesitant to even mention his name around these parts b/c he is more polarizing than any player I can remember. Something fay did leave out in this is what to do with EdE Anyone who has watched this team closely can see that his defense is about the same as last year and his pitch selection is pretty terrible. I think if Krivsky can move him in a package deal somewhere he will. I don’t know if this is the right move, I would give him one more year to prove himself, but the reds baseball people are paid to evaluate upside and if they feel he is going nowhere he will be gone.
To make me even more unpopular around here, I am a big Keppinger fan. The guy just keeps hitting. I know he is not anyone’s dream player, but he hits in big spots and has walked more than I ever thought he would up here. To compare him to freel as a guy that has just gotten hot and gets rewarded is unfair. Freel has NEVER shown this kind of offensive ability. I think the reds would be in good shape to have hopper and keppinger as spot starters/utility players next year. Injuries/circumstances happen and if they can unload freel’s contract in favor of a javy/kepp/hopper bench, then do it.
The Hatte option is a no brainer to me. They need to get votto up asap so we can see if he is a viable option as a platoon 1b/lf guy next year or B. larson.
The Hatteberg option is a no-brainer as a “yes” or a “no”? He’s been fantastic, yes, but he’ll be 38 on Opening Day next year. He will decline very soon – quite a good chance we’re seeing his last good year in fact – and more importantly we have a great looking prospect (Votto) who will be 24 on Opening Day, will play for the minimum (about $1.5 million less than Hatteberg’s option), and has a chance to be better than Hatteberg ever was… and for a long time.
This exactly what low-budget teams need! Young, cheap, productive players.
The constant throwing away of a couple million here and a couple million there on people like Castro, Stanton, Cormier (remember him??), Conine, etc. is so freakin risk-averse it blows my mind. You don’t think there are 100 minor leaguers out there today who could do what those guys have done, or better, and for about $380K (or whatever the minimum is)?
We need to develop good young players from our system — we’re starting to do that now, which is nice — and then when it comes time we need to give them jobs and TRUST THEM w/ them rather than having a 38-year-old version of them waiting to take over whenever they have 2 straight bad games.
In the same vein… let Edwin play!! The guy is talented and has a chance to be very good. Let him play and stumble a bit and learn and get better. Do NOT trade the guy when he’s still 24 (he’s 24!!!) and his value is as low as it will ever be.
Oh yeah, and Keppinger… This guy deserves to play a lot, and if we could get back decent value in a deal for Gonzalez, I’d be perfectly happy to put Phillips and Keppinger on the field as my starting 2B and SS.
Keppinger (minors) – .320/.373/.419 (2154 AB)
Keppinger (majors) – .307/.361/.433 (277 AB)
I think Keppinger SEEMS like a utility backup infielder type b/c he’s a slow white guy w/ no power.
But this guy can hit the ball! Let’s give him the chance to be good.
At the very least, I’d want him to be our primary backup next year at 2B/SS/3B… our new Freel, actually… just younger, slower, cheaper, and a much better hitter!
One more thing about Keppinger — from baseball-reference.com, his range factors, range factors per 9 innings, and fielding percentages at ALL 5 POSITIONS HE HAS PLAYED in the majors are all better than league average.
OK, enough ranting for a Sunday afternoon… I’ll hang up and listen…
If LaRussa is the manager, I think I’ll vomit. You think Narron was frustrating?
It would be a fate worse than death, Chad, but do Krivsky or Castellini seem like the types who think outside of the box?
I agree with your point on Castro, Stanton, Cormier, Womack, etc. and wasting money on old guys. The problem with the Cormier and Stanton deals was that Krivsky added a second year. Conine has met or exceeded any expectation I had for him this season. Going into this season, this team was expected to finish hein the top half of the division and maybe make a run so having an extra vet who has a ring made some sense. If we get rid of dunn, which looks probable given what the team has said about his future, I think it would be nice to have an insurance policy at 1B for a year in case votto doesn’t play as well as he is projected to and could also give them options to play him in LF on some days. hatte at 1.85 for 1 year is not gonna kill this team and if you have any other cheap selections as to who could backup 1b I would like to hear it. Please no adam dunn at first talk though. He is worse there than he is in left and that is hard to believe.
I want to know where we are going to spend all the money we free up from Uncle Milton’s contract
One thing I have thought about the reds doing is being more like the sox/yankees/tigers and taking boras clients in the draft. The price of proven pitching is so astronomical that the reds will never be in a place to compete for guys like zito, bj ryan, etc. so we are left to settle for guys like milton and stanton. Occasionally a team will get lucky and find the right fit, but mostly they are league average or worse. Everyone around here is so focused on young players, why not start putting some money towards signing these high risk/ceiling guys.
I know Castellini said signing draft picks is something that is no longer a problem, but I want to see it year in and year out. The Yankees have completly revamped their system in about 3 years and everyone knows the story of matt bush/verlander and the padres refusal of boras clients. I know the reds don’t have the greatest reputation for producing home grown talent, but given the state of modern baseball economics, I think we need to look to new avenues to really compete.
Good point about the draft, Ben. That is not a bad idea at all.
Kerm – I think it’s safe to say that the Milton savings will be used up 100% and then some by normal raises for existing players. (For example, Harang alone has a $2.5 million raise coming.)
Oh, and as for a backup first baseman, Ben, I have no idea who the backup would be if we don’t have Hatteberg… but finding a backup 1B who’s good for maybe 200 decent AB’s has to be about the easiest thing to find in all of baseball. You pay more for things that are scarce, and backup 1B’s are not that.
Dropping off the Reds payroll this year:
Milton
Lohse
Cormier
Conine
Saarloos (I’m assuming he’s not offered arbitration…he makes $1.2 million this year)
Moeller
TOTAL: $19.1 million
Salary increases:
Harang
Dunn
Gonzalez
Stanton
Freel
Ross
Hatteberg
Arroyo, Valentin & Castro all have slight increases
TOTAL $9.65 million
If LaRussa’s available and Casty is willing to pay him, do it. The whole offseason (nay, the next 2 years) hinges on what you do with Griff and Dunn. I’d trade Griffey before I let Dunn walk for nothing. Dunn, Hobbs, and Bruce in the outfield w/ Freel and Hopper backing up. Use some of the Griff $$ to buy some relief help. Keep Hatty (gotta stockpile depth to compete), give EdE until June to prove himself. For the remainder of this season, plug Livingston, Bailey, and Belisle into the rotation, and make Cueto the long man to get his feet wet. Play Votto every day, let Hatty get used to the lefty PH/spot starter role. AND FIX THE BULLPEN!!!
Lance had some Chicago media guy on his show last week, talking about possible moves between the Reds & Cubs and he said with the deferred money that Griffey is owed, the Cubs wouldn’t touch him, because they’re trying to sell the team.
I wonder if that holds true for most teams?
I don’t think many, if any, other MLB teams are up for sale.
Also, I figured if the Reds trade him, they are still on the hook for salary that is deferred from prior seasons played. Surely salary deferred from the past doesn’t move with Griffey.
Deferred salary for future years should actually be viewed as a positive. It means you can say you have a $12million player, but it really costs less to pay him. You can fund the deferred portion for an annuity today in a value less than the total amount of payouts (because of interest earned on the deferred money.)
My opinion of Dunn has improved greatly over last year. Especially, after he fell off the map in September, I had the opinion that they couldn’t ship Dunn out of here fast enough.
However, he’s put together a pretty solid season this year. His strikeouts are still off the map, but he has a respectable BA and he leads the team in HR’s and RBI’s. I think he’s had marked improvement. I think his best years are still ahead of him.
I know he’s the worst OF on the squad and he costs a ton of money, but everyone got on him last year about not improving his game. Well, I’d say he’s responded with improvement. He’s got a ways to go but I have to applaud the effort.
Bill, was the guy on Lance’s show suggesting that the Reds were trying to move deferred salary owed to Griffey with him? Or was it an issue of how his remaining ‘07/’08 salary was structured?
The impression I got was that he was saying the deferred money moved also, but I can’t say that 100%. If not, why bring it up?
I don’t know, I can’t listen to Lance during the day. It seems so absurd that it had to be questioned (that the Reds would be asking the Cubs or any team to trade something of value for Griffey AND spring for the millions, if not tens of millions of dollars still owed him for his 2000-2005 playing seasons.)
Who was the guest?