Comments on: Tone down the Jay Bruce excitement?

By: Shane

Shane — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 08:01:45 +0000

Jay “The Boss” Bruce will win an MVP soem day.

By: doug

doug — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 22:27:03 +0000

Actually Bill I think it hit my house down here in Cincinnati sometime about 3 weeks ago.

By: Bill

Bill — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 11:22:38 +0000

Chris…true, I saw Wily Mo hit a homer to LCF in Dayton in ‘04 (?) that still hasn’t come down…

By: doug

doug — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 03:11:57 +0000

His Iso slugging was .160 in the minor leagues.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 02:22:11 +0000

What was WMP’s ISO in the minor leagues?

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 02:21:48 +0000

I know. But he hit the thing a frickin ton when he did hit it.

By: doug

doug — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 00:51:18 +0000

Chris,
Wily Mo never really hit well at any stage in the minor leagues though. Pena had a career minor league OPS of .725 with a .412 slugging percentage.

By: Shawn

Shawn — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 00:23:26 +0000

So far, he’s just better than the level. That’s a very, very good sign for a prospect.

By: Chris

Chris — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 23:07:44 +0000

Bill, I’d submit Wily Mo Pena as a guy who really rocketed the ball at low levels. I think he still hit the ball harder than anyone I’ve ever seen.

By: GregD

GregD — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 21:30:30 +0000

I think we should compare Bruce’s minor league hit rate to these other stars minor league hit rates, not their major league hit rates.

Pujols MILB career 35%, best 36% in low A. (he struck out less than 10% of the time)

ARod MILB career 41%, best 45% in AAA.

Manny MILB career 40%, best 42% in AA & AAA.

Jeter MILB career 36%, best 43% in AA & low A.

Griffey MILB career 40%, best 41% A-ball.

Dunn MILB career 40%, best 44% in AA & 43% in AAA (the year he shot to the majors.)

Guerrero MILB career 39%, best 41% in A-ball.

D.Ortiz MILB career 41%, best 46% in AA.

By: Sultan of Swaff

Sultan of Swaff — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 21:08:53 +0000

Assuming his performance doesn’t radically drop off, I truly wouldn’t be suprised to see him come up in September just to whet his appetite. Hell, he might even get some meaningful at bats if Dunn and Griff get shipped out. And no, I don’t see how this could hurt him

By: Eric

Eric — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 20:58:44 +0000

-Doug-

I just figured I’d point out that some of his numbers were a bit out of whack, that’s all. I’m not worrying about anything, except his BB:K ratio. And “worry” isn’t even the right word about that. I think he’s plenty smart enough to make that adjustment eventually.

By: doug

doug — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 20:49:03 +0000

Eric,
I surely dont think he will have a BABIP of .400 in the majors… but I think it could surely be .340 with ease for how many line drives he hits. Right now I would say its a little early to be worrying about his hit percentage in AA through 61 at bats.

By: Eric

Eric — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 20:33:22 +0000

Well, each hitter sets his own hit rate. It can be influence by how hard a batter hits the ball, how many line drives he hits, his foot speed and other things.

But to put Bruce’s hit rate into perspective, Pujols highest hit rate of the past 5 years is 35%. Ichiro hit 40% once (and batted .372 that year). ARod, 35%. Manny 36% and Jeter 39%.

I’ve seen Bruce in person a few times and know that he centers the bat on the ball extremely consistently and well. But he’s not going to sustain a 40% or above hit rate. That’s all I’m saying. I made every effort not to knock the guy.

As with every hitter, his plate discipline will dictate how great of a hitter he is going to be.

By: Cary

Cary — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 20:05:20 +0000

Even if he has a correction due to adjustments, it sounds to me like a born hitter who is one of the few bright spots of the DanO era. Go ahead and get excited, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up here at some point next season.