Loading ...Jay Bruce is having a great season After being rated as one of the top prospects in the minors following the 2006 season (BA #14, Sickels A-, BP #9), Bruce has stepped it up even more in 2007. He’s earned a promotion to AA and has continued to hit there.
However, is he really this good? In the end, that’s probably a question best answered by scouts and other people much smarter than I am. However, we can take a closer look at his numbers and when I do, I feel led to temper my expectations some. Here are Bruce’s numbers from 2006 and this year (through Sunday).
Year
Level
AB
H
2B
3B
HR
BB
K
Ave
OBP
SLG
ISO
BB/K
Hit Rate
K rate
EXB/H
2006 A 444 129 42 5 16 44 106 0.291 0.355 0.516 0.225 0.42 38% 24% 49% 2007 A+ 268 87 27 5 11 24 67 0.325 0.380 0.586 0.261 0.36 43% 25% 49% 2007 AA 61 20 7 1 4 8 18 0.328 0.406 0.672 0.344 0.44 47% 30% 60%
Bruce’s 2006 was really impressive. He was a 19 year old at A ball and hit for good power (ISO over .200 and almost half his hits went for extra bases). His walk rate was acceptable but his strikeout rate was high. However, even with the mediocre walk rate and high strikeout rate, this was a great season from an 19 year old in A ball. You’ll notice his hit rate was a little high at 38%, though. Hit rate is the percentage of the time he makes contact with a pitch and it lands for a hit.
This year at Hi-A ball, Bruce seemed to take another step up. He hit for a bit more power (almost half his hits are going for extra bases), he walked a little bit less and struck out at about the same rate. The main difference is his batting average and that’s driven by a 43% hit rate.
Now at AA, Bruce is hitting even better. His batting average is even higher and he’s hitting for a lot more power. But let’s look closer. That hit rate is now up to 48%. Almost half of all the balls he hits are landing safely. And now almost 60% of his hits are going for extra-bases. Both of those rates are unsustainable and he’s eventually going to come back down to earth.
“Down to earth” for Jay Bruce is undoubtedly still very, very good and I haven’t brought this up to say he’s not a top prospect. He obviously is. He has the pedigree(first round pick), the tools and the performance. You can take almost 10% off his numbers and it is still a great season for a 20 year old at A+ and AA. But he still has some work to do bringing his walk rates and strikeout rates closer together. I’ll bet that AA pitchers adjust to him and we’ll see him slow down some.
That said, I’m very excited to see him having the season he is.
**UPDATE***
Jay Bruce is listed at #1 on this week’s Baseball America Hot sheet. Johnny Cueto drops to #5. Carlos Fisher shows up on the “Not so hot” part of the list.
Eric – you think he’s going to make the big club next year?
-Matt B-
I wouldn’t be surprised if he was up at some point next year.
Unless we trade all of our corner outfielders before spring training and he tears the cover off the ball, I don’t see him making the team out of spring training.
That’s just my speculation, though.
Yeah, I hope the kid is good, but I’m not willing to wager the ranch on 61 AB’s at AA.
He’s improving at every level and the ball rockets off his bat like no one I’ve seen at these levels. I’m not claiming to be an expert, but I’ve probably seen him play about 25 times at 3 different levels and he looks like the real deal to me.
Eric,
One thing I have noted before about Jays BABIP is that the only reason it is so high is that he gets a lot more fly balls to fall for hits than most people. I believe that is in part due to how hard and far he hits the ball. Especially in the minor leagues guys with his type of power get higher than normal amounts of flyballs that fall for hits.
That said, there are two hitters in the minor leagues that are just on a different level than everyne else. Justin Upton and Jay Bruce. The bat speed they possess is just different than everyone else in the minor leagues that I have seen. Throw in the rest of their tools and they are just on a different level than everyone else.
I think AA pitchers have started to adjust to Jay Bruce already. He has walked in 6 straight games. I think we will start to see his walk rate go up as pitchers begin to understand just how good of a hitter he is and they start to pitch around him.
Hey Bill…. you summed up most of my post in a lot less. Way to be efficient with your words.
Just found this and thought I would throw it into the conversation, although it echo’s what I said, it hammers home that I am not much of a ‘homer’ on Bruce.
http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2007/07/fast-food-for-2.html
3. I’m no scout — I only play one for the Tribune and Baseball America — but the two best-looking players I saw were Cincinnati right fielder Jay Bruce and Upton, who is playing center field but has the ability to play shortstop or anywhere else except catcher. Bruce, who is tearing up Double-A, is a monster who might make Adam Dunn expendable. He raced to third base on a triple off the top of the wall in right-center — the deepest part of the park — and fired a bullet to the plate at one point.
Even if he has a correction due to adjustments, it sounds to me like a born hitter who is one of the few bright spots of the DanO era. Go ahead and get excited, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up here at some point next season.
Well, each hitter sets his own hit rate. It can be influence by how hard a batter hits the ball, how many line drives he hits, his foot speed and other things.
But to put Bruce’s hit rate into perspective, Pujols highest hit rate of the past 5 years is 35%. Ichiro hit 40% once (and batted .372 that year). ARod, 35%. Manny 36% and Jeter 39%.
I’ve seen Bruce in person a few times and know that he centers the bat on the ball extremely consistently and well. But he’s not going to sustain a 40% or above hit rate. That’s all I’m saying. I made every effort not to knock the guy.
As with every hitter, his plate discipline will dictate how great of a hitter he is going to be.
Eric,
I surely dont think he will have a BABIP of .400 in the majors… but I think it could surely be .340 with ease for how many line drives he hits. Right now I would say its a little early to be worrying about his hit percentage in AA through 61 at bats.
-Doug-
I just figured I’d point out that some of his numbers were a bit out of whack, that’s all. I’m not worrying about anything, except his BB:K ratio. And “worry” isn’t even the right word about that. I think he’s plenty smart enough to make that adjustment eventually.
Assuming his performance doesn’t radically drop off, I truly wouldn’t be suprised to see him come up in September just to whet his appetite. Hell, he might even get some meaningful at bats if Dunn and Griff get shipped out. And no, I don’t see how this could hurt him
I think we should compare Bruce’s minor league hit rate to these other stars minor league hit rates, not their major league hit rates.
Pujols MILB career 35%, best 36% in low A. (he struck out less than 10% of the time)
ARod MILB career 41%, best 45% in AAA.
Manny MILB career 40%, best 42% in AA & AAA.
Jeter MILB career 36%, best 43% in AA & low A.
Griffey MILB career 40%, best 41% A-ball.
Dunn MILB career 40%, best 44% in AA & 43% in AAA (the year he shot to the majors.)
Guerrero MILB career 39%, best 41% in A-ball.
D.Ortiz MILB career 41%, best 46% in AA.
Bill, I’d submit Wily Mo Pena as a guy who really rocketed the ball at low levels. I think he still hit the ball harder than anyone I’ve ever seen.
So far, he’s just better than the level. That’s a very, very good sign for a prospect.
Chris,
Wily Mo never really hit well at any stage in the minor leagues though. Pena had a career minor league OPS of .725 with a .412 slugging percentage.
I know. But he hit the thing a frickin ton when he did hit it.
What was WMP’s ISO in the minor leagues?
His Iso slugging was .160 in the minor leagues.
Chris…true, I saw Wily Mo hit a homer to LCF in Dayton in ‘04 (?) that still hasn’t come down…
Actually Bill I think it hit my house down here in Cincinnati sometime about 3 weeks ago.
Jay “The Boss” Bruce will win an MVP soem day.