You and i have disagreed (slightly) about how long it’s going to take to turn this club around, with me taking a more pessimistic view (hey, 52 years of following this organization will do that to you). Add to that that I simply have no faith in Krivsky to get appropriate value back for Dunn, and I’d much rather take the draft choices. Now if by some miracle he can get the Yanks to kick in a Joba Chamberlain, well…

Phil, I don’t think it’s as much of a slam-dunk as you indicate. Draft picks do take longer to reach the major leagues than pickups via trades, and that does hurt their value. And they do pose a larger financial risk because you have to pay the signing bonuses. Furthermore, there are a number of cases where a great return has been had from a mid-season trade.

I think the major finding from that study, at least as I interpreted the data, is that letting a class-A free agent player walk is a good option if you can’t get the high-quality prospects you’re looking for via trade. But if you can get impact prospects via trade, there’s no reason not to go that route. -j

No offense, Greg, but if you’re not going to actually research the topic, there’s little to discuss.

Please note that “rarely” does not equal “never”.

I barely have time to read through the entirety of your comments.

Deadline trades rarely return something useful long-term to the selling team. Because I believe this organization needs to rebuild, draft choices are far more viable for laying that foundation. And the data back me up.

When teams are selling something of value, you can get closer to the majors ready talent. Guillen and Boone for Harang and Claussen are good examples even though Claussen crashed and burned after a good rookie season. The Royals recently received Travis Buck and Mark Teahen for Carlos Beltran a couple of year ago. They are the starting catcher and starting RFer for the team. They are on the team faster than a comp pick would have likely made the roster.

I know I only point out a couple of antedotal examples, and the links provide more examples backing your story, but there are other factors in play including the amount of salary the buyers are forced to pickup.

And really, each case is unique. I wouldn’t want Krivsky to not use the phones with Dunn because he may not get fair value. If Dunn is traded, all this will be better analyzed to Dunn’s specific case with the names of the players received in return.

I’ll give you a quick hint there — of these guys, only Homer has a better-than-average shot at being useful next year. Every other one of those guys are middling, Grade C or worse prospects that are a dime a dozen. Look at any other organization in baseball, they all have these guys, and once in a blue moon one will pan out. One of McBeth, Salmon, Coutlangus and Bray will probably be a decent reliever but outside of that — there’s not much talent there.

I know you all want to stay optimistic, but outside of Bailey/Votto/Bruce, there’s nothing much of value in this system. And Bailey’s command is brutal, his FB velocity isn’t as advertised and his change-up is fringy. Votto’s solid, but he’s not a championship-level player. Bruce might be.

And to everyone who thinks that the Reds can help the rebuilding process by trading veterans — no team is going to give up anything of any value for anyone you’re talking about trading, outside of Dunn or Griffey or maybe Arroyo, and with the latter two you’d have to give a lot of cash in the deal. Weathers? Maybe another Grade C prospect. Conine? Lohse? Hatteberg? Here’s a hint — look what the Reds gave up to get the first two guys — practically nothing. That’s what you’ll get, or worse, for half a season of them.

Take off the blinders — this team is a disaster all-around. Be prepared for a few more 90-100 loss seasons. Even the Royals have a brighter future.

Actually, you’re quite wrong. Take a look at Justin’s blog entry here. Be sure to follow the links to the studies supporting the entry. Deadline trades rarely return something useful long-term to the selling team. Because I believe this organization needs to rebuild, draft choices are far more viable for laying that foundation. And the data back me up.

If Homer & Arroyo aren’t in the 2008 rotation AND Dunn is moved, then 2008 is going to be worse than 2007.

I’m obviously being too subtle. Of course Arroyo will be in the rotation barring injury. Whether he will be good or not is open to conjecture. I believe we’ve seen the best of Bronson in a Reds’ uni and from here on out he’ll show flashes of brilliance but settle in as a league-average or worse innings eater. useful, but not an arm upon which championships are built. His 2006 was the outlier. Everything else pretty much lives up to his career norms.

One hope is that now that Narron is gone he will improve if his workload is managed better. Jerry rode him hard. The flip side is he’s on the wrong side of 30.

I’m in favor of picking up Dunn’s option, but I sense I’m in a distinct minority among fans and management. So, yes, it’s entirely possible 2008 is going to be worse than 2007. This is what happens when an organization refuses to face reality.

I’m not sure why the source of the quote makes any difference if it’s true. I agree that a team in a rebuilding phase that needs to focus on player development (which is where the Reds are, like it or not), is not a team that can contend. To attempt to do so it to jeopardize the long term goal of continued contention .

The young, unproven pitching in the upper levels of this organization includes Homer, Dumatrait, Gardner, Fisher, McBeth, Salmon, Coutlangus, Bray, Medlock, Roenicke, Guevara, Livingston, Cueto…

Thanks for making my point. Lots of youth. Lots of potential. Nothing definite. Some building blocks in place but more are needed. This is the definition of rebuilding.

As for a change of heart about Narron since his firing that Preach hit on. Maybe he has a point, we tend to feel sorry for a guy who just lost his job. However, I think some of our empathy for Narron may stem from the fact that this is not a good team and its the GM’s responsibility to acquire the players that the manager has to work with. Krivsky, O’Brien and leatherpants did not do a good job in obtaining said players. I think that when K gets the boot, some of us will be alot closer to feeling like Narron got what was coming to him. Right now, I’m leaning toward Narron being the fall guy for a failed organization, top to bottom.

That would be a mistake, IMHO. Your previous comment of letting Dunn walk for an extra draft pick was Bowdenesque (ie not trading Soriano last year.) He’s either traded or has his option exercised. I’m guessing Krivsky is on a short leash, too, and there’s no way he moves Dunn unless it is for talent that will help the major league team in 2008.

I think it’s way too early to pencil Homer into the rotation yet. he’s got a huge learning curve in front of him. What we have is Harang and hope.

If Homer & Arroyo aren’t in the 2008 rotation AND Dunn is moved, then 2008 is going to be worse than 2007.

George Grande said something worthwhile on yesterday’s broadcast (amazing but true). He recalled something Billy Martin said when Grande was covering the Yankees. ‘You can’t develop and contend at the same time.” I believe that’s true. the reds need to develop and that takes time. they are not ready to contend.

If Billy Martin AND George Grande said it, I think I am FORCED to disagree on principle. The young, unproven pitching in the upper levels of this organization includes Homer, Dumatrait, Gardner, Fisher, McBeth, Salmon, Coutlangus, Bray, Medlock, Roenicke, Guevara, Livingston, Cueto, and apologies to anyone else I may have missed. They’ve got half a season to assess who can help in 2008 and fill the rest with $$ in the offseason.

Yes, but who else is dumb enough to pay $5M/year for a Castro clone? We would have better luck trading the real thing. He’s only scheduled to make $925K in ‘08.

They’ve got 3 LH hitting OFers

By winter that could be one LH OF. It almost certainly will be just 2.

The rotation will most surely be Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey

I think it’s way too early to pencil Homer into the rotation yet. he’s got a huge learning curve in front of him. What we have is Harang and hope.

I think we just have different ideas about what we’d like to see.It’s not that I don’t want to see them win next year. It’s that I’m only interested if that results from laying the foundation for continue winning, not a one-time, lightning-in-a-bottle thing.

George Grande said something worthwhile on yesterday’s broadcast (amazing but true). He recalled something Billy Martin said when Grande was covering the Yankees. ‘You can’t develop and contend at the same time.” I believe that’s true. the reds need to develop and that takes time. they are not ready to contend.

For what it is worth, Krivsky says that they did not talk to Girardi.

All starting 8 with the exception of 1st base is under contract next year. There’s been some issue of consistency offensively, but I don’t think offense has been the problem. If they had some consistency in the pitching department, the team would have a lot more wins.

A lot of folks complain about too many left-handed hitters, but I don’t think that’s the problem either.

They’ve got 3 LH hitting OFers, RH Hopper and RH Freel. They have 4 RH hitting IFers (BP,AG,EE,DR) and a platoon at 1st. The issue is that EdE isn’t slugging very well vs lefties (.316 slugging, yes slugging!) or righties (.419) and AGon is only slugging .319 vs lefties while slugging .521 vs righties.

I’d replace Moeller and Castro with offensive minded bench players.

The rotation will most surely be Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey. I think you can pretty much blow the rest of it up. Hold auditions amongst the youngest on the roster now and capable pitchers in AAA and AA, and spend the extra money they’ll have in the offseason on pitching.