Loading ...Looks like Bronson Arroyo and Kyle Lohse are switching spots in the rotation, so to speak:
The Reds moved Arroyo’s start up a day, from Saturday to Friday against the Cardinals, to keep him on an every-fifth-day schedule. Lohse and his 3-10 record were backed up to Saturday.
“I’m anxious to go out there because I’m finally feeling good, the way I want to feel,” Arroyo said. “I felt real sore after my last outing, and that’s good. When I have real good stuff, I’m always sore afterwards. When I don’t have good stuff, I could throw 100 innings in a row.”
And Lohse?
“I just do what I’m told. Pitch when I’m told. No story there,” he said.
Manager Jerry Narron ducked the issue of whether Lohse’s recent struggles played into the move and said merely said, “Bronson threw well the other day (in Seattle), and we’re just getting him back on his fifth day.”
They did that with Aaron Harang this week, too. Yesterday he was bumped up to pitch on “normal rest.”
I think the team should be taking advantage of the days off while they have them.
1 – They just spent went an entire month where they had 1 day off.
2 – The month before that they frequently skipped the #5 spot.
3 – Harang and Arroyo both are coming off career highs in starts, IP, and pitches thrown.
4 – Arroyo specifically has had issues this year that many contribute to getting worn down
The Reds are all but mathematically eliminated from the division race. Why beat your #1/2 long-term contract guys into the ground this year? No reason to risk shoulder/elbow surgeries in a year like this. Take advantage of having 5 healthy starters and let everyone in the rotation have an extra day off when there is a scheduled off day.
Only in Cincinnati would switching rotation spots for pitchers who are a combined 5-19 be considered a change. Either way, they still suck.
i don’t get the complaint john, no one said it was supposed to make the reds win, they’re just doing what they think is best for the pitchers.
greg, i think you’re absolutely right though, and i read a gammons article to that effect last year that i’m surprised didn’t recieve more coverage.
his point was that oakland’s starters have done really well for a while now, and during that time they’ve said that they’re fifth starter was an equal part of the rotation and never skipped him when they had an off day, thus giving the rest of the rotation more rest over the year.
i guess part of that is having a rotation deep enough that you feel alright running your 5 out there every 5th day, but it made a lot of sense to me.
Since this is a pitching thread, this from Jayson Stark’s latest Rumblings and Grumblings. If Robothal is Loella Parsons and Gammo is Hedda Hopper, Stark must be Mary Hart of E! when it comes to insider gossip. Still…
Scouts who have seen Reds phenom Homer Bailey since his call-up have been shocked by the lack of life on his fastball.
“I saw him in the Florida State League last year, and he was throwing 98 [mph],” said one scout. “Then I saw him in the big leagues this year, and he averaged 91-92. At 97-98, he can get by with not commanding his [off-speed] stuff. But at 91-92, when his other stuff isn’t there, he’s just an ordinary guy.”
File under FWIW, but the scout’s words certainly describe Homer’s Tuesday outing.
I’ve never heard crap about Bailey throwing 98.
i have to agree with the scout on this one. much to my extreme disappointment homer looks a lot more like matt belisle than ryan/clemens/wood/becket who he was be likened to in the minors.
is he hurt? is he tired?
And scouts, just like stat-heads, need to be cautious of drawing conclusions based on sample size.
I stand corrected. From Kevin Goldstein’s Reds Top 10 list, circa November ‘06:
“The total package: a classic Texas power pitcher whose heat sits in the mid-90s, touches 98 mph.”
Now, “touches” doesn’t at all match up to “averages.” Even if it did, why would some scout believe that Bailey had lost 6 mph in a year? That makes no sense.
Since we’re talking pitching, and one of the names named in possible Dunn trades is Scott Linebrink – check out his K rate for this year. He’s striking out only 4.3 per 9 IP, after being at 7.0 or above the past three years. The SD paper had a note about this today, and I find it really scary, if the Reds are thinking about trading for him.
i don’t get the sample size comment?
GregD: I couldn’t agree more. What makes matters worse is that Lohse won’t even be here next year so if you are gonna overuse anyone at this point in the season its him. That is unless Krivsky wants to deal Lohse and hide him from scouts.
i don’t get the sample size comment?
The scout is drawing his conclusions from 19⅔ IP at the big league level. Small sample size.
OTOH, Chris is drawing his conclusions from 29 IP extrapolated to an estimated full season for Linebrink.
Sauce for the goose and all.
It’s too early to go all Chicken Little over Homer. But as I’ve said before, it’s not too early to be concerned over the trend in Homer’s peripherals.
Now, “touches” doesn’t at all match up to “averages.”
The scout didn’t say Homer averaged 98. To average 98, a pitcher would have to top 100 consistently to balance those mid-90s pitches that he would inevitably throw. The scout may have meant that Homer could reach back for a 98 MPH fastball when he needed it. That would be analogous to “touches”.
Even if the scout is correct about Homer “averaging 91-92″ at this level, he still is not saying that Bailey has lost 6 MPH off the fastball because he isn’t saying that every fastball in the minors hit 98. You would need to know what Homer averaged in the minors before you could draw conclusions about how much he’s “lost” in those 19⅔ innings. It’s possible he averaged 92 in the minors with the occasions that hit hit 98 being too few to skew that appreciably.
Throw the numbers out and the conclusion, in limited observations, is that the fastball he’s shown so far isn’t good enough to get by without Homer being on top of his off-speed repertoire. I think that’s pretty much been born out by the results.
Chris: I hadn’t heard Linebrink rumors this year. Last year he was getting the most play. I see the Dodgers as a better fit for Dunn considering the recent switch of Nomar to 3rd in hopes of better power at 1b. I’ve heard that Krivsky is holding out for Billingsly.
If a scout hears/reads/sees that a pitcher throws X mph, and he sees one game (or even three) where that pitcher is throwing “X-4,” he ought to wait before drawing any broad conclusions. Hell, the same goes for command, pitch effectiveness, anything.
Drawing any sort of conclusions after 3 games is just silly.
Phil, I wasn’t trying to over-parse that scout’s statement, but I think your interpretation is just too generous. If he wasn’t implying that Bailey “regularly” threw near 98, the statement is meaningless.
“I saw him in the Florida State League last year, and he was throwing 98 [mph],” said one scout. “Then I saw him in the big leagues this year, and he averaged 91-92. At 97-98, he can get by with not commanding his [off-speed] stuff. But at 91-92, when his other stuff isn’t there, he’s just an ordinary guy.”
He’s expressly stating that there’s a significant difference between the 2006 and 2007 fastballs, and that the current version (‘91-92) isn’t enough. The other half of that statement is that he was throwing much harder last year — and he says Bailey was “throwing 97-98,” which implies “reguarly,” to me. The scout doesn’t expressly say that Bailey “averaged” 97-98 last year, but the sentence structure implies it.
Point taken about the Linebrink sample size, but I’m more comfortable drawing conclusions about 40% drop in K-Rate over a half-season, even if it’s only 29 IP. At least compared to judging a pitcher’s velocity in his first 4 starts in the bigs.
i was just talking about the bailey sample size, which to me is fine, since i feel like i’d been thinking the same thing as the scout. I’ve known that he threw 95+ and up to 98 for years. I’ve watched all of his starts, and he’s significantly lower than that, consistantly.
the guy does throw lots of pitches in one game you know. it’s not like we’re talking about walking by the cage and seeing 98 on the gun, and then walking by a tv months later and seeing 91 and saying “hey!”
in four games he hasn’t really come close to the velocity i thought he had, that’s all i’m saying. if that’s where he’s supposed to be, so be it, but i wonder if he’s hurt or tired.
Chris,
You could be right and I’m being too generous with my interpretation of the scout’s comments. But I still “don’t think he’s implying that Homer was always sitting at 98.
Not trying to over-parse, but “regularly” and “averaging” don’t mean the same thing. To say that he threw 98 regularly is somewhat fuzzy because it could mean he hit that on the gun once or twice every game. So he “regularly” hit 98 because he did it every time he took the mound, if only once or so. Average, as I discussed, means something else entirely. You’re a pretty stat-savvy guy for a lawyer, so I’m thinking you know that.
(My MS is in mathematics, so I get to do a little one-upsmanship here. You can bitch-slap me when I try to interpret the law.)
Perhaps a better interpretation is that when Homer can ratchet it up to 98 or so, he can get away with less command of his off speed stuff. But at 91 or so, where he seems to be sitting now, he can’t. Of course, how often he can reach back for that giddy-up on the fast ball is uncertain.
but I’m more comfortable drawing conclusions about 40% drop in K-Rate over a half-season, even if it’s only 29 IP. At least compared to judging a pitcher’s velocity in his first 4 starts in the bigs.
Maybe so, but there’s no significant difference in ~20 IP and 29IP. I’m more comfortable with small sample sizes talking about trends as I have with Homer’s BB/9 and K/9. The problem with the extrapolation on Linebrink, besides the number of innings, is that it doesn’t tell you anything about the trend in his K rate. Is the number low because he started out at his usual level and is regressing? Or is it low because he took awhile to get untracked and is now moving toward his historical level of K/9? Or is he just at that level at the moment? The first and third cases are cause for alarm. The second may mean he could be picked up at a bargain price, which isn’t Adam Dunn.
(BTW, if I seem a little crabby I had a precancerous mole removed from the small of my back this AM. The sutures are deucedly uncomfortable, although I’m attempting to ameliorate that with a few martinis. Apologies in advance.)
also, looked around and found this from lonnie wheeler, so i don’t think this is out of thin air:
I’d been a little underwhelmed by Bailey’s velocity in the first two starts. For the most part, his fastballs had hovered between 88 and 93 mph — which isn’t bad, but isn’t what we’d been led to believe, either.
It didn’t set him apart. Maybe it was the change in rhythm and atmosphere from the minor leagues. Maybe it was the mound at Great American Ball Park. Maybe it was a slow gun.
I think the velocity question is pretty clear, sample size or not. I saw 96 once or twice in the first start and I saw 97 ONCE in the second start. Although it was by no means average, he was almost always at 91-92, which I was comfortable with. The Phillies start was a different story. I don’t remember seeing it at 90 and sometimes I wondered if he was trying to throw a changeup or a fastball.
I’m glad Lonnie pointed out that a lot of variants could be at play. He’s started in the major leagues 4 times. Watching the Phillies start, all I could think about was how uncomfortable he was. Could’ve been the heat, could’ve been the atmosphere, I donno. But I think once he settles down and adjusts, he might get back to his old self. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that he’s not hurt, but I do think something’s off.
also, am I the only person that thinks Kyle Lohse has been a disrespectful, snyde a-hole the entire time he’s been with us? He might be ok sometimes, but I’m ready for his replacement.
I saw Homer pitch in Dayton 2 years ago and I don\’t remember him being over 95-96…at least not that I can remember. I wonder how much guns vary from park to park.