Loading ...I don’t usually like to bump the game thread (go here to comment on today’s game vs. the Rox), but this is big news in Redleg Nation. It’s semi-official now: Homer Bailey will be making his major league debut on Saturday against the Indians.
Is anyone not excited?
I think it’s an outstanding move. Some people say he’s not ready. To that, I say: nonsense. Yes, his walk rate is a little high in AAA, but why keep him down there when he can get major league experience right now? The Reds are playing for nothing, so why not let Bailey get some low-pressure big league starts to begin his career.
If he comes up and has an ERA of 4.50 for the rest of the year, I say “GREAT.” That would be better than we’d get out of the fifth spot in the rotation otherwise.
This is going to be an unfair comparison, but note that Greg Maddux came up as a 20-year-old with Chicago. His ERA that year was 5.52. The next year, he pitched the entire season for the Cubs; his ERA was 5.61. The following season, it was 3.18, and the rest is history.
As long as the Reds don’t abuse his arm up here, Bailey is as likely to progress in Cincinnati as much as he would in Louisville, and maybe (probably?) more. The kid has to learn to get major league hitters out sometime. Now is the time to get started.
This is the best Reds pitching prospect of my lifetime. I’m ready for Act I.
Tom Glavine at age 21: 5.54 ERA
Tom Glavine at age 22: 4.56 ERA
Roger Clemens at age 21: 4.32 ERA
Roger Clemens at age 22: 3.29 ERA
Great move, as far as I’m concerned. I’d like to see Hatteberg or Conine dealt to NY (they just put Mientkewsldhaklsdjhf on the DL along with Giambi), and Votto brought up to Cincinnati, as well.
I’m unsure. I guess I’ve been brow-beaten enough by the “scouting reports” that say he’s “not ready.” The good news, as I understand it, is that since it’s after June 1, there’s no risk of Bailey being eligible for arbitration until after the 2010 season.
Even if he’s not quite ready, what are we risking? Let him learn in the majors against the hitters he’ll be facing for the next fifteen years.
The Reds can avoid 2010 (or 2011?) for arbitration by signing him to a multi-year deal before then.
I\’m not saying I\’m not excited to see Bailey\’s debut and not saying I don\’t think he\’ll do well, eventually, though he\’ll struggle at time.
I just don\’t understand sending Livingston down after a good start, when they were going to need another starter on Saturday.
What kind of message are they sending?
Bailey can only really learn in the majors. This can only be a good thing. No pressure to start off will help him build confidence. Additionally for as awful as we have been…..less then 10 games back.
i’m in full agreement with chad, all of this outcry about protecting poor little homer’s confidence is just stupid.
He’s going to learn more about getting big league hitters out by facing them. If the scouts don’t think his stuff is big league ready, fine, but i don’t see how dominating AAA is going to get him closer than just coming up.
plus if he comes up and energizes the team maybe they make a run. if not, at least the fans have something to be excited about. nothing to lose in my opinion, with at least a decent amount to gain.
that is a good point bill, i thought livingston would stick for sure after his last start.
the explanation they gave made some sense (that they wanted an arm for the pen while they didn’t need a fifth starter) but all teams have to deal with that.
Bill, I think Krivsky planned to bring Homer to the big league club in June, regardless. This isn’t just a snap decision. Chris’ point about the arbitration clock points to this scenario, as well.
They sent Livingston down because they had planned to send Livingston down, regardless of how he pitched, so that they could have a reliever while they waited for Homer.
I would guess that Krivsky decided before the season that Homer would come up in June, unless Homer performed poorly at AAA.
Will Jerry Narron be around to see Bailey pitch in his MLB debut?
As long as the Reds don’t abuse his arm up here
This is my biggest concern. I want to see him on a strict pitch count and innings count. If he clicks and with this bullpen, Jerry’s going to be tempted to let him go deep into games.
I know that it’s a different regime,a different time and a somewhat different game, but I watched Gary Nolan log 226+ innings as a 19-year-old and Don Gullet do the same as a 20-year-old. And we know how that turned out. Fortunately, the Reds seemed to learn their lesson and didn’t push Mario Soto over the 220-inning threshold until he was 23.
I really don\’t worry about that, Phil.
I honestly think that Bailey will be on a STRICT pitch count, almost to the point where Jerry Narron would be fired for letting him go over it in a no-hit bid.
Let’s hope so, Chris. Homer Bailey is the most valuable property the Reds own right now, and chewing up his arm during a mediocre season is a fool’s pursuit. As long as this move doesn’t start his arbitration/free agent clock any faster than doing the same thing in August, let’s give it a go.
Personally, I think this is the only way Homer is going to improve as a pitcher. He can get away with so many mistakes in AAA right now because of just how good his pure stuff is that he won’t learn until some of his mistakes get hit hard. That will only happen in the majors. His walk rate concerns some people, but the difference from his first 5 starts and his last 5 starts is over a walk less per 9 innings, so its trending in the right direction.
As for hurting his confidence, I am not worried about that. Everything I have ever read about him says he is one of the most mentally tough guys around and is about as confident as they come in terms of his pitching ability.
I hope that bringing Bailey up will work toward changing the attitude on this team. They just seem to be sleepwalking through this season.
I really don’t worry about that, Phil.
Of course not. You don’t have to because I’m doing the worrying for you.
I know it’s a tad irrational, but this organization doesn’t exactly have a stellar track record in developing pitching over the last few decades. Just in the recent past, the farm system was better known for producing arm injuries instead of arms.
If the purpose of the call-up is to get Homer experience facing big-league hitters (or in the case of most of the NL, AAAA hitters) then that’s OK. But if there is any thought that Homer is going to help salvage 2007, then I’m worried – very worried.